Friday, 18 September 2009

I'm Still Alive!!!


There is a non runner in the race now which reduces the field to seven however I have had a 2PT EW bet at 6/1 with Stan James and William Hill. Normally I would only back win only in a seven runner race but if this runs anywhere near to form then the only danger is the favourite and 1/4 the odds 1-2 still makes a bit of appeal. Good luck if you follow me in!!

Well the last few weeks certainly haven't gone to plan and a combination of things good and bad have meant that there has been no time for blogging unfortunately!!

A few weeks back I was really keen on one and after spending about 90 mins going through the race and writing an in depth analysis, I had a strong account selection ready to go. When I went to bed there was only one firm priced up and they were showing 11/2 which I was more than happy to back it at. Well things went downhill from there....I logged on at 8.00 am and they were now showing 4/1 on the horse and by 9.30 this was the price across the boards. I adjusted my staking slightly due to the reduced value but then decided that I would just pass on the bet completely. Wind the clock forward several hours and hey presto it wins by 6 lengths at 3/1!!! To say I was pissed off would be an understatement!!! To put so much time into writing everything up only to receive a hefty whack to the chuds is extremely frustrating to the say the least and it was several days before I could even bring myself to even think about this blog!! Anyway I have been doing reasonably well from my betting over the last few weeks and its time to start posting on a regular basis again.

Due to some added time constraints and a new server at work, I will no longer be able to access the site during normal weekdays. What I intend to do from now on is whenever I find anything which looks of interest I will post it up the night before. In most cases I am not going to have any prices to work with but I will put the price I consider to be value and go from there. I am going to reduce the amount of analysis but I cannot see any other way of fitting it all in unless this happens.

I have had a decent look at tomorrows cards and I will be getting involved with one horse at the moment assuming the price is available tomorrow. The horse is an old favourite of mine and tomorrow sees it running under optimal conditions in a race which doesn't look overly competitive. The race in question is the 2.25 Newmarket and the selection will be Storyland provided that I can achieve 4/1 or better. The RP forecast is 6/1 but it is currently a little shorter on BF and I'm not holding my breath about getting 6's on this one tomorrow!

There are a few good reasons why I think this warrants backing tomorrow. Firstly it is a horse which needs a long straight to bring the best out in her and the trainer has managed to run her in races at courses which don't reaaly suit her style so far this season. She has also been the victim of at least two poor rides from Miss Milczarek this season and I'm hoping that in an 8 runner race on one of the widest tracks in the country, that she manages to find a way through tomorrow!! The horse won the race last year (admittedly off a 12lb lower mark) but she then followed up with a convincing win off a mark just 3lb lower than tomorrows. Fast ground is ideal, this is her time of year, and she is back running against her own sex in a much easier race than the ones she has been competing in all season. The other key factor is the lack of quality opposition. The fav is priced up on connections and whilst she could still prove to be well handicapped she was hardly impressive when winning a Class 4 handicap on the AW last time and I would be keen to take her on at around 6/4. Most of the others are stepping up in class and/or have doubts about the trip and ground and it really does look an obvious selection to me. Not exactly sure how I'm going to stake the bet as there are only the dead eight declared but more than likely will be going win only.

If I get chance in the morning I will update with the prices and my intended staking.

One or two people have asked me about the whereabouts of Mick. Unfortunately he is not going to be involved in the blog from now on and that means that there will be no further texts or phone messages going out, however he is still following the racing and hopefully he may return if his circumstances change at all. As most people know this was his blog originally and I'd like to thank him for all his help and efforts over the last six months as I appreciate how time consuming it can be.

I hope I haven't rambled on too much and hopefully the new style approach will generate a bit of interest amongst you racing enthusiasts!!!

Bye for now!

Saturday, 22 August 2009

Saturday Night Bath Time!

Good morning,

It's nice to be back refreshed and well after a little family break and whilst I haven't had much opportunity to see any racing I have been keeping an eye on the results and checking out the form.

Today there is one bet for me:

6.15 BATH - DINGAAN - 2PTS WIN (available at 4/1 with Bet365 & Skybet, 7/2 generally)

The racing today looks pretty tough again and I wasn't interested in any of the bigger meetings at Sandown or Chester, I am keen on the selection at Bath this evening and whilst it is carrying a 4lb penalty for winning over C & D last month there is every chance that this will be able to shrug this off now that it has rediscovered the secret of getting its head in front!!

The horse has been rated much higher in the past and indeed has won off a mark as high as 88 (admittedly two years ago) but it has been running very creditably this season and some of the pieces of form have been franked and look very strong in the context of this race. The horse has been campaigned largely over 6 and 7F but its last two starts over the mile trip have seen it run two very encouraging races. Two starts ago it finished 2nd to a very progressive horse of Sir Michael Stoute's that has since won again and was then sent off a very short favourite in a much better race at Haydock off a 14lb higher mark. Three further winners have come from the horses that finished behind Dingaan that day and the form looks rock solid. Last time out on its first visit to Bath, Dingaan won a shade cosily after not getting the clearest of runs and again the form has been franked with the second winning since and the 4th winning twice. A 4lb rise doesn't look enough to prevent this from running a big race again today and I'm very keen on its chances. On the downside the horse has looked a little bit of a dodgepot in the past but it certainly hasn't shirked the issue the last twice and David Probert is 1 win and 1 second from his two rides on the horse. The stable is firing in the winners at the moment (10 wins from 45 in the last two seasons at the course) and they may just have found the key to this horse once again!!

The opposition looks largely uninspiring and there are a couple of 3yos in the line up who should help us to get a decent price. The likely favourite is Roger Charlton's Cheam Forever who has won its last two starts however it now races off a 10lb higher mark than its first success and is up in grade. The other market principal is Carbon Hoofprint trained by Peter Makin and this one tries to follow up its latest C & D success off a 5lb higher mark. Once again the horse steps up in class and the win came on much softer ground so it remains to be seen whether it will be as effective today. The horse had been getting beaten in lower class races off lower marks and creeping up the handicap as a consequence and whilst improvement from these two 3yos is likely they are going to have to post career bests to finish in front of Dingaan.

Champain Sands will possibly improve on its latest performances back on firm ground where it has posted two of its previous wins and it doesn't look too badly handicapped on past form.

Desert Dreamer finished in front of Dingaan in June at Chester but is 6lb worse off at the weights for 3 lengths and it looks an out and out 7F horse to me, indeed it has only placed once from 8 attempts at a mile or more!

Don Pietro has been running over 10F in claimers and sellers and whilst it is on a winning mark it hasn't won in 11 attempts in a class 4 and I'm not sure that today will be the day.

I Confess ran well at Chester yesterday but looks as though its optimal trip is 7F and it has yet to win after 24 attempts on turf so this cannot be fancied today.

Thunder Gorge will have to defy a career high mark and whilst the trip and ground should be fine this one looks like it needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before it returns to the winners enclosure.

La Rosa Nostra returns to 8F for the first time since its maiden win and it could bring about a little improvement.however it has yet to win in this class of race and I'm happy to overlook it today.

Top Seed looks to be way out of form and is trying a trip much shorter than ideal and can quickly be dismissed.

A race where there are doubts about many of the horses and I will be disappointed if Dingaan doesn't go close this evening.

Nothing else which I feel is worthy of a mention so I'll leave it there and hope to start back with a decent winner!!

Good luck!

EDIT - Apologies but there will be no texts or telephone messages for the next 2 weeks as Mick has had to go abroad with work and he cannot access the phone as normal.

Friday, 21 August 2009

Decided Against It!!!!

I am quite keen on one running tonight at Salisbury but I've decided to leave it alone and its a no bet day on my return.

The horse I liked was Solar Graphite in the 7.30 race and I'm convinced that this one is still a well handicapped horse and well capable of winning from this mark. I saw its last two runs and things haven't really panned out for it, at Newmarket it got to the front and idled off a slow pace and was run out of it by a decent Mark Johnston horse and then last time it was well supported at Sandown but nothing went right for it. There was no gallop at all and the winner pinched the race from the front but Solar Graphite had no luck in running and ran on well when the race was over. My main concern for not playing tonight is the possibility of a lack of pace again and whilst the trainer continues to have his runners in decent form (another 3 winners at York today) at odds of about 7/2 I don't think it is worth chancing.

I hope to be back tomorrow with any possible bets for Saturday.

Back From My Break!!

Good morning and it's nice to be back refreshed and raring to go again after my holiday. I have been keeping a close eye on the results over the last couple of weeks and it was quite fitting that my old friend Sir Isaac finally came good as this has been put up on here on more occasions than any other horse (3 times) and was clearly well handicapped but just needed to have everything fall right for it. Unfortunately for us it didn't condescend to do this when I had put it up but it did bring a wry smile to my face when I saw it had won!!

I have had a good look at todays cards and there are several races which could be of interest. The York Ebor meeting has been going on all week and I have to admit that finding the winners at these meetings is usually a very difficult pastime and looking at the results this week it has been no exception to the rule!!! I will more than likely be concentrating my efforts away from York and I like the look of one at Salisbury this evening although I need to check a few more things out befoe wading in.

I'll be back on here later if there is anything doing and as usual any bets will be posted pre race.


Saturday, 8 August 2009

A Few I Liked But.......

unfortunately I couldn't find anything that I was comfortable putting up as an account selection.

Saturdays are a notoriously tricky day as there is so much racing going on and it always seems to be very competitive stuff. I will mention the horses I thought could go well but all in all the races were either too tough or the prices were too short.

2.10 Haydock - Angel Rock (7/1) and Lowther (8/1)
5.30 Haydock - Final Victory (5/2)
4.05 Ascot - Proclaim (11/2)
5.10 Newmarket - Flapper (9/2)
4.20 Redcar - Wovoka (15/8) NAP

I will be back in about ten days time and in the meantime all the best and be lucky!!

Friday, 7 August 2009

Another Tough Day....

Todays racing has the same look and feel to it as yesterdays and with the inconsistent weather causing ground changes all over the place it is a quiet day again and I have nothing strong enough for the account.

Musselburgh looks the pick of the action and I could see Strensall going well in the 8.10 race however the shape of the race is not particularly good and there is a short priced favourite which probably should win.

I will be back on here tomorrow before taking a 10 day break for my annual holiday so lets hope we can sign off in style with a decent selection tomorrow!!!

Thursday, 6 August 2009

Nothing To Get Excited About!!

I have to say that todays racing was pretty uninspiring stuff and it was a very easy decision to conclude that there was not account bet. The only meeting of any interest was Haydock and I'm a little unsure of how the ground will be riding given the RP forecast of Good/Firm for the 6F races but Soft for all the others!

The races I liked were the longer races anyway and I based my analysis on the forecast soft ground. The ones which I liked all be it not strongly enough for the account were Mull Of Killough in the 3.40 and Hucking Heat in the 4.40 and thought that both of these could go well. Mull of Killough looks to be progressing nicely and on a strict interpretation of his 3/4 length defeat behind Firebet looks to be well in here off a mark of 89. Firebet has gone on to win a decent handicap at Newmarket which has produced other winners and last time was runner up in a Group 3 contest and is now rated 108. The ground would be a slight unknown but with a dry day forecast I think it may not be as bad as they think and this could go close. 5/2 is the top price (it was 3's when I was looking last night) and there is not a great deal to get excited about there.

Hucking Heat has won over the course and caught my eye when meeting with plenty of interference on its latest start in a Ladies riders handicap at Beverley. It has won over this course before and has won off higher marks on the AW and will act on soft ground. Many of its rivals today are either out of form, don't appear to like soft ground or are high enough in the handicap but it looks a trappy race overall and at single figure prices I'm not really interested in getting involved.

I'll be back tomorrow and hopefully there will be more of interest!!

Tuesday, 4 August 2009

Nothing For Wednesday

Well the rain certainly came down today but unfortuntely so much so that it caused both flat meetings to have to abandon races and therefore the selection never got a chance to prove its worth!!!

There will be nothing from me during Wednesday day as I'm away with work and won't be able to post anything however there is an interesting looking card at Kempton in the evening and one or two look worthy of a closer look.

If there is anything doing I'll post back on here tomorrow evening.

Singing In The Rain?

There is one bet for me today:

4.10 Chepstow - Dancing Storm 2pt win (available at 7/2 Sky, 100/30 with Lads, Hills, Coral & Bet365)

When I initially looked at this race I was put off by the shape of the race as there are only 7 runners. After spending a little while going through the runners I decided that one of them looked as though it had everything in its favour and that could not be said of many of the other runners.

The selection is Dancing Storm and this looks to have an excellent chance today under optimal conditions. The horse is currently rated 56 after starting the season on a mark of 61 and is back down to a winning rating having won previously over C & D off 56 and 58. More significant is the fact that it has not run on soft ground this year and this is something that it clearly needs to give of its best. Todays ground is likely to be good/soft at least and this should suit this son of Trans Island down to the ground (no pun intended). Last time out it ran a very encouraging race at Salisbury where the ground was riding fast, making all the running and having everything off the bridle with a couple of furlongs to go. It eventually got collared and ended up fourth but it has dropped a further pound in the ratings and that run showed that it was returning to a bit of form. The other positives are the return to the saddle of Fergus Sweeney who has partnered it in both its course and distance wins, the trainer has an excellent record at this track (nearly 20% in the last 5 years) and the trainer jockey combo at Chepstow is even better (27%). The trainer has hit a little bit of form in the last month or so and with conditions in its favour today I think it will run a big race.

The market leader is the John Dunlop trained Manere Bay and whilst it is unexposed and has ran some creditable races I would prefer to look elsewhere. The trainer has gone 27 runners without a winner which is a concern and the sire has not had a winner at this distance as yet (0-11).

Next in is Respite which is trained by a personal favourite of mine William Haggas. As ever this yard has to be respected but you need to take a leap of faith to back this one today at 7/2 after it's last run where it was never travelling and ended up beaten 16 lengths. Yes you can always forgive a horse a poor run but it has only got a Kempton maiden win to its name thus far and is priced on expectation rather than what it has shown on the course. One to oppose today I reckon.

Inis Bottom doesn't look particularly well handicapped and disappointed on its only start on a soft surface and the trainer has an appalling record at the course with only 1 win from 58 attempts. Enough to put me off today!

Oriental Girl is quite interesting and is handicapped to win again. It has won over C & D before, admittedly on faster going, but has got some winning form on a softer surface off a 4lb higher mark than todays. Last time out it ran in the same race as the selection and travelled well on the wide outside before meeting with a little interference a furlong or so out. It was allowed to come home in its own time after that and is slightly better off with the selection today. Having said that the sire is only 1-34 at the course and the jockey booking doesn't look too significant (1-29 in last five years for this trainer). It could be the one to give the selection most to do but I much prefer the chances of Dancing Storm under todays conditions.

Nesayem is from a trainer who is in a bit of form but he has not trained a winner at the course as yet (0-9). The horse has only run in six maidens so far and whilst she has shown glimpses of ability I think a step up in trip would probably suit and not sure today is the day.

The final one is Rock Exhibition who has been running over hurdles since coming over to this country from Ireland. She has won on heavy ground over there in a fillies maiden but what that form amounts to is debatable and she has shown nothing since to think she is about to win again. Dropping down the handicap all the time but might need a further drop before she returns to the winners enclosure and definitely not one you could back unless you had some inside information!!

Overall I thought the selection was a decent bet at odds of 3/1+ and I will be disappointed if she doesn''t at least give me a good run for my money!!!