I have been asked to provide a weekly and year to date summary to show how things are progressing throughout the year. I have no problem with that, not least of all because things are going so well right now. I don't know how enthusiastic I'd be if I was doing my brains in, but there you go.
Just a quick look back at today before I post up the summaries. I think the analysis was spot on again wasn't it? Nothing on the account but I suggested two possible horses to trade. The first was backed from 28/1 in to 12/1 before the race even started, so a gift of a free bet if ever I've seen one. The horse ran well enough and rewarded each way supporters by finishing second, although the winner was on another planet today and dotted up. My second suggested trade went one better and won at an sp of 8/1, with 10/1 having been available earlier in the day. I thought this was over priced but for me to put something on the account nowadays I like at least two pieces of form to be able to confirm my thoughts. Anyway, for those amongst you who like to trade, hopefully it was another good day courtesy of the aw king!
Lots of aw action coming up, my only problem will be trying to post everything on here pre-race. If I can I will, but if I can't then so be it. The guys I share my analysis with can verify what I say if needs be.
Weekly Summary
4 Bets
1 Winner (25%)
2 Placed (50%)
Profit 14.6 points
Year To Date Summary
44 Bets
12 Winners (27%)
12 Placed (27%)
Profit 45.52 points
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7 comments:
Looks like you could have had another good day today Mick (unfortunately, I was out myself, so I had no opportunity to profit from your suggestions :( ).
I know you like your selective betting policy – but it does beg the question as to why you don’t just adopt a broader staking strategy and simply place smaller bets when you feel less confident (ie. when there are less form lines to back your judgement). The only way you wouldn’t profit with such a method would be if you were currently just going through a ‘lucky’ phase – but I don’t believe this is the case. I acknowledge that the strike rate wouldn’t be as good – but your bottom line would increase and surely that is the object of the exercise…
A.
Hi Andrew,
I already have a broad band (upto 10 points) for staking mate. Over the year I reckon my average stake per bet will be somewhere around 4 points. I have to have rules which I stick to for my proper bets, account selections if you like, otherwise I could end up getting involved in all sorts. I keep a (relatively) small amount of money in an exchange account and I use this to trade horses I like but which are not strong enough for account bets. The other day Ergo fitted the bill, yesterday Fremen and Nashmiah, today the two I mentioned on my post. So am I going through a "lucky" phase? Yes I probably am with regards to the ones I'm trading, but I don't think I am with regards to my account bets and it's the account bets which will determine whether or not I am successful in my venture. I know I could have more bets and that would lead to more winners but it would also lead to longer losing runs eventually if not straight away. If I were going to change anything in the years ahead it would probably be to have even fewer bets, but to increase the staking. As we've said before, different strokes for different folks.
Cheers
Mick
Hi Mick,
Well done with the impressive strike rate on your selection strategy on the AW. What is the single most important criteria you consider when making your selections? Have you considered transferring your strategy to the upcoming Turf flat season?
Keep up the Good work, and I may as well finish by asking what you make of Loyal Royals chances on Wednesday at Lingfield? It will go well I think
Cheers,
Nick
Hi Nick,
If I had to give advice in terms of the approach to betting it would be "Stick to what you're good at. If you don't already specialise then think about doing so. Become an expert at one thing." If you mean with regards to the actual selections themselves then I would of course say "Value is the most important single factor." However, talk to different people and you'll get very different answers to the question "What constitutes value?"
I have people who will look after the day to day stuff on the turf flat racing. I will come up with the odd selection, usually in quality races over a mile or more at the decent meetings.
As for your horse on Wednesday, I can't help yet as I won't look at that until Tuesday evening at the earliest. Even then, it would need to be in the right kind of race for me to get involved.
Thanks for your comments, good luck, cheers
Mick
Hi Mick,
To my mind the definition of Value is being able to selectively and regularily pre-empt the Market and beat the SP. Having said that it's not always the case that a drifter has no value but unlikely in my experience.
Thanks for the comment and advice
Nick
BTW, I just sent you an email.
Nick
Hi again Nick,
As I said, different people have different ideas on this subject - lol.
I don't even look at the market until I've identified my most likely winner in any race. I work out what price I think my selection should be according to my analysis and if it's available at odds at least 25% greater than my idea of the right price, then that's what I call value. Some of my biggest wins have been on drifters, I was right and the market wrong, which is why I use best odds guaranteed bookies whenever possible.
Cheers
Mick
Cheers
Mick
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