Confidence Is The Key

In my opinion confidence is the key to successful betting. If you have total confidence in the source of the selection, as I have in my advisors on nh and turf flat and indeed in myself when it comes to aw, then you will stake properly and consistently. It is much easier to stick to a plan if you believe things will work out long term. Different people have different ways of protecting themselves from the losing runs which inevitably come along. Some will trade every selection, I prefer each way betting. I know the results on the right are an extremely small sample of my bets but I think they're a fair indication of what's likely to happen over the long term. I think you'll find that by being selective and by betting each way on occasion I have kept the longest run without a return down to six bets. I think that has happened just once so far and it was almost immediately followed by a run of five bets which produced a return. I understand some will say that there hasn't really been any pressure on me yet because things have gone well, but that's not absolutely correct. Only three weeks ago I was almost 40 points down on the year overall, but it really didn't bother me because of the trust and faith I have in the selective approach we use and the disciplined way we stick to our plan. Someone suggested to me that Friday was a big day for me because I had two bets on the sand, but it wasn't a big deal at all as far as I was concerned. Each individual bet is almost irrelevant in the overall scheme of things, regardless of the result, because I just see it as a stepping stone to where I want to end up. I know I'll back more losers than winners, I know I'll have good runs and bad runs, but I am absolutely convinced that by being selective and disciplined I will achieve my ultimate target. As a result of this overall confidence in the plan and belief in the selection process, I do not feel under any real pressure when things aren't going so well. I just see the tough times as an inconvenience which have to be endured so we remember how to appreciate the good times when they come along. Where my view would be different is if we were to play in a lot more races. Then I can imagine the pressure increasing simply because the more bets you have, the more losers you'll back and inevitably the more you'll suffer from long losing runs. I know one very good judge of the form book who prefers this approach and no doubt he has absolute belief in his methods and where they'll take him, but losing runs of 30 and 20 with a few winners in between over a two month period are definitely not for me. In no way is this a criticism of him or his approach, I'm sure he'll end up making money long term just the same as I will. It just shows there are different ways to approach the game and different ways to achieve a positive result. I've been keeping tabs on JP's blog during the Festival and I know I could never have as many bets as he's had in such a short period, but that's his way of playing the game and in the long term it suits him and makes him money.

Whichever approach you take, being selective, betting often or trading, I wish you all the best. I've got the rest of the day off now with no aw action taking place but one of my nh experts has been on with a selection so it's not going to be a blank day on the overall account after all!