Two By Two

I've been having some problems getting this posted this morning. I'm not sure why, but it's been a pain in the proverbial. I wrote out my thoughts on the two races I'm playing in and then it wouldn't save the bloody post! Hopefully this will work, if not then I'm giving up as I haven't got time to piss about on here all day.

A quick footnote on last night first of all. I had a chat with a friend pre-racing, he is actually one of my nh advisors (his account shows 8 bets so far, 6 placed at around 4/1, one fell at the last when looking like winning, and a winner at 4/1) and he's showing promise to say the least!) My comments on the race were something like this: "I'm not having an account bet mate, because there's only one line of form for each of the ones I like and that's not enough, but I reckon the market is the wrong way around. I reckon Waldorf should be favourite and I have to give Moffatts a chance as well. They seem to be backing two or three in this race that I can't have, they're exposed and I'd be amazed if the jolly, Waldorf or Ergo wasn't better than them." I ended up messing about with a few quid trading and I made about £200 on the the race. Of course this doesn't go on the account, I was only messing about, but imagine how pissed off I was when the 16/1 shot absolutely bolted up. I have to stick to my overall plan, but just every now and then even I think "if only I was a little less regimented".

Moving on to todays action at Lingfiled where I wouldn't be surprised if one or two thought I was playing in a much hotter affair than I usually get involved with, but hopefully the reasons will become clear. My first selection runs in the Winter Derby, where I want to oppose two of the front three in the market. The jolly has to prove he stays in this class of race and at the price I felt duty-bound to look elsewhere. Then you have the Gosden (possibly my favourite flat trainer) horse, one time Derby fancy, but from what I can make out this has already finished behind one of todays rivals over c and d and I see no obvious reason why the form should be reversed. I was left with two that I liked, but a huge difference in price and running styles made the decision easy. Re Barolo has to have a chance, but the odds reflect this and he'll possibly need luck in running. At a much bigger price, I'm backing

305 Lingfield SUITS ME 1 point each way at 10/1 (Bet 365 BOG and 1/4 odds a place)

who has a similar form chance to Re Barolo, but is twice the price and much more likely to get a trouble free journey. Suits Me races prominently so the draw is ideal for him. Looking at their form, the last time they met Re Barolo came out in front when in receipt of 3lb. Previously, off level weight, Suits Me finished in front of Re Barolo in a really decent time when coming second behind Dansant. With reasons to oppose three at the front of the market, Suits Me looks value in what is still a tough race to call. At the price I'll take my chance.

Just over an hour later and once again I'm taking on two at the front of the market. Initially I thought I'd possibly be backing Formation who won for me back in February when putting together an identicle performance to his win the time before. He looks to have a chance in here but there is a question mark about the trip. I'm not saying he won't get it, just that he needs to prove it and that he can be as effective at it as he is at 10 furlongs. Then we look at the jolly. This one has won a Class 3 event at Wolverhampton. For me, this is a better race at a different venue, so up in the handicap I think the fav has to improve again and be as effective around here as he was at Wolverhampton. Again, I'm not saying he can't or won't, just that he has it to do. There are one or two others in here I just don't think are good enough and then we have my selection.

415 Lingfield SGT SCHULTZ 2 points each way at 11/2 (Boyle BOG) or 6/1 (VC)
My selection has a tremendous record around this venue. Back in January his performance in finishing third over 10 furlongs was every bit as good as anything Formation has achieved in his two wins in my opinion. More importantly we can add in the fact that my selection is a proven performer in this grade, at this track and over this trip. Furthermore, if you look through the form book I think you'll find this is his time of year, indeed he won this race last year. All in all, I make him odds on to at least make the frame, so at the prices I have to get involved.