Once again we have two bets in a day following on from a period of inactivity on the aw account.
I started off looking at the 750, where the jolly looked likely to go off at a fairly short price. Last time this horse ran I very nearly backed the third that day, each way at double figure odds. In the end I decided the jolly was the most likely winner so I left the race alone. My thinking in looking at this race today was that the horse may well have won its last three but it has obvioulsy gone up in the weights and there may be some value in opposing it. The problem with trying to oppose one horse is that you need to come up with a viable alternative and I couldn't. I then checked out the betting on the race to see if by some fluke I could get a reasonable price on the fav, only to find it has been withdrawn. So in my opinion you've now got a desperate race where one of them will somehow fall across the line. That might be a bit harsh but for me a race to swerve.
The next on the card is where I've had my first bet. On the clock the jolly must have a chance, but Jake The Snake's last three runs, the reason he's favourite tonight, have been in four and five runner claimers. A little bit different tonight as 11 are set to go to post and one or two have run well in much better races than this. My selection has clocked good times over course and distance on a number of occasions, is back down to a winning mark and has gone well fresh, with an overall course record of 2 wins and 5 places from 11 starts. The last time my selection ran off tonights mark of 70, over c and d, after a few months off, it managed to finish second, only just beaten and has run some good races off higher marks since then. I'll be amazed if my selection isn't at least in the shake up if running to that sort of form tonight. I make this around a 6/1 shot so the fact that it can be backed at 10/1 means I have to bet
820 Kempton CROSS THE LINE 1 point each way at 10/1 (Stan James BOG and SkyBet)
My second bet runs in the next race on the card. With a couple of non-runners the race is now down to just five, but I don't see this inconveniencing my selection. Looking at what each of the runners has actually achieved, I don't understand why my selection isn't favourite. Whilst some may say the fact that my selection hasn't run for 288 days is a problem, I don't think so. The horse has gone well fresh in the past, notably when making all to win a Class 3 Handicap over course and distance last year, with one of todays rivals behind (and now worse off at the weights). Tonights favourite hasn't run for 166 days itself and in my opinion hasn't produced the same level of form either. I expected my selection to be priced up somewhere around 2/1 or possibly 5/2. The Racing Post forecast of 10/1 is laughable as far as I am concerned, although I accept they had to price up 7 runners. As always a bet is dictated by my analysis suggesting the selection is the most likely winner and there being a value price available.
850 Kempton VIVA VETTORI 2 points win at 7/2 (Bet 365 BOG)
It may not have escaped some of you reading this that I've gone for two selections ridden by Richard Hughes. In fact I think these are his only rides for the night. Maybe this is a good sign, who knows?
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3 comments:
Hi Mick,
Good to see a couple of selections tonight – though I’m starting to feel that waiting for one of your tips is a bit like waiting for a bus ;)
I had a quick look at them both and would be most concerned by the fact that neither has run for quite some time (I know you’ve mentioned this, but it is still a worry, as only the stable will really know whether they are ready). I was initially struggling with the first one – but I can see where you are coming from. However, IMO the market will tell the story – if it’s fit, the money will come and it will stand a good chance; If it’s not…
The second one looks like a good pick (though the odds are a little prohibitive). I particularly like the fact that it is quite likely to get an uncontested lead – and with Richard Hughes on top, that could be sufficient – even if it is not fully tuned. It would certainly strike me as a cast iron back to lay IR – I’ll be very surprised if it doesn’t trade around even money IR…
GL with them both – I hope the wait proves worthwhile !!
A.
Hi A,
As you will have gathered I am happy to back horses coming back from a break if I can see a positive angle. In both cases tonight I could. I'm not really worried about the market too much, my view is that if I like something then the chances are someone else will, but I've won tons of money backing drifters and if anything it gives me greater pleasure as it suggests I was unique in spotting the opportunity!!
Hope you enjoyed trading the pair of them.
Mick
Well they both ran great races Mick – as the market suggested they would… There can be little doubt that Viva Vettori in particular, was the best horse in the race: he was just too fresh and consequently didn’t settle – that’s the other danger of backing horses without a recent run… I didn’t back or trade either mate – I don’t feel comfortable operating at such short prices. That’s not to say people shouldn’t – it just doesn’t suit my style.
I’ll look forwarded to seeing if you manage to find anything for tomorrow.
A.
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