EDIT:
There is a non runner in the race now which reduces the field to seven however I have had a 2PT EW bet at 6/1 with Stan James and William Hill. Normally I would only back win only in a seven runner race but if this runs anywhere near to form then the only danger is the favourite and 1/4 the odds 1-2 still makes a bit of appeal. Good luck if you follow me in!!
Well the last few weeks certainly haven't gone to plan and a combination of things good and bad have meant that there has been no time for blogging unfortunately!!
A few weeks back I was really keen on one and after spending about 90 mins going through the race and writing an in depth analysis, I had a strong account selection ready to go. When I went to bed there was only one firm priced up and they were showing 11/2 which I was more than happy to back it at. Well things went downhill from there....I logged on at 8.00 am and they were now showing 4/1 on the horse and by 9.30 this was the price across the boards. I adjusted my staking slightly due to the reduced value but then decided that I would just pass on the bet completely. Wind the clock forward several hours and hey presto it wins by 6 lengths at 3/1!!! To say I was pissed off would be an understatement!!! To put so much time into writing everything up only to receive a hefty whack to the chuds is extremely frustrating to the say the least and it was several days before I could even bring myself to even think about this blog!! Anyway I have been doing reasonably well from my betting over the last few weeks and its time to start posting on a regular basis again.
Due to some added time constraints and a new server at work, I will no longer be able to access the site during normal weekdays. What I intend to do from now on is whenever I find anything which looks of interest I will post it up the night before. In most cases I am not going to have any prices to work with but I will put the price I consider to be value and go from there. I am going to reduce the amount of analysis but I cannot see any other way of fitting it all in unless this happens.
I have had a decent look at tomorrows cards and I will be getting involved with one horse at the moment assuming the price is available tomorrow. The horse is an old favourite of mine and tomorrow sees it running under optimal conditions in a race which doesn't look overly competitive. The race in question is the 2.25 Newmarket and the selection will be Storyland provided that I can achieve 4/1 or better. The RP forecast is 6/1 but it is currently a little shorter on BF and I'm not holding my breath about getting 6's on this one tomorrow!
There are a few good reasons why I think this warrants backing tomorrow. Firstly it is a horse which needs a long straight to bring the best out in her and the trainer has managed to run her in races at courses which don't reaaly suit her style so far this season. She has also been the victim of at least two poor rides from Miss Milczarek this season and I'm hoping that in an 8 runner race on one of the widest tracks in the country, that she manages to find a way through tomorrow!! The horse won the race last year (admittedly off a 12lb lower mark) but she then followed up with a convincing win off a mark just 3lb lower than tomorrows. Fast ground is ideal, this is her time of year, and she is back running against her own sex in a much easier race than the ones she has been competing in all season. The other key factor is the lack of quality opposition. The fav is priced up on connections and whilst she could still prove to be well handicapped she was hardly impressive when winning a Class 4 handicap on the AW last time and I would be keen to take her on at around 6/4. Most of the others are stepping up in class and/or have doubts about the trip and ground and it really does look an obvious selection to me. Not exactly sure how I'm going to stake the bet as there are only the dead eight declared but more than likely will be going win only.
If I get chance in the morning I will update with the prices and my intended staking.
One or two people have asked me about the whereabouts of Mick. Unfortunately he is not going to be involved in the blog from now on and that means that there will be no further texts or phone messages going out, however he is still following the racing and hopefully he may return if his circumstances change at all. As most people know this was his blog originally and I'd like to thank him for all his help and efforts over the last six months as I appreciate how time consuming it can be.
I hope I haven't rambled on too much and hopefully the new style approach will generate a bit of interest amongst you racing enthusiasts!!!
Bye for now!
Friday 18 September 2009
Saturday 22 August 2009
Saturday Night Bath Time!
Good morning,
It's nice to be back refreshed and well after a little family break and whilst I haven't had much opportunity to see any racing I have been keeping an eye on the results and checking out the form.
Today there is one bet for me:
6.15 BATH - DINGAAN - 2PTS WIN (available at 4/1 with Bet365 & Skybet, 7/2 generally)
The racing today looks pretty tough again and I wasn't interested in any of the bigger meetings at Sandown or Chester, I am keen on the selection at Bath this evening and whilst it is carrying a 4lb penalty for winning over C & D last month there is every chance that this will be able to shrug this off now that it has rediscovered the secret of getting its head in front!!
The horse has been rated much higher in the past and indeed has won off a mark as high as 88 (admittedly two years ago) but it has been running very creditably this season and some of the pieces of form have been franked and look very strong in the context of this race. The horse has been campaigned largely over 6 and 7F but its last two starts over the mile trip have seen it run two very encouraging races. Two starts ago it finished 2nd to a very progressive horse of Sir Michael Stoute's that has since won again and was then sent off a very short favourite in a much better race at Haydock off a 14lb higher mark. Three further winners have come from the horses that finished behind Dingaan that day and the form looks rock solid. Last time out on its first visit to Bath, Dingaan won a shade cosily after not getting the clearest of runs and again the form has been franked with the second winning since and the 4th winning twice. A 4lb rise doesn't look enough to prevent this from running a big race again today and I'm very keen on its chances. On the downside the horse has looked a little bit of a dodgepot in the past but it certainly hasn't shirked the issue the last twice and David Probert is 1 win and 1 second from his two rides on the horse. The stable is firing in the winners at the moment (10 wins from 45 in the last two seasons at the course) and they may just have found the key to this horse once again!!
The opposition looks largely uninspiring and there are a couple of 3yos in the line up who should help us to get a decent price. The likely favourite is Roger Charlton's Cheam Forever who has won its last two starts however it now races off a 10lb higher mark than its first success and is up in grade. The other market principal is Carbon Hoofprint trained by Peter Makin and this one tries to follow up its latest C & D success off a 5lb higher mark. Once again the horse steps up in class and the win came on much softer ground so it remains to be seen whether it will be as effective today. The horse had been getting beaten in lower class races off lower marks and creeping up the handicap as a consequence and whilst improvement from these two 3yos is likely they are going to have to post career bests to finish in front of Dingaan.
Champain Sands will possibly improve on its latest performances back on firm ground where it has posted two of its previous wins and it doesn't look too badly handicapped on past form.
Desert Dreamer finished in front of Dingaan in June at Chester but is 6lb worse off at the weights for 3 lengths and it looks an out and out 7F horse to me, indeed it has only placed once from 8 attempts at a mile or more!
Don Pietro has been running over 10F in claimers and sellers and whilst it is on a winning mark it hasn't won in 11 attempts in a class 4 and I'm not sure that today will be the day.
I Confess ran well at Chester yesterday but looks as though its optimal trip is 7F and it has yet to win after 24 attempts on turf so this cannot be fancied today.
Thunder Gorge will have to defy a career high mark and whilst the trip and ground should be fine this one looks like it needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before it returns to the winners enclosure.
La Rosa Nostra returns to 8F for the first time since its maiden win and it could bring about a little improvement.however it has yet to win in this class of race and I'm happy to overlook it today.
Top Seed looks to be way out of form and is trying a trip much shorter than ideal and can quickly be dismissed.
A race where there are doubts about many of the horses and I will be disappointed if Dingaan doesn't go close this evening.
Nothing else which I feel is worthy of a mention so I'll leave it there and hope to start back with a decent winner!!
Good luck!
EDIT - Apologies but there will be no texts or telephone messages for the next 2 weeks as Mick has had to go abroad with work and he cannot access the phone as normal.
It's nice to be back refreshed and well after a little family break and whilst I haven't had much opportunity to see any racing I have been keeping an eye on the results and checking out the form.
Today there is one bet for me:
6.15 BATH - DINGAAN - 2PTS WIN (available at 4/1 with Bet365 & Skybet, 7/2 generally)
The racing today looks pretty tough again and I wasn't interested in any of the bigger meetings at Sandown or Chester, I am keen on the selection at Bath this evening and whilst it is carrying a 4lb penalty for winning over C & D last month there is every chance that this will be able to shrug this off now that it has rediscovered the secret of getting its head in front!!
The horse has been rated much higher in the past and indeed has won off a mark as high as 88 (admittedly two years ago) but it has been running very creditably this season and some of the pieces of form have been franked and look very strong in the context of this race. The horse has been campaigned largely over 6 and 7F but its last two starts over the mile trip have seen it run two very encouraging races. Two starts ago it finished 2nd to a very progressive horse of Sir Michael Stoute's that has since won again and was then sent off a very short favourite in a much better race at Haydock off a 14lb higher mark. Three further winners have come from the horses that finished behind Dingaan that day and the form looks rock solid. Last time out on its first visit to Bath, Dingaan won a shade cosily after not getting the clearest of runs and again the form has been franked with the second winning since and the 4th winning twice. A 4lb rise doesn't look enough to prevent this from running a big race again today and I'm very keen on its chances. On the downside the horse has looked a little bit of a dodgepot in the past but it certainly hasn't shirked the issue the last twice and David Probert is 1 win and 1 second from his two rides on the horse. The stable is firing in the winners at the moment (10 wins from 45 in the last two seasons at the course) and they may just have found the key to this horse once again!!
The opposition looks largely uninspiring and there are a couple of 3yos in the line up who should help us to get a decent price. The likely favourite is Roger Charlton's Cheam Forever who has won its last two starts however it now races off a 10lb higher mark than its first success and is up in grade. The other market principal is Carbon Hoofprint trained by Peter Makin and this one tries to follow up its latest C & D success off a 5lb higher mark. Once again the horse steps up in class and the win came on much softer ground so it remains to be seen whether it will be as effective today. The horse had been getting beaten in lower class races off lower marks and creeping up the handicap as a consequence and whilst improvement from these two 3yos is likely they are going to have to post career bests to finish in front of Dingaan.
Champain Sands will possibly improve on its latest performances back on firm ground where it has posted two of its previous wins and it doesn't look too badly handicapped on past form.
Desert Dreamer finished in front of Dingaan in June at Chester but is 6lb worse off at the weights for 3 lengths and it looks an out and out 7F horse to me, indeed it has only placed once from 8 attempts at a mile or more!
Don Pietro has been running over 10F in claimers and sellers and whilst it is on a winning mark it hasn't won in 11 attempts in a class 4 and I'm not sure that today will be the day.
I Confess ran well at Chester yesterday but looks as though its optimal trip is 7F and it has yet to win after 24 attempts on turf so this cannot be fancied today.
Thunder Gorge will have to defy a career high mark and whilst the trip and ground should be fine this one looks like it needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before it returns to the winners enclosure.
La Rosa Nostra returns to 8F for the first time since its maiden win and it could bring about a little improvement.however it has yet to win in this class of race and I'm happy to overlook it today.
Top Seed looks to be way out of form and is trying a trip much shorter than ideal and can quickly be dismissed.
A race where there are doubts about many of the horses and I will be disappointed if Dingaan doesn't go close this evening.
Nothing else which I feel is worthy of a mention so I'll leave it there and hope to start back with a decent winner!!
Good luck!
EDIT - Apologies but there will be no texts or telephone messages for the next 2 weeks as Mick has had to go abroad with work and he cannot access the phone as normal.
Friday 21 August 2009
Decided Against It!!!!
I am quite keen on one running tonight at Salisbury but I've decided to leave it alone and its a no bet day on my return.
The horse I liked was Solar Graphite in the 7.30 race and I'm convinced that this one is still a well handicapped horse and well capable of winning from this mark. I saw its last two runs and things haven't really panned out for it, at Newmarket it got to the front and idled off a slow pace and was run out of it by a decent Mark Johnston horse and then last time it was well supported at Sandown but nothing went right for it. There was no gallop at all and the winner pinched the race from the front but Solar Graphite had no luck in running and ran on well when the race was over. My main concern for not playing tonight is the possibility of a lack of pace again and whilst the trainer continues to have his runners in decent form (another 3 winners at York today) at odds of about 7/2 I don't think it is worth chancing.
I hope to be back tomorrow with any possible bets for Saturday.
The horse I liked was Solar Graphite in the 7.30 race and I'm convinced that this one is still a well handicapped horse and well capable of winning from this mark. I saw its last two runs and things haven't really panned out for it, at Newmarket it got to the front and idled off a slow pace and was run out of it by a decent Mark Johnston horse and then last time it was well supported at Sandown but nothing went right for it. There was no gallop at all and the winner pinched the race from the front but Solar Graphite had no luck in running and ran on well when the race was over. My main concern for not playing tonight is the possibility of a lack of pace again and whilst the trainer continues to have his runners in decent form (another 3 winners at York today) at odds of about 7/2 I don't think it is worth chancing.
I hope to be back tomorrow with any possible bets for Saturday.
Back From My Break!!
Good morning and it's nice to be back refreshed and raring to go again after my holiday. I have been keeping a close eye on the results over the last couple of weeks and it was quite fitting that my old friend Sir Isaac finally came good as this has been put up on here on more occasions than any other horse (3 times) and was clearly well handicapped but just needed to have everything fall right for it. Unfortunately for us it didn't condescend to do this when I had put it up but it did bring a wry smile to my face when I saw it had won!!
I have had a good look at todays cards and there are several races which could be of interest. The York Ebor meeting has been going on all week and I have to admit that finding the winners at these meetings is usually a very difficult pastime and looking at the results this week it has been no exception to the rule!!! I will more than likely be concentrating my efforts away from York and I like the look of one at Salisbury this evening although I need to check a few more things out befoe wading in.
I'll be back on here later if there is anything doing and as usual any bets will be posted pre race.
Gags
I have had a good look at todays cards and there are several races which could be of interest. The York Ebor meeting has been going on all week and I have to admit that finding the winners at these meetings is usually a very difficult pastime and looking at the results this week it has been no exception to the rule!!! I will more than likely be concentrating my efforts away from York and I like the look of one at Salisbury this evening although I need to check a few more things out befoe wading in.
I'll be back on here later if there is anything doing and as usual any bets will be posted pre race.
Gags
Saturday 8 August 2009
A Few I Liked But.......
unfortunately I couldn't find anything that I was comfortable putting up as an account selection.
Saturdays are a notoriously tricky day as there is so much racing going on and it always seems to be very competitive stuff. I will mention the horses I thought could go well but all in all the races were either too tough or the prices were too short.
2.10 Haydock - Angel Rock (7/1) and Lowther (8/1)
5.30 Haydock - Final Victory (5/2)
4.05 Ascot - Proclaim (11/2)
5.10 Newmarket - Flapper (9/2)
4.20 Redcar - Wovoka (15/8) NAP
I will be back in about ten days time and in the meantime all the best and be lucky!!
Saturdays are a notoriously tricky day as there is so much racing going on and it always seems to be very competitive stuff. I will mention the horses I thought could go well but all in all the races were either too tough or the prices were too short.
2.10 Haydock - Angel Rock (7/1) and Lowther (8/1)
5.30 Haydock - Final Victory (5/2)
4.05 Ascot - Proclaim (11/2)
5.10 Newmarket - Flapper (9/2)
4.20 Redcar - Wovoka (15/8) NAP
I will be back in about ten days time and in the meantime all the best and be lucky!!
Friday 7 August 2009
Another Tough Day....
Todays racing has the same look and feel to it as yesterdays and with the inconsistent weather causing ground changes all over the place it is a quiet day again and I have nothing strong enough for the account.
Musselburgh looks the pick of the action and I could see Strensall going well in the 8.10 race however the shape of the race is not particularly good and there is a short priced favourite which probably should win.
I will be back on here tomorrow before taking a 10 day break for my annual holiday so lets hope we can sign off in style with a decent selection tomorrow!!!
Musselburgh looks the pick of the action and I could see Strensall going well in the 8.10 race however the shape of the race is not particularly good and there is a short priced favourite which probably should win.
I will be back on here tomorrow before taking a 10 day break for my annual holiday so lets hope we can sign off in style with a decent selection tomorrow!!!
Thursday 6 August 2009
Nothing To Get Excited About!!
I have to say that todays racing was pretty uninspiring stuff and it was a very easy decision to conclude that there was not account bet. The only meeting of any interest was Haydock and I'm a little unsure of how the ground will be riding given the RP forecast of Good/Firm for the 6F races but Soft for all the others!
The races I liked were the longer races anyway and I based my analysis on the forecast soft ground. The ones which I liked all be it not strongly enough for the account were Mull Of Killough in the 3.40 and Hucking Heat in the 4.40 and thought that both of these could go well. Mull of Killough looks to be progressing nicely and on a strict interpretation of his 3/4 length defeat behind Firebet looks to be well in here off a mark of 89. Firebet has gone on to win a decent handicap at Newmarket which has produced other winners and last time was runner up in a Group 3 contest and is now rated 108. The ground would be a slight unknown but with a dry day forecast I think it may not be as bad as they think and this could go close. 5/2 is the top price (it was 3's when I was looking last night) and there is not a great deal to get excited about there.
Hucking Heat has won over the course and caught my eye when meeting with plenty of interference on its latest start in a Ladies riders handicap at Beverley. It has won over this course before and has won off higher marks on the AW and will act on soft ground. Many of its rivals today are either out of form, don't appear to like soft ground or are high enough in the handicap but it looks a trappy race overall and at single figure prices I'm not really interested in getting involved.
I'll be back tomorrow and hopefully there will be more of interest!!
The races I liked were the longer races anyway and I based my analysis on the forecast soft ground. The ones which I liked all be it not strongly enough for the account were Mull Of Killough in the 3.40 and Hucking Heat in the 4.40 and thought that both of these could go well. Mull of Killough looks to be progressing nicely and on a strict interpretation of his 3/4 length defeat behind Firebet looks to be well in here off a mark of 89. Firebet has gone on to win a decent handicap at Newmarket which has produced other winners and last time was runner up in a Group 3 contest and is now rated 108. The ground would be a slight unknown but with a dry day forecast I think it may not be as bad as they think and this could go close. 5/2 is the top price (it was 3's when I was looking last night) and there is not a great deal to get excited about there.
Hucking Heat has won over the course and caught my eye when meeting with plenty of interference on its latest start in a Ladies riders handicap at Beverley. It has won over this course before and has won off higher marks on the AW and will act on soft ground. Many of its rivals today are either out of form, don't appear to like soft ground or are high enough in the handicap but it looks a trappy race overall and at single figure prices I'm not really interested in getting involved.
I'll be back tomorrow and hopefully there will be more of interest!!
Tuesday 4 August 2009
Nothing For Wednesday
Well the rain certainly came down today but unfortuntely so much so that it caused both flat meetings to have to abandon races and therefore the selection never got a chance to prove its worth!!!
There will be nothing from me during Wednesday day as I'm away with work and won't be able to post anything however there is an interesting looking card at Kempton in the evening and one or two look worthy of a closer look.
If there is anything doing I'll post back on here tomorrow evening.
There will be nothing from me during Wednesday day as I'm away with work and won't be able to post anything however there is an interesting looking card at Kempton in the evening and one or two look worthy of a closer look.
If there is anything doing I'll post back on here tomorrow evening.
Singing In The Rain?
There is one bet for me today:
4.10 Chepstow - Dancing Storm 2pt win (available at 7/2 Sky, 100/30 with Lads, Hills, Coral & Bet365)
When I initially looked at this race I was put off by the shape of the race as there are only 7 runners. After spending a little while going through the runners I decided that one of them looked as though it had everything in its favour and that could not be said of many of the other runners.
The selection is Dancing Storm and this looks to have an excellent chance today under optimal conditions. The horse is currently rated 56 after starting the season on a mark of 61 and is back down to a winning rating having won previously over C & D off 56 and 58. More significant is the fact that it has not run on soft ground this year and this is something that it clearly needs to give of its best. Todays ground is likely to be good/soft at least and this should suit this son of Trans Island down to the ground (no pun intended). Last time out it ran a very encouraging race at Salisbury where the ground was riding fast, making all the running and having everything off the bridle with a couple of furlongs to go. It eventually got collared and ended up fourth but it has dropped a further pound in the ratings and that run showed that it was returning to a bit of form. The other positives are the return to the saddle of Fergus Sweeney who has partnered it in both its course and distance wins, the trainer has an excellent record at this track (nearly 20% in the last 5 years) and the trainer jockey combo at Chepstow is even better (27%). The trainer has hit a little bit of form in the last month or so and with conditions in its favour today I think it will run a big race.
The market leader is the John Dunlop trained Manere Bay and whilst it is unexposed and has ran some creditable races I would prefer to look elsewhere. The trainer has gone 27 runners without a winner which is a concern and the sire has not had a winner at this distance as yet (0-11).
Next in is Respite which is trained by a personal favourite of mine William Haggas. As ever this yard has to be respected but you need to take a leap of faith to back this one today at 7/2 after it's last run where it was never travelling and ended up beaten 16 lengths. Yes you can always forgive a horse a poor run but it has only got a Kempton maiden win to its name thus far and is priced on expectation rather than what it has shown on the course. One to oppose today I reckon.
Inis Bottom doesn't look particularly well handicapped and disappointed on its only start on a soft surface and the trainer has an appalling record at the course with only 1 win from 58 attempts. Enough to put me off today!
Oriental Girl is quite interesting and is handicapped to win again. It has won over C & D before, admittedly on faster going, but has got some winning form on a softer surface off a 4lb higher mark than todays. Last time out it ran in the same race as the selection and travelled well on the wide outside before meeting with a little interference a furlong or so out. It was allowed to come home in its own time after that and is slightly better off with the selection today. Having said that the sire is only 1-34 at the course and the jockey booking doesn't look too significant (1-29 in last five years for this trainer). It could be the one to give the selection most to do but I much prefer the chances of Dancing Storm under todays conditions.
Nesayem is from a trainer who is in a bit of form but he has not trained a winner at the course as yet (0-9). The horse has only run in six maidens so far and whilst she has shown glimpses of ability I think a step up in trip would probably suit and not sure today is the day.
The final one is Rock Exhibition who has been running over hurdles since coming over to this country from Ireland. She has won on heavy ground over there in a fillies maiden but what that form amounts to is debatable and she has shown nothing since to think she is about to win again. Dropping down the handicap all the time but might need a further drop before she returns to the winners enclosure and definitely not one you could back unless you had some inside information!!
Overall I thought the selection was a decent bet at odds of 3/1+ and I will be disappointed if she doesn''t at least give me a good run for my money!!!
4.10 Chepstow - Dancing Storm 2pt win (available at 7/2 Sky, 100/30 with Lads, Hills, Coral & Bet365)
When I initially looked at this race I was put off by the shape of the race as there are only 7 runners. After spending a little while going through the runners I decided that one of them looked as though it had everything in its favour and that could not be said of many of the other runners.
The selection is Dancing Storm and this looks to have an excellent chance today under optimal conditions. The horse is currently rated 56 after starting the season on a mark of 61 and is back down to a winning rating having won previously over C & D off 56 and 58. More significant is the fact that it has not run on soft ground this year and this is something that it clearly needs to give of its best. Todays ground is likely to be good/soft at least and this should suit this son of Trans Island down to the ground (no pun intended). Last time out it ran a very encouraging race at Salisbury where the ground was riding fast, making all the running and having everything off the bridle with a couple of furlongs to go. It eventually got collared and ended up fourth but it has dropped a further pound in the ratings and that run showed that it was returning to a bit of form. The other positives are the return to the saddle of Fergus Sweeney who has partnered it in both its course and distance wins, the trainer has an excellent record at this track (nearly 20% in the last 5 years) and the trainer jockey combo at Chepstow is even better (27%). The trainer has hit a little bit of form in the last month or so and with conditions in its favour today I think it will run a big race.
The market leader is the John Dunlop trained Manere Bay and whilst it is unexposed and has ran some creditable races I would prefer to look elsewhere. The trainer has gone 27 runners without a winner which is a concern and the sire has not had a winner at this distance as yet (0-11).
Next in is Respite which is trained by a personal favourite of mine William Haggas. As ever this yard has to be respected but you need to take a leap of faith to back this one today at 7/2 after it's last run where it was never travelling and ended up beaten 16 lengths. Yes you can always forgive a horse a poor run but it has only got a Kempton maiden win to its name thus far and is priced on expectation rather than what it has shown on the course. One to oppose today I reckon.
Inis Bottom doesn't look particularly well handicapped and disappointed on its only start on a soft surface and the trainer has an appalling record at the course with only 1 win from 58 attempts. Enough to put me off today!
Oriental Girl is quite interesting and is handicapped to win again. It has won over C & D before, admittedly on faster going, but has got some winning form on a softer surface off a 4lb higher mark than todays. Last time out it ran in the same race as the selection and travelled well on the wide outside before meeting with a little interference a furlong or so out. It was allowed to come home in its own time after that and is slightly better off with the selection today. Having said that the sire is only 1-34 at the course and the jockey booking doesn't look too significant (1-29 in last five years for this trainer). It could be the one to give the selection most to do but I much prefer the chances of Dancing Storm under todays conditions.
Nesayem is from a trainer who is in a bit of form but he has not trained a winner at the course as yet (0-9). The horse has only run in six maidens so far and whilst she has shown glimpses of ability I think a step up in trip would probably suit and not sure today is the day.
The final one is Rock Exhibition who has been running over hurdles since coming over to this country from Ireland. She has won on heavy ground over there in a fillies maiden but what that form amounts to is debatable and she has shown nothing since to think she is about to win again. Dropping down the handicap all the time but might need a further drop before she returns to the winners enclosure and definitely not one you could back unless you had some inside information!!
Overall I thought the selection was a decent bet at odds of 3/1+ and I will be disappointed if she doesn''t at least give me a good run for my money!!!
Sunday 2 August 2009
Missed The Boat!!!!
I was all set to have a bet today but unfortunately the price has now gone and I'm not prepared to get involved with something once the value has gone!!
A quick word on the last week or so, I feel as though I'm reading the races pretty well in the main and I've taken a lot of heart from the fact that most of the selections have been placed at least even if we were win only!!!
Yesterday was another frustrating day where the first selection has been given another tactically inept ride from Kirsty (I will not be touching any more with her on) and I think we were a tad unfortunate to not collect on the win part of the bet. Maybe I'm looking through rose tinted spectacles but somehow she has managed to find trouble in running on the widest course in the country and after giving the winner several lengths start she has finished best of all and ended a never nearer third. To be fair the winner has won a shade cosily but it would have been interesting if she had managed to get a trouble free passage. I am certain that Sir Isaac is a well handicapped horse and I'm sure it will eventually win the race it deserves but as far as I'm concerned I'm finished with the horse!!
The second selection has run extremely disappointingly and I cannot offer any excuses other than it can be very hit and miss and unfortunately it has chosen to run a stinker. No real damage done on the day but it would be nice to get a few more winners on the board!!
Today I was keen on one in the 2.55 Chester. 2YO nurseries are not really the kind of race that I get involved with but I am quite keen on the chances of Tukitinyasok from the Roger Fisher yard. The horse has only run three times and all three of these have been over 7 furlongs, but after watching all three starts again I don't think the drop to 6 furlongs will inconvenience it as it has plenty of early pace and travels really well. It has the plum draw in stall 1 and if it breaks well I expect it to be a tough nut to pass. The track should be no problem as it railed really well at Ayr and its latest run looks a cut above anything todays rivals can boast. The others in here are much of a muchness and generally fairly exposed and there must be doubts as to whether some of these would be better at 5 furlongs or worthy of their current handicap marks.
The horse was available at a general 4/1 this morning but is now a standout 3/1 with Lads and as short as 9/4 in a place!! I expect a big run from it but I can't advise it on the account at the current price.
A quick word on the last week or so, I feel as though I'm reading the races pretty well in the main and I've taken a lot of heart from the fact that most of the selections have been placed at least even if we were win only!!!
Yesterday was another frustrating day where the first selection has been given another tactically inept ride from Kirsty (I will not be touching any more with her on) and I think we were a tad unfortunate to not collect on the win part of the bet. Maybe I'm looking through rose tinted spectacles but somehow she has managed to find trouble in running on the widest course in the country and after giving the winner several lengths start she has finished best of all and ended a never nearer third. To be fair the winner has won a shade cosily but it would have been interesting if she had managed to get a trouble free passage. I am certain that Sir Isaac is a well handicapped horse and I'm sure it will eventually win the race it deserves but as far as I'm concerned I'm finished with the horse!!
The second selection has run extremely disappointingly and I cannot offer any excuses other than it can be very hit and miss and unfortunately it has chosen to run a stinker. No real damage done on the day but it would be nice to get a few more winners on the board!!
Today I was keen on one in the 2.55 Chester. 2YO nurseries are not really the kind of race that I get involved with but I am quite keen on the chances of Tukitinyasok from the Roger Fisher yard. The horse has only run three times and all three of these have been over 7 furlongs, but after watching all three starts again I don't think the drop to 6 furlongs will inconvenience it as it has plenty of early pace and travels really well. It has the plum draw in stall 1 and if it breaks well I expect it to be a tough nut to pass. The track should be no problem as it railed really well at Ayr and its latest run looks a cut above anything todays rivals can boast. The others in here are much of a muchness and generally fairly exposed and there must be doubts as to whether some of these would be better at 5 furlongs or worthy of their current handicap marks.
The horse was available at a general 4/1 this morning but is now a standout 3/1 with Lads and as short as 9/4 in a place!! I expect a big run from it but I can't advise it on the account at the current price.
Saturday 1 August 2009
Busy Start To August!
It's another busy days racing and I have got two selections for the account today.
2.45 Newmarket - 1pt ew Sir Isaac (available at 8/1 generally)
4.40 Thirsk - 1pt ew Squirtle (available at 12/1 Stan James, 11/1 Sporting, 10/1 Corals & Bet365, 9/1 generally)
I'm in danger of following Sir Isaac over a cliff and today will be the last time that I throw any money at him!! We have put this horse up twice before and it was unlucky in running the first time before finishing fourth (I think it merited 2nd) and the last time it traded very short before being fairly comfortably beaten by a well handicapped Godolphin horse. Last time out it was very disappointing but the ground was extremely fast that day and the race was a 4 runner tactical affair and it appeared to hate every minute of it, lugging in behind, and I'm prepared to forgive it. Today will suit it much better and its current mark of 78 looks generous to me given the way some of its previous race form has worked out. 3 runs ago the 1st and 3rd have both won again off higher marks, 2 starts ago the 1st and 3rd have won since so I really believe that this is a well handicapped horse.
Todays easier ground will be much more to his liking and I think the track should suit. The trainer is one of my favourites and he has an uncanny knack of keeping his horses under the handicappers radar and he has a good record in this race with a win and a place from 4 starts. There are a number of rivals who could be improving but most of them are racing off higher marks than they have won from or have had opportunities from the same marks before and I'm very hopeful that we will get a good run from Sir Isaac today .
The second selection looks to have been laid out for this race and has a course record of 2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts. The only time it disappointed was in a much tougher race off a mark of 67 and today it runs off 59 which is much nearer to where it should be. The horse does have the profile of an in and out performer but it was second in this race last year off a mark of 55. It then won over C & D off 57 very comfortably and with a decent claimer taking 5lbs off it today it is definitely on a winnable mark. 1st time up on turf this year it ran out a tidy winner over 17f at Warwick when it was expected to need the run and I get the feeling that we can draw a line through the run at Yarmouth 5 days ago when it failed to get competitive.
The opposition does not look overly inspiring. The favourite Black or Red has been put up 9lbs for winning very easily over this distance at Ffos Las and could still be well handicapped. I am always keen to take these types on as it had already gone up 3lbs for finishing 2nd the time before and at 6/4 it's an easy one to oppose despite the jockey booking looking significant with a strike rate of 40% for the yard.
Secret Ploy is interesting and has won off this mark but it has only ran once since 2007 and I wouldn't be keen on backing this today second run back. Jackday is fairly consistent and was just touched off over C & D last time but has gone up 5lbs as a result and is 8lbs above its only winning mark. A typical horse that pays the price for consistency but not a regular winner!!
Miss Keck doesn't look as though she is particularly well handicapped, Danzatrice would probably appreciate faster ground, Unawatuna is fairly unexposed but doesn't look like a winner in waiting from this mark, Sir Sandicliffe looks to be the selections second string and the other two don't look good enough.
Overall I just think that at a double figure price it is a much bigger price than it should be and is worthy of a bet.
2.45 Newmarket - 1pt ew Sir Isaac (available at 8/1 generally)
4.40 Thirsk - 1pt ew Squirtle (available at 12/1 Stan James, 11/1 Sporting, 10/1 Corals & Bet365, 9/1 generally)
I'm in danger of following Sir Isaac over a cliff and today will be the last time that I throw any money at him!! We have put this horse up twice before and it was unlucky in running the first time before finishing fourth (I think it merited 2nd) and the last time it traded very short before being fairly comfortably beaten by a well handicapped Godolphin horse. Last time out it was very disappointing but the ground was extremely fast that day and the race was a 4 runner tactical affair and it appeared to hate every minute of it, lugging in behind, and I'm prepared to forgive it. Today will suit it much better and its current mark of 78 looks generous to me given the way some of its previous race form has worked out. 3 runs ago the 1st and 3rd have both won again off higher marks, 2 starts ago the 1st and 3rd have won since so I really believe that this is a well handicapped horse.
Todays easier ground will be much more to his liking and I think the track should suit. The trainer is one of my favourites and he has an uncanny knack of keeping his horses under the handicappers radar and he has a good record in this race with a win and a place from 4 starts. There are a number of rivals who could be improving but most of them are racing off higher marks than they have won from or have had opportunities from the same marks before and I'm very hopeful that we will get a good run from Sir Isaac today .
The second selection looks to have been laid out for this race and has a course record of 2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts. The only time it disappointed was in a much tougher race off a mark of 67 and today it runs off 59 which is much nearer to where it should be. The horse does have the profile of an in and out performer but it was second in this race last year off a mark of 55. It then won over C & D off 57 very comfortably and with a decent claimer taking 5lbs off it today it is definitely on a winnable mark. 1st time up on turf this year it ran out a tidy winner over 17f at Warwick when it was expected to need the run and I get the feeling that we can draw a line through the run at Yarmouth 5 days ago when it failed to get competitive.
The opposition does not look overly inspiring. The favourite Black or Red has been put up 9lbs for winning very easily over this distance at Ffos Las and could still be well handicapped. I am always keen to take these types on as it had already gone up 3lbs for finishing 2nd the time before and at 6/4 it's an easy one to oppose despite the jockey booking looking significant with a strike rate of 40% for the yard.
Secret Ploy is interesting and has won off this mark but it has only ran once since 2007 and I wouldn't be keen on backing this today second run back. Jackday is fairly consistent and was just touched off over C & D last time but has gone up 5lbs as a result and is 8lbs above its only winning mark. A typical horse that pays the price for consistency but not a regular winner!!
Miss Keck doesn't look as though she is particularly well handicapped, Danzatrice would probably appreciate faster ground, Unawatuna is fairly unexposed but doesn't look like a winner in waiting from this mark, Sir Sandicliffe looks to be the selections second string and the other two don't look good enough.
Overall I just think that at a double figure price it is a much bigger price than it should be and is worthy of a bet.
Friday 31 July 2009
Nothing Strong Enough Today.....
I thought todays card were quite difficult and whilst I expect one or two horses to run quite well there are enough reasons for not getting involved with them today.
As I have already mentioned I try and avoid Goodwood whenever possible however I do like the chances of Safari Sunrise in the 2.45 today. I has a few quid on at a decent price on Sunday and it showed a tremendous turn of foot in coming from last to first indside the last two furlongs. When you consider that it was checked in its run and still won a shade cosily, it might be able to defy the penalty today. This seasons emerging talent Freddie Tylicki again takes the ride and you really are getting a 3lb pull when he is in the saddle. The horse is still well treated on some of its old form and from stall 14 I think it could go close......only my dislike of Goodwood prevents me from getting involved!!
Over at Bangor another horse which I am watching closely is Danny Zuko, and after running on surfaces which were too soft, it finally gets a nice fast surface to run on today. Last time out I mentioned it as one to watch and it was still going ok and would probably have finished second before all but falling at the last fence at Cartmel. Today it returns to a course where it has winning hurdles form and I think this could run better than the 7/1 odds sugget. Two things put me off today, I would have preferred to see Jason Maguire on it and not the 7lb claimer, and also the presence of a potential handicap good thing of Jonjo O'Neills, which makes its chase debut.
Finally a little mention for a mate of mines horse, Word of Warning which runs in the 3.40 Bangor. This horse has definitely got a race in him and was fancied last time before the torrential rain in Perth put paid to its chances. Today it has the fast ground that it needs and I think a big run is expected. The Vaughan yard has a potential party spoiler though in the shape of Zafar who makes its debut for the ayrd today and the from of its latest run in Ireland has been franked several times and you get the impression that there is more to come.
A good days racing but unfoirtunately nothing really strong enough to get too heavily involved in.
I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts.
As I have already mentioned I try and avoid Goodwood whenever possible however I do like the chances of Safari Sunrise in the 2.45 today. I has a few quid on at a decent price on Sunday and it showed a tremendous turn of foot in coming from last to first indside the last two furlongs. When you consider that it was checked in its run and still won a shade cosily, it might be able to defy the penalty today. This seasons emerging talent Freddie Tylicki again takes the ride and you really are getting a 3lb pull when he is in the saddle. The horse is still well treated on some of its old form and from stall 14 I think it could go close......only my dislike of Goodwood prevents me from getting involved!!
Over at Bangor another horse which I am watching closely is Danny Zuko, and after running on surfaces which were too soft, it finally gets a nice fast surface to run on today. Last time out I mentioned it as one to watch and it was still going ok and would probably have finished second before all but falling at the last fence at Cartmel. Today it returns to a course where it has winning hurdles form and I think this could run better than the 7/1 odds sugget. Two things put me off today, I would have preferred to see Jason Maguire on it and not the 7lb claimer, and also the presence of a potential handicap good thing of Jonjo O'Neills, which makes its chase debut.
Finally a little mention for a mate of mines horse, Word of Warning which runs in the 3.40 Bangor. This horse has definitely got a race in him and was fancied last time before the torrential rain in Perth put paid to its chances. Today it has the fast ground that it needs and I think a big run is expected. The Vaughan yard has a potential party spoiler though in the shape of Zafar who makes its debut for the ayrd today and the from of its latest run in Ireland has been franked several times and you get the impression that there is more to come.
A good days racing but unfoirtunately nothing really strong enough to get too heavily involved in.
I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts.
Thursday 30 July 2009
Magical Musselburgh!!
There is one strong bet today:
8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)
This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.
The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!
Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!
The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!
Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.
Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.
Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.
Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.
As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!
A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!
ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.
8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)
This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.
The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!
Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!
The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!
Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.
Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.
Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.
Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.
As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!
A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!
ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.
Wednesday 29 July 2009
Nothing For Today!
I didn't think much of todays racing and it was an easy decision for me to leave it alone. I have always found Goodwood a notoriously difficult track to get right and time and time again my horses seem to get hampered or have no luck in running!
I do think that the filly Ghanaati looks a bit special and if the ground remains fast I think she will win the Sussex Stakes today. I thought her display in winning the 1000 Guineas was sensational and she broke the course record but the victory in the Coronation Stakes was even more impressive and once again she clocked an amazing time. With only 4 runs under her belt she is open to further improvement but the general price of 9/4 is not exactly giving much away and she does face the fellas for the first time. A fascinating race but not one to be throwing much money at.
Just one other horse to mention is Norwegian Dancer in the 4.00 Goodwood. This horse caught my eye on both of its last starts when winning very impressively over 10f at Chester. Today it steps up to 12f for the first time and I think it could bring about more improvement. The jockey gets on well with the horse and in a very tough looking race a price of around 20/1 looks reasonable if you're looking to get involved.
Lets hope there is a bit more for us to go at tomorrow!
I do think that the filly Ghanaati looks a bit special and if the ground remains fast I think she will win the Sussex Stakes today. I thought her display in winning the 1000 Guineas was sensational and she broke the course record but the victory in the Coronation Stakes was even more impressive and once again she clocked an amazing time. With only 4 runs under her belt she is open to further improvement but the general price of 9/4 is not exactly giving much away and she does face the fellas for the first time. A fascinating race but not one to be throwing much money at.
Just one other horse to mention is Norwegian Dancer in the 4.00 Goodwood. This horse caught my eye on both of its last starts when winning very impressively over 10f at Chester. Today it steps up to 12f for the first time and I think it could bring about more improvement. The jockey gets on well with the horse and in a very tough looking race a price of around 20/1 looks reasonable if you're looking to get involved.
Lets hope there is a bit more for us to go at tomorrow!
Tuesday 28 July 2009
Who Needs Glorious Goodwood???
I'm issuing an early message today as I believe that the two selections I have could both be well supported. I thought the Beverley card was excellent today and it was really interesting going through the last five handicaps on the card, indeed there may be a further bet but with the possibility of a non runner I'm going to wait a while.
I have two account bets at this stage:
4.20 Beverley - Nevada Desert - 1pt ew (available at 12/1 with Tote, Coral,11/1 with Paddy Power , Blue Sq) this is after the 2 non runners
6.00 Beverley - Fossgate - 1pt ew (available at 10/1 with Bet365, 9's generally)
I will go into detail later on but both of these horses are weighted to win and love the course.
Nevada Desert looks to have been laid out for this race today and has won the last two running of this race from higher marks. The trainer and jockey have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up in handicaps at this course (40%) and from a good draw (stall 11) I think this will go close. The odds of 14/1 and 16's in a place are way out of line in my book and it warrants a bet.
Fossgate is a horse that has an excellent course record as well and showed signs of coming to hand on its latest run over C & D. That day it travelled really well and hit the front a furlong out only to fade away and finish 6th. Assuming that this has come on again for the run, combined with a further drop in the weights (it actually has to carry 2lbs overweight but still on a good mark), it has a decent draw in stall 9 and is 2.5 times the price of Shaylee whom it is weighted to finish very close to. The only slight negative I can find is the jockey, Royston French is 0-17 when riding for James Bethell however he is a decent jockey and maybe today will be the day he breaks his duck!!
There may be a further bet later on but I think these are overpriced and warrant an early move.
Good luck
I have two account bets at this stage:
4.20 Beverley - Nevada Desert - 1pt ew (available at 12/1 with Tote, Coral,11/1 with Paddy Power , Blue Sq) this is after the 2 non runners
6.00 Beverley - Fossgate - 1pt ew (available at 10/1 with Bet365, 9's generally)
I will go into detail later on but both of these horses are weighted to win and love the course.
Nevada Desert looks to have been laid out for this race today and has won the last two running of this race from higher marks. The trainer and jockey have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up in handicaps at this course (40%) and from a good draw (stall 11) I think this will go close. The odds of 14/1 and 16's in a place are way out of line in my book and it warrants a bet.
Fossgate is a horse that has an excellent course record as well and showed signs of coming to hand on its latest run over C & D. That day it travelled really well and hit the front a furlong out only to fade away and finish 6th. Assuming that this has come on again for the run, combined with a further drop in the weights (it actually has to carry 2lbs overweight but still on a good mark), it has a decent draw in stall 9 and is 2.5 times the price of Shaylee whom it is weighted to finish very close to. The only slight negative I can find is the jockey, Royston French is 0-17 when riding for James Bethell however he is a decent jockey and maybe today will be the day he breaks his duck!!
There may be a further bet later on but I think these are overpriced and warrant an early move.
Good luck
Monday 27 July 2009
Ran Out Of Time!!!
I've not managed to find as much time as I hoped this afternoon to check out the form and therefore I can't advise anything for the account. The horse I was interested in was Magnifico in the 7.55 Uttoxeter but there are only the dead eight running at the minute and the price is shorter than I was expecting. I still expect this horse to run well and the recent rain at the track will be in its favour. It is dropped into selling company for the first time in its career and wouldn't have to improve much, if any, on some of its recent runs.
A few doubts with runners and the price are enough to put me off though, so we will just have to hope that there is something of more interest tomorrow with Glorious Goodwood kicking off.
A few doubts with runners and the price are enough to put me off though, so we will just have to hope that there is something of more interest tomorrow with Glorious Goodwood kicking off.
Where's The Summer Gone?
Yesterdays selection ran a respectable race and managed to get in the frame so not a lot of damage done. I was quite pleased that the early morning favourite which I was keen to oppose was out of the frame and the one I made the biggest danger won the race, so not the worst read of a race ever!!!
Todays racing is pretty poor and I could find nothing of any real interest at either Southwell or Yarmouth. I was quite keen on the chances of Charles Parnell in the 3.15 at Southwell as it looks to be a certainty to place and I think it will push the favourite close. Unfortunately the price is shorter than I was hoping for and not interested in getting involved now.
There is one runner at Uttoxeter this evening which I am interested in but with all the rain about non runners are the problem and I'm going to leave it until much later before I make a decision on the race.
I'll be back on here later with my thoughts and the phone message will be updated by 6pm if there is anything doing.
Todays racing is pretty poor and I could find nothing of any real interest at either Southwell or Yarmouth. I was quite keen on the chances of Charles Parnell in the 3.15 at Southwell as it looks to be a certainty to place and I think it will push the favourite close. Unfortunately the price is shorter than I was hoping for and not interested in getting involved now.
There is one runner at Uttoxeter this evening which I am interested in but with all the rain about non runners are the problem and I'm going to leave it until much later before I make a decision on the race.
I'll be back on here later with my thoughts and the phone message will be updated by 6pm if there is anything doing.
Sunday 26 July 2009
Horses For Courses!!
We've had a decent couple of days and it's been nice to find a couple of winners for the account. I'm hoping that we can continue the recent run with one account selection today:
3.00 Carlisle - Rowan Lodge 1pt ew (available at 4/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred & WH, although 9/2 was available when the texts were sent out and the phone line updated)
Rowan Lodge has a great record in these types of races and goes particularly well at Carlisle with a record of 3 wins and a 4th from just 4 starts. The jockey has been successful on him 5 times and clearly they are a force to be reckoned with at this venue in claiming grade. On official figures the horse has a bit to find with a couple of todays rivals but these official marks can be flattering and I would prefer to back a horse which you know is running consistently to its current mark than chance something which has run nowhere near to its official rating of late.
Todays favourite is Hiccups and it tries 8f for the first time in a career that spans 65 starts. I can't say it won't get the trip but the sire stats are 0-23 over a mile which hardly inspires confidence! It has been doing most of its running around sharp left hand turning tracks such as Thirsk and Catterick and todays test will be a completely different kettle of fish. It can't be discounted as it is very well in with the selection on official ratings however I'm happy to take this horse on today. A bigger danger may be Karl Burkes runner, Moody Tunes, who comes here off the back of a decent run yesterday at Newcastle. It loves cut in the ground and is one of the higher rated in the field but I prefer Rowan Lodge over this C & D today.
A case could be made for the Swinbank runner, Ozone Trustee, however it has a bit to find with Moody Tunes on yesterdays running and happy to take it on.
Of the rest only Portrush Storm makes any appeal and whilst this could be in the shake up (booking of Seb Sanders is quite eyecatching) it would have to improve markedly on what it has been showing of late.
Overall I thought Rowan Lodge was a decent bet to make the frame at least and I make it the most likely winner.
Elsewhere there is a decent card at Ascot and I will be having a few quid on Storyland in the 4.35 race. This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and todays race looks tailor made for a big run. The race is highly competitive however and that prevents me from putting it up as an account bet.
All the best
Gags
3.00 Carlisle - Rowan Lodge 1pt ew (available at 4/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred & WH, although 9/2 was available when the texts were sent out and the phone line updated)
Rowan Lodge has a great record in these types of races and goes particularly well at Carlisle with a record of 3 wins and a 4th from just 4 starts. The jockey has been successful on him 5 times and clearly they are a force to be reckoned with at this venue in claiming grade. On official figures the horse has a bit to find with a couple of todays rivals but these official marks can be flattering and I would prefer to back a horse which you know is running consistently to its current mark than chance something which has run nowhere near to its official rating of late.
Todays favourite is Hiccups and it tries 8f for the first time in a career that spans 65 starts. I can't say it won't get the trip but the sire stats are 0-23 over a mile which hardly inspires confidence! It has been doing most of its running around sharp left hand turning tracks such as Thirsk and Catterick and todays test will be a completely different kettle of fish. It can't be discounted as it is very well in with the selection on official ratings however I'm happy to take this horse on today. A bigger danger may be Karl Burkes runner, Moody Tunes, who comes here off the back of a decent run yesterday at Newcastle. It loves cut in the ground and is one of the higher rated in the field but I prefer Rowan Lodge over this C & D today.
A case could be made for the Swinbank runner, Ozone Trustee, however it has a bit to find with Moody Tunes on yesterdays running and happy to take it on.
Of the rest only Portrush Storm makes any appeal and whilst this could be in the shake up (booking of Seb Sanders is quite eyecatching) it would have to improve markedly on what it has been showing of late.
Overall I thought Rowan Lodge was a decent bet to make the frame at least and I make it the most likely winner.
Elsewhere there is a decent card at Ascot and I will be having a few quid on Storyland in the 4.35 race. This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and todays race looks tailor made for a big run. The race is highly competitive however and that prevents me from putting it up as an account bet.
All the best
Gags
Saturday 25 July 2009
One For This Evening...
One bet this evening for me:
6.00 Salisbury - Gallego - 1pt ew (available at 9/2 with Lads, Sportingbet, Stan James and WH)
Gallego has a record of 3 wins from 3 runs at this course and was victorious in this race last year off a 3lb lower mark but then went on to win at Sandown off a mark 4lb higher than todays. Last time out he came with his customary last to first run and won over 7f and a 3lb rise hardly looks insurmountable. The ground should be ideal and the jockey has struck up a fine rapport with the horse so everything looks in place for a big run.
A quick word on the price, this appears to be quite weak in the market and I'm hoping that the shrewd money comes nearer the off for it.
There are one or two rivals who could have improvement in them but I'll be disappointed if Gallego isn't in the shake up at the finish.
Good luck
Gags
6.00 Salisbury - Gallego - 1pt ew (available at 9/2 with Lads, Sportingbet, Stan James and WH)
Gallego has a record of 3 wins from 3 runs at this course and was victorious in this race last year off a 3lb lower mark but then went on to win at Sandown off a mark 4lb higher than todays. Last time out he came with his customary last to first run and won over 7f and a 3lb rise hardly looks insurmountable. The ground should be ideal and the jockey has struck up a fine rapport with the horse so everything looks in place for a big run.
A quick word on the price, this appears to be quite weak in the market and I'm hoping that the shrewd money comes nearer the off for it.
There are one or two rivals who could have improvement in them but I'll be disappointed if Gallego isn't in the shake up at the finish.
Good luck
Gags
More Of The same?
A welcome winning day yesterday and whilst I don't have a selection for the account at this stage there is a very strong possibility that there will be something for this evening.
There is plenty of racing today and a number of races which I looked at in some depth. I was quite keen on one at Newcastle but it seems that I wasn't the only one and the price was smashed from 9/1 into 5/1 in the space of an hour!!! My only possibility of an account bet runs this evening and I would prefer to wait until nearer the off as the price seems a little unstable at the minute and not going to rush when it's not necessary!!
Anyway I will let you have my thoughts on the other races but in each case there were enough reasons to leave it alone.
Ascot
2.40 - JIRA.....looks the form pick but a tough race and no value in the price
3.50 - SECRET SOCIETY...looks very progressive and the big field and fast pace should suit. Race tends to be won by 4yos so stats against it but I don't think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest but at 7/1 happy to watch.
4.25 - CONDUIT....the return to 12f is a massive plus and this looks the likeliest winner to me. Only problem is the price of 7/4 and I believe it would prefer a more galloping track.
Newmarket
2.20 - KING CHARLES...this is a horse that has been knocking on the door for some time but finally delivered last time out. Up 5lbs but still could be capable of winning again now it has remembered how to win again. At 3/1 its short enough to put me off even in a fairly weak looking race.
Newcastle
4.10 - URSULA...bolted up the other day and I think it will defy the penalty under ideal conditions. Only 7 runners and a top price of 2/1 is not giving much away.
4.45 - ARABIAN SPIRIT.....I'm quite keen on this one today. It is feasibly weighted and has the soft ground that it needs for the first time this season. Dunlop has a 21% strike rate at the course but I'm a little put off by the booking of Dale Gibson but it should still run well and 7/1 looks a fair price.
5.20 - BRAVELY..this would have been a bet today if the 9/1 that was available earlier still existed!! I suspect it has been put up by a large tipping service as the price has been slashed into a top price 5/1 and I can't get involved with it now. The ground looks ideal and I think it could be a masterstroke dropping it back to the minimum distance as it seems to travel really well.
I will be back later if I'm betting this evening.
Good luck
Gags
There is plenty of racing today and a number of races which I looked at in some depth. I was quite keen on one at Newcastle but it seems that I wasn't the only one and the price was smashed from 9/1 into 5/1 in the space of an hour!!! My only possibility of an account bet runs this evening and I would prefer to wait until nearer the off as the price seems a little unstable at the minute and not going to rush when it's not necessary!!
Anyway I will let you have my thoughts on the other races but in each case there were enough reasons to leave it alone.
Ascot
2.40 - JIRA.....looks the form pick but a tough race and no value in the price
3.50 - SECRET SOCIETY...looks very progressive and the big field and fast pace should suit. Race tends to be won by 4yos so stats against it but I don't think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest but at 7/1 happy to watch.
4.25 - CONDUIT....the return to 12f is a massive plus and this looks the likeliest winner to me. Only problem is the price of 7/4 and I believe it would prefer a more galloping track.
Newmarket
2.20 - KING CHARLES...this is a horse that has been knocking on the door for some time but finally delivered last time out. Up 5lbs but still could be capable of winning again now it has remembered how to win again. At 3/1 its short enough to put me off even in a fairly weak looking race.
Newcastle
4.10 - URSULA...bolted up the other day and I think it will defy the penalty under ideal conditions. Only 7 runners and a top price of 2/1 is not giving much away.
4.45 - ARABIAN SPIRIT.....I'm quite keen on this one today. It is feasibly weighted and has the soft ground that it needs for the first time this season. Dunlop has a 21% strike rate at the course but I'm a little put off by the booking of Dale Gibson but it should still run well and 7/1 looks a fair price.
5.20 - BRAVELY..this would have been a bet today if the 9/1 that was available earlier still existed!! I suspect it has been put up by a large tipping service as the price has been slashed into a top price 5/1 and I can't get involved with it now. The ground looks ideal and I think it could be a masterstroke dropping it back to the minimum distance as it seems to travel really well.
I will be back later if I'm betting this evening.
Good luck
Gags
Friday 24 July 2009
Busy Day!
I'm going to play in three races today and whilst I'm keeping the stakes small I think there are valid reasons for backing them all. The bets are:
4.25 Ascot - Hendersyde - 1PT win (available at 7/2 WH, 10/3 generally)
5.20 Thirsk - Blessed Place - 1PT ew (available at 7/1 Sky, 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally)
6.20 Chepstow - Queen Excalibur - 1PT win (available at 33/1 SJ, 28/1 VC, 25/1 Sky, generally 20/1)
Once again time has dictated that I have to keep my analysis brief but hopefully they will run their races.
Briefly, Hendersyde is the form pick in the race and should be a shorter price IMO against a horse that has won very easily in poor races but gone up the handicap markedly as a result (Alanbrooke). It is clearly improving but it might not get an easy lead like it has on its last two starts and I think it is too short.
Blessed Place ran a good race last time, is well handicapped and finished a close second in this race last year. There are several horses reopposing today and on the formline of that race I make BP the best in at the weights. It is a front runner who has got the ideal draw and I expected it to be a shorter price today.
Queen Excalibur is a hugely speculative selection but I think I may have spotted something that most punters will not have seen. It ran a very creditable race over hurdles last week when runner up in a seller at Worcester and I saw the trainer interviewed prior to the race and he was expecting a big run. It has never won on the flat but a run over course and distance last July was what caught my eye. That day it was 10lb out of the handicap and yet it only just got pipped on the line at an SP of 50/1. Today it runs off its correct mark (which is lower than last years), it goes on soft ground and we know that the horse is in a reasonable bit of form. This could bomb out but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance.
Good luck if you play.
Gags
4.25 Ascot - Hendersyde - 1PT win (available at 7/2 WH, 10/3 generally)
5.20 Thirsk - Blessed Place - 1PT ew (available at 7/1 Sky, 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally)
6.20 Chepstow - Queen Excalibur - 1PT win (available at 33/1 SJ, 28/1 VC, 25/1 Sky, generally 20/1)
Once again time has dictated that I have to keep my analysis brief but hopefully they will run their races.
Briefly, Hendersyde is the form pick in the race and should be a shorter price IMO against a horse that has won very easily in poor races but gone up the handicap markedly as a result (Alanbrooke). It is clearly improving but it might not get an easy lead like it has on its last two starts and I think it is too short.
Blessed Place ran a good race last time, is well handicapped and finished a close second in this race last year. There are several horses reopposing today and on the formline of that race I make BP the best in at the weights. It is a front runner who has got the ideal draw and I expected it to be a shorter price today.
Queen Excalibur is a hugely speculative selection but I think I may have spotted something that most punters will not have seen. It ran a very creditable race over hurdles last week when runner up in a seller at Worcester and I saw the trainer interviewed prior to the race and he was expecting a big run. It has never won on the flat but a run over course and distance last July was what caught my eye. That day it was 10lb out of the handicap and yet it only just got pipped on the line at an SP of 50/1. Today it runs off its correct mark (which is lower than last years), it goes on soft ground and we know that the horse is in a reasonable bit of form. This could bomb out but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance.
Good luck if you play.
Gags
Tuesday 21 July 2009
Thanks and see you soon
First of all many thanks to everyone who has sent through emails following on from events over the past few weeks. It has obviously been a tough time and I am going to take a proper break from posting on here. As suggested previously Gags will look after things on his own while I am away, although I will still update the phone message as and when he is betting.
I will be returning to posting on here and studying form properly on Saturday 5th September. Hopefully between now and then Gags can come up with a few winners and help pay for my time off. Until then, thanks, good luck and stay healthy.
I will be returning to posting on here and studying form properly on Saturday 5th September. Hopefully between now and then Gags can come up with a few winners and help pay for my time off. Until then, thanks, good luck and stay healthy.
Saturday 18 July 2009
Couple Of Bets Today...
I have decided to play in a couple of races today and after watching the first race I'm happy that the ground is riding pretty soft and that will suit the selections:
2.20 Newbury - Festoso - 1pt ew (available at 9/1)
2.50 Newbury - Izzibizzi - 1pt win (available at 16/1)
Both of these horses require plenty of cut in the ground to produce their best and with many of their rivals unlikely to find it in their favour I think that these two are worth a punt at the prices.
Festoso did us a favour the other month and has won a listed race over this trip in heavy ground and it clearly relishes these conditions. On form it has a bit to find with some and whilst I make War Artist the most likely winner we need to see whether its as good on this ground. High Standing has gone up considerably in the weights after winning well in some good handicaps but is another unproven on the ground and in this class. Prime Defender has done all its winning on fast ground and the only other one aside from the selection with form on soft ground is Madame Trop Vite and that is yet to prove it gets 6F. Hopeful of a big run from Festoso and the terms are good.
Izzibizzi is a little speculative, however it should never be the 16/1 outsider in this field. It won over C & D last year on soft ground and that day it had two of todays rivals behind it. It meets both of them on better terms today yet incredibly is 3 or 4 times the price. The trainer is not in the best of form so that is a concern but at the odds it has to be worth a small stakes bet.
2.20 Newbury - Festoso - 1pt ew (available at 9/1)
2.50 Newbury - Izzibizzi - 1pt win (available at 16/1)
Both of these horses require plenty of cut in the ground to produce their best and with many of their rivals unlikely to find it in their favour I think that these two are worth a punt at the prices.
Festoso did us a favour the other month and has won a listed race over this trip in heavy ground and it clearly relishes these conditions. On form it has a bit to find with some and whilst I make War Artist the most likely winner we need to see whether its as good on this ground. High Standing has gone up considerably in the weights after winning well in some good handicaps but is another unproven on the ground and in this class. Prime Defender has done all its winning on fast ground and the only other one aside from the selection with form on soft ground is Madame Trop Vite and that is yet to prove it gets 6F. Hopeful of a big run from Festoso and the terms are good.
Izzibizzi is a little speculative, however it should never be the 16/1 outsider in this field. It won over C & D last year on soft ground and that day it had two of todays rivals behind it. It meets both of them on better terms today yet incredibly is 3 or 4 times the price. The trainer is not in the best of form so that is a concern but at the odds it has to be worth a small stakes bet.
Thursday 16 July 2009
A Bet At Last!
There is one bet for today:
8.40 Doncaster - Best Prospect - 1pt each way (available at 7/1 generally)
This horse is a bridle horse which always travels well in its races but invariably fails to deliver at the business end. That said it has won 6 times on the flat and twice over hurdles so it can hardly be called a perennial loser!! Jamie Spencer gets on really well with the horse and has won four times on it and today the horse runs over a course and distance that it has been successful over before and gets the soft ground that it requires. The horse has won off marks higher than this on 4 occasions and ran a fair race last time whern 3rd at Newcastle just under three weeks ago.
The race does have a competitive look to it and you can give chances to Charlie Tokyo and Rangefinder now they have conditions which should suit but on the whole it faces a number of rivals who might not like the conditions as much as the selection. The horse will be played late and hopefully it will condescend to finish the job off if it gets close enough.
Elsewhere on the day I was quite keen on Danny Zuko in the 2.30 Cartmel but this horse really needs the ground on the fast side and with doubts as to how it will be riding then at 4/1 I can't get involved. Definitely one to keep an eye on when things come in it's favour though!
Over at Bath in the 8.55 race I thought Espy could go close and looks like it is ready to return to the winners enclosure any time soon , however there are one or two others in the field that look like they may have been laid out for the race, Heaven for example, and at odds of around 6/1 I am happy to watch.
Good luck if you play
Gags
8.40 Doncaster - Best Prospect - 1pt each way (available at 7/1 generally)
This horse is a bridle horse which always travels well in its races but invariably fails to deliver at the business end. That said it has won 6 times on the flat and twice over hurdles so it can hardly be called a perennial loser!! Jamie Spencer gets on really well with the horse and has won four times on it and today the horse runs over a course and distance that it has been successful over before and gets the soft ground that it requires. The horse has won off marks higher than this on 4 occasions and ran a fair race last time whern 3rd at Newcastle just under three weeks ago.
The race does have a competitive look to it and you can give chances to Charlie Tokyo and Rangefinder now they have conditions which should suit but on the whole it faces a number of rivals who might not like the conditions as much as the selection. The horse will be played late and hopefully it will condescend to finish the job off if it gets close enough.
Elsewhere on the day I was quite keen on Danny Zuko in the 2.30 Cartmel but this horse really needs the ground on the fast side and with doubts as to how it will be riding then at 4/1 I can't get involved. Definitely one to keep an eye on when things come in it's favour though!
Over at Bath in the 8.55 race I thought Espy could go close and looks like it is ready to return to the winners enclosure any time soon , however there are one or two others in the field that look like they may have been laid out for the race, Heaven for example, and at odds of around 6/1 I am happy to watch.
Good luck if you play
Gags
Wednesday 15 July 2009
Little Of Interest Today.....
I thought todays cards were very uninspiring and considereing we are supposed to be in the middle of the flat turf season the fact that there is only one full turf meeting at Catterick is rather surprising to say the least....or maybe not when you consider the people who are organising the fixtures!!!
Anyway with all the rain around and the clerks of the courses seeming unable to give accurate going descriptions it is probably not a day for getting too heavily involved. I am having a small trade on Sea Salt in the 3.00 Catterick at the current odds of 14/1 and if the ground is riding on the soft side this will be more suited than many of its rivals. The draw in 12 would normally be a huge negative, particularly over the sprint distances at Catterick, but it can work the opposite way when the ground rides soft. The runners tend to head for the stands rail on such occasions and hence the 12 box would suddenly be a big advantage. Too speculative to go mad about and it would need to return to form after some below average performances but having changed stables to Ruth Barr (the grand-daughter of the legendary sprint trainer David Chapman) then it might rekindle some of its old appetite for the game.
There are a couple that are potentially interesting at Kempton this evening and if there is any action it will be on the phone message by 6pm.
Just a quick word on yesterday, the info was pretty much spot on with the first mention going off a heavily backed 9/4 favourite and running out a cosy winner and the second selection being heavily backed into 4/1 and trading much shorter in running before finishing second. Hopefully I can continue to find horses like this and I'll get some winners back on the main account before too long!
Good luck
Gags
Anyway with all the rain around and the clerks of the courses seeming unable to give accurate going descriptions it is probably not a day for getting too heavily involved. I am having a small trade on Sea Salt in the 3.00 Catterick at the current odds of 14/1 and if the ground is riding on the soft side this will be more suited than many of its rivals. The draw in 12 would normally be a huge negative, particularly over the sprint distances at Catterick, but it can work the opposite way when the ground rides soft. The runners tend to head for the stands rail on such occasions and hence the 12 box would suddenly be a big advantage. Too speculative to go mad about and it would need to return to form after some below average performances but having changed stables to Ruth Barr (the grand-daughter of the legendary sprint trainer David Chapman) then it might rekindle some of its old appetite for the game.
There are a couple that are potentially interesting at Kempton this evening and if there is any action it will be on the phone message by 6pm.
Just a quick word on yesterday, the info was pretty much spot on with the first mention going off a heavily backed 9/4 favourite and running out a cosy winner and the second selection being heavily backed into 4/1 and trading much shorter in running before finishing second. Hopefully I can continue to find horses like this and I'll get some winners back on the main account before too long!
Good luck
Gags
Tuesday 14 July 2009
A Few With Chances......
Todays racing is the typical Tuesday midweek stuff that we have come to expect over the last few years with mainly uninspiring horses running at the holiday resorts!!!!
I was quite keen on one running in the 4.45 at Beverley today but there appears to have been a few quid for this one already this morning and at the current price I can't get involved. The horse in question is Danehillsundance and it is a horse that has been steadily creeping down the weights but definitely showed a bit more sparkle last time over a trip longer than ideal and it is sure to return to the winners circle before too long. A stiff 8f on fast ground looks ideal for it and in a race where there are doubts about several of its rivals (ground, handicap mark) I thought that it was the most likely winner. Happy to swerve the race now the best prices have gone but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Over at Southwell this evening I thought Echo Dancer could go well in the 8.40 now that it is returned to the C & D of its only previous win (admittedly that was in a weak maiden event) however the trainer has an outstanding record at the course and is always one to keep on the right side of. At 9/1 this is arguably worth a small trade but I'm not going to get heavily involved as there are one or two others in the field open to any amount of improvement and therefore a watching brief I'm afraid.
I'll be back on here tomorrow with my thoughts all being well.
Gags
I was quite keen on one running in the 4.45 at Beverley today but there appears to have been a few quid for this one already this morning and at the current price I can't get involved. The horse in question is Danehillsundance and it is a horse that has been steadily creeping down the weights but definitely showed a bit more sparkle last time over a trip longer than ideal and it is sure to return to the winners circle before too long. A stiff 8f on fast ground looks ideal for it and in a race where there are doubts about several of its rivals (ground, handicap mark) I thought that it was the most likely winner. Happy to swerve the race now the best prices have gone but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Over at Southwell this evening I thought Echo Dancer could go well in the 8.40 now that it is returned to the C & D of its only previous win (admittedly that was in a weak maiden event) however the trainer has an outstanding record at the course and is always one to keep on the right side of. At 9/1 this is arguably worth a small trade but I'm not going to get heavily involved as there are one or two others in the field open to any amount of improvement and therefore a watching brief I'm afraid.
I'll be back on here tomorrow with my thoughts all being well.
Gags
Monday 13 July 2009
What Does The Future Hold?
Following Mick's decision to take a break from the blog for the foreseeable future I have been questioning whether to continue with things...I have given it consideration but I believe that the hard work and effort that we have put into things over the last few months would be wasted if I was to bring the curtain down just yet....As we have explained on here on many occasions it's not getting any easier to find the time to post the selections and analysis on the blog however as I will still be looking at the form each night it would seem silly to completely close things down. I have spoken to Mick and he is prepared to continue putting the messages on the phone, although these may not be as frequent as they currently are (especially when he is away on holiday). If I am having a bet I will post it on here and send the email (when possible) but the analysis may be lacking any real depth depending on the time factor.
I would like to thank everybody who has followed the blog over the last few months and hope they will continue to do so and hopefully we will start to see some results that justify the hard work and effort that has gone into providing this information.
On behalf of Mick I would like to thank all the well wishers and i'm sure it won't be long before he is back up to full speed.
All the best
Gags
I would like to thank everybody who has followed the blog over the last few months and hope they will continue to do so and hopefully we will start to see some results that justify the hard work and effort that has gone into providing this information.
On behalf of Mick I would like to thank all the well wishers and i'm sure it won't be long before he is back up to full speed.
All the best
Gags
Sunday 12 July 2009
Always Look On The Bright Side...........
This last week has possibly been one of the worst I have had the misfortune to suffer in my life.
Sadly my mum passed away recently and her funeral was on Wednesday. She was a wonderful lady and we will all miss her very much. We turned her funeral into a celebration of her life as that was what she wanted. As if that wasn't hard enough to deal with, my brother's mother-in-law also passed away recently and her funeral was on Thursday. Obviously it has been a tough time for all of us on a personal level.
Professionally things don't look too great either with news coming on Thursday that up to half of the workforce will probably be made redundant in about 30 days time. Whilst this news hasn't totally surprised me it has come at a tough time and I could have done without it. I believe we will all find out in the next week or so whether our services will be required in future or if we need to find alternative ways of earning a living. I won't dwell too much on either the personal losses or the difficulties at work because that's not what the blog is supposed to be about.
So last of all we have the punting. Well yesterday was a real kick in the teeth. I picked out a couple I felt were worth backing in what time I had to study form. One ran well enough and one ran a shocker, but the real nightmare was in seeing three horses we backed last time out all win yesterday, all in similar races. Aqlaam 15/8 at Ascot, Hits Only Vic 16/1 at York and West End Lad 9/1 at Nottingham ran yesterday how we'd hoped and liked to have seen them run the time before. It just shows how fine the line is between success and failure and I guess when when things aren't going your way then this is what happens.
We will be taking a family holiday at some stage in the near future. My dad could do with a break, indeed I think we all could. Until I come back from that break I won't be putting up any more bets or posts on here. If Gags wishes to continue with things while I am away then that's fine by me, but I need to think about things a little. When I do return it may well be the case that I need to make my living from punting and if I'm going to make that work then I need to get back to to what I do best and what has always worked and made money for me. During the last few weeks there have been far too many speculative bets and that's not how I like betting or how I will be betting in future. I will be getting back to basics, much more along the lines of how things were at the start of the year.
As I've already said Gags may well continue with things while I take a break. I will speak with him later and ask him to post just so everything is clear.
For now, from me, good luck and stay healthy.
Sadly my mum passed away recently and her funeral was on Wednesday. She was a wonderful lady and we will all miss her very much. We turned her funeral into a celebration of her life as that was what she wanted. As if that wasn't hard enough to deal with, my brother's mother-in-law also passed away recently and her funeral was on Thursday. Obviously it has been a tough time for all of us on a personal level.
Professionally things don't look too great either with news coming on Thursday that up to half of the workforce will probably be made redundant in about 30 days time. Whilst this news hasn't totally surprised me it has come at a tough time and I could have done without it. I believe we will all find out in the next week or so whether our services will be required in future or if we need to find alternative ways of earning a living. I won't dwell too much on either the personal losses or the difficulties at work because that's not what the blog is supposed to be about.
So last of all we have the punting. Well yesterday was a real kick in the teeth. I picked out a couple I felt were worth backing in what time I had to study form. One ran well enough and one ran a shocker, but the real nightmare was in seeing three horses we backed last time out all win yesterday, all in similar races. Aqlaam 15/8 at Ascot, Hits Only Vic 16/1 at York and West End Lad 9/1 at Nottingham ran yesterday how we'd hoped and liked to have seen them run the time before. It just shows how fine the line is between success and failure and I guess when when things aren't going your way then this is what happens.
We will be taking a family holiday at some stage in the near future. My dad could do with a break, indeed I think we all could. Until I come back from that break I won't be putting up any more bets or posts on here. If Gags wishes to continue with things while I am away then that's fine by me, but I need to think about things a little. When I do return it may well be the case that I need to make my living from punting and if I'm going to make that work then I need to get back to to what I do best and what has always worked and made money for me. During the last few weeks there have been far too many speculative bets and that's not how I like betting or how I will be betting in future. I will be getting back to basics, much more along the lines of how things were at the start of the year.
As I've already said Gags may well continue with things while I take a break. I will speak with him later and ask him to post just so everything is clear.
For now, from me, good luck and stay healthy.
Saturday 11 July 2009
Saturday 11th July - Two Bets
Gags is out today and has not had the opportunity to look at any of the racing on offer so I warn you in advance that the bets posted here are entirely my own work. Only time will tell if I've made the right decisions but I can assure you I've had decent bets on both horses. Hopefully the time and effort I've put in will be rewarded and they'll run well and generate a profit.
My first bet runs in the sprint due off at 330 at Chester. If you can forgive my selection his last run when he missed the break somewhat then I think
330 Chester HOH HOH HOH 1 point each way at 8/1 (incl Bet 365, BOG)
has as good a chance as the favourite which is priced up as short as 6/4. In his previous race he ran well in a listed event at Haydock and before that he finished in front of today's jolly in a Group 3 event at Newmarket. The horse has run well at this venue before and has a decent draw today. His trainer is in pretty good form with 4 wins and 7 places from his last 23 runners during the last month or so. In simple terms I just think the horse is overpriced and I had to get involved at the prices. Obvioulsy I can't guarantee the horse will run to form, no-one can, but if he does well I think he must go close.
Over at York the Listed Race for stayers has the Sir Michael Stoute trained Warringhah at the front of the market, but the one for me is
345 York FRISTON FOREST 2 points each way at 9/2 (Lads, Corals and Hills)
who is proven in the conditions, at the trip and in this class of event. I make him the most likely winner and with question marks over some of his rivals with regards to the distance and / or underfoot conditions I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least make the frame.
Nothing is certain in horseracing but if my selections run up to their best then I believe they'll both go close. Let's hope they run to form and enjoy that little bit of luck that all winners can do with from time to time.
Good luck if you are getting involved today.
My first bet runs in the sprint due off at 330 at Chester. If you can forgive my selection his last run when he missed the break somewhat then I think
330 Chester HOH HOH HOH 1 point each way at 8/1 (incl Bet 365, BOG)
has as good a chance as the favourite which is priced up as short as 6/4. In his previous race he ran well in a listed event at Haydock and before that he finished in front of today's jolly in a Group 3 event at Newmarket. The horse has run well at this venue before and has a decent draw today. His trainer is in pretty good form with 4 wins and 7 places from his last 23 runners during the last month or so. In simple terms I just think the horse is overpriced and I had to get involved at the prices. Obvioulsy I can't guarantee the horse will run to form, no-one can, but if he does well I think he must go close.
Over at York the Listed Race for stayers has the Sir Michael Stoute trained Warringhah at the front of the market, but the one for me is
345 York FRISTON FOREST 2 points each way at 9/2 (Lads, Corals and Hills)
who is proven in the conditions, at the trip and in this class of event. I make him the most likely winner and with question marks over some of his rivals with regards to the distance and / or underfoot conditions I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least make the frame.
Nothing is certain in horseracing but if my selections run up to their best then I believe they'll both go close. Let's hope they run to form and enjoy that little bit of luck that all winners can do with from time to time.
Good luck if you are getting involved today.
Monday 6 July 2009
A Couple We Will Be Trading......
There was nothing strong enough for the account today but we will probably be getting involved trading a couple at Ripon this evening. In the 8.20 we think Tagula Breeze is overpriced at around 16/1 and can't understand why there is such a discrepancy between this one and The Kyllachy Kid on a line through White Shift. It does look a fairly competitive race however and not one for big stakes.
In the 8.50 we think that Regal Lyric could run better than the 20/1 which is currently available with one of the big firms and it would be no surprise to see this one trade a lot shorter in running. Tate and Fenton have a fantastic course record and any of their horses are worth noting at Ripon. The form figures don't overly inspire but if you go far enough back it has got some decent pieces of form in the book which could see it fairly treated off a mark of 67 tonight. Once again it is far too speculative for an account bet but certainly worth a small stakes trade.
As usual all information is being given out daily on the usual standard mobile number 07807 462697 and the blog/texts/emails will be sent out as and when the opportunites arise.
Good Luck!
In the 8.50 we think that Regal Lyric could run better than the 20/1 which is currently available with one of the big firms and it would be no surprise to see this one trade a lot shorter in running. Tate and Fenton have a fantastic course record and any of their horses are worth noting at Ripon. The form figures don't overly inspire but if you go far enough back it has got some decent pieces of form in the book which could see it fairly treated off a mark of 67 tonight. Once again it is far too speculative for an account bet but certainly worth a small stakes trade.
As usual all information is being given out daily on the usual standard mobile number 07807 462697 and the blog/texts/emails will be sent out as and when the opportunites arise.
Good Luck!
Saturday 4 July 2009
No Emails Or Texts Today But..............
Unfortunately I will not be in a position to send out any emails later today. There is also a chance that Mick might not be able to send out any text messages. As a result any bets we are having today will be highlighted on a message which can be accessed by calling the number highlighted on the right hand side of the blog. This is a standard UK mobile number so anyone with a bundle of free minutes attached to their mobile will be able to call and access our views free of charge. To save you all one call there is no bet this afternoon but there may well be something this evening so a call at 6.30pm or shortly afterwards is advised.
Apologies for any inconvenience but circumstances do not always allow us to operate as we would wish.
Good luck if you play today.
Apologies for any inconvenience but circumstances do not always allow us to operate as we would wish.
Good luck if you play today.
Thursday 2 July 2009
A Busy Thursday
A busy day with plenty of decent racing on but unfortunately non-runners are playing havoc with the shape and terms on offer in some races.
We concentrated our efforts this afternoon on Haydock's card where we will be trading a couple but we have decided against putting them up as full account bets. The two races of interest are the 310 and 440.
In the 310 we cannot understand why SEA ROVER is still available at 33/1 with Stan James. This horse has form with one of the market leaders, is significantly better off at the weights for a 2 length defeat, has a record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 runs over the distance and clearly loves fast ground. Sea Rover has a decent jockey on board today and we think he could have a big chance if reverting back to a prominent running style with conditions to suit. The trainer's recent form is not great but his overall form at this venue adds to confidence that the horse could be set to run a big race. Of course there is a doubt about whether today is the day, but we think he could run a huge race and trade at a lot shorter than 33/1, allowing us to enjoy a free bet at the least. That's the plan anyway!
The last on the card looks set up for HAWRIDGE KING and TRIP THE LIGHT to run well and our preference would be for the first named who looks well treated for a return to optimum conditions with a positive jockey booking. We have two small concerns with regards to this race, firstly we've missed the boat as far as the really nice prices are concerned and secondly there are currently 8 set to go to post. Obviously one more non-runner would screw up the each way terms if not ensuring a further shortening of the horses price. Hawridge King is, though, our idea of the most likely winner.
We will be having a look at this evening's cards and any bets will be sent out and put on the message by about 6.30pm.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
We concentrated our efforts this afternoon on Haydock's card where we will be trading a couple but we have decided against putting them up as full account bets. The two races of interest are the 310 and 440.
In the 310 we cannot understand why SEA ROVER is still available at 33/1 with Stan James. This horse has form with one of the market leaders, is significantly better off at the weights for a 2 length defeat, has a record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 runs over the distance and clearly loves fast ground. Sea Rover has a decent jockey on board today and we think he could have a big chance if reverting back to a prominent running style with conditions to suit. The trainer's recent form is not great but his overall form at this venue adds to confidence that the horse could be set to run a big race. Of course there is a doubt about whether today is the day, but we think he could run a huge race and trade at a lot shorter than 33/1, allowing us to enjoy a free bet at the least. That's the plan anyway!
The last on the card looks set up for HAWRIDGE KING and TRIP THE LIGHT to run well and our preference would be for the first named who looks well treated for a return to optimum conditions with a positive jockey booking. We have two small concerns with regards to this race, firstly we've missed the boat as far as the really nice prices are concerned and secondly there are currently 8 set to go to post. Obviously one more non-runner would screw up the each way terms if not ensuring a further shortening of the horses price. Hawridge King is, though, our idea of the most likely winner.
We will be having a look at this evening's cards and any bets will be sent out and put on the message by about 6.30pm.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
Sunday 28 June 2009
Lazy Sunday
There are no bets for us today and nothing really appealed so a day off and our time will be spent in the sun with our families.
Just a quick word about the last few bets, yesterdays selections all ran very poorly. The first two were very well supported but there were no real excuses for either and both ran disappointingly. The later selection was a massive drifter and after watching the race I think we can summise that others nearer to the horses source had a better idea of the way that this one was going to run....enough said!!
Friday saw a welcome winning selection in the shape of Sand Repeal, well backed and running a game race to repel allcomers in the home straight. Unfortunately the other selection didn't run its race and whilst the ground at Newcastle deteriorated and visibility was reduced to next to nothing, the horse has winning form on soft ground so no real excuses.
Lets hope we can start to turn things around sooner rather than later!!!
Just a quick word about the last few bets, yesterdays selections all ran very poorly. The first two were very well supported but there were no real excuses for either and both ran disappointingly. The later selection was a massive drifter and after watching the race I think we can summise that others nearer to the horses source had a better idea of the way that this one was going to run....enough said!!
Friday saw a welcome winning selection in the shape of Sand Repeal, well backed and running a game race to repel allcomers in the home straight. Unfortunately the other selection didn't run its race and whilst the ground at Newcastle deteriorated and visibility was reduced to next to nothing, the horse has winning form on soft ground so no real excuses.
Lets hope we can start to turn things around sooner rather than later!!!
Saturday 27 June 2009
Apologies...
As some of you will have noticed we had a 1PT EW bet on Foundation Room on Thursday which finished a disappointing 5th. Unfortunately as has been the case of late we were unable to get chance to post on the blog but hopefully things will improve on that score in the near future.
Friday 26 June 2009
Friday 26th June
Three bets today and some views on other races we've had a look at as well. First of all the bets we've placed.
445 Folkestone SAND REPEAL 1 point eachway at 4/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
825 Newcastle HANDSOME FALCON 1 point eachway at 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
and a 1 point eachway double at 4/1 and 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
Sand Repeal is today running off a winning mark and is a previous course and distance scorer. Three runs back Sand Repeal went well over course and distance and wasn't beaten that far in a race which has produced the winners in four subsequent races. Conditions today should be ideal, the jockey booking is a positive, and we believe Sand Repeal is set to run a big race. Of his rivals Dazzling Begum is 0/9 at the distance, Generous Lad looks well handicapped but is 1/20 at the distance and 1/21 on turf, Good Effect is 0/10 at the distance, 1/15 on turf and 0/5 on a good to firm surface, Karmei is not good enough, Linby hasn't had a run this season, Mid Valley is 1/18 at the distance and 1/14 on turf and Phoenix Hill doesn't look good enough. You have to respect the connections of Pinnacle Point and Rough Sketch but Sand Repeal is our idea of the most likely winner.
This evening at Newcastle our second bet runs in a race where three horses were of initial interest. Rightly or wrongly the three we concentrated on in this race were Minority Report, Orpen Wide and of course the selection Handsome Falcon. Orpen Wide is 2/3 at the course and conditions would seem ideal for him, but he is running off a career high winning mark and at 7 years of age we think he could probably do with some respite from the handicapper. Minority Report is without doubt well handicapped and if in the mood with a first-time visor fitted he could easily win this race, but we think the most likely winner is Handsome Falcon.
There were a few other races we looked at and whilst we may trade one or two of these we decided against further proper bets.
In the 325 at Doncaster we would take two against the field, Tiger Dream 11/2 and Oh So Saucy 8/1.
The 640 at Chester is a tough looking handicap with two non-runners leaving 15 to go to post, but Glenridding 9/2, Zabeel Tower 12/1 and H Harrison 16/1 are the three we'd want to keep on our side if getting involved.
In the 840 at Newmarket an old friend (lol) tries again. If running up to anywhere near his best Wiggy Smith would be massive at this morning's 12/1.
Finally we felt Brassini, short at 2/1, looked to have everything in his favour in the 850 at Chester. Just too short for us.
So there you have it, our thoughts on the day and our bets as placed this morning. Good luck if you get involved.
445 Folkestone SAND REPEAL 1 point eachway at 4/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
825 Newcastle HANDSOME FALCON 1 point eachway at 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
and a 1 point eachway double at 4/1 and 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)
Sand Repeal is today running off a winning mark and is a previous course and distance scorer. Three runs back Sand Repeal went well over course and distance and wasn't beaten that far in a race which has produced the winners in four subsequent races. Conditions today should be ideal, the jockey booking is a positive, and we believe Sand Repeal is set to run a big race. Of his rivals Dazzling Begum is 0/9 at the distance, Generous Lad looks well handicapped but is 1/20 at the distance and 1/21 on turf, Good Effect is 0/10 at the distance, 1/15 on turf and 0/5 on a good to firm surface, Karmei is not good enough, Linby hasn't had a run this season, Mid Valley is 1/18 at the distance and 1/14 on turf and Phoenix Hill doesn't look good enough. You have to respect the connections of Pinnacle Point and Rough Sketch but Sand Repeal is our idea of the most likely winner.
This evening at Newcastle our second bet runs in a race where three horses were of initial interest. Rightly or wrongly the three we concentrated on in this race were Minority Report, Orpen Wide and of course the selection Handsome Falcon. Orpen Wide is 2/3 at the course and conditions would seem ideal for him, but he is running off a career high winning mark and at 7 years of age we think he could probably do with some respite from the handicapper. Minority Report is without doubt well handicapped and if in the mood with a first-time visor fitted he could easily win this race, but we think the most likely winner is Handsome Falcon.
There were a few other races we looked at and whilst we may trade one or two of these we decided against further proper bets.
In the 325 at Doncaster we would take two against the field, Tiger Dream 11/2 and Oh So Saucy 8/1.
The 640 at Chester is a tough looking handicap with two non-runners leaving 15 to go to post, but Glenridding 9/2, Zabeel Tower 12/1 and H Harrison 16/1 are the three we'd want to keep on our side if getting involved.
In the 840 at Newmarket an old friend (lol) tries again. If running up to anywhere near his best Wiggy Smith would be massive at this morning's 12/1.
Finally we felt Brassini, short at 2/1, looked to have everything in his favour in the 850 at Chester. Just too short for us.
So there you have it, our thoughts on the day and our bets as placed this morning. Good luck if you get involved.
Tuesday 23 June 2009
Blog Update....
It has been a very frustrating time of late and as most of you are probably aware there has been a bit of a lull in proceedings with both the selections and the blog updates. As I mentioned in one of the latest posts we have had to take a different approach to things due to Mick's personal circumstances and not a lot is going to change there for the foreseeable. However I am still in contact with Mick and he is still getting some time to look at the cards but it is impossible for him to commit to anything. On the other hand I have had a very busy last week or so and with work and family issues intervening I have had very little time to really get stuck into the form study. Things should have eased off a little now though and I expect the blog and selections to get back to where we were a couple of weeks back.
We have put a lot of time and effort into the blog over the last few months and whilst the results of late have been a little frustrating we are not a million miles off the mark and I'm certain that we will be able to push on and start moving the P & L upwards and hopefully start hitting a bit more consistency. One of the things that we are learning is just how difficult it is to stake the selections and also making the right call on certain horses. We have discussed plenty of winners between us but dismissed them for one reason or another and then been hugely frustrated with some of the selections which we have put on the account. Clearly when we get this sorted out it can only prove to be more profitable.
This brings me nicely onto a little change which we will be looking to implement in the next few days. One of the biggest difficulties we have is being in a position to send out the emails, texts and update the blog and this was evident last Wednesday. I had a meeting in London and spent 2 and half hours studying the form on the train on the way down. I had already identified one or two that I liked the night before and decided to have 2PTS each way on Moneycantbuymelove in the last race at Ascot. I spoke to Mick and told him that I'd backed it and he asked if I want it texting out as a bet. This is where the problems start as I was not in a position to send out the email nor update the blog and as there are several people who are on the email list but don't receive texts I decided it was unfair as not everybody would be able to receive the information. The horse went off a well backed 9/2 favourite and ran out a comfortable winner.....Yes we both made some decent money on it but it was highly frustrating that it hadn't gone on the blog account and as a result we have decided to introduce an alternative means of people receiving the info. There will be an update on the blog when we are in a position to introduce it but basically we will be offering a daily message which will be posted on a normal mobile number and will be updated each day by 1pm. If there are bets they will be highlighted on this and if there is any need for a call back later in the day then this will be passed on via the message. Anybody can call this number and it will not cost anything if you are on a mobile contract. We don't believe that we can be any fairer than this and the emphasis will now be on the individual to ensure that they get the selections if they so desire. I will still try and update the blog on a regular basis but this change should enable us to work round our current issues with time whilst still getting the selections across to those who wish to receive them. There will be a section provided on the blog in the next few days which will have all the necessary information required.
Sorry for going on so long but just wanted to reiterate that MIP is still very much a work in progress and looking forward to finding plenty of winners over the coming months.
If anybody has any queries at all please get in touch and I'll be happy to discuss any of the above with you.
Regards
Gags
We have put a lot of time and effort into the blog over the last few months and whilst the results of late have been a little frustrating we are not a million miles off the mark and I'm certain that we will be able to push on and start moving the P & L upwards and hopefully start hitting a bit more consistency. One of the things that we are learning is just how difficult it is to stake the selections and also making the right call on certain horses. We have discussed plenty of winners between us but dismissed them for one reason or another and then been hugely frustrated with some of the selections which we have put on the account. Clearly when we get this sorted out it can only prove to be more profitable.
This brings me nicely onto a little change which we will be looking to implement in the next few days. One of the biggest difficulties we have is being in a position to send out the emails, texts and update the blog and this was evident last Wednesday. I had a meeting in London and spent 2 and half hours studying the form on the train on the way down. I had already identified one or two that I liked the night before and decided to have 2PTS each way on Moneycantbuymelove in the last race at Ascot. I spoke to Mick and told him that I'd backed it and he asked if I want it texting out as a bet. This is where the problems start as I was not in a position to send out the email nor update the blog and as there are several people who are on the email list but don't receive texts I decided it was unfair as not everybody would be able to receive the information. The horse went off a well backed 9/2 favourite and ran out a comfortable winner.....Yes we both made some decent money on it but it was highly frustrating that it hadn't gone on the blog account and as a result we have decided to introduce an alternative means of people receiving the info. There will be an update on the blog when we are in a position to introduce it but basically we will be offering a daily message which will be posted on a normal mobile number and will be updated each day by 1pm. If there are bets they will be highlighted on this and if there is any need for a call back later in the day then this will be passed on via the message. Anybody can call this number and it will not cost anything if you are on a mobile contract. We don't believe that we can be any fairer than this and the emphasis will now be on the individual to ensure that they get the selections if they so desire. I will still try and update the blog on a regular basis but this change should enable us to work round our current issues with time whilst still getting the selections across to those who wish to receive them. There will be a section provided on the blog in the next few days which will have all the necessary information required.
Sorry for going on so long but just wanted to reiterate that MIP is still very much a work in progress and looking forward to finding plenty of winners over the coming months.
If anybody has any queries at all please get in touch and I'll be happy to discuss any of the above with you.
Regards
Gags
Tuesday 16 June 2009
Royal Ascot Here We Come.....
Well unfortunately not literally but we do have a selection today!
There is one bet for us today so far:
2.30 ASCOT - 2PT WIN - AQLAAM (available at 11/1 with VC Bet, Lads, Corals, Sporting & Stan James)
Today sees the pinnacle of the flat season with the meeting at Royal Ascot. The racing is always highly competitive and the racing sees all the top class horses competing against one another for the fantastic prize money on offer. Todays card looked difficult as you would expect but we believe that the selection offers a bit of value and warrants a bet.
This race revolves around the Godolphin runner Gladiatorus which is having it's first run for the trainer today. They have kept the faith with the regular jockey and Frankie rides the second string Alexandros. This horse has been producing some awesome times on the clock over the last few months at Nad Al Sheba and has stepped up from handicap company to Group 1 and blown the opposition away with some fantastic front running performances. On official ratings it is the clear pick but it remains to be seen whether a straight mile will suit this one as well as the left hand bends of NAS and at the prices of 5/2 has got to be taken on. Clearly if it is as good as they think it could win this comfortably but we have our doubts and are happy to oppose it.
The next two in the betting are Paco Boy and Main Aim. We believe that there are stamina doubts about both of these today and feel that 7 furlongs would be much more up their street. Paco Boy has run some decent races abut 4/1 about a horse which is yet to prove it gets a truly run mile is on the short side and worth opposing today. Main Aim has been sent off favourite for every race but only on its last two starts has it shown the ability connections believed it capable of. Those two wins whilst impressive on the eye have come in pretty poor races and at 4/1 this is too short for us.
Alexandros was an unlucky loser in the Lockinge Stakes a few weeks back when Frankie lost his whip but whilst it has got some decent form on fast ground we believe that it acts better with cut in the ground and could come up short today.
Cesare is an admirable horse who is very consistent but not sure it is really up to Group 1 class and expect it to find at least one or two too good today.
Arabian Gleam and Dream Eater are held by a couple of these today and hard to see them being good enough, which leaves us with our selection Aqlaam.
Aqlaam was very impressive last year when winning the Jersey Stakes over 7F and the sky looked to be the limit for this horse. It had a setback after that race and didn't run again until the Lockinge Stakes this year where it finished 10th of 11 and was well beaten. Strictly on that run it has no chance today however this horse wants fast ground and it would have needed the run that day. If you consider that Haggas rates this as the best horse in his yard and forgive its last run for the reasons mentioned, then at 11/1 this looks overpriced. There is a chance that it won't get the mile trip, but we believe it will, and the breeding certainly suggests that it should. Happy to play up a few points on this one today in the hope that it returns to the form of last season and that the favourite has been overrated.
There is a possiblity of a bet elsewhere this evening and as always we will let you know if that's the case.
Good Luck
There is one bet for us today so far:
2.30 ASCOT - 2PT WIN - AQLAAM (available at 11/1 with VC Bet, Lads, Corals, Sporting & Stan James)
Today sees the pinnacle of the flat season with the meeting at Royal Ascot. The racing is always highly competitive and the racing sees all the top class horses competing against one another for the fantastic prize money on offer. Todays card looked difficult as you would expect but we believe that the selection offers a bit of value and warrants a bet.
This race revolves around the Godolphin runner Gladiatorus which is having it's first run for the trainer today. They have kept the faith with the regular jockey and Frankie rides the second string Alexandros. This horse has been producing some awesome times on the clock over the last few months at Nad Al Sheba and has stepped up from handicap company to Group 1 and blown the opposition away with some fantastic front running performances. On official ratings it is the clear pick but it remains to be seen whether a straight mile will suit this one as well as the left hand bends of NAS and at the prices of 5/2 has got to be taken on. Clearly if it is as good as they think it could win this comfortably but we have our doubts and are happy to oppose it.
The next two in the betting are Paco Boy and Main Aim. We believe that there are stamina doubts about both of these today and feel that 7 furlongs would be much more up their street. Paco Boy has run some decent races abut 4/1 about a horse which is yet to prove it gets a truly run mile is on the short side and worth opposing today. Main Aim has been sent off favourite for every race but only on its last two starts has it shown the ability connections believed it capable of. Those two wins whilst impressive on the eye have come in pretty poor races and at 4/1 this is too short for us.
Alexandros was an unlucky loser in the Lockinge Stakes a few weeks back when Frankie lost his whip but whilst it has got some decent form on fast ground we believe that it acts better with cut in the ground and could come up short today.
Cesare is an admirable horse who is very consistent but not sure it is really up to Group 1 class and expect it to find at least one or two too good today.
Arabian Gleam and Dream Eater are held by a couple of these today and hard to see them being good enough, which leaves us with our selection Aqlaam.
Aqlaam was very impressive last year when winning the Jersey Stakes over 7F and the sky looked to be the limit for this horse. It had a setback after that race and didn't run again until the Lockinge Stakes this year where it finished 10th of 11 and was well beaten. Strictly on that run it has no chance today however this horse wants fast ground and it would have needed the run that day. If you consider that Haggas rates this as the best horse in his yard and forgive its last run for the reasons mentioned, then at 11/1 this looks overpriced. There is a chance that it won't get the mile trip, but we believe it will, and the breeding certainly suggests that it should. Happy to play up a few points on this one today in the hope that it returns to the form of last season and that the favourite has been overrated.
There is a possiblity of a bet elsewhere this evening and as always we will let you know if that's the case.
Good Luck
Sunday 14 June 2009
Catch Up...
Friday was a little frustrating, with our biggest win bet to date running well but ultimately finding the Godolphin runner too good on the day and whilst it looked as though it would win for a moment (traded 1/4 in running) the winner won a shade cosily in the end. Our other runner refused to go in the stalls and was then withdrawn and again it was frustrating to see the well backed favourite turned over as we believed that we had got a few lengths in hand on this.
Time unfortunately prevented us posting up or getting involved yesterday and due to some serious family matters, Mick will be struggling to find the necessary time to assist with the blog for the foreseeable future. Mick has agreed to leave me solely responsible until things are right for him to return but it is likely to mean that there will be less frequent posts and account bets. I will still be getting stuck into the form as much as before and I'm sure Mick will get some time to look himself, so please be assured that the selections will still have been thoroughly researched and will be carrying our money.
Nothing doing today, Esteem Machine (2.30 Salisbury) ran a very eyecatching race at Sandown last time when it finished 4th but it was a 25/1 shot that day and the secret is out of the bag and a top price of 9/2 doesn't really appeal.
Support Fund (4.15 Salisbury) is also worth a second look and was very unfortunate last season over C & D when poorly riden by a young apprentice. The ground will probably be a little on the fast side today and its probably a race to watch rather than get involved in.
Over at Doncaster there are a couple worth keeping an eye on. In the 3.30 Seamus Shindig who ran much better on its latest start than the bare form figures suggest, however the better prices have gone this morning and it looks a tough race. In the 4.05 race I like the chances of the McCabe runner, Well Of Echoes at the prices, following a decent run last time out and looking sure on breeding to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs today. One or two at the front of the market namely, Hukba and Honours Stride appear to have been priced on connections rather than form and taking these types on is a good way to be profitable in the long run. A few other unexposed types in here make this a little bit speculative for a bet today but I couldn't put anybody off.
Good luck if you get involved today and I will try and keep the blog updated as much as possible.
Time unfortunately prevented us posting up or getting involved yesterday and due to some serious family matters, Mick will be struggling to find the necessary time to assist with the blog for the foreseeable future. Mick has agreed to leave me solely responsible until things are right for him to return but it is likely to mean that there will be less frequent posts and account bets. I will still be getting stuck into the form as much as before and I'm sure Mick will get some time to look himself, so please be assured that the selections will still have been thoroughly researched and will be carrying our money.
Nothing doing today, Esteem Machine (2.30 Salisbury) ran a very eyecatching race at Sandown last time when it finished 4th but it was a 25/1 shot that day and the secret is out of the bag and a top price of 9/2 doesn't really appeal.
Support Fund (4.15 Salisbury) is also worth a second look and was very unfortunate last season over C & D when poorly riden by a young apprentice. The ground will probably be a little on the fast side today and its probably a race to watch rather than get involved in.
Over at Doncaster there are a couple worth keeping an eye on. In the 3.30 Seamus Shindig who ran much better on its latest start than the bare form figures suggest, however the better prices have gone this morning and it looks a tough race. In the 4.05 race I like the chances of the McCabe runner, Well Of Echoes at the prices, following a decent run last time out and looking sure on breeding to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs today. One or two at the front of the market namely, Hukba and Honours Stride appear to have been priced on connections rather than form and taking these types on is a good way to be profitable in the long run. A few other unexposed types in here make this a little bit speculative for a bet today but I couldn't put anybody off.
Good luck if you get involved today and I will try and keep the blog updated as much as possible.
Friday 12 June 2009
A Busy Day.......
There are 3 bets for us today:
3PT WIN - 3.50 SANDOWN - SIR ISAAC (available at 11/2 with Lads, Corals, Hills, Skybet, Betfred & Stan James)
2PT WIN - 8.00 GOODWOOD - LECEILE (available at 9/2 Lads, 4/1 generally) - Withdrawn before race
1PT EW DOUBLE ON BOTH
Today is obviously a very significant day for us and we believe that we have found two horses which have massive chances and we are very keen on them both.
We backed Sir Isaac last time out and after missing the break it was left stone last. Milzcarek opted to try and come up the stands rail and after travelling strongly she was caught in behind horses about 2F out and basically had nowehere to go. Once the gap appeared the horse stayed on nicely without ever really being asked any questions and can definitely be rated better than the literal form. Today it is stepped up another furlong which we believe will help (certainly the breeding suggests it will) and the slightly easier ground should also not be any inconvenience. The sire has a fantastic record with his siblings at this course and the Haggas/Milzcarek combination have a strike rate of over 42% when teaming up together. The selection looks to be a better animal than its current mark and we think this could be rated much higher in the future.
Of its rivals there are obvioiusly one or two potential improvers and chances can be given to Laudatory and Pride of Kings but we feel that these are closer to their true marks than the selection today. The Dunlop runner looks badly handicapped on what it has achieved so far and looks one to oppose at the prices. All in all we would be very disappointed if Sir Isaac doesn't go close today and with a clear run should take all the beating.
The other selection today, Leceile, pipped one of our account bets by the minimum distance last time out when winning a soft ground maiden at Newcastle. The final result doesn't really do Leceile any justice as she had the race won some way out that day and just got tired in the closing stages. That was only her 3rd appearance and foillowed a couple of decent efforts on the AW in races which have thrown any number of winners up since. If you compare the selection with todays favourite, Just Like Silk, on a line with Fortuni, our selection should have the measure of this comfortably and with the Haggas/Milzcarek combination 2 from 2 here and decent sire and trainer stats to boot we think she could be leniently treated off a mark of 75.
Eastern Aria has been doing most of her running on the AW and doesn't appear to be overly well handicapped on form to date, Advisor was well beaten over a furlong less here last time and doesn't appear to be crying out for a longer trip, Hambledon Hill needs to improve but has run one or two fairly encouraging races, Red Suede Shoes makes his turf debut but has proved that it gets the trip at least and the others look as though they need to show improved form to figure here today. We are very sweet on the chances of Leceile and are surprised that she is not favourite today.
All the best
3PT WIN - 3.50 SANDOWN - SIR ISAAC (available at 11/2 with Lads, Corals, Hills, Skybet, Betfred & Stan James)
2PT WIN - 8.00 GOODWOOD - LECEILE (available at 9/2 Lads, 4/1 generally) - Withdrawn before race
1PT EW DOUBLE ON BOTH
Today is obviously a very significant day for us and we believe that we have found two horses which have massive chances and we are very keen on them both.
We backed Sir Isaac last time out and after missing the break it was left stone last. Milzcarek opted to try and come up the stands rail and after travelling strongly she was caught in behind horses about 2F out and basically had nowehere to go. Once the gap appeared the horse stayed on nicely without ever really being asked any questions and can definitely be rated better than the literal form. Today it is stepped up another furlong which we believe will help (certainly the breeding suggests it will) and the slightly easier ground should also not be any inconvenience. The sire has a fantastic record with his siblings at this course and the Haggas/Milzcarek combination have a strike rate of over 42% when teaming up together. The selection looks to be a better animal than its current mark and we think this could be rated much higher in the future.
Of its rivals there are obvioiusly one or two potential improvers and chances can be given to Laudatory and Pride of Kings but we feel that these are closer to their true marks than the selection today. The Dunlop runner looks badly handicapped on what it has achieved so far and looks one to oppose at the prices. All in all we would be very disappointed if Sir Isaac doesn't go close today and with a clear run should take all the beating.
The other selection today, Leceile, pipped one of our account bets by the minimum distance last time out when winning a soft ground maiden at Newcastle. The final result doesn't really do Leceile any justice as she had the race won some way out that day and just got tired in the closing stages. That was only her 3rd appearance and foillowed a couple of decent efforts on the AW in races which have thrown any number of winners up since. If you compare the selection with todays favourite, Just Like Silk, on a line with Fortuni, our selection should have the measure of this comfortably and with the Haggas/Milzcarek combination 2 from 2 here and decent sire and trainer stats to boot we think she could be leniently treated off a mark of 75.
Eastern Aria has been doing most of her running on the AW and doesn't appear to be overly well handicapped on form to date, Advisor was well beaten over a furlong less here last time and doesn't appear to be crying out for a longer trip, Hambledon Hill needs to improve but has run one or two fairly encouraging races, Red Suede Shoes makes his turf debut but has proved that it gets the trip at least and the others look as though they need to show improved form to figure here today. We are very sweet on the chances of Leceile and are surprised that she is not favourite today.
All the best
Thursday 11 June 2009
Great Yarmouth??
There is one bet so far for us today:
1PT WIN - 4.35 YARMOUTH - MAFAHEEM (available at 10/1 with Skybet & Paddy Power, 9/1 generally including BOG bookies)
We are up against it for time again today but this horse is well handicapped on old form and has ran twice over C & D resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse has been mainly campaigned on the AW of late and won off a higher mark than todays in January however it has a very good record after a break (won twice before after a break of 2 months or more) and the trainer is in good form. He also has a better record at Yarmouth than anywhere else and there is a chance that this horse has been targeted at a race like todays for some time.
There are a few of the others that are well handicapped and therefore it is not a strong bet but at 10/1 we believe that this is overpriced today and worth a minimum stakes bet.
There is another horse which we like running today and we will be back later if we are betting.
Good luck
1PT WIN - 4.35 YARMOUTH - MAFAHEEM (available at 10/1 with Skybet & Paddy Power, 9/1 generally including BOG bookies)
We are up against it for time again today but this horse is well handicapped on old form and has ran twice over C & D resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse has been mainly campaigned on the AW of late and won off a higher mark than todays in January however it has a very good record after a break (won twice before after a break of 2 months or more) and the trainer is in good form. He also has a better record at Yarmouth than anywhere else and there is a chance that this horse has been targeted at a race like todays for some time.
There are a few of the others that are well handicapped and therefore it is not a strong bet but at 10/1 we believe that this is overpriced today and worth a minimum stakes bet.
There is another horse which we like running today and we will be back later if we are betting.
Good luck
Wednesday 10 June 2009
Drawn into a bet........
There is one bet for us today so far:
1PT WIN - 3.40 HAYDOCK - CALLIGRAPHER (available at 8/1 with Blue Square, 15/2 Corals and 7/1 generally including BOG bookies)
Todays selection is overpriced in our opinion and there are good reasons to believe that this could run a big race today. It has only had 4 career starts, running down the field on debut before winning a 6F Pontefract maiden. It was then pitched into a conditions race at Lingfield where it was sent off at odds on but finished a well beaten 4th of 5. We believe that the horse was ill at ease around the tight turns of Lingfield and whilst its breeding suggests that it should have had no problem with the all weather surface it may be a case that this is better on the turf. This season it has had one run, a pipeopener in a very decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket where it ran well for a long way before fading and finishing 13th of 14. The winner of the Lingfield race and subsequent 5th in the Newmarket race, Global City, reopposes today and strictly on weights and measures this should beat our selection. This is currently trading at around 11/4 favourite and with a run under its belt and at a track where the trainer and jockey have an excellent record we believe that at 7/1 or bigger Calligrapher is overpriced. The other thing worth considering is the form of the Jarvis stable as when it made its reappearance the stable were not enjoying a particularly good spell but there have been signs of late that they are hitting form again and this can only be a good thing for the chances today. Robinson also goes there for this ride before shooting off to Kempton to ride a couple later on.
White Shift is a filly that was highly tried as a 2 year old and after running creditably in some of the top filly races she flattened off and was struggling to cope with the handicap mark she achieved. So much so in fact that she contested a claiming race at Bath which she duly won with any amount in hand. Since then she has followed up in a Class 4 handicap at Newmarket before running 2nd last time out however she is now 7lbs above her last winning mark and its possible that the handicapper has caught up with her.
Wedding List represents the high flying William Haggas yard and anything he sends out has to merit respect. Wedding List is beautifully bred and has only had the 3 runs to date but on closer inspection of her form a mark of 84 hardly seems generous. After being well beaten in a maiden at Yarmouth she then finished 2nd at Great Leighs befiore winning her final start very cosily. She had the run of the race that day and nothing that finished behind has come out and franked the form. The form of her 2nd has not been advertised either and we think she will have had to improve significantly to take this.
Parisian Art comes from a big stable who are capable or readying one first time out but a debut maiden win has seen this one achieve a mark in the mid 90's and whilst the handicapper has given it some relief we think it may need to drop a little more before it wins races like this.
Spiritofthewest has won a soft ground maiden over 5f at Beverley and ran some fair races in defeat since, although it does need to prove that it gets 6F and has had enough chances to do so.
Diggeratt will probably prefer the faster ground today than on its seasonal reappearance but it needs to step up a bit on last years form as the races it was competing in were much weaker than todays. The jockey booking would not inspire confidence either but I suppose the price of 25/1 reflects this.
Desert Falls is one which could run better than its odds suggest. There is a line of form from earlier in the season that gives it the beating of White Shift and you can probably put a line through its last run at Chester when it was badly hampered and any chance went. The trainer has come into a bit of form in the last week or so and at prices of 16/1 and bigger this could run a decent race.
Overall we believe that Calligrapher is a better horse than it has shown on its latest starts and at the prices today merits a minmum stakes win bet.
There are some horses of interest later this evening and if we feel that they are worthy of a bet an email will be sent out later on.
Good Luck
1PT WIN - 3.40 HAYDOCK - CALLIGRAPHER (available at 8/1 with Blue Square, 15/2 Corals and 7/1 generally including BOG bookies)
Todays selection is overpriced in our opinion and there are good reasons to believe that this could run a big race today. It has only had 4 career starts, running down the field on debut before winning a 6F Pontefract maiden. It was then pitched into a conditions race at Lingfield where it was sent off at odds on but finished a well beaten 4th of 5. We believe that the horse was ill at ease around the tight turns of Lingfield and whilst its breeding suggests that it should have had no problem with the all weather surface it may be a case that this is better on the turf. This season it has had one run, a pipeopener in a very decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket where it ran well for a long way before fading and finishing 13th of 14. The winner of the Lingfield race and subsequent 5th in the Newmarket race, Global City, reopposes today and strictly on weights and measures this should beat our selection. This is currently trading at around 11/4 favourite and with a run under its belt and at a track where the trainer and jockey have an excellent record we believe that at 7/1 or bigger Calligrapher is overpriced. The other thing worth considering is the form of the Jarvis stable as when it made its reappearance the stable were not enjoying a particularly good spell but there have been signs of late that they are hitting form again and this can only be a good thing for the chances today. Robinson also goes there for this ride before shooting off to Kempton to ride a couple later on.
White Shift is a filly that was highly tried as a 2 year old and after running creditably in some of the top filly races she flattened off and was struggling to cope with the handicap mark she achieved. So much so in fact that she contested a claiming race at Bath which she duly won with any amount in hand. Since then she has followed up in a Class 4 handicap at Newmarket before running 2nd last time out however she is now 7lbs above her last winning mark and its possible that the handicapper has caught up with her.
Wedding List represents the high flying William Haggas yard and anything he sends out has to merit respect. Wedding List is beautifully bred and has only had the 3 runs to date but on closer inspection of her form a mark of 84 hardly seems generous. After being well beaten in a maiden at Yarmouth she then finished 2nd at Great Leighs befiore winning her final start very cosily. She had the run of the race that day and nothing that finished behind has come out and franked the form. The form of her 2nd has not been advertised either and we think she will have had to improve significantly to take this.
Parisian Art comes from a big stable who are capable or readying one first time out but a debut maiden win has seen this one achieve a mark in the mid 90's and whilst the handicapper has given it some relief we think it may need to drop a little more before it wins races like this.
Spiritofthewest has won a soft ground maiden over 5f at Beverley and ran some fair races in defeat since, although it does need to prove that it gets 6F and has had enough chances to do so.
Diggeratt will probably prefer the faster ground today than on its seasonal reappearance but it needs to step up a bit on last years form as the races it was competing in were much weaker than todays. The jockey booking would not inspire confidence either but I suppose the price of 25/1 reflects this.
Desert Falls is one which could run better than its odds suggest. There is a line of form from earlier in the season that gives it the beating of White Shift and you can probably put a line through its last run at Chester when it was badly hampered and any chance went. The trainer has come into a bit of form in the last week or so and at prices of 16/1 and bigger this could run a decent race.
Overall we believe that Calligrapher is a better horse than it has shown on its latest starts and at the prices today merits a minmum stakes win bet.
There are some horses of interest later this evening and if we feel that they are worthy of a bet an email will be sent out later on.
Good Luck
Tuesday 9 June 2009
Here's To You Mr Robinson
The closest we came to a bet this evening was Bertoliver in the 5 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 845pm. Phillip Robinson is back on board the horse tonight and we'd expect him to ping out and race prominently. If Bertoliver produces anything approaching the level of form he achieved under this jockey last May over c and d then he must go close. Unfortunately neither of us have found enough time today to complete the full race form study and analysis, therefore we are not putting this up as a bet. Assuming he doesn't make a mess of the start (and yes, that has happened to one or two of our supposedly well drawn fancies recently) we believe he'll trade shorter in running than the 5/1 he's available at as I write this and we may try and trade him for a few quid.
So no bet today, hopefully we'll have some time tonight to have a look at whatever is on offer tomorrow. Good luck if you get involved this evening.
So no bet today, hopefully we'll have some time tonight to have a look at whatever is on offer tomorrow. Good luck if you get involved this evening.
Apologies.....
Yesterday was another example of how difficult finding the time to do all the necessary study and analysis really is. I was away for a couple of days however I had agreed with Mick that if he was keen on anything that he should send it out as a proper bet via text to those concerned. I was not in a position to prepare and send out the email and due to unforeseen personal circumstances Mick was unable to post any details of the bet on here. To keep things fair on the blog the bet has been recorded on the P & L and those who only receive the bets via email or from the blog have saved themselves a point!!
Looking forward we are constantly trying to improve the way we do things and recognise that whilst it's a case of two steps forward and then two steps back, we are not doing too badly considering. There are a number of areas where we need to improve things, it is just a case of ensuring that time allows. One thing which we will be doing is increasing the number of 1PT win bets on horses which we feel are overpriced and whilst there may be a bit of speculation over some of them we believe with a combination of form analysis and statistical data these will prove profitable in the long run. We both have very busy day jobs and there are only so many hours in a day, and whilst it would be great to post up all our thoughts with in depth analysis quite frankly this is not really possible at the minute. As always we welcome any feedback and suggestions (please keep them clean) and hope that people are enjoying the blog as a whole. Please feel free to take up the option of texts/emails by clicking the link at the top right of the page.
As far as todays racing is concerned the afternoon cards looked difficult and I have concentrated my efforts on the evening card at Chester. As most people know this is a very tight track where a low draw is a big advantage, particularly over the sprint distances, and as usual there are a number of non runners (unsurprisingly the ones drawn widest of all). There is one race which looks potentially interesting and I want to spend a bit longer on it so if there is anything of interest it will be up here later on.
Looking forward we are constantly trying to improve the way we do things and recognise that whilst it's a case of two steps forward and then two steps back, we are not doing too badly considering. There are a number of areas where we need to improve things, it is just a case of ensuring that time allows. One thing which we will be doing is increasing the number of 1PT win bets on horses which we feel are overpriced and whilst there may be a bit of speculation over some of them we believe with a combination of form analysis and statistical data these will prove profitable in the long run. We both have very busy day jobs and there are only so many hours in a day, and whilst it would be great to post up all our thoughts with in depth analysis quite frankly this is not really possible at the minute. As always we welcome any feedback and suggestions (please keep them clean) and hope that people are enjoying the blog as a whole. Please feel free to take up the option of texts/emails by clicking the link at the top right of the page.
As far as todays racing is concerned the afternoon cards looked difficult and I have concentrated my efforts on the evening card at Chester. As most people know this is a very tight track where a low draw is a big advantage, particularly over the sprint distances, and as usual there are a number of non runners (unsurprisingly the ones drawn widest of all). There is one race which looks potentially interesting and I want to spend a bit longer on it so if there is anything of interest it will be up here later on.
Sunday 7 June 2009
A Sign Of Things To Come?
A hugely frustrating week for us with three bets on the blog failing to produce a winner. That only tells half of the story. If we'd put up our "mentions" as selections and backed them with just minimum stakes we'd have secured a very healthy profit this week.
On Monday we backed Brierty and we were happy with the way the horse ran. On this occasion the jolly proved to be in a different league to the rest of the field and we had to settle for second. We can live with that as we know that in the long term we'll take on and beat enough short priced favourites with the same sort of profile to make it more than a worthwhile venture.
On Tuesday we liked Fastnet Storm and both of us backed the horse at 6/1 the night before. Unfortunately on Tuesday the horse was only available during the morning and early afternoon trading at a best price of 4/1. Of course we could have put it up as a blog bet and not worried about the price, especially with one of the main contenders having been withdrawn from the race. However, we didn't think it would be fair to anyone following our bets for us to do that so we decided to explain what we'd done but refrain from including it as a selection on the blog. Of course that means another four points minimum missing from the p and l.
On Wednesday a couple of "mentions" ran poorly but we'll keep an eye on them for the future when they may of course be of interest given the right opposition and conditions.
Thursday was a busy day with two bets and once again it was a case of what might have been. The first of our bets was Habshan who simply wasn't good enough. We do not think the same can be said of Sir Isaac. We believe Sir Isaac will in time show this running to be false. We had hoped Sir Isaac would bounce out of the stalls and take a handy position from a favourable draw. Unfortunately Sir Isaac fell out of the stalls to be last of the field and any hopes of a win were lost.
On Friday Gags found one on the all weather but we didn't have time to to carry out the necessary study and analysis in order to decide if a proper bet was appropriate. In the end Gags traded the horse and I didn't get involved at all. The result, a winner as Cool Hand Jake was backed from 15/2 in to 7/2.
On Saturday we both agreed that Kings Destiny should be favourite and was the most likely winner of his race. Hindsight has shown us to have misjudged the form of his previous run but nonetheless he ran a sound race to finish second.
Just today I looked at one race on the all weather and from two mentions, Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, I found the winner and a fourth, the winner backed from an early 16/1 in to and eventual sp of 7/1.
Looking through all of the above it would be fair to say that our study and analysis is still spot on. If all of this week's mentions had found their way on to the blog we'd have seen another three winners and something like another 20 points added to the p and l even after accounting for the losers. Somehow our aim has to be to find the time required in order to complete our study and analysis so that we back these additional winners and of course make them available to everyone receiving our bets free via text and email.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
4 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6.00 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
101 BETS
17 WINNERS (16.83%)
36 PLACED (35.64%)
PROFIT / LOSS +50.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.07%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (ADVISED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
52 BETS
6 WINNERS (11.54%)
18 PLACED (34.62%)
PROFIT / LOSS +18.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 14.58%
As the headline suggests we would like to think that whilst this week has indeed fallen in to the category of what might have been we will be doing everything we can to ensure the overall picture, bets and mentions, are a sign of things to come. We could certainly do with a financial shot in the arm and I'm sure that comment applies to some of those following our bets in their own way. Lets hope this week sees a welcome upturn in fortunes for all concerned.
On Monday we backed Brierty and we were happy with the way the horse ran. On this occasion the jolly proved to be in a different league to the rest of the field and we had to settle for second. We can live with that as we know that in the long term we'll take on and beat enough short priced favourites with the same sort of profile to make it more than a worthwhile venture.
On Tuesday we liked Fastnet Storm and both of us backed the horse at 6/1 the night before. Unfortunately on Tuesday the horse was only available during the morning and early afternoon trading at a best price of 4/1. Of course we could have put it up as a blog bet and not worried about the price, especially with one of the main contenders having been withdrawn from the race. However, we didn't think it would be fair to anyone following our bets for us to do that so we decided to explain what we'd done but refrain from including it as a selection on the blog. Of course that means another four points minimum missing from the p and l.
On Wednesday a couple of "mentions" ran poorly but we'll keep an eye on them for the future when they may of course be of interest given the right opposition and conditions.
Thursday was a busy day with two bets and once again it was a case of what might have been. The first of our bets was Habshan who simply wasn't good enough. We do not think the same can be said of Sir Isaac. We believe Sir Isaac will in time show this running to be false. We had hoped Sir Isaac would bounce out of the stalls and take a handy position from a favourable draw. Unfortunately Sir Isaac fell out of the stalls to be last of the field and any hopes of a win were lost.
On Friday Gags found one on the all weather but we didn't have time to to carry out the necessary study and analysis in order to decide if a proper bet was appropriate. In the end Gags traded the horse and I didn't get involved at all. The result, a winner as Cool Hand Jake was backed from 15/2 in to 7/2.
On Saturday we both agreed that Kings Destiny should be favourite and was the most likely winner of his race. Hindsight has shown us to have misjudged the form of his previous run but nonetheless he ran a sound race to finish second.
Just today I looked at one race on the all weather and from two mentions, Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, I found the winner and a fourth, the winner backed from an early 16/1 in to and eventual sp of 7/1.
Looking through all of the above it would be fair to say that our study and analysis is still spot on. If all of this week's mentions had found their way on to the blog we'd have seen another three winners and something like another 20 points added to the p and l even after accounting for the losers. Somehow our aim has to be to find the time required in order to complete our study and analysis so that we back these additional winners and of course make them available to everyone receiving our bets free via text and email.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
4 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6.00 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
101 BETS
17 WINNERS (16.83%)
36 PLACED (35.64%)
PROFIT / LOSS +50.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.07%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (ADVISED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
52 BETS
6 WINNERS (11.54%)
18 PLACED (34.62%)
PROFIT / LOSS +18.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 14.58%
As the headline suggests we would like to think that whilst this week has indeed fallen in to the category of what might have been we will be doing everything we can to ensure the overall picture, bets and mentions, are a sign of things to come. We could certainly do with a financial shot in the arm and I'm sure that comment applies to some of those following our bets in their own way. Lets hope this week sees a welcome upturn in fortunes for all concerned.
After The Lord Mayor's
What a performance yesterday from Sea The Stars in The Derby. I can honestly say I never thought we'd again see a horse capable of winning top races over a mile and then a mile and a half, especially not in the space of just a few weeks. The combination of attributes required is immense and in my opinion we cannot overstate just how good Sea The Stars is.
As far as we are concerned, our selection yesterday ran a decent enough race before being hampered and finally finishing second. The interference made no difference whatsoever to the result and we obviously underestimated the winner who had previously beaten our selection at Chester. Whilst we were of the view that the Chester winner had enjoyed the run of the race and would struggle to confirm the form at the revised weights, hindsight has proved that we were wrong. As is often the case we were right and wrong at the same time. The morning favourite was one to take on and we got that beat, ironically a stable-mate of the eventual winner. We felt KINGS DESTINY should have been priced as favourite and eventually the market agreed with us. We still seem to be taking a few steps forward and then unfortunately a few in the opposite direction. Earlier on in the week we backed Habshan and he quite simply wasn't good enough. On the same evening card at Sandown we sided with Sir Isaac and we both remain convinced he will in time prove to be the best horse in that race. Despite falling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running he finished not that far off the front. We are sure he'd have been right in the mix if he'd have started better and been in a position to take advantage of the draw. Then of course on Tuesday we were with Fastnet Storm but we felt we couldn't put him up on here at 4/1 when we'd backed him at 6's. That's racing and of course the blog will show three losing bets this week. Under different circumstances and with a little more luck in running we could have been showing two wins and a healthy profit. As always we'll take it on the chin and move on as we know things will even themselves out over the course of the year. I'm busy this afternoon but I will post up the summaries later this evening.
As far as todays racing goes, I spent a fair bit of time on the 440pm at Southwell. Two which you may find worthy of a second glance at half decent prices are Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, both trading at around double figure odds.
Good luck if you get involved.
As far as we are concerned, our selection yesterday ran a decent enough race before being hampered and finally finishing second. The interference made no difference whatsoever to the result and we obviously underestimated the winner who had previously beaten our selection at Chester. Whilst we were of the view that the Chester winner had enjoyed the run of the race and would struggle to confirm the form at the revised weights, hindsight has proved that we were wrong. As is often the case we were right and wrong at the same time. The morning favourite was one to take on and we got that beat, ironically a stable-mate of the eventual winner. We felt KINGS DESTINY should have been priced as favourite and eventually the market agreed with us. We still seem to be taking a few steps forward and then unfortunately a few in the opposite direction. Earlier on in the week we backed Habshan and he quite simply wasn't good enough. On the same evening card at Sandown we sided with Sir Isaac and we both remain convinced he will in time prove to be the best horse in that race. Despite falling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running he finished not that far off the front. We are sure he'd have been right in the mix if he'd have started better and been in a position to take advantage of the draw. Then of course on Tuesday we were with Fastnet Storm but we felt we couldn't put him up on here at 4/1 when we'd backed him at 6's. That's racing and of course the blog will show three losing bets this week. Under different circumstances and with a little more luck in running we could have been showing two wins and a healthy profit. As always we'll take it on the chin and move on as we know things will even themselves out over the course of the year. I'm busy this afternoon but I will post up the summaries later this evening.
As far as todays racing goes, I spent a fair bit of time on the 440pm at Southwell. Two which you may find worthy of a second glance at half decent prices are Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, both trading at around double figure odds.
Good luck if you get involved.
Saturday 6 June 2009
Derby Day!
Today is the highlight for many flat lovers as the premier race the Derby takes centre stage. We feel that this is a very open race this year and have nothing strong enough for the account although we both think that Black Bear Island could be the one that is overpriced. We have however had a bet in the 2.50 Musselburgh:
2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)
We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.
Good luck if you play.
There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.
2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)
We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.
Good luck if you play.
There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.
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