Monday 23 March 2009
Monday At Wolverhampton
I looked through three of the races on todays card but nothing has tempted me in to having any kind of wager. A quiet start to the week then with no account business. Not only is there nothing strong enough to go up as a selection today, I can't even point you in the direction of a couple to trade. It really is pretty poor stuff. As usual there are a couple of familiar names amongst the runners. I'm sure some of you will have noticed Nawamees, (I backed him three runs ago when he finished 4th, before he went on to win his next two), who runs in the Claimer over 12 furlongs. Later on in the Handicap over 9.5 furlongs Julie Camacho runs Tae Kwon Do. I'm sure most of you will recognise the colours of the owners and it wouldn't surprise me if they have a go today, but for me it all looks far too trappy so I'm more than happy to sit it out and bide my time.
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6 comments:
Like the blog, just noticed you after reading JP's.
Regards,
Jason
Hi Mick,
I like the fact that you specialise with the aw and reaping the rewards. I agree it is important to be an expert in a given field rather than the 'jack of all trades' approach. In my opinion, there is so much racing these days that it is simply impossible to do anything else. I have specialised in two-year-old racing for many years and it can be difficult to keep track of one aspect of racing let alone all. However, if people can work it, and they are happy with their lot then who am I to discourage them. Gambling is very subjective and I'm not into politics...lol.
I have a few bets on the aw. I am very selective in general but I find the aw a decent betting medium as many races are pretty low class and if you have a fair sort they usually run a race.
I will be following your blog as I like your selective approach.
Keep up the good work.
Regards,
Jason
Hi Jason
I'm glad you like the blog and the approach. I agree with you about specialising but many others don't. Good luck to them, that's all I can say.
I assume you side with two year olds with form over newcomers or do you have access to information? It's an area I hardly ever look at.
Good luck
Mick
Hi Mick,
I generally bet on form horses as most juveniles struggle to win on debut, especially against experiennced opposition. I find that most horses for the larger, fashionable stables are often under priced on debut and if I do back a horse it is usually with smaller trainers who are often overlooked. I have a number of ways of finding out the best two-year-olds, group entries, Steve Taplin's publication and our own trainer profiles which we do unique analysis, and that helps although I rarely bet on debut unless I achieve a speculative price.
I have been specialising with two-year-olds for such a long time that I am in tune with most of the trainers and know what they are likely to attain. You always get a few surprises and I love to see a less fashionable trainer find a decent juvenile.
What kind of racing/bets do you favour on the aw?
Regards,
Jason
Generally I prefer races over a mile or more, simply because I find the form stands up more often than not. I also prefer races with 8 runners and more, obviously for the each way terms. I like to oppose what I consider to be false favourites whenever I can. As I've said on the blog, if you can take a 2/1 shot out of the race it gives you a massive edge.
I like the point you make about smaller trainers against the big names. It sounds like you use a similar approach, ie specialising in an area and looking for value.
All the best
Hi Mick,
It is surprising how each trainer has their strengths and weaknesses often following routines. As they say, people are creatures of habit. It is surprising how some larger stables are much worse than they appear whereas some smaller stables are much better. You often have to scrape the surface a little to see but that's the fun of research and hopefully gaining an edge. I think every trainer has something interesting to offer at times.
I will keep an eye on your blog.
Good luck.
Regards,
Jason
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