How I Do What I Do, Form Study, Finding Value...

It's interesting seeing how different people work through a race, often coming to the same conclusion. I used to try and employ a similar approach for all of my form study, flat, aw and nh, but the first thing to point out is I like to be a little bit selective, so I concentrated on races over 1 mile and more on the flat and 3 miles and more for nh. More recently I have stopped trying to find selections on nh racing as I simply didn't make it pay on my own. I now leave that to the experts (tipsters) and a guy I've become friends with (morning Gags) as a result of our similar approach to betting. Yesterday his only selection was an each way bet on United at Cheltenham. Now I know it didn't win, but I'm sure we'd all love to strike that kind of bet all day, every day if we could. Having spent hours discussing racing and betting with him, I now have total trust in his approach and selections, so if he puts one up I back it, simple as that.

Now, back to how I go about finding my selections on the all weather. Once I've identified a suitable race, usually over a mile or more, I'll have a general look through the form of each runner to see if I can dismiss any of them outright. It then becomes a process of elimintaion using various factors until I'm left with the ones I think have a serious chance. So far I'll probably not have any idea of prices available, which I think is a good thing. Once I have my contenders I will price them up according to how I think the race will be run. As an example I liked Very Well Red yesterday and I made that a 3/1 shot. This is the bit many punters struggle with, yes I made it my most likely winner but I still made it something like a 3/1 shot to win the race, therefore I couldn't back it unless I got at least 4/1. That gives me at least a 25% edge and that's where the profit comes from over the course of the year. Trying to explain this to most punters doesn't work, but I know that if I back my horses with a 25% edge I will win over the long term. Short term of course it means I'll miss winners as I won't back a horse unless I can get 25% above what I think is the the right price, but I've learned to live with that. Super Frank was one example. I made it a 5/1 shot the other day and that was the price, so we let it go. Backing it at that price would have meant no edge, no 25%, and over the long term that would mean no profit.

Getting back to form study, I have to say I find the aw a lot easier than nh, hence my decision to concentrate on the sand stuff. That's easy for me to explain, it's to do with my own analysis of the times achieved by horses over c and d, I suppose you could call this my speed ratings. I will look at the contenders and make a note of all their form, with particular attention paid to c and d form in this class of race (or better of course). I will look at how each performed, bearing in mind their respective ratings, the weight they carried, the draw, the way the race was run etc, before coming up with my conclusions.

If I fancy 3 horses in one race and I'm sweeter on one of them than the others, then I'll make that a 3/1 shot (a point for each rival and one for the field). Of course I'll then need 4/1 to be betting with my 25% edge, but that pretty much sums up how I do things and I'm pleased to say it works and makes me money. Where I think there are more serious contenders I will leave the race alone as being too tough, unless of course I get a silly price for my fancy. This happens more often than many would think, (Transvestite, Formation, Bookiebasherbabe, Whodunit, Hibre Court etc), but of course I back more losers than winners, I just back the winners at over the odds I think they should be.

I originally posted something similar to the above on a private forum when one or two of the guys asked me how I go about things. I have changed my approach slightly since then, in as much as I now stick to the all weather myself and leave the nh to others as I've said before.

Hopefully some of you will find this useful and for others, well at least you'll see where I'm coming from as and when I post selections in future.

Finally, a piece of advice for anyone. Wherever possible place your bets with bookies offering best odds guaranteed. Yesterday we were paid out at 7/1 rather than 4/1 as our selection amazingly drifted like the proverbial barge. You only need that to happen a few times and it can make a huge difference to your bank balance!