One Selection And A Few Phrases

"Never be afraid of one horse", "No such thing as a certainty" and "Be prepared to forgive a bad run" are all suggestions I try and remember when carrying out my analysis and deciding whether or not to back a horse.

I have one selection to pass on this morning and you could say all three of those sentiments apply. I am playing in the 420, a Handicap over 1 mile. The race is made up of mainly exposed types with just a few exceptions. I have no idea about the Mark Johnston trained horse, it could win on the bridle, it might finish tailed off. Other than that one, I believe my selection has pretty much the rest of this field covered on what it achieved two runs ago, when winning over c and d. I believe a reproduction of that form will see him go very close in todays race and we have the added bonus that he may actually improve. Most of todays rivals are exposed and I'd be disappointed if

420 Southwell ALMAHAZA 1 point each way at 9/1 (Paddy Power BOG)

doesn't at least make the frame. You can forget the last run, on a different surface and over a different trip, at Lingfield. Back at this venue, over this trip, against mostly exposed rivals I make the selection a 5/1 shot, so at 9/1 we have the value.

I may have something for later this evening at Wolverhampton. If that is the case then I will post by about 6pm.