There are no bets for us today and nothing really appealed so a day off and our time will be spent in the sun with our families.
Just a quick word about the last few bets, yesterdays selections all ran very poorly. The first two were very well supported but there were no real excuses for either and both ran disappointingly. The later selection was a massive drifter and after watching the race I think we can summise that others nearer to the horses source had a better idea of the way that this one was going to run....enough said!!
Friday saw a welcome winning selection in the shape of Sand Repeal, well backed and running a game race to repel allcomers in the home straight. Unfortunately the other selection didn't run its race and whilst the ground at Newcastle deteriorated and visibility was reduced to next to nothing, the horse has winning form on soft ground so no real excuses.
Lets hope we can start to turn things around sooner rather than later!!!
Sunday 28 June 2009
Saturday 27 June 2009
Apologies...
As some of you will have noticed we had a 1PT EW bet on Foundation Room on Thursday which finished a disappointing 5th. Unfortunately as has been the case of late we were unable to get chance to post on the blog but hopefully things will improve on that score in the near future.
Friday 26 June 2009
Friday 26th June
Three bets today and some views on other races we've had a look at as well. First of all the bets we've placed.
445 Folkestone SAND REPEAL 1 point eachway at 4/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
825 Newcastle HANDSOME FALCON 1 point eachway at 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
and a 1 point eachway double at 4/1 and 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
Sand Repeal is today running off a winning mark and is a previous course and distance scorer. Three runs back Sand Repeal went well over course and distance and wasn't beaten that far in a race which has produced the winners in four subsequent races. Conditions today should be ideal, the jockey booking is a positive, and we believe Sand Repeal is set to run a big race. Of his rivals Dazzling Begum is 0/9 at the distance, Generous Lad looks well handicapped but is 1/20 at the distance and 1/21 on turf, Good Effect is 0/10 at the distance, 1/15 on turf and 0/5 on a good to firm surface, Karmei is not good enough, Linby hasn't had a run this season, Mid Valley is 1/18 at the distance and 1/14 on turf and Phoenix Hill doesn't look good enough. You have to respect the connections of Pinnacle Point and Rough Sketch but Sand Repeal is our idea of the most likely winner.
This evening at Newcastle our second bet runs in a race where three horses were of initial interest. Rightly or wrongly the three we concentrated on in this race were Minority Report, Orpen Wide and of course the selection Handsome Falcon. Orpen Wide is 2/3 at the course and conditions would seem ideal for him, but he is running off a career high winning mark and at 7 years of age we think he could probably do with some respite from the handicapper. Minority Report is without doubt well handicapped and if in the mood with a first-time visor fitted he could easily win this race, but we think the most likely winner is Handsome Falcon.
There were a few other races we looked at and whilst we may trade one or two of these we decided against further proper bets.
In the 325 at Doncaster we would take two against the field, Tiger Dream 11/2 and Oh So Saucy 8/1.
The 640 at Chester is a tough looking handicap with two non-runners leaving 15 to go to post, but Glenridding 9/2, Zabeel Tower 12/1 and H Harrison 16/1 are the three we'd want to keep on our side if getting involved.
In the 840 at Newmarket an old friend (lol) tries again. If running up to anywhere near his best Wiggy Smith would be massive at this morning's 12/1.
Finally we felt Brassini, short at 2/1, looked to have everything in his favour in the 850 at Chester. Just too short for us.
So there you have it, our thoughts on the day and our bets as placed this morning. Good luck if you get involved.
445 Folkestone SAND REPEAL 1 point eachway at 4/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
825 Newcastle HANDSOME FALCON 1 point eachway at 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
and a 1 point eachway double at 4/1 and 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
Sand Repeal is today running off a winning mark and is a previous course and distance scorer. Three runs back Sand Repeal went well over course and distance and wasn't beaten that far in a race which has produced the winners in four subsequent races. Conditions today should be ideal, the jockey booking is a positive, and we believe Sand Repeal is set to run a big race. Of his rivals Dazzling Begum is 0/9 at the distance, Generous Lad looks well handicapped but is 1/20 at the distance and 1/21 on turf, Good Effect is 0/10 at the distance, 1/15 on turf and 0/5 on a good to firm surface, Karmei is not good enough, Linby hasn't had a run this season, Mid Valley is 1/18 at the distance and 1/14 on turf and Phoenix Hill doesn't look good enough. You have to respect the connections of Pinnacle Point and Rough Sketch but Sand Repeal is our idea of the most likely winner.
This evening at Newcastle our second bet runs in a race where three horses were of initial interest. Rightly or wrongly the three we concentrated on in this race were Minority Report, Orpen Wide and of course the selection Handsome Falcon. Orpen Wide is 2/3 at the course and conditions would seem ideal for him, but he is running off a career high winning mark and at 7 years of age we think he could probably do with some respite from the handicapper. Minority Report is without doubt well handicapped and if in the mood with a first-time visor fitted he could easily win this race, but we think the most likely winner is Handsome Falcon.
There were a few other races we looked at and whilst we may trade one or two of these we decided against further proper bets.
In the 325 at Doncaster we would take two against the field, Tiger Dream 11/2 and Oh So Saucy 8/1.
The 640 at Chester is a tough looking handicap with two non-runners leaving 15 to go to post, but Glenridding 9/2, Zabeel Tower 12/1 and H Harrison 16/1 are the three we'd want to keep on our side if getting involved.
In the 840 at Newmarket an old friend (lol) tries again. If running up to anywhere near his best Wiggy Smith would be massive at this morning's 12/1.
Finally we felt Brassini, short at 2/1, looked to have everything in his favour in the 850 at Chester. Just too short for us.
So there you have it, our thoughts on the day and our bets as placed this morning. Good luck if you get involved.
Tuesday 23 June 2009
Blog Update....
It has been a very frustrating time of late and as most of you are probably aware there has been a bit of a lull in proceedings with both the selections and the blog updates. As I mentioned in one of the latest posts we have had to take a different approach to things due to Mick's personal circumstances and not a lot is going to change there for the foreseeable. However I am still in contact with Mick and he is still getting some time to look at the cards but it is impossible for him to commit to anything. On the other hand I have had a very busy last week or so and with work and family issues intervening I have had very little time to really get stuck into the form study. Things should have eased off a little now though and I expect the blog and selections to get back to where we were a couple of weeks back.
We have put a lot of time and effort into the blog over the last few months and whilst the results of late have been a little frustrating we are not a million miles off the mark and I'm certain that we will be able to push on and start moving the P & L upwards and hopefully start hitting a bit more consistency. One of the things that we are learning is just how difficult it is to stake the selections and also making the right call on certain horses. We have discussed plenty of winners between us but dismissed them for one reason or another and then been hugely frustrated with some of the selections which we have put on the account. Clearly when we get this sorted out it can only prove to be more profitable.
This brings me nicely onto a little change which we will be looking to implement in the next few days. One of the biggest difficulties we have is being in a position to send out the emails, texts and update the blog and this was evident last Wednesday. I had a meeting in London and spent 2 and half hours studying the form on the train on the way down. I had already identified one or two that I liked the night before and decided to have 2PTS each way on Moneycantbuymelove in the last race at Ascot. I spoke to Mick and told him that I'd backed it and he asked if I want it texting out as a bet. This is where the problems start as I was not in a position to send out the email nor update the blog and as there are several people who are on the email list but don't receive texts I decided it was unfair as not everybody would be able to receive the information. The horse went off a well backed 9/2 favourite and ran out a comfortable winner.....Yes we both made some decent money on it but it was highly frustrating that it hadn't gone on the blog account and as a result we have decided to introduce an alternative means of people receiving the info. There will be an update on the blog when we are in a position to introduce it but basically we will be offering a daily message which will be posted on a normal mobile number and will be updated each day by 1pm. If there are bets they will be highlighted on this and if there is any need for a call back later in the day then this will be passed on via the message. Anybody can call this number and it will not cost anything if you are on a mobile contract. We don't believe that we can be any fairer than this and the emphasis will now be on the individual to ensure that they get the selections if they so desire. I will still try and update the blog on a regular basis but this change should enable us to work round our current issues with time whilst still getting the selections across to those who wish to receive them. There will be a section provided on the blog in the next few days which will have all the necessary information required.
Sorry for going on so long but just wanted to reiterate that MIP is still very much a work in progress and looking forward to finding plenty of winners over the coming months.
If anybody has any queries at all please get in touch and I'll be happy to discuss any of the above with you.
Regards
Gags
We have put a lot of time and effort into the blog over the last few months and whilst the results of late have been a little frustrating we are not a million miles off the mark and I'm certain that we will be able to push on and start moving the P & L upwards and hopefully start hitting a bit more consistency. One of the things that we are learning is just how difficult it is to stake the selections and also making the right call on certain horses. We have discussed plenty of winners between us but dismissed them for one reason or another and then been hugely frustrated with some of the selections which we have put on the account. Clearly when we get this sorted out it can only prove to be more profitable.
This brings me nicely onto a little change which we will be looking to implement in the next few days. One of the biggest difficulties we have is being in a position to send out the emails, texts and update the blog and this was evident last Wednesday. I had a meeting in London and spent 2 and half hours studying the form on the train on the way down. I had already identified one or two that I liked the night before and decided to have 2PTS each way on Moneycantbuymelove in the last race at Ascot. I spoke to Mick and told him that I'd backed it and he asked if I want it texting out as a bet. This is where the problems start as I was not in a position to send out the email nor update the blog and as there are several people who are on the email list but don't receive texts I decided it was unfair as not everybody would be able to receive the information. The horse went off a well backed 9/2 favourite and ran out a comfortable winner.....Yes we both made some decent money on it but it was highly frustrating that it hadn't gone on the blog account and as a result we have decided to introduce an alternative means of people receiving the info. There will be an update on the blog when we are in a position to introduce it but basically we will be offering a daily message which will be posted on a normal mobile number and will be updated each day by 1pm. If there are bets they will be highlighted on this and if there is any need for a call back later in the day then this will be passed on via the message. Anybody can call this number and it will not cost anything if you are on a mobile contract. We don't believe that we can be any fairer than this and the emphasis will now be on the individual to ensure that they get the selections if they so desire. I will still try and update the blog on a regular basis but this change should enable us to work round our current issues with time whilst still getting the selections across to those who wish to receive them. There will be a section provided on the blog in the next few days which will have all the necessary information required.
Sorry for going on so long but just wanted to reiterate that MIP is still very much a work in progress and looking forward to finding plenty of winners over the coming months.
If anybody has any queries at all please get in touch and I'll be happy to discuss any of the above with you.
Regards
Gags
Tuesday 16 June 2009
Royal Ascot Here We Come.....
Well unfortunately not literally but we do have a selection today!
There is one bet for us today so far:
2.30 ASCOT - 2PT WIN - AQLAAM (available at 11/1 with VC Bet, Lads, Corals, Sporting & Stan James)
Today sees the pinnacle of the flat season with the meeting at Royal Ascot. The racing is always highly competitive and the racing sees all the top class horses competing against one another for the fantastic prize money on offer. Todays card looked difficult as you would expect but we believe that the selection offers a bit of value and warrants a bet.
This race revolves around the Godolphin runner Gladiatorus which is having it's first run for the trainer today. They have kept the faith with the regular jockey and Frankie rides the second string Alexandros. This horse has been producing some awesome times on the clock over the last few months at Nad Al Sheba and has stepped up from handicap company to Group 1 and blown the opposition away with some fantastic front running performances. On official ratings it is the clear pick but it remains to be seen whether a straight mile will suit this one as well as the left hand bends of NAS and at the prices of 5/2 has got to be taken on. Clearly if it is as good as they think it could win this comfortably but we have our doubts and are happy to oppose it.
The next two in the betting are Paco Boy and Main Aim. We believe that there are stamina doubts about both of these today and feel that 7 furlongs would be much more up their street. Paco Boy has run some decent races abut 4/1 about a horse which is yet to prove it gets a truly run mile is on the short side and worth opposing today. Main Aim has been sent off favourite for every race but only on its last two starts has it shown the ability connections believed it capable of. Those two wins whilst impressive on the eye have come in pretty poor races and at 4/1 this is too short for us.
Alexandros was an unlucky loser in the Lockinge Stakes a few weeks back when Frankie lost his whip but whilst it has got some decent form on fast ground we believe that it acts better with cut in the ground and could come up short today.
Cesare is an admirable horse who is very consistent but not sure it is really up to Group 1 class and expect it to find at least one or two too good today.
Arabian Gleam and Dream Eater are held by a couple of these today and hard to see them being good enough, which leaves us with our selection Aqlaam.
Aqlaam was very impressive last year when winning the Jersey Stakes over 7F and the sky looked to be the limit for this horse. It had a setback after that race and didn't run again until the Lockinge Stakes this year where it finished 10th of 11 and was well beaten. Strictly on that run it has no chance today however this horse wants fast ground and it would have needed the run that day. If you consider that Haggas rates this as the best horse in his yard and forgive its last run for the reasons mentioned, then at 11/1 this looks overpriced. There is a chance that it won't get the mile trip, but we believe it will, and the breeding certainly suggests that it should. Happy to play up a few points on this one today in the hope that it returns to the form of last season and that the favourite has been overrated.
There is a possiblity of a bet elsewhere this evening and as always we will let you know if that's the case.
Good Luck
There is one bet for us today so far:
2.30 ASCOT - 2PT WIN - AQLAAM (available at 11/1 with VC Bet, Lads, Corals, Sporting & Stan James)
Today sees the pinnacle of the flat season with the meeting at Royal Ascot. The racing is always highly competitive and the racing sees all the top class horses competing against one another for the fantastic prize money on offer. Todays card looked difficult as you would expect but we believe that the selection offers a bit of value and warrants a bet.
This race revolves around the Godolphin runner Gladiatorus which is having it's first run for the trainer today. They have kept the faith with the regular jockey and Frankie rides the second string Alexandros. This horse has been producing some awesome times on the clock over the last few months at Nad Al Sheba and has stepped up from handicap company to Group 1 and blown the opposition away with some fantastic front running performances. On official ratings it is the clear pick but it remains to be seen whether a straight mile will suit this one as well as the left hand bends of NAS and at the prices of 5/2 has got to be taken on. Clearly if it is as good as they think it could win this comfortably but we have our doubts and are happy to oppose it.
The next two in the betting are Paco Boy and Main Aim. We believe that there are stamina doubts about both of these today and feel that 7 furlongs would be much more up their street. Paco Boy has run some decent races abut 4/1 about a horse which is yet to prove it gets a truly run mile is on the short side and worth opposing today. Main Aim has been sent off favourite for every race but only on its last two starts has it shown the ability connections believed it capable of. Those two wins whilst impressive on the eye have come in pretty poor races and at 4/1 this is too short for us.
Alexandros was an unlucky loser in the Lockinge Stakes a few weeks back when Frankie lost his whip but whilst it has got some decent form on fast ground we believe that it acts better with cut in the ground and could come up short today.
Cesare is an admirable horse who is very consistent but not sure it is really up to Group 1 class and expect it to find at least one or two too good today.
Arabian Gleam and Dream Eater are held by a couple of these today and hard to see them being good enough, which leaves us with our selection Aqlaam.
Aqlaam was very impressive last year when winning the Jersey Stakes over 7F and the sky looked to be the limit for this horse. It had a setback after that race and didn't run again until the Lockinge Stakes this year where it finished 10th of 11 and was well beaten. Strictly on that run it has no chance today however this horse wants fast ground and it would have needed the run that day. If you consider that Haggas rates this as the best horse in his yard and forgive its last run for the reasons mentioned, then at 11/1 this looks overpriced. There is a chance that it won't get the mile trip, but we believe it will, and the breeding certainly suggests that it should. Happy to play up a few points on this one today in the hope that it returns to the form of last season and that the favourite has been overrated.
There is a possiblity of a bet elsewhere this evening and as always we will let you know if that's the case.
Good Luck
Sunday 14 June 2009
Catch Up...
Friday was a little frustrating, with our biggest win bet to date running well but ultimately finding the Godolphin runner too good on the day and whilst it looked as though it would win for a moment (traded 1/4 in running) the winner won a shade cosily in the end. Our other runner refused to go in the stalls and was then withdrawn and again it was frustrating to see the well backed favourite turned over as we believed that we had got a few lengths in hand on this.
Time unfortunately prevented us posting up or getting involved yesterday and due to some serious family matters, Mick will be struggling to find the necessary time to assist with the blog for the foreseeable future. Mick has agreed to leave me solely responsible until things are right for him to return but it is likely to mean that there will be less frequent posts and account bets. I will still be getting stuck into the form as much as before and I'm sure Mick will get some time to look himself, so please be assured that the selections will still have been thoroughly researched and will be carrying our money.
Nothing doing today, Esteem Machine (2.30 Salisbury) ran a very eyecatching race at Sandown last time when it finished 4th but it was a 25/1 shot that day and the secret is out of the bag and a top price of 9/2 doesn't really appeal.
Support Fund (4.15 Salisbury) is also worth a second look and was very unfortunate last season over C & D when poorly riden by a young apprentice. The ground will probably be a little on the fast side today and its probably a race to watch rather than get involved in.
Over at Doncaster there are a couple worth keeping an eye on. In the 3.30 Seamus Shindig who ran much better on its latest start than the bare form figures suggest, however the better prices have gone this morning and it looks a tough race. In the 4.05 race I like the chances of the McCabe runner, Well Of Echoes at the prices, following a decent run last time out and looking sure on breeding to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs today. One or two at the front of the market namely, Hukba and Honours Stride appear to have been priced on connections rather than form and taking these types on is a good way to be profitable in the long run. A few other unexposed types in here make this a little bit speculative for a bet today but I couldn't put anybody off.
Good luck if you get involved today and I will try and keep the blog updated as much as possible.
Time unfortunately prevented us posting up or getting involved yesterday and due to some serious family matters, Mick will be struggling to find the necessary time to assist with the blog for the foreseeable future. Mick has agreed to leave me solely responsible until things are right for him to return but it is likely to mean that there will be less frequent posts and account bets. I will still be getting stuck into the form as much as before and I'm sure Mick will get some time to look himself, so please be assured that the selections will still have been thoroughly researched and will be carrying our money.
Nothing doing today, Esteem Machine (2.30 Salisbury) ran a very eyecatching race at Sandown last time when it finished 4th but it was a 25/1 shot that day and the secret is out of the bag and a top price of 9/2 doesn't really appeal.
Support Fund (4.15 Salisbury) is also worth a second look and was very unfortunate last season over C & D when poorly riden by a young apprentice. The ground will probably be a little on the fast side today and its probably a race to watch rather than get involved in.
Over at Doncaster there are a couple worth keeping an eye on. In the 3.30 Seamus Shindig who ran much better on its latest start than the bare form figures suggest, however the better prices have gone this morning and it looks a tough race. In the 4.05 race I like the chances of the McCabe runner, Well Of Echoes at the prices, following a decent run last time out and looking sure on breeding to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs today. One or two at the front of the market namely, Hukba and Honours Stride appear to have been priced on connections rather than form and taking these types on is a good way to be profitable in the long run. A few other unexposed types in here make this a little bit speculative for a bet today but I couldn't put anybody off.
Good luck if you get involved today and I will try and keep the blog updated as much as possible.
Friday 12 June 2009
A Busy Day.......
There are 3 bets for us today:
3PT WIN - 3.50 SANDOWN - SIR ISAAC (available at 11/2 with Lads, Corals, Hills, Skybet, Betfred & Stan James)
2PT WIN - 8.00 GOODWOOD - LECEILE (available at 9/2 Lads, 4/1 generally) - Withdrawn before race
1PT EW DOUBLE ON BOTH
Today is obviously a very significant day for us and we believe that we have found two horses which have massive chances and we are very keen on them both.
We backed Sir Isaac last time out and after missing the break it was left stone last. Milzcarek opted to try and come up the stands rail and after travelling strongly she was caught in behind horses about 2F out and basically had nowehere to go. Once the gap appeared the horse stayed on nicely without ever really being asked any questions and can definitely be rated better than the literal form. Today it is stepped up another furlong which we believe will help (certainly the breeding suggests it will) and the slightly easier ground should also not be any inconvenience. The sire has a fantastic record with his siblings at this course and the Haggas/Milzcarek combination have a strike rate of over 42% when teaming up together. The selection looks to be a better animal than its current mark and we think this could be rated much higher in the future.
Of its rivals there are obvioiusly one or two potential improvers and chances can be given to Laudatory and Pride of Kings but we feel that these are closer to their true marks than the selection today. The Dunlop runner looks badly handicapped on what it has achieved so far and looks one to oppose at the prices. All in all we would be very disappointed if Sir Isaac doesn't go close today and with a clear run should take all the beating.
The other selection today, Leceile, pipped one of our account bets by the minimum distance last time out when winning a soft ground maiden at Newcastle. The final result doesn't really do Leceile any justice as she had the race won some way out that day and just got tired in the closing stages. That was only her 3rd appearance and foillowed a couple of decent efforts on the AW in races which have thrown any number of winners up since. If you compare the selection with todays favourite, Just Like Silk, on a line with Fortuni, our selection should have the measure of this comfortably and with the Haggas/Milzcarek combination 2 from 2 here and decent sire and trainer stats to boot we think she could be leniently treated off a mark of 75.
Eastern Aria has been doing most of her running on the AW and doesn't appear to be overly well handicapped on form to date, Advisor was well beaten over a furlong less here last time and doesn't appear to be crying out for a longer trip, Hambledon Hill needs to improve but has run one or two fairly encouraging races, Red Suede Shoes makes his turf debut but has proved that it gets the trip at least and the others look as though they need to show improved form to figure here today. We are very sweet on the chances of Leceile and are surprised that she is not favourite today.
All the best
3PT WIN - 3.50 SANDOWN - SIR ISAAC (available at 11/2 with Lads, Corals, Hills, Skybet, Betfred & Stan James)
2PT WIN - 8.00 GOODWOOD - LECEILE (available at 9/2 Lads, 4/1 generally) - Withdrawn before race
1PT EW DOUBLE ON BOTH
Today is obviously a very significant day for us and we believe that we have found two horses which have massive chances and we are very keen on them both.
We backed Sir Isaac last time out and after missing the break it was left stone last. Milzcarek opted to try and come up the stands rail and after travelling strongly she was caught in behind horses about 2F out and basically had nowehere to go. Once the gap appeared the horse stayed on nicely without ever really being asked any questions and can definitely be rated better than the literal form. Today it is stepped up another furlong which we believe will help (certainly the breeding suggests it will) and the slightly easier ground should also not be any inconvenience. The sire has a fantastic record with his siblings at this course and the Haggas/Milzcarek combination have a strike rate of over 42% when teaming up together. The selection looks to be a better animal than its current mark and we think this could be rated much higher in the future.
Of its rivals there are obvioiusly one or two potential improvers and chances can be given to Laudatory and Pride of Kings but we feel that these are closer to their true marks than the selection today. The Dunlop runner looks badly handicapped on what it has achieved so far and looks one to oppose at the prices. All in all we would be very disappointed if Sir Isaac doesn't go close today and with a clear run should take all the beating.
The other selection today, Leceile, pipped one of our account bets by the minimum distance last time out when winning a soft ground maiden at Newcastle. The final result doesn't really do Leceile any justice as she had the race won some way out that day and just got tired in the closing stages. That was only her 3rd appearance and foillowed a couple of decent efforts on the AW in races which have thrown any number of winners up since. If you compare the selection with todays favourite, Just Like Silk, on a line with Fortuni, our selection should have the measure of this comfortably and with the Haggas/Milzcarek combination 2 from 2 here and decent sire and trainer stats to boot we think she could be leniently treated off a mark of 75.
Eastern Aria has been doing most of her running on the AW and doesn't appear to be overly well handicapped on form to date, Advisor was well beaten over a furlong less here last time and doesn't appear to be crying out for a longer trip, Hambledon Hill needs to improve but has run one or two fairly encouraging races, Red Suede Shoes makes his turf debut but has proved that it gets the trip at least and the others look as though they need to show improved form to figure here today. We are very sweet on the chances of Leceile and are surprised that she is not favourite today.
All the best
Thursday 11 June 2009
Great Yarmouth??
There is one bet so far for us today:
1PT WIN - 4.35 YARMOUTH - MAFAHEEM (available at 10/1 with Skybet & Paddy Power, 9/1 generally including BOG bookies)
We are up against it for time again today but this horse is well handicapped on old form and has ran twice over C & D resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse has been mainly campaigned on the AW of late and won off a higher mark than todays in January however it has a very good record after a break (won twice before after a break of 2 months or more) and the trainer is in good form. He also has a better record at Yarmouth than anywhere else and there is a chance that this horse has been targeted at a race like todays for some time.
There are a few of the others that are well handicapped and therefore it is not a strong bet but at 10/1 we believe that this is overpriced today and worth a minimum stakes bet.
There is another horse which we like running today and we will be back later if we are betting.
Good luck
1PT WIN - 4.35 YARMOUTH - MAFAHEEM (available at 10/1 with Skybet & Paddy Power, 9/1 generally including BOG bookies)
We are up against it for time again today but this horse is well handicapped on old form and has ran twice over C & D resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse has been mainly campaigned on the AW of late and won off a higher mark than todays in January however it has a very good record after a break (won twice before after a break of 2 months or more) and the trainer is in good form. He also has a better record at Yarmouth than anywhere else and there is a chance that this horse has been targeted at a race like todays for some time.
There are a few of the others that are well handicapped and therefore it is not a strong bet but at 10/1 we believe that this is overpriced today and worth a minimum stakes bet.
There is another horse which we like running today and we will be back later if we are betting.
Good luck
Wednesday 10 June 2009
Drawn into a bet........
There is one bet for us today so far:
1PT WIN - 3.40 HAYDOCK - CALLIGRAPHER (available at 8/1 with Blue Square, 15/2 Corals and 7/1 generally including BOG bookies)
Todays selection is overpriced in our opinion and there are good reasons to believe that this could run a big race today. It has only had 4 career starts, running down the field on debut before winning a 6F Pontefract maiden. It was then pitched into a conditions race at Lingfield where it was sent off at odds on but finished a well beaten 4th of 5. We believe that the horse was ill at ease around the tight turns of Lingfield and whilst its breeding suggests that it should have had no problem with the all weather surface it may be a case that this is better on the turf. This season it has had one run, a pipeopener in a very decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket where it ran well for a long way before fading and finishing 13th of 14. The winner of the Lingfield race and subsequent 5th in the Newmarket race, Global City, reopposes today and strictly on weights and measures this should beat our selection. This is currently trading at around 11/4 favourite and with a run under its belt and at a track where the trainer and jockey have an excellent record we believe that at 7/1 or bigger Calligrapher is overpriced. The other thing worth considering is the form of the Jarvis stable as when it made its reappearance the stable were not enjoying a particularly good spell but there have been signs of late that they are hitting form again and this can only be a good thing for the chances today. Robinson also goes there for this ride before shooting off to Kempton to ride a couple later on.
White Shift is a filly that was highly tried as a 2 year old and after running creditably in some of the top filly races she flattened off and was struggling to cope with the handicap mark she achieved. So much so in fact that she contested a claiming race at Bath which she duly won with any amount in hand. Since then she has followed up in a Class 4 handicap at Newmarket before running 2nd last time out however she is now 7lbs above her last winning mark and its possible that the handicapper has caught up with her.
Wedding List represents the high flying William Haggas yard and anything he sends out has to merit respect. Wedding List is beautifully bred and has only had the 3 runs to date but on closer inspection of her form a mark of 84 hardly seems generous. After being well beaten in a maiden at Yarmouth she then finished 2nd at Great Leighs befiore winning her final start very cosily. She had the run of the race that day and nothing that finished behind has come out and franked the form. The form of her 2nd has not been advertised either and we think she will have had to improve significantly to take this.
Parisian Art comes from a big stable who are capable or readying one first time out but a debut maiden win has seen this one achieve a mark in the mid 90's and whilst the handicapper has given it some relief we think it may need to drop a little more before it wins races like this.
Spiritofthewest has won a soft ground maiden over 5f at Beverley and ran some fair races in defeat since, although it does need to prove that it gets 6F and has had enough chances to do so.
Diggeratt will probably prefer the faster ground today than on its seasonal reappearance but it needs to step up a bit on last years form as the races it was competing in were much weaker than todays. The jockey booking would not inspire confidence either but I suppose the price of 25/1 reflects this.
Desert Falls is one which could run better than its odds suggest. There is a line of form from earlier in the season that gives it the beating of White Shift and you can probably put a line through its last run at Chester when it was badly hampered and any chance went. The trainer has come into a bit of form in the last week or so and at prices of 16/1 and bigger this could run a decent race.
Overall we believe that Calligrapher is a better horse than it has shown on its latest starts and at the prices today merits a minmum stakes win bet.
There are some horses of interest later this evening and if we feel that they are worthy of a bet an email will be sent out later on.
Good Luck
1PT WIN - 3.40 HAYDOCK - CALLIGRAPHER (available at 8/1 with Blue Square, 15/2 Corals and 7/1 generally including BOG bookies)
Todays selection is overpriced in our opinion and there are good reasons to believe that this could run a big race today. It has only had 4 career starts, running down the field on debut before winning a 6F Pontefract maiden. It was then pitched into a conditions race at Lingfield where it was sent off at odds on but finished a well beaten 4th of 5. We believe that the horse was ill at ease around the tight turns of Lingfield and whilst its breeding suggests that it should have had no problem with the all weather surface it may be a case that this is better on the turf. This season it has had one run, a pipeopener in a very decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket where it ran well for a long way before fading and finishing 13th of 14. The winner of the Lingfield race and subsequent 5th in the Newmarket race, Global City, reopposes today and strictly on weights and measures this should beat our selection. This is currently trading at around 11/4 favourite and with a run under its belt and at a track where the trainer and jockey have an excellent record we believe that at 7/1 or bigger Calligrapher is overpriced. The other thing worth considering is the form of the Jarvis stable as when it made its reappearance the stable were not enjoying a particularly good spell but there have been signs of late that they are hitting form again and this can only be a good thing for the chances today. Robinson also goes there for this ride before shooting off to Kempton to ride a couple later on.
White Shift is a filly that was highly tried as a 2 year old and after running creditably in some of the top filly races she flattened off and was struggling to cope with the handicap mark she achieved. So much so in fact that she contested a claiming race at Bath which she duly won with any amount in hand. Since then she has followed up in a Class 4 handicap at Newmarket before running 2nd last time out however she is now 7lbs above her last winning mark and its possible that the handicapper has caught up with her.
Wedding List represents the high flying William Haggas yard and anything he sends out has to merit respect. Wedding List is beautifully bred and has only had the 3 runs to date but on closer inspection of her form a mark of 84 hardly seems generous. After being well beaten in a maiden at Yarmouth she then finished 2nd at Great Leighs befiore winning her final start very cosily. She had the run of the race that day and nothing that finished behind has come out and franked the form. The form of her 2nd has not been advertised either and we think she will have had to improve significantly to take this.
Parisian Art comes from a big stable who are capable or readying one first time out but a debut maiden win has seen this one achieve a mark in the mid 90's and whilst the handicapper has given it some relief we think it may need to drop a little more before it wins races like this.
Spiritofthewest has won a soft ground maiden over 5f at Beverley and ran some fair races in defeat since, although it does need to prove that it gets 6F and has had enough chances to do so.
Diggeratt will probably prefer the faster ground today than on its seasonal reappearance but it needs to step up a bit on last years form as the races it was competing in were much weaker than todays. The jockey booking would not inspire confidence either but I suppose the price of 25/1 reflects this.
Desert Falls is one which could run better than its odds suggest. There is a line of form from earlier in the season that gives it the beating of White Shift and you can probably put a line through its last run at Chester when it was badly hampered and any chance went. The trainer has come into a bit of form in the last week or so and at prices of 16/1 and bigger this could run a decent race.
Overall we believe that Calligrapher is a better horse than it has shown on its latest starts and at the prices today merits a minmum stakes win bet.
There are some horses of interest later this evening and if we feel that they are worthy of a bet an email will be sent out later on.
Good Luck
Tuesday 9 June 2009
Here's To You Mr Robinson
The closest we came to a bet this evening was Bertoliver in the 5 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 845pm. Phillip Robinson is back on board the horse tonight and we'd expect him to ping out and race prominently. If Bertoliver produces anything approaching the level of form he achieved under this jockey last May over c and d then he must go close. Unfortunately neither of us have found enough time today to complete the full race form study and analysis, therefore we are not putting this up as a bet. Assuming he doesn't make a mess of the start (and yes, that has happened to one or two of our supposedly well drawn fancies recently) we believe he'll trade shorter in running than the 5/1 he's available at as I write this and we may try and trade him for a few quid.
So no bet today, hopefully we'll have some time tonight to have a look at whatever is on offer tomorrow. Good luck if you get involved this evening.
So no bet today, hopefully we'll have some time tonight to have a look at whatever is on offer tomorrow. Good luck if you get involved this evening.
Apologies.....
Yesterday was another example of how difficult finding the time to do all the necessary study and analysis really is. I was away for a couple of days however I had agreed with Mick that if he was keen on anything that he should send it out as a proper bet via text to those concerned. I was not in a position to prepare and send out the email and due to unforeseen personal circumstances Mick was unable to post any details of the bet on here. To keep things fair on the blog the bet has been recorded on the P & L and those who only receive the bets via email or from the blog have saved themselves a point!!
Looking forward we are constantly trying to improve the way we do things and recognise that whilst it's a case of two steps forward and then two steps back, we are not doing too badly considering. There are a number of areas where we need to improve things, it is just a case of ensuring that time allows. One thing which we will be doing is increasing the number of 1PT win bets on horses which we feel are overpriced and whilst there may be a bit of speculation over some of them we believe with a combination of form analysis and statistical data these will prove profitable in the long run. We both have very busy day jobs and there are only so many hours in a day, and whilst it would be great to post up all our thoughts with in depth analysis quite frankly this is not really possible at the minute. As always we welcome any feedback and suggestions (please keep them clean) and hope that people are enjoying the blog as a whole. Please feel free to take up the option of texts/emails by clicking the link at the top right of the page.
As far as todays racing is concerned the afternoon cards looked difficult and I have concentrated my efforts on the evening card at Chester. As most people know this is a very tight track where a low draw is a big advantage, particularly over the sprint distances, and as usual there are a number of non runners (unsurprisingly the ones drawn widest of all). There is one race which looks potentially interesting and I want to spend a bit longer on it so if there is anything of interest it will be up here later on.
Looking forward we are constantly trying to improve the way we do things and recognise that whilst it's a case of two steps forward and then two steps back, we are not doing too badly considering. There are a number of areas where we need to improve things, it is just a case of ensuring that time allows. One thing which we will be doing is increasing the number of 1PT win bets on horses which we feel are overpriced and whilst there may be a bit of speculation over some of them we believe with a combination of form analysis and statistical data these will prove profitable in the long run. We both have very busy day jobs and there are only so many hours in a day, and whilst it would be great to post up all our thoughts with in depth analysis quite frankly this is not really possible at the minute. As always we welcome any feedback and suggestions (please keep them clean) and hope that people are enjoying the blog as a whole. Please feel free to take up the option of texts/emails by clicking the link at the top right of the page.
As far as todays racing is concerned the afternoon cards looked difficult and I have concentrated my efforts on the evening card at Chester. As most people know this is a very tight track where a low draw is a big advantage, particularly over the sprint distances, and as usual there are a number of non runners (unsurprisingly the ones drawn widest of all). There is one race which looks potentially interesting and I want to spend a bit longer on it so if there is anything of interest it will be up here later on.
Sunday 7 June 2009
A Sign Of Things To Come?
A hugely frustrating week for us with three bets on the blog failing to produce a winner. That only tells half of the story. If we'd put up our "mentions" as selections and backed them with just minimum stakes we'd have secured a very healthy profit this week.
On Monday we backed Brierty and we were happy with the way the horse ran. On this occasion the jolly proved to be in a different league to the rest of the field and we had to settle for second. We can live with that as we know that in the long term we'll take on and beat enough short priced favourites with the same sort of profile to make it more than a worthwhile venture.
On Tuesday we liked Fastnet Storm and both of us backed the horse at 6/1 the night before. Unfortunately on Tuesday the horse was only available during the morning and early afternoon trading at a best price of 4/1. Of course we could have put it up as a blog bet and not worried about the price, especially with one of the main contenders having been withdrawn from the race. However, we didn't think it would be fair to anyone following our bets for us to do that so we decided to explain what we'd done but refrain from including it as a selection on the blog. Of course that means another four points minimum missing from the p and l.
On Wednesday a couple of "mentions" ran poorly but we'll keep an eye on them for the future when they may of course be of interest given the right opposition and conditions.
Thursday was a busy day with two bets and once again it was a case of what might have been. The first of our bets was Habshan who simply wasn't good enough. We do not think the same can be said of Sir Isaac. We believe Sir Isaac will in time show this running to be false. We had hoped Sir Isaac would bounce out of the stalls and take a handy position from a favourable draw. Unfortunately Sir Isaac fell out of the stalls to be last of the field and any hopes of a win were lost.
On Friday Gags found one on the all weather but we didn't have time to to carry out the necessary study and analysis in order to decide if a proper bet was appropriate. In the end Gags traded the horse and I didn't get involved at all. The result, a winner as Cool Hand Jake was backed from 15/2 in to 7/2.
On Saturday we both agreed that Kings Destiny should be favourite and was the most likely winner of his race. Hindsight has shown us to have misjudged the form of his previous run but nonetheless he ran a sound race to finish second.
Just today I looked at one race on the all weather and from two mentions, Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, I found the winner and a fourth, the winner backed from an early 16/1 in to and eventual sp of 7/1.
Looking through all of the above it would be fair to say that our study and analysis is still spot on. If all of this week's mentions had found their way on to the blog we'd have seen another three winners and something like another 20 points added to the p and l even after accounting for the losers. Somehow our aim has to be to find the time required in order to complete our study and analysis so that we back these additional winners and of course make them available to everyone receiving our bets free via text and email.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
4 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6.00 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
101 BETS
17 WINNERS (16.83%)
36 PLACED (35.64%)
PROFIT / LOSS +50.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.07%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (ADVISED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
52 BETS
6 WINNERS (11.54%)
18 PLACED (34.62%)
PROFIT / LOSS +18.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 14.58%
As the headline suggests we would like to think that whilst this week has indeed fallen in to the category of what might have been we will be doing everything we can to ensure the overall picture, bets and mentions, are a sign of things to come. We could certainly do with a financial shot in the arm and I'm sure that comment applies to some of those following our bets in their own way. Lets hope this week sees a welcome upturn in fortunes for all concerned.
On Monday we backed Brierty and we were happy with the way the horse ran. On this occasion the jolly proved to be in a different league to the rest of the field and we had to settle for second. We can live with that as we know that in the long term we'll take on and beat enough short priced favourites with the same sort of profile to make it more than a worthwhile venture.
On Tuesday we liked Fastnet Storm and both of us backed the horse at 6/1 the night before. Unfortunately on Tuesday the horse was only available during the morning and early afternoon trading at a best price of 4/1. Of course we could have put it up as a blog bet and not worried about the price, especially with one of the main contenders having been withdrawn from the race. However, we didn't think it would be fair to anyone following our bets for us to do that so we decided to explain what we'd done but refrain from including it as a selection on the blog. Of course that means another four points minimum missing from the p and l.
On Wednesday a couple of "mentions" ran poorly but we'll keep an eye on them for the future when they may of course be of interest given the right opposition and conditions.
Thursday was a busy day with two bets and once again it was a case of what might have been. The first of our bets was Habshan who simply wasn't good enough. We do not think the same can be said of Sir Isaac. We believe Sir Isaac will in time show this running to be false. We had hoped Sir Isaac would bounce out of the stalls and take a handy position from a favourable draw. Unfortunately Sir Isaac fell out of the stalls to be last of the field and any hopes of a win were lost.
On Friday Gags found one on the all weather but we didn't have time to to carry out the necessary study and analysis in order to decide if a proper bet was appropriate. In the end Gags traded the horse and I didn't get involved at all. The result, a winner as Cool Hand Jake was backed from 15/2 in to 7/2.
On Saturday we both agreed that Kings Destiny should be favourite and was the most likely winner of his race. Hindsight has shown us to have misjudged the form of his previous run but nonetheless he ran a sound race to finish second.
Just today I looked at one race on the all weather and from two mentions, Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, I found the winner and a fourth, the winner backed from an early 16/1 in to and eventual sp of 7/1.
Looking through all of the above it would be fair to say that our study and analysis is still spot on. If all of this week's mentions had found their way on to the blog we'd have seen another three winners and something like another 20 points added to the p and l even after accounting for the losers. Somehow our aim has to be to find the time required in order to complete our study and analysis so that we back these additional winners and of course make them available to everyone receiving our bets free via text and email.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
4 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6.00 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
101 BETS
17 WINNERS (16.83%)
36 PLACED (35.64%)
PROFIT / LOSS +50.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.07%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (ADVISED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
52 BETS
6 WINNERS (11.54%)
18 PLACED (34.62%)
PROFIT / LOSS +18.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 14.58%
As the headline suggests we would like to think that whilst this week has indeed fallen in to the category of what might have been we will be doing everything we can to ensure the overall picture, bets and mentions, are a sign of things to come. We could certainly do with a financial shot in the arm and I'm sure that comment applies to some of those following our bets in their own way. Lets hope this week sees a welcome upturn in fortunes for all concerned.
After The Lord Mayor's
What a performance yesterday from Sea The Stars in The Derby. I can honestly say I never thought we'd again see a horse capable of winning top races over a mile and then a mile and a half, especially not in the space of just a few weeks. The combination of attributes required is immense and in my opinion we cannot overstate just how good Sea The Stars is.
As far as we are concerned, our selection yesterday ran a decent enough race before being hampered and finally finishing second. The interference made no difference whatsoever to the result and we obviously underestimated the winner who had previously beaten our selection at Chester. Whilst we were of the view that the Chester winner had enjoyed the run of the race and would struggle to confirm the form at the revised weights, hindsight has proved that we were wrong. As is often the case we were right and wrong at the same time. The morning favourite was one to take on and we got that beat, ironically a stable-mate of the eventual winner. We felt KINGS DESTINY should have been priced as favourite and eventually the market agreed with us. We still seem to be taking a few steps forward and then unfortunately a few in the opposite direction. Earlier on in the week we backed Habshan and he quite simply wasn't good enough. On the same evening card at Sandown we sided with Sir Isaac and we both remain convinced he will in time prove to be the best horse in that race. Despite falling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running he finished not that far off the front. We are sure he'd have been right in the mix if he'd have started better and been in a position to take advantage of the draw. Then of course on Tuesday we were with Fastnet Storm but we felt we couldn't put him up on here at 4/1 when we'd backed him at 6's. That's racing and of course the blog will show three losing bets this week. Under different circumstances and with a little more luck in running we could have been showing two wins and a healthy profit. As always we'll take it on the chin and move on as we know things will even themselves out over the course of the year. I'm busy this afternoon but I will post up the summaries later this evening.
As far as todays racing goes, I spent a fair bit of time on the 440pm at Southwell. Two which you may find worthy of a second glance at half decent prices are Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, both trading at around double figure odds.
Good luck if you get involved.
As far as we are concerned, our selection yesterday ran a decent enough race before being hampered and finally finishing second. The interference made no difference whatsoever to the result and we obviously underestimated the winner who had previously beaten our selection at Chester. Whilst we were of the view that the Chester winner had enjoyed the run of the race and would struggle to confirm the form at the revised weights, hindsight has proved that we were wrong. As is often the case we were right and wrong at the same time. The morning favourite was one to take on and we got that beat, ironically a stable-mate of the eventual winner. We felt KINGS DESTINY should have been priced as favourite and eventually the market agreed with us. We still seem to be taking a few steps forward and then unfortunately a few in the opposite direction. Earlier on in the week we backed Habshan and he quite simply wasn't good enough. On the same evening card at Sandown we sided with Sir Isaac and we both remain convinced he will in time prove to be the best horse in that race. Despite falling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running he finished not that far off the front. We are sure he'd have been right in the mix if he'd have started better and been in a position to take advantage of the draw. Then of course on Tuesday we were with Fastnet Storm but we felt we couldn't put him up on here at 4/1 when we'd backed him at 6's. That's racing and of course the blog will show three losing bets this week. Under different circumstances and with a little more luck in running we could have been showing two wins and a healthy profit. As always we'll take it on the chin and move on as we know things will even themselves out over the course of the year. I'm busy this afternoon but I will post up the summaries later this evening.
As far as todays racing goes, I spent a fair bit of time on the 440pm at Southwell. Two which you may find worthy of a second glance at half decent prices are Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, both trading at around double figure odds.
Good luck if you get involved.
Saturday 6 June 2009
Derby Day!
Today is the highlight for many flat lovers as the premier race the Derby takes centre stage. We feel that this is a very open race this year and have nothing strong enough for the account although we both think that Black Bear Island could be the one that is overpriced. We have however had a bet in the 2.50 Musselburgh:
2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)
We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.
Good luck if you play.
There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.
2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)
We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.
Good luck if you play.
There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.
Friday 5 June 2009
Quick Catch Up....
There is nothing for the account at the moment and I have to say that we have had very limited opportunity to look at todays form. We will however be getting stuck into the evening cards and if there is anything of interest then it will be posted up later on.
As far as yesterdays selections went, whilst they both proved to be losing bets, they ran very contrasting races. Habshan was disappointing and never really looked like threatening the judge and has not run to the level of its seasonal debut. Sir Isaac however was very frustrating, as one of the principle reasons for playing in this race was that it had the plum draw and was likely to race prominently. What happens? It falls out of the stalls and Milzcarek seemed intent on letting everything go in front of her and the race was effectively lost at the start. The horse itself ran a cracker and finished a never nearer fourth, and whilst it would never have caught the winner, I think with a clearer passage it could well have finished 2nd. Not a lot of good to us but definitely a horse to keep an eye on for the future and if the situation and conditions are right must be one to keep on the right side of.
As far as yesterdays selections went, whilst they both proved to be losing bets, they ran very contrasting races. Habshan was disappointing and never really looked like threatening the judge and has not run to the level of its seasonal debut. Sir Isaac however was very frustrating, as one of the principle reasons for playing in this race was that it had the plum draw and was likely to race prominently. What happens? It falls out of the stalls and Milzcarek seemed intent on letting everything go in front of her and the race was effectively lost at the start. The horse itself ran a cracker and finished a never nearer fourth, and whilst it would never have caught the winner, I think with a clearer passage it could well have finished 2nd. Not a lot of good to us but definitely a horse to keep an eye on for the future and if the situation and conditions are right must be one to keep on the right side of.
Thursday 4 June 2009
Sandown Sizzlers??
Only a couple of days ago we backed a cosy winner of a handicap confined to 3 year olds. At the time we said these were not our favourite type of races but that whenever we felt we were able to obtain a value price about our idea of the most likely winner then we would get involved again. The 7 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 7.15pm falls into that category. The reason these races are so difficult for punters is simple. Too often a number of the runners are unexposed, therefore it is difficult to dismiss them as not having a chance. In all honesty we are unable to totally dismiss a number of the runners in this race but we are still quite keen on one and have decided the odds are sufficient to enable us to get involved. Our decision to play win only is dictated by the shape of the race and the fact that we are unable to get the race down to just two or three runners.
Advertise – ran three times as a 2 year old, performing well first time out over 6 furlongs on fast ground in a Goodwood maiden which has thrown up a number of winners. He went on to win his next race, a soft ground maiden at Warwick, before finishing down the field in a Class 3 event at Doncaster. So we don’t think the ground will be a problem and the trip should be fine, but we don’t know if the horse has trained on or if he’ll like the combination of fast ground and 7 furlongs. This one is also drawn widest of all which hardly helps.
Beautiful Breeze – won one from five as a 2 year old and one from two as a 3 year old. He won a Class 5 event last time out having come up short before that in a Class 3 event at Beverley. Up 6lb for the victory, we feel that others have more scope at this trip.
Brave Echo – was beaten 13 lengths last time out (first run as a 3 year old) and 20 lengths in his last run as a 2 year old, both on ground with cut (last year connections stated the horse didn’t like soft ground), yet he is 4/1 best price for this event this evening. Obviously he comes from a very powerful yard and a number of winners have come out of the Leicester maiden he won as a 2 year old on good ground. Despite the fact that there is money for him (indeed he could go off favourite) and that J Fortune takes the ride, we prefer to side with one having shown better recent form.
Cyflymder – has two wins from eight career starts, a soft ground maiden and a Linfield all weather Handicap. We prefer to look elsewhere.
Durgan – has raced only three times and hasn’t shown enough for us. Of course he could improve significantly upon what he has shown to date but we would need to see more before getting involved.
Head Down – has shown he handles a fast surface and that 7 furlongs suits him, but is up 5lb for winning his 11th career start and that was a run of the mill maiden on the all weather at Lingfield. We think he’s more exposed than some and not for us today.
Key Signature – we think this one will struggle to give the weight away to one or two less exposed rivals.
Major Phil – is another from a powerful yard. He is unexposed and the jockey booking can hardly be described as a negative.
Master Fong – is yet to race as a 3 year old and as such we couldn’t back him today.
That leaves us with our selection which we have backed with firms offering the bog concession. This could drift as there seems to be a bit of money around for one or two of the others.
715 Sandown – SIR ISAAC 2 points win at 4/1 with Sporting Bet (7/2 generally)
Our selection has run and won as a 3 year old. He has been given a break of a month and now steps in to handicap company. He stayed on well to win his maiden at Goodwood in the style of an improving horse. The fact that he was allowed to go off at a sp of 16/1 that day suggests that the result wasn’t totally expected. We believe there could be a lot more to come from this horse. So apart from the fact that he won his maiden over 7 furlongs at a top track, what else is in his favour today? Well, connections could hardly be in better form could they? The trainer has had 7 winners from his last 16 runners and the trainer and jockey have a 50% strike rate when teaming up. If you also consider that the sire has a 40% strike rate at the course and that the selection has the best of the draw, particularly for one likely to be ridden prominently, then we don’t think it takes too long to work out that he could be a fair bit better than a 75 rated animal. All things considered we believe 7/2 represents a bit of value and if the price drifts then even better.
We have also bet in the following race, the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap due off at 750pm. The first thing we should say is that we respect the chances of the jolly and we agree it probably has at least as good a chance of winning as any other of its rivals, but we believe there is significant value to be had by looking elsewhere.
Annabelle’s Charm – she must have a good chance of picking up the prize, but she has been a beaten favourite on more than one occasion.
Ballinteni – is 0/7 at the distance and 0/9 on fast ground.
Cotswolds – an unexposed M Johnston horse but on what we’ve seen we couldn’t back him.
Ellemujie – cannot be dismissed and has form lines which tie in with one or two of the other runners. We just feel that better value lies elsewhere.
Hurricane Hymnbook – beaten almost a combined 40 lengths in his last three runs.
Miss Glitters – has only run four times, therefore unexposed, but up in trip and class today. Not for us at the prices.
Mujood – has been in fine form recently and is another with collateral form. Another bold bid could be on the cards but we prefer another one today.
Ocean Transit – doesn’t look good enough.
Prince Of Thebes – could be well handicapped and is an attractive price. We are just concerned that he doesn’t seem to be finishing off his races that well. He may well pop up at a price but we can’t back him today.
Willow Dancer – has form with a couple of rivals, but if you fancy this one then surely you have to consider our selection at bigger prices.
So that brings us to our selection for the race:-
750 Sandown – HABSHAN 1 point win at 10/1 with Stan James (bog), Skybet and Ladbrokes
Habshan is now 9 years old but is only lightly raced and he showed he retains his ability when running a cracking race to finish 3rd of 12 behind his stable-mate on his seasonal reappearance. In the past he has won on his second outing and all of his seven career wins have come at this distance, five of them on fast ground and one at this venue. Of course he will need luck in running but the trainer / jockey have a great record when teaming up. We have played because we believe he has a live chance and his odds are bigger than they should be.
Good luck if you get involved today.
Advertise – ran three times as a 2 year old, performing well first time out over 6 furlongs on fast ground in a Goodwood maiden which has thrown up a number of winners. He went on to win his next race, a soft ground maiden at Warwick, before finishing down the field in a Class 3 event at Doncaster. So we don’t think the ground will be a problem and the trip should be fine, but we don’t know if the horse has trained on or if he’ll like the combination of fast ground and 7 furlongs. This one is also drawn widest of all which hardly helps.
Beautiful Breeze – won one from five as a 2 year old and one from two as a 3 year old. He won a Class 5 event last time out having come up short before that in a Class 3 event at Beverley. Up 6lb for the victory, we feel that others have more scope at this trip.
Brave Echo – was beaten 13 lengths last time out (first run as a 3 year old) and 20 lengths in his last run as a 2 year old, both on ground with cut (last year connections stated the horse didn’t like soft ground), yet he is 4/1 best price for this event this evening. Obviously he comes from a very powerful yard and a number of winners have come out of the Leicester maiden he won as a 2 year old on good ground. Despite the fact that there is money for him (indeed he could go off favourite) and that J Fortune takes the ride, we prefer to side with one having shown better recent form.
Cyflymder – has two wins from eight career starts, a soft ground maiden and a Linfield all weather Handicap. We prefer to look elsewhere.
Durgan – has raced only three times and hasn’t shown enough for us. Of course he could improve significantly upon what he has shown to date but we would need to see more before getting involved.
Head Down – has shown he handles a fast surface and that 7 furlongs suits him, but is up 5lb for winning his 11th career start and that was a run of the mill maiden on the all weather at Lingfield. We think he’s more exposed than some and not for us today.
Key Signature – we think this one will struggle to give the weight away to one or two less exposed rivals.
Major Phil – is another from a powerful yard. He is unexposed and the jockey booking can hardly be described as a negative.
Master Fong – is yet to race as a 3 year old and as such we couldn’t back him today.
That leaves us with our selection which we have backed with firms offering the bog concession. This could drift as there seems to be a bit of money around for one or two of the others.
715 Sandown – SIR ISAAC 2 points win at 4/1 with Sporting Bet (7/2 generally)
Our selection has run and won as a 3 year old. He has been given a break of a month and now steps in to handicap company. He stayed on well to win his maiden at Goodwood in the style of an improving horse. The fact that he was allowed to go off at a sp of 16/1 that day suggests that the result wasn’t totally expected. We believe there could be a lot more to come from this horse. So apart from the fact that he won his maiden over 7 furlongs at a top track, what else is in his favour today? Well, connections could hardly be in better form could they? The trainer has had 7 winners from his last 16 runners and the trainer and jockey have a 50% strike rate when teaming up. If you also consider that the sire has a 40% strike rate at the course and that the selection has the best of the draw, particularly for one likely to be ridden prominently, then we don’t think it takes too long to work out that he could be a fair bit better than a 75 rated animal. All things considered we believe 7/2 represents a bit of value and if the price drifts then even better.
We have also bet in the following race, the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap due off at 750pm. The first thing we should say is that we respect the chances of the jolly and we agree it probably has at least as good a chance of winning as any other of its rivals, but we believe there is significant value to be had by looking elsewhere.
Annabelle’s Charm – she must have a good chance of picking up the prize, but she has been a beaten favourite on more than one occasion.
Ballinteni – is 0/7 at the distance and 0/9 on fast ground.
Cotswolds – an unexposed M Johnston horse but on what we’ve seen we couldn’t back him.
Ellemujie – cannot be dismissed and has form lines which tie in with one or two of the other runners. We just feel that better value lies elsewhere.
Hurricane Hymnbook – beaten almost a combined 40 lengths in his last three runs.
Miss Glitters – has only run four times, therefore unexposed, but up in trip and class today. Not for us at the prices.
Mujood – has been in fine form recently and is another with collateral form. Another bold bid could be on the cards but we prefer another one today.
Ocean Transit – doesn’t look good enough.
Prince Of Thebes – could be well handicapped and is an attractive price. We are just concerned that he doesn’t seem to be finishing off his races that well. He may well pop up at a price but we can’t back him today.
Willow Dancer – has form with a couple of rivals, but if you fancy this one then surely you have to consider our selection at bigger prices.
So that brings us to our selection for the race:-
750 Sandown – HABSHAN 1 point win at 10/1 with Stan James (bog), Skybet and Ladbrokes
Habshan is now 9 years old but is only lightly raced and he showed he retains his ability when running a cracking race to finish 3rd of 12 behind his stable-mate on his seasonal reappearance. In the past he has won on his second outing and all of his seven career wins have come at this distance, five of them on fast ground and one at this venue. Of course he will need luck in running but the trainer / jockey have a great record when teaming up. We have played because we believe he has a live chance and his odds are bigger than they should be.
Good luck if you get involved today.
Hamilton And Lingfield
The afternoon cards are not exactly inspiring so we have concentrated our efforts on the evening card at Sandown. We have had a couple of bets but as the emails and texts have only just been sent out to those on the lists we will wait until later before updating the blog.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
Wednesday 3 June 2009
Ripon Again
We didn't like the Kempton race this evening but the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap at Ripon due of at 810pm looks fairly interesting. In the end we are unable to put up a bet because we haven't both had enough time to work through all the different factors required. For those interested I think the two most interesting horses in this field are KINGS POINT and MINORITY REPORT, ironically both representing the D Nicholls stable. I have a slight preference for the former but since we haven't both had sufficient time to carry out all of the study and analysis we would have liked we are left with no option but to put them up as "mentions" and not proper "account" bets. Whatever the outcome, win or lose, these will not figure in our p and l. If some of you want to back or trade them then that is a matter for you and we naturally wish all the best of luck.
Gags will be back on here tomorrow lunchtime if we are betting in the afternoon.
Gags will be back on here tomorrow lunchtime if we are betting in the afternoon.
A Quiet Wednesday Afternoon
We are not betting this afternoon but we are looking at one race at Ripon and another at Kempton this evening. If we get involved we will update on here later.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
Tuesday 2 June 2009
Tuesday Evening At Folkestone
As anyone reading the blog will know we traded a comfortable winner earlier on today. Last night the only firm pricing the race up allowed us a "monkey" between us at the early 6/1. At that stage we were fairly sure the horse would go off and / or trade much shorter, allowing us a free bet on one we fancied to run a big race. I must point out that Gags deserves most (about 99%) of the credit for this one as he identified it and pretty much had it sewn up before asking my opinion. Between us we had the race between four runners at that stage but with FASTNET STORM looking over priced. This morning one of our "four" was declared a non-runner, effectively leaving us with three possibles and one fancied more than the others. We discussed putting it up as an eachway bet and / or as a win selection on the blog, but in the end we didn't think it was fair. Whilst this blog is here to record our progress as we strive to achieve our targets throughout the year, we are very much aware of the fact that some people are following our bets with their own money. We didn't think it was right to say "we have backed this at 6/1 but the biggest price you can get now is 4/1". So instead Gags posted and let everyone know what we had done. Whilst we've made a few quid and we know many readers of the blog have followed us in, the "account" will not include this horse as a selection nor will the profits be added to the p and l. At least people can again see that the study and analysis are close to the mark or, as in this case, spot on. Long term that is important.
There are one or two interesting races at Folkestone this evening, not least of all the Class 5 Handicap over 6 furlongs due off at 720pm, but we are not getting involved. We will concentrate on trying to find something from tomorrows cards at Ayr, Kempton, Nottingham and Ripon. Gags will probably be on here later to answer one or two comments and emails we have received and possibly to explain things more clearly than I have in my attempt above!
There are one or two interesting races at Folkestone this evening, not least of all the Class 5 Handicap over 6 furlongs due off at 720pm, but we are not getting involved. We will concentrate on trying to find something from tomorrows cards at Ayr, Kempton, Nottingham and Ripon. Gags will probably be on here later to answer one or two comments and emails we have received and possibly to explain things more clearly than I have in my attempt above!
Nothing This Afternoon........
It is a pretty average days racing today and as far as this afternoon is concerned there is nothing which we felt justified going on to the account. We got involved with one late last night, with a view to trading, and whilst we believe it is certain to trade shorter than the prices originally available, there were one or two doubts as to its ability to last home and for that reason we cannot put it up as a bet.
For those of you that are interested the horse in question is Fastnet Storm in the 4.00 Ripon. This horse has run some very respectable races so far and whilst it has disappointed on a few occasions there are valid reasons for this (soft ground). The horse is clearly quite well regarded by the trainer (he has sent it to Newmarket a couple of times and the horse has been well backed on more than one occasion) and on a track where the trainer and jockey have a 26% strike rate this must be of interest. When you consider that the sire has a record of 6 wins from 13 tries at the course (46%) and an overall record of 18% at the trip then it becomes even more interesting. We would expect this to bounce out this afternoon and try and make all and whilst there are a couple of potential improvers, notably Hatta Diamond and High Office, it would not be the biggest surprise to see this fend them all off in the home straight.
So why is this not going on to the account you might ask? Simply the price was 6/1 last night with the only bookmaker to price up and whilst there is now one non runner (another we felt was of interest) it is now a general 4/1 chance, 7/2 in places and doesn't really offer much in terms of value.
Hopefully we have read the race correctly again and the selection will trade shorter and generate a decent risk free bet for us but whether it hangs on for the win remains to be seen!
Good luck if you get involved with anything today and if there is anything this evening we will be back on here with the bet and analysis as usual.
For those of you that are interested the horse in question is Fastnet Storm in the 4.00 Ripon. This horse has run some very respectable races so far and whilst it has disappointed on a few occasions there are valid reasons for this (soft ground). The horse is clearly quite well regarded by the trainer (he has sent it to Newmarket a couple of times and the horse has been well backed on more than one occasion) and on a track where the trainer and jockey have a 26% strike rate this must be of interest. When you consider that the sire has a record of 6 wins from 13 tries at the course (46%) and an overall record of 18% at the trip then it becomes even more interesting. We would expect this to bounce out this afternoon and try and make all and whilst there are a couple of potential improvers, notably Hatta Diamond and High Office, it would not be the biggest surprise to see this fend them all off in the home straight.
So why is this not going on to the account you might ask? Simply the price was 6/1 last night with the only bookmaker to price up and whilst there is now one non runner (another we felt was of interest) it is now a general 4/1 chance, 7/2 in places and doesn't really offer much in terms of value.
Hopefully we have read the race correctly again and the selection will trade shorter and generate a decent risk free bet for us but whether it hangs on for the win remains to be seen!
Good luck if you get involved with anything today and if there is anything this evening we will be back on here with the bet and analysis as usual.
Monday 1 June 2009
7.40 Thirsk
It is not very often that you will find us betting in handicaps confined to 3 year olds, but when we believe we have value on our side then we have to get involved.
The market is suggesting that the M Bell trained jolly, Secret Society, will be very tough to beat. Of course you have to respect the connections but we think this one is too short on what it has actually achieved. Once you come to that conclusion it’s simply a case of laying the favourite, not our chosen method, or finding one or two against it at decent odds. So what exactly has this one achieved? Four career runs to date, two as a 2 year old including a nothing out of the ordinary 2nd in a Folkestone maiden over 6 furlongs. As a 3 year old we’ve seen the horse twice. He won his maiden at Lingfield on the all weather, a four runner affair, before finishing 4th of 7 in a mile handicap at Newmarket. From what we can make out it is that run upon which people are pinning their hopes of him winning tonight. Whilst the Racing Post comments show that he got tired inside the final furlong they make no mention of the fact that it was a slow run race, therefore stamina was not at a premium. Whilst he could very well win tonight, we do not believe he should be as short as he is at 2/1 in the betting.
The market has Regal Lyric as the next best in at around 5/1. We think this price is more to do with the connections (trainer / jockey combination have a 50% strike rate at this course) than it is to do with form. This horse actually finished behind Richo last time out yet, off the same terms, is half the price. We think others bring better form to the race. It is also our view that this one would need to be decent to win from the draw. Of course that is not impossible but at the prices we are happy to oppose.
Fathey represents the Fahey / Hannigan combination but needs to step up on what it has achieved so far in order to win tonight. One win from 7 career starts, in a 5 furlong maiden at Hamilton as a 2 year old, does not suggest to us that this one is especially well treated. Having said that the horse is trying the trip for the first time so that could bring about some improvement, although we prefer to look elsewhere.
Richo finished in front or Regal Lyric when they met but as previously stated we think either will do well to win tonight, bearing in mind the form they have shown to date and the draws they have to overcome.
Seldom is unexposed, a winner over the distance and on fast ground, but has to contend with the worst of the draw.
Of the remainder we think Red Kyte could run better than the odds of 20/1 suggest, but our selection is
740 Thirsk – BRIERTY - 1 POINT WIN AT 17/2 with Hills (bog), 8/1 with Coral.
Our selection ran five times as a 2 year old, winning twice and running with credit on at least one other occasion. Her running style more than once suggested that she will be able to take advantage of a decent draw (the two non-runners this evening were drawn inside her, effectively meaning she is now drawn in stall three). We know she likes a fast surface as her best performances last year were on good to firm ground. She has also performed well when running over this trip, most notably when 2nd in a decent race at Newmarket despite being switched midway through the race from the far side to the stands’ side. She has had just the one run as a 3 year old, out the back not getting a clear run before staying on well enough on ground which probably didn’t suit her. We think she could improve significantly upon that effort now that she races back under what appear to be favourable conditions.
Whilst we think the selection has a great chance this evening and we feel that she is over-priced, we cannot get carried away. This is a 3 year old handicap, the type of race we won’t play in that often, the type of race that could contain any number of dark horses. Therefore, whilst we have placed a bet we have kept stakes to the minimum. The upside is enough to tempt us and the downside will hardly have any impact at all in the overall scheme of things.
Good luck if you play.
The market is suggesting that the M Bell trained jolly, Secret Society, will be very tough to beat. Of course you have to respect the connections but we think this one is too short on what it has actually achieved. Once you come to that conclusion it’s simply a case of laying the favourite, not our chosen method, or finding one or two against it at decent odds. So what exactly has this one achieved? Four career runs to date, two as a 2 year old including a nothing out of the ordinary 2nd in a Folkestone maiden over 6 furlongs. As a 3 year old we’ve seen the horse twice. He won his maiden at Lingfield on the all weather, a four runner affair, before finishing 4th of 7 in a mile handicap at Newmarket. From what we can make out it is that run upon which people are pinning their hopes of him winning tonight. Whilst the Racing Post comments show that he got tired inside the final furlong they make no mention of the fact that it was a slow run race, therefore stamina was not at a premium. Whilst he could very well win tonight, we do not believe he should be as short as he is at 2/1 in the betting.
The market has Regal Lyric as the next best in at around 5/1. We think this price is more to do with the connections (trainer / jockey combination have a 50% strike rate at this course) than it is to do with form. This horse actually finished behind Richo last time out yet, off the same terms, is half the price. We think others bring better form to the race. It is also our view that this one would need to be decent to win from the draw. Of course that is not impossible but at the prices we are happy to oppose.
Fathey represents the Fahey / Hannigan combination but needs to step up on what it has achieved so far in order to win tonight. One win from 7 career starts, in a 5 furlong maiden at Hamilton as a 2 year old, does not suggest to us that this one is especially well treated. Having said that the horse is trying the trip for the first time so that could bring about some improvement, although we prefer to look elsewhere.
Richo finished in front or Regal Lyric when they met but as previously stated we think either will do well to win tonight, bearing in mind the form they have shown to date and the draws they have to overcome.
Seldom is unexposed, a winner over the distance and on fast ground, but has to contend with the worst of the draw.
Of the remainder we think Red Kyte could run better than the odds of 20/1 suggest, but our selection is
740 Thirsk – BRIERTY - 1 POINT WIN AT 17/2 with Hills (bog), 8/1 with Coral.
Our selection ran five times as a 2 year old, winning twice and running with credit on at least one other occasion. Her running style more than once suggested that she will be able to take advantage of a decent draw (the two non-runners this evening were drawn inside her, effectively meaning she is now drawn in stall three). We know she likes a fast surface as her best performances last year were on good to firm ground. She has also performed well when running over this trip, most notably when 2nd in a decent race at Newmarket despite being switched midway through the race from the far side to the stands’ side. She has had just the one run as a 3 year old, out the back not getting a clear run before staying on well enough on ground which probably didn’t suit her. We think she could improve significantly upon that effort now that she races back under what appear to be favourable conditions.
Whilst we think the selection has a great chance this evening and we feel that she is over-priced, we cannot get carried away. This is a 3 year old handicap, the type of race we won’t play in that often, the type of race that could contain any number of dark horses. Therefore, whilst we have placed a bet we have kept stakes to the minimum. The upside is enough to tempt us and the downside will hardly have any impact at all in the overall scheme of things.
Good luck if you play.
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