Last Time Out

I backed Stand Guard when it won at Wolverhampton and almost expected to be backing the horse again today in the first at Kempton. The race has the right look to it for someone like me, with their being reasons to take on a relatively short priced favourite in Lake Poet. Now there is no disputing the fact that the jolly could well win, but where is the value in backing it at around the 5/2 mark? I have to look elsewhere and Stand Guard was my starting point. However, the more I looked at the race the more I convinced myself that I had to back another one in the race. My selection is today running off a winning mark, has run 20 times on the all weather, finishing in the first three 12 times. The record in class 4 events (or better) over 10 furlongs reads, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 12th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, 5th and 4th. During the last 6 runs mentioned in that sequence the 2nd placing came when running in a class 2 event over todays c and d. The time the race was run in was really good and my selection split a pair of high 90's rated horses. That suggests to me that my selection is as effective here as any of todays rivals, none of whom have achieved that quick a time over c and d. Last year my selection ran over 12 furlongs once before winning next time out when running back over 10 furlongs. Guess what? Last time out my selection ran over 12 furlongs. Now I'm hoping that was just to blow away the cobwebs and that they're going to have a go today because I think if

230 Kempton Mafeking 1 point each way at 14/1 (Ladbrokes), 12/1 (Boyle BOG)

runs up to somewhere near his best then he's way over priced at the odds available. The selection is entered in a few days time at Lingfield in a similar event over 10 furlongs. Let's hope the idea is to go there with a penalty and try to follow up a victory today rather than use today as another stepping stone towards that race. We'll know soon enough.