A Day For The Ladies?

Well I have decided to play in 2 races today and they both look to have good shapes to them. The selections are:

3.15 KELSO - I'M DELILAH 1PT EW (3/1 with Bet365,Sportingbet,Skybet)
3.15 KELSO - OVERBRANCH 0.5PT EW (12/1 with Bet365,BlueSquare,Skybet)

5.10 NEWTON ABBOT - SHENANIGAN 1PT EW (4/1 generally available)

The reasons behind the bets quite simply is that I believe both races offer excellent terms for the punter. If we start with the 3.15 race, there is a short priced favourite in the race which has won it's last two races very easily but as a result is now running off a 22lb higher mark. Whether it can cope with the rise remains to be seen but I am always happy to take these types on if I can find something suitable. I'm Delilah appears to be improving for the switch to Ferdy Murphy and has got some decent form in the book on fast ground. She won a fairly uncompetitive Mares race last time but she was value for more than the winning distance and on some of her past form has got to have a chance off what I consider to be a decent handicap mark. I think Starr Flyer has been overrated by its 2nd at Stratford two starts back (those at the front set a suicidal pace and the winner and SF both came from way off the pace) and it then fell last time out. Prosecco has done all its running on softer surfaces and has to be taken on under todays faster conditions, which brings me to my other bet in the race, Overbranch. This horse had some excellent novice hurdle form last season, over various trips and under all ground conditions, and after starting the season over fences (didn't appear to take to them) it has now returned to hurdles. It was 10 lengths behind I'm Delilah two starts back but has got a 5lb pull today, and if we consider that it will have improved for the run (ran promisingly again last time out) then it looks overpriced to me and I'm happy to have a small wager on it.

My other bet is a fairly solid one IMO and involves backing the horse with the form in the book rather than backing potential improvers. This is a policy I like to adopt as the general perception is to go with the improvers and they are continually overbacked. Shenanigan has put up some decent performances in a relatively short career to date, and if you ignore its runs in much better races behind the likes of Diamond Harry and Quevega, then the form reads well in the context of this race. There only appears to be 4 or 5 in with a chance in the race and it has the highest official rating of these. I respect that the Irish raider will almost certainly improve for the better ground but on what its shown to date I can't back it at 13/8, the Alan King trained horse is another who will be better on the faster ground but the form it has shown is nothing special and in my book has a bit to find with the selection. Same applies to Caoba really and all in all I just thought that Shenanigan offered a value bet at the prices. She does have a tendency to come off the bridle mid race but the trip looks well within her compass range and the stable had a good winner on Friday. There is a slight doubt about the faster ground but it has got form on similar and I'm happy to take a chance. Lets hope we get a run for our money!