I thought todays card were quite difficult and whilst I expect one or two horses to run quite well there are enough reasons for not getting involved with them today.
As I have already mentioned I try and avoid Goodwood whenever possible however I do like the chances of Safari Sunrise in the 2.45 today. I has a few quid on at a decent price on Sunday and it showed a tremendous turn of foot in coming from last to first indside the last two furlongs. When you consider that it was checked in its run and still won a shade cosily, it might be able to defy the penalty today. This seasons emerging talent Freddie Tylicki again takes the ride and you really are getting a 3lb pull when he is in the saddle. The horse is still well treated on some of its old form and from stall 14 I think it could go close......only my dislike of Goodwood prevents me from getting involved!!
Over at Bangor another horse which I am watching closely is Danny Zuko, and after running on surfaces which were too soft, it finally gets a nice fast surface to run on today. Last time out I mentioned it as one to watch and it was still going ok and would probably have finished second before all but falling at the last fence at Cartmel. Today it returns to a course where it has winning hurdles form and I think this could run better than the 7/1 odds sugget. Two things put me off today, I would have preferred to see Jason Maguire on it and not the 7lb claimer, and also the presence of a potential handicap good thing of Jonjo O'Neills, which makes its chase debut.
Finally a little mention for a mate of mines horse, Word of Warning which runs in the 3.40 Bangor. This horse has definitely got a race in him and was fancied last time before the torrential rain in Perth put paid to its chances. Today it has the fast ground that it needs and I think a big run is expected. The Vaughan yard has a potential party spoiler though in the shape of Zafar who makes its debut for the ayrd today and the from of its latest run in Ireland has been franked several times and you get the impression that there is more to come.
A good days racing but unfoirtunately nothing really strong enough to get too heavily involved in.
I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts.
Friday 31 July 2009
Thursday 30 July 2009
Magical Musselburgh!!
There is one strong bet today:
8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)
This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.
The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!
Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!
The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!
Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.
Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.
Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.
Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.
As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!
A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!
ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.
8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)
This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.
The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!
Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!
The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!
Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.
Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.
Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.
Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.
As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!
A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!
ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.
Wednesday 29 July 2009
Nothing For Today!
I didn't think much of todays racing and it was an easy decision for me to leave it alone. I have always found Goodwood a notoriously difficult track to get right and time and time again my horses seem to get hampered or have no luck in running!
I do think that the filly Ghanaati looks a bit special and if the ground remains fast I think she will win the Sussex Stakes today. I thought her display in winning the 1000 Guineas was sensational and she broke the course record but the victory in the Coronation Stakes was even more impressive and once again she clocked an amazing time. With only 4 runs under her belt she is open to further improvement but the general price of 9/4 is not exactly giving much away and she does face the fellas for the first time. A fascinating race but not one to be throwing much money at.
Just one other horse to mention is Norwegian Dancer in the 4.00 Goodwood. This horse caught my eye on both of its last starts when winning very impressively over 10f at Chester. Today it steps up to 12f for the first time and I think it could bring about more improvement. The jockey gets on well with the horse and in a very tough looking race a price of around 20/1 looks reasonable if you're looking to get involved.
Lets hope there is a bit more for us to go at tomorrow!
I do think that the filly Ghanaati looks a bit special and if the ground remains fast I think she will win the Sussex Stakes today. I thought her display in winning the 1000 Guineas was sensational and she broke the course record but the victory in the Coronation Stakes was even more impressive and once again she clocked an amazing time. With only 4 runs under her belt she is open to further improvement but the general price of 9/4 is not exactly giving much away and she does face the fellas for the first time. A fascinating race but not one to be throwing much money at.
Just one other horse to mention is Norwegian Dancer in the 4.00 Goodwood. This horse caught my eye on both of its last starts when winning very impressively over 10f at Chester. Today it steps up to 12f for the first time and I think it could bring about more improvement. The jockey gets on well with the horse and in a very tough looking race a price of around 20/1 looks reasonable if you're looking to get involved.
Lets hope there is a bit more for us to go at tomorrow!
Tuesday 28 July 2009
Who Needs Glorious Goodwood???
I'm issuing an early message today as I believe that the two selections I have could both be well supported. I thought the Beverley card was excellent today and it was really interesting going through the last five handicaps on the card, indeed there may be a further bet but with the possibility of a non runner I'm going to wait a while.
I have two account bets at this stage:
4.20 Beverley - Nevada Desert - 1pt ew (available at 12/1 with Tote, Coral,11/1 with Paddy Power , Blue Sq) this is after the 2 non runners
6.00 Beverley - Fossgate - 1pt ew (available at 10/1 with Bet365, 9's generally)
I will go into detail later on but both of these horses are weighted to win and love the course.
Nevada Desert looks to have been laid out for this race today and has won the last two running of this race from higher marks. The trainer and jockey have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up in handicaps at this course (40%) and from a good draw (stall 11) I think this will go close. The odds of 14/1 and 16's in a place are way out of line in my book and it warrants a bet.
Fossgate is a horse that has an excellent course record as well and showed signs of coming to hand on its latest run over C & D. That day it travelled really well and hit the front a furlong out only to fade away and finish 6th. Assuming that this has come on again for the run, combined with a further drop in the weights (it actually has to carry 2lbs overweight but still on a good mark), it has a decent draw in stall 9 and is 2.5 times the price of Shaylee whom it is weighted to finish very close to. The only slight negative I can find is the jockey, Royston French is 0-17 when riding for James Bethell however he is a decent jockey and maybe today will be the day he breaks his duck!!
There may be a further bet later on but I think these are overpriced and warrant an early move.
Good luck
I have two account bets at this stage:
4.20 Beverley - Nevada Desert - 1pt ew (available at 12/1 with Tote, Coral,11/1 with Paddy Power , Blue Sq) this is after the 2 non runners
6.00 Beverley - Fossgate - 1pt ew (available at 10/1 with Bet365, 9's generally)
I will go into detail later on but both of these horses are weighted to win and love the course.
Nevada Desert looks to have been laid out for this race today and has won the last two running of this race from higher marks. The trainer and jockey have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up in handicaps at this course (40%) and from a good draw (stall 11) I think this will go close. The odds of 14/1 and 16's in a place are way out of line in my book and it warrants a bet.
Fossgate is a horse that has an excellent course record as well and showed signs of coming to hand on its latest run over C & D. That day it travelled really well and hit the front a furlong out only to fade away and finish 6th. Assuming that this has come on again for the run, combined with a further drop in the weights (it actually has to carry 2lbs overweight but still on a good mark), it has a decent draw in stall 9 and is 2.5 times the price of Shaylee whom it is weighted to finish very close to. The only slight negative I can find is the jockey, Royston French is 0-17 when riding for James Bethell however he is a decent jockey and maybe today will be the day he breaks his duck!!
There may be a further bet later on but I think these are overpriced and warrant an early move.
Good luck
Monday 27 July 2009
Ran Out Of Time!!!
I've not managed to find as much time as I hoped this afternoon to check out the form and therefore I can't advise anything for the account. The horse I was interested in was Magnifico in the 7.55 Uttoxeter but there are only the dead eight running at the minute and the price is shorter than I was expecting. I still expect this horse to run well and the recent rain at the track will be in its favour. It is dropped into selling company for the first time in its career and wouldn't have to improve much, if any, on some of its recent runs.
A few doubts with runners and the price are enough to put me off though, so we will just have to hope that there is something of more interest tomorrow with Glorious Goodwood kicking off.
A few doubts with runners and the price are enough to put me off though, so we will just have to hope that there is something of more interest tomorrow with Glorious Goodwood kicking off.
Where's The Summer Gone?
Yesterdays selection ran a respectable race and managed to get in the frame so not a lot of damage done. I was quite pleased that the early morning favourite which I was keen to oppose was out of the frame and the one I made the biggest danger won the race, so not the worst read of a race ever!!!
Todays racing is pretty poor and I could find nothing of any real interest at either Southwell or Yarmouth. I was quite keen on the chances of Charles Parnell in the 3.15 at Southwell as it looks to be a certainty to place and I think it will push the favourite close. Unfortunately the price is shorter than I was hoping for and not interested in getting involved now.
There is one runner at Uttoxeter this evening which I am interested in but with all the rain about non runners are the problem and I'm going to leave it until much later before I make a decision on the race.
I'll be back on here later with my thoughts and the phone message will be updated by 6pm if there is anything doing.
Todays racing is pretty poor and I could find nothing of any real interest at either Southwell or Yarmouth. I was quite keen on the chances of Charles Parnell in the 3.15 at Southwell as it looks to be a certainty to place and I think it will push the favourite close. Unfortunately the price is shorter than I was hoping for and not interested in getting involved now.
There is one runner at Uttoxeter this evening which I am interested in but with all the rain about non runners are the problem and I'm going to leave it until much later before I make a decision on the race.
I'll be back on here later with my thoughts and the phone message will be updated by 6pm if there is anything doing.
Sunday 26 July 2009
Horses For Courses!!
We've had a decent couple of days and it's been nice to find a couple of winners for the account. I'm hoping that we can continue the recent run with one account selection today:
3.00 Carlisle - Rowan Lodge 1pt ew (available at 4/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred & WH, although 9/2 was available when the texts were sent out and the phone line updated)
Rowan Lodge has a great record in these types of races and goes particularly well at Carlisle with a record of 3 wins and a 4th from just 4 starts. The jockey has been successful on him 5 times and clearly they are a force to be reckoned with at this venue in claiming grade. On official figures the horse has a bit to find with a couple of todays rivals but these official marks can be flattering and I would prefer to back a horse which you know is running consistently to its current mark than chance something which has run nowhere near to its official rating of late.
Todays favourite is Hiccups and it tries 8f for the first time in a career that spans 65 starts. I can't say it won't get the trip but the sire stats are 0-23 over a mile which hardly inspires confidence! It has been doing most of its running around sharp left hand turning tracks such as Thirsk and Catterick and todays test will be a completely different kettle of fish. It can't be discounted as it is very well in with the selection on official ratings however I'm happy to take this horse on today. A bigger danger may be Karl Burkes runner, Moody Tunes, who comes here off the back of a decent run yesterday at Newcastle. It loves cut in the ground and is one of the higher rated in the field but I prefer Rowan Lodge over this C & D today.
A case could be made for the Swinbank runner, Ozone Trustee, however it has a bit to find with Moody Tunes on yesterdays running and happy to take it on.
Of the rest only Portrush Storm makes any appeal and whilst this could be in the shake up (booking of Seb Sanders is quite eyecatching) it would have to improve markedly on what it has been showing of late.
Overall I thought Rowan Lodge was a decent bet to make the frame at least and I make it the most likely winner.
Elsewhere there is a decent card at Ascot and I will be having a few quid on Storyland in the 4.35 race. This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and todays race looks tailor made for a big run. The race is highly competitive however and that prevents me from putting it up as an account bet.
All the best
Gags
3.00 Carlisle - Rowan Lodge 1pt ew (available at 4/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred & WH, although 9/2 was available when the texts were sent out and the phone line updated)
Rowan Lodge has a great record in these types of races and goes particularly well at Carlisle with a record of 3 wins and a 4th from just 4 starts. The jockey has been successful on him 5 times and clearly they are a force to be reckoned with at this venue in claiming grade. On official figures the horse has a bit to find with a couple of todays rivals but these official marks can be flattering and I would prefer to back a horse which you know is running consistently to its current mark than chance something which has run nowhere near to its official rating of late.
Todays favourite is Hiccups and it tries 8f for the first time in a career that spans 65 starts. I can't say it won't get the trip but the sire stats are 0-23 over a mile which hardly inspires confidence! It has been doing most of its running around sharp left hand turning tracks such as Thirsk and Catterick and todays test will be a completely different kettle of fish. It can't be discounted as it is very well in with the selection on official ratings however I'm happy to take this horse on today. A bigger danger may be Karl Burkes runner, Moody Tunes, who comes here off the back of a decent run yesterday at Newcastle. It loves cut in the ground and is one of the higher rated in the field but I prefer Rowan Lodge over this C & D today.
A case could be made for the Swinbank runner, Ozone Trustee, however it has a bit to find with Moody Tunes on yesterdays running and happy to take it on.
Of the rest only Portrush Storm makes any appeal and whilst this could be in the shake up (booking of Seb Sanders is quite eyecatching) it would have to improve markedly on what it has been showing of late.
Overall I thought Rowan Lodge was a decent bet to make the frame at least and I make it the most likely winner.
Elsewhere there is a decent card at Ascot and I will be having a few quid on Storyland in the 4.35 race. This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and todays race looks tailor made for a big run. The race is highly competitive however and that prevents me from putting it up as an account bet.
All the best
Gags
Saturday 25 July 2009
One For This Evening...
One bet this evening for me:
6.00 Salisbury - Gallego - 1pt ew (available at 9/2 with Lads, Sportingbet, Stan James and WH)
Gallego has a record of 3 wins from 3 runs at this course and was victorious in this race last year off a 3lb lower mark but then went on to win at Sandown off a mark 4lb higher than todays. Last time out he came with his customary last to first run and won over 7f and a 3lb rise hardly looks insurmountable. The ground should be ideal and the jockey has struck up a fine rapport with the horse so everything looks in place for a big run.
A quick word on the price, this appears to be quite weak in the market and I'm hoping that the shrewd money comes nearer the off for it.
There are one or two rivals who could have improvement in them but I'll be disappointed if Gallego isn't in the shake up at the finish.
Good luck
Gags
6.00 Salisbury - Gallego - 1pt ew (available at 9/2 with Lads, Sportingbet, Stan James and WH)
Gallego has a record of 3 wins from 3 runs at this course and was victorious in this race last year off a 3lb lower mark but then went on to win at Sandown off a mark 4lb higher than todays. Last time out he came with his customary last to first run and won over 7f and a 3lb rise hardly looks insurmountable. The ground should be ideal and the jockey has struck up a fine rapport with the horse so everything looks in place for a big run.
A quick word on the price, this appears to be quite weak in the market and I'm hoping that the shrewd money comes nearer the off for it.
There are one or two rivals who could have improvement in them but I'll be disappointed if Gallego isn't in the shake up at the finish.
Good luck
Gags
More Of The same?
A welcome winning day yesterday and whilst I don't have a selection for the account at this stage there is a very strong possibility that there will be something for this evening.
There is plenty of racing today and a number of races which I looked at in some depth. I was quite keen on one at Newcastle but it seems that I wasn't the only one and the price was smashed from 9/1 into 5/1 in the space of an hour!!! My only possibility of an account bet runs this evening and I would prefer to wait until nearer the off as the price seems a little unstable at the minute and not going to rush when it's not necessary!!
Anyway I will let you have my thoughts on the other races but in each case there were enough reasons to leave it alone.
Ascot
2.40 - JIRA.....looks the form pick but a tough race and no value in the price
3.50 - SECRET SOCIETY...looks very progressive and the big field and fast pace should suit. Race tends to be won by 4yos so stats against it but I don't think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest but at 7/1 happy to watch.
4.25 - CONDUIT....the return to 12f is a massive plus and this looks the likeliest winner to me. Only problem is the price of 7/4 and I believe it would prefer a more galloping track.
Newmarket
2.20 - KING CHARLES...this is a horse that has been knocking on the door for some time but finally delivered last time out. Up 5lbs but still could be capable of winning again now it has remembered how to win again. At 3/1 its short enough to put me off even in a fairly weak looking race.
Newcastle
4.10 - URSULA...bolted up the other day and I think it will defy the penalty under ideal conditions. Only 7 runners and a top price of 2/1 is not giving much away.
4.45 - ARABIAN SPIRIT.....I'm quite keen on this one today. It is feasibly weighted and has the soft ground that it needs for the first time this season. Dunlop has a 21% strike rate at the course but I'm a little put off by the booking of Dale Gibson but it should still run well and 7/1 looks a fair price.
5.20 - BRAVELY..this would have been a bet today if the 9/1 that was available earlier still existed!! I suspect it has been put up by a large tipping service as the price has been slashed into a top price 5/1 and I can't get involved with it now. The ground looks ideal and I think it could be a masterstroke dropping it back to the minimum distance as it seems to travel really well.
I will be back later if I'm betting this evening.
Good luck
Gags
There is plenty of racing today and a number of races which I looked at in some depth. I was quite keen on one at Newcastle but it seems that I wasn't the only one and the price was smashed from 9/1 into 5/1 in the space of an hour!!! My only possibility of an account bet runs this evening and I would prefer to wait until nearer the off as the price seems a little unstable at the minute and not going to rush when it's not necessary!!
Anyway I will let you have my thoughts on the other races but in each case there were enough reasons to leave it alone.
Ascot
2.40 - JIRA.....looks the form pick but a tough race and no value in the price
3.50 - SECRET SOCIETY...looks very progressive and the big field and fast pace should suit. Race tends to be won by 4yos so stats against it but I don't think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest but at 7/1 happy to watch.
4.25 - CONDUIT....the return to 12f is a massive plus and this looks the likeliest winner to me. Only problem is the price of 7/4 and I believe it would prefer a more galloping track.
Newmarket
2.20 - KING CHARLES...this is a horse that has been knocking on the door for some time but finally delivered last time out. Up 5lbs but still could be capable of winning again now it has remembered how to win again. At 3/1 its short enough to put me off even in a fairly weak looking race.
Newcastle
4.10 - URSULA...bolted up the other day and I think it will defy the penalty under ideal conditions. Only 7 runners and a top price of 2/1 is not giving much away.
4.45 - ARABIAN SPIRIT.....I'm quite keen on this one today. It is feasibly weighted and has the soft ground that it needs for the first time this season. Dunlop has a 21% strike rate at the course but I'm a little put off by the booking of Dale Gibson but it should still run well and 7/1 looks a fair price.
5.20 - BRAVELY..this would have been a bet today if the 9/1 that was available earlier still existed!! I suspect it has been put up by a large tipping service as the price has been slashed into a top price 5/1 and I can't get involved with it now. The ground looks ideal and I think it could be a masterstroke dropping it back to the minimum distance as it seems to travel really well.
I will be back later if I'm betting this evening.
Good luck
Gags
Friday 24 July 2009
Busy Day!
I'm going to play in three races today and whilst I'm keeping the stakes small I think there are valid reasons for backing them all. The bets are:
4.25 Ascot - Hendersyde - 1PT win (available at 7/2 WH, 10/3 generally)
5.20 Thirsk - Blessed Place - 1PT ew (available at 7/1 Sky, 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally)
6.20 Chepstow - Queen Excalibur - 1PT win (available at 33/1 SJ, 28/1 VC, 25/1 Sky, generally 20/1)
Once again time has dictated that I have to keep my analysis brief but hopefully they will run their races.
Briefly, Hendersyde is the form pick in the race and should be a shorter price IMO against a horse that has won very easily in poor races but gone up the handicap markedly as a result (Alanbrooke). It is clearly improving but it might not get an easy lead like it has on its last two starts and I think it is too short.
Blessed Place ran a good race last time, is well handicapped and finished a close second in this race last year. There are several horses reopposing today and on the formline of that race I make BP the best in at the weights. It is a front runner who has got the ideal draw and I expected it to be a shorter price today.
Queen Excalibur is a hugely speculative selection but I think I may have spotted something that most punters will not have seen. It ran a very creditable race over hurdles last week when runner up in a seller at Worcester and I saw the trainer interviewed prior to the race and he was expecting a big run. It has never won on the flat but a run over course and distance last July was what caught my eye. That day it was 10lb out of the handicap and yet it only just got pipped on the line at an SP of 50/1. Today it runs off its correct mark (which is lower than last years), it goes on soft ground and we know that the horse is in a reasonable bit of form. This could bomb out but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance.
Good luck if you play.
Gags
4.25 Ascot - Hendersyde - 1PT win (available at 7/2 WH, 10/3 generally)
5.20 Thirsk - Blessed Place - 1PT ew (available at 7/1 Sky, 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally)
6.20 Chepstow - Queen Excalibur - 1PT win (available at 33/1 SJ, 28/1 VC, 25/1 Sky, generally 20/1)
Once again time has dictated that I have to keep my analysis brief but hopefully they will run their races.
Briefly, Hendersyde is the form pick in the race and should be a shorter price IMO against a horse that has won very easily in poor races but gone up the handicap markedly as a result (Alanbrooke). It is clearly improving but it might not get an easy lead like it has on its last two starts and I think it is too short.
Blessed Place ran a good race last time, is well handicapped and finished a close second in this race last year. There are several horses reopposing today and on the formline of that race I make BP the best in at the weights. It is a front runner who has got the ideal draw and I expected it to be a shorter price today.
Queen Excalibur is a hugely speculative selection but I think I may have spotted something that most punters will not have seen. It ran a very creditable race over hurdles last week when runner up in a seller at Worcester and I saw the trainer interviewed prior to the race and he was expecting a big run. It has never won on the flat but a run over course and distance last July was what caught my eye. That day it was 10lb out of the handicap and yet it only just got pipped on the line at an SP of 50/1. Today it runs off its correct mark (which is lower than last years), it goes on soft ground and we know that the horse is in a reasonable bit of form. This could bomb out but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance.
Good luck if you play.
Gags
Tuesday 21 July 2009
Thanks and see you soon
First of all many thanks to everyone who has sent through emails following on from events over the past few weeks. It has obviously been a tough time and I am going to take a proper break from posting on here. As suggested previously Gags will look after things on his own while I am away, although I will still update the phone message as and when he is betting.
I will be returning to posting on here and studying form properly on Saturday 5th September. Hopefully between now and then Gags can come up with a few winners and help pay for my time off. Until then, thanks, good luck and stay healthy.
I will be returning to posting on here and studying form properly on Saturday 5th September. Hopefully between now and then Gags can come up with a few winners and help pay for my time off. Until then, thanks, good luck and stay healthy.
Saturday 18 July 2009
Couple Of Bets Today...
I have decided to play in a couple of races today and after watching the first race I'm happy that the ground is riding pretty soft and that will suit the selections:
2.20 Newbury - Festoso - 1pt ew (available at 9/1)
2.50 Newbury - Izzibizzi - 1pt win (available at 16/1)
Both of these horses require plenty of cut in the ground to produce their best and with many of their rivals unlikely to find it in their favour I think that these two are worth a punt at the prices.
Festoso did us a favour the other month and has won a listed race over this trip in heavy ground and it clearly relishes these conditions. On form it has a bit to find with some and whilst I make War Artist the most likely winner we need to see whether its as good on this ground. High Standing has gone up considerably in the weights after winning well in some good handicaps but is another unproven on the ground and in this class. Prime Defender has done all its winning on fast ground and the only other one aside from the selection with form on soft ground is Madame Trop Vite and that is yet to prove it gets 6F. Hopeful of a big run from Festoso and the terms are good.
Izzibizzi is a little speculative, however it should never be the 16/1 outsider in this field. It won over C & D last year on soft ground and that day it had two of todays rivals behind it. It meets both of them on better terms today yet incredibly is 3 or 4 times the price. The trainer is not in the best of form so that is a concern but at the odds it has to be worth a small stakes bet.
2.20 Newbury - Festoso - 1pt ew (available at 9/1)
2.50 Newbury - Izzibizzi - 1pt win (available at 16/1)
Both of these horses require plenty of cut in the ground to produce their best and with many of their rivals unlikely to find it in their favour I think that these two are worth a punt at the prices.
Festoso did us a favour the other month and has won a listed race over this trip in heavy ground and it clearly relishes these conditions. On form it has a bit to find with some and whilst I make War Artist the most likely winner we need to see whether its as good on this ground. High Standing has gone up considerably in the weights after winning well in some good handicaps but is another unproven on the ground and in this class. Prime Defender has done all its winning on fast ground and the only other one aside from the selection with form on soft ground is Madame Trop Vite and that is yet to prove it gets 6F. Hopeful of a big run from Festoso and the terms are good.
Izzibizzi is a little speculative, however it should never be the 16/1 outsider in this field. It won over C & D last year on soft ground and that day it had two of todays rivals behind it. It meets both of them on better terms today yet incredibly is 3 or 4 times the price. The trainer is not in the best of form so that is a concern but at the odds it has to be worth a small stakes bet.
Thursday 16 July 2009
A Bet At Last!
There is one bet for today:
8.40 Doncaster - Best Prospect - 1pt each way (available at 7/1 generally)
This horse is a bridle horse which always travels well in its races but invariably fails to deliver at the business end. That said it has won 6 times on the flat and twice over hurdles so it can hardly be called a perennial loser!! Jamie Spencer gets on really well with the horse and has won four times on it and today the horse runs over a course and distance that it has been successful over before and gets the soft ground that it requires. The horse has won off marks higher than this on 4 occasions and ran a fair race last time whern 3rd at Newcastle just under three weeks ago.
The race does have a competitive look to it and you can give chances to Charlie Tokyo and Rangefinder now they have conditions which should suit but on the whole it faces a number of rivals who might not like the conditions as much as the selection. The horse will be played late and hopefully it will condescend to finish the job off if it gets close enough.
Elsewhere on the day I was quite keen on Danny Zuko in the 2.30 Cartmel but this horse really needs the ground on the fast side and with doubts as to how it will be riding then at 4/1 I can't get involved. Definitely one to keep an eye on when things come in it's favour though!
Over at Bath in the 8.55 race I thought Espy could go close and looks like it is ready to return to the winners enclosure any time soon , however there are one or two others in the field that look like they may have been laid out for the race, Heaven for example, and at odds of around 6/1 I am happy to watch.
Good luck if you play
Gags
8.40 Doncaster - Best Prospect - 1pt each way (available at 7/1 generally)
This horse is a bridle horse which always travels well in its races but invariably fails to deliver at the business end. That said it has won 6 times on the flat and twice over hurdles so it can hardly be called a perennial loser!! Jamie Spencer gets on really well with the horse and has won four times on it and today the horse runs over a course and distance that it has been successful over before and gets the soft ground that it requires. The horse has won off marks higher than this on 4 occasions and ran a fair race last time whern 3rd at Newcastle just under three weeks ago.
The race does have a competitive look to it and you can give chances to Charlie Tokyo and Rangefinder now they have conditions which should suit but on the whole it faces a number of rivals who might not like the conditions as much as the selection. The horse will be played late and hopefully it will condescend to finish the job off if it gets close enough.
Elsewhere on the day I was quite keen on Danny Zuko in the 2.30 Cartmel but this horse really needs the ground on the fast side and with doubts as to how it will be riding then at 4/1 I can't get involved. Definitely one to keep an eye on when things come in it's favour though!
Over at Bath in the 8.55 race I thought Espy could go close and looks like it is ready to return to the winners enclosure any time soon , however there are one or two others in the field that look like they may have been laid out for the race, Heaven for example, and at odds of around 6/1 I am happy to watch.
Good luck if you play
Gags
Wednesday 15 July 2009
Little Of Interest Today.....
I thought todays cards were very uninspiring and considereing we are supposed to be in the middle of the flat turf season the fact that there is only one full turf meeting at Catterick is rather surprising to say the least....or maybe not when you consider the people who are organising the fixtures!!!
Anyway with all the rain around and the clerks of the courses seeming unable to give accurate going descriptions it is probably not a day for getting too heavily involved. I am having a small trade on Sea Salt in the 3.00 Catterick at the current odds of 14/1 and if the ground is riding on the soft side this will be more suited than many of its rivals. The draw in 12 would normally be a huge negative, particularly over the sprint distances at Catterick, but it can work the opposite way when the ground rides soft. The runners tend to head for the stands rail on such occasions and hence the 12 box would suddenly be a big advantage. Too speculative to go mad about and it would need to return to form after some below average performances but having changed stables to Ruth Barr (the grand-daughter of the legendary sprint trainer David Chapman) then it might rekindle some of its old appetite for the game.
There are a couple that are potentially interesting at Kempton this evening and if there is any action it will be on the phone message by 6pm.
Just a quick word on yesterday, the info was pretty much spot on with the first mention going off a heavily backed 9/4 favourite and running out a cosy winner and the second selection being heavily backed into 4/1 and trading much shorter in running before finishing second. Hopefully I can continue to find horses like this and I'll get some winners back on the main account before too long!
Good luck
Gags
Anyway with all the rain around and the clerks of the courses seeming unable to give accurate going descriptions it is probably not a day for getting too heavily involved. I am having a small trade on Sea Salt in the 3.00 Catterick at the current odds of 14/1 and if the ground is riding on the soft side this will be more suited than many of its rivals. The draw in 12 would normally be a huge negative, particularly over the sprint distances at Catterick, but it can work the opposite way when the ground rides soft. The runners tend to head for the stands rail on such occasions and hence the 12 box would suddenly be a big advantage. Too speculative to go mad about and it would need to return to form after some below average performances but having changed stables to Ruth Barr (the grand-daughter of the legendary sprint trainer David Chapman) then it might rekindle some of its old appetite for the game.
There are a couple that are potentially interesting at Kempton this evening and if there is any action it will be on the phone message by 6pm.
Just a quick word on yesterday, the info was pretty much spot on with the first mention going off a heavily backed 9/4 favourite and running out a cosy winner and the second selection being heavily backed into 4/1 and trading much shorter in running before finishing second. Hopefully I can continue to find horses like this and I'll get some winners back on the main account before too long!
Good luck
Gags
Tuesday 14 July 2009
A Few With Chances......
Todays racing is the typical Tuesday midweek stuff that we have come to expect over the last few years with mainly uninspiring horses running at the holiday resorts!!!!
I was quite keen on one running in the 4.45 at Beverley today but there appears to have been a few quid for this one already this morning and at the current price I can't get involved. The horse in question is Danehillsundance and it is a horse that has been steadily creeping down the weights but definitely showed a bit more sparkle last time over a trip longer than ideal and it is sure to return to the winners circle before too long. A stiff 8f on fast ground looks ideal for it and in a race where there are doubts about several of its rivals (ground, handicap mark) I thought that it was the most likely winner. Happy to swerve the race now the best prices have gone but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Over at Southwell this evening I thought Echo Dancer could go well in the 8.40 now that it is returned to the C & D of its only previous win (admittedly that was in a weak maiden event) however the trainer has an outstanding record at the course and is always one to keep on the right side of. At 9/1 this is arguably worth a small trade but I'm not going to get heavily involved as there are one or two others in the field open to any amount of improvement and therefore a watching brief I'm afraid.
I'll be back on here tomorrow with my thoughts all being well.
Gags
I was quite keen on one running in the 4.45 at Beverley today but there appears to have been a few quid for this one already this morning and at the current price I can't get involved. The horse in question is Danehillsundance and it is a horse that has been steadily creeping down the weights but definitely showed a bit more sparkle last time over a trip longer than ideal and it is sure to return to the winners circle before too long. A stiff 8f on fast ground looks ideal for it and in a race where there are doubts about several of its rivals (ground, handicap mark) I thought that it was the most likely winner. Happy to swerve the race now the best prices have gone but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Over at Southwell this evening I thought Echo Dancer could go well in the 8.40 now that it is returned to the C & D of its only previous win (admittedly that was in a weak maiden event) however the trainer has an outstanding record at the course and is always one to keep on the right side of. At 9/1 this is arguably worth a small trade but I'm not going to get heavily involved as there are one or two others in the field open to any amount of improvement and therefore a watching brief I'm afraid.
I'll be back on here tomorrow with my thoughts all being well.
Gags
Monday 13 July 2009
What Does The Future Hold?
Following Mick's decision to take a break from the blog for the foreseeable future I have been questioning whether to continue with things...I have given it consideration but I believe that the hard work and effort that we have put into things over the last few months would be wasted if I was to bring the curtain down just yet....As we have explained on here on many occasions it's not getting any easier to find the time to post the selections and analysis on the blog however as I will still be looking at the form each night it would seem silly to completely close things down. I have spoken to Mick and he is prepared to continue putting the messages on the phone, although these may not be as frequent as they currently are (especially when he is away on holiday). If I am having a bet I will post it on here and send the email (when possible) but the analysis may be lacking any real depth depending on the time factor.
I would like to thank everybody who has followed the blog over the last few months and hope they will continue to do so and hopefully we will start to see some results that justify the hard work and effort that has gone into providing this information.
On behalf of Mick I would like to thank all the well wishers and i'm sure it won't be long before he is back up to full speed.
All the best
Gags
I would like to thank everybody who has followed the blog over the last few months and hope they will continue to do so and hopefully we will start to see some results that justify the hard work and effort that has gone into providing this information.
On behalf of Mick I would like to thank all the well wishers and i'm sure it won't be long before he is back up to full speed.
All the best
Gags
Sunday 12 July 2009
Always Look On The Bright Side...........
This last week has possibly been one of the worst I have had the misfortune to suffer in my life.
Sadly my mum passed away recently and her funeral was on Wednesday. She was a wonderful lady and we will all miss her very much. We turned her funeral into a celebration of her life as that was what she wanted. As if that wasn't hard enough to deal with, my brother's mother-in-law also passed away recently and her funeral was on Thursday. Obviously it has been a tough time for all of us on a personal level.
Professionally things don't look too great either with news coming on Thursday that up to half of the workforce will probably be made redundant in about 30 days time. Whilst this news hasn't totally surprised me it has come at a tough time and I could have done without it. I believe we will all find out in the next week or so whether our services will be required in future or if we need to find alternative ways of earning a living. I won't dwell too much on either the personal losses or the difficulties at work because that's not what the blog is supposed to be about.
So last of all we have the punting. Well yesterday was a real kick in the teeth. I picked out a couple I felt were worth backing in what time I had to study form. One ran well enough and one ran a shocker, but the real nightmare was in seeing three horses we backed last time out all win yesterday, all in similar races. Aqlaam 15/8 at Ascot, Hits Only Vic 16/1 at York and West End Lad 9/1 at Nottingham ran yesterday how we'd hoped and liked to have seen them run the time before. It just shows how fine the line is between success and failure and I guess when when things aren't going your way then this is what happens.
We will be taking a family holiday at some stage in the near future. My dad could do with a break, indeed I think we all could. Until I come back from that break I won't be putting up any more bets or posts on here. If Gags wishes to continue with things while I am away then that's fine by me, but I need to think about things a little. When I do return it may well be the case that I need to make my living from punting and if I'm going to make that work then I need to get back to to what I do best and what has always worked and made money for me. During the last few weeks there have been far too many speculative bets and that's not how I like betting or how I will be betting in future. I will be getting back to basics, much more along the lines of how things were at the start of the year.
As I've already said Gags may well continue with things while I take a break. I will speak with him later and ask him to post just so everything is clear.
For now, from me, good luck and stay healthy.
Sadly my mum passed away recently and her funeral was on Wednesday. She was a wonderful lady and we will all miss her very much. We turned her funeral into a celebration of her life as that was what she wanted. As if that wasn't hard enough to deal with, my brother's mother-in-law also passed away recently and her funeral was on Thursday. Obviously it has been a tough time for all of us on a personal level.
Professionally things don't look too great either with news coming on Thursday that up to half of the workforce will probably be made redundant in about 30 days time. Whilst this news hasn't totally surprised me it has come at a tough time and I could have done without it. I believe we will all find out in the next week or so whether our services will be required in future or if we need to find alternative ways of earning a living. I won't dwell too much on either the personal losses or the difficulties at work because that's not what the blog is supposed to be about.
So last of all we have the punting. Well yesterday was a real kick in the teeth. I picked out a couple I felt were worth backing in what time I had to study form. One ran well enough and one ran a shocker, but the real nightmare was in seeing three horses we backed last time out all win yesterday, all in similar races. Aqlaam 15/8 at Ascot, Hits Only Vic 16/1 at York and West End Lad 9/1 at Nottingham ran yesterday how we'd hoped and liked to have seen them run the time before. It just shows how fine the line is between success and failure and I guess when when things aren't going your way then this is what happens.
We will be taking a family holiday at some stage in the near future. My dad could do with a break, indeed I think we all could. Until I come back from that break I won't be putting up any more bets or posts on here. If Gags wishes to continue with things while I am away then that's fine by me, but I need to think about things a little. When I do return it may well be the case that I need to make my living from punting and if I'm going to make that work then I need to get back to to what I do best and what has always worked and made money for me. During the last few weeks there have been far too many speculative bets and that's not how I like betting or how I will be betting in future. I will be getting back to basics, much more along the lines of how things were at the start of the year.
As I've already said Gags may well continue with things while I take a break. I will speak with him later and ask him to post just so everything is clear.
For now, from me, good luck and stay healthy.
Saturday 11 July 2009
Saturday 11th July - Two Bets
Gags is out today and has not had the opportunity to look at any of the racing on offer so I warn you in advance that the bets posted here are entirely my own work. Only time will tell if I've made the right decisions but I can assure you I've had decent bets on both horses. Hopefully the time and effort I've put in will be rewarded and they'll run well and generate a profit.
My first bet runs in the sprint due off at 330 at Chester. If you can forgive my selection his last run when he missed the break somewhat then I think
330 Chester HOH HOH HOH 1 point each way at 8/1 (incl Bet 365, BOG)
has as good a chance as the favourite which is priced up as short as 6/4. In his previous race he ran well in a listed event at Haydock and before that he finished in front of today's jolly in a Group 3 event at Newmarket. The horse has run well at this venue before and has a decent draw today. His trainer is in pretty good form with 4 wins and 7 places from his last 23 runners during the last month or so. In simple terms I just think the horse is overpriced and I had to get involved at the prices. Obvioulsy I can't guarantee the horse will run to form, no-one can, but if he does well I think he must go close.
Over at York the Listed Race for stayers has the Sir Michael Stoute trained Warringhah at the front of the market, but the one for me is
345 York FRISTON FOREST 2 points each way at 9/2 (Lads, Corals and Hills)
who is proven in the conditions, at the trip and in this class of event. I make him the most likely winner and with question marks over some of his rivals with regards to the distance and / or underfoot conditions I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least make the frame.
Nothing is certain in horseracing but if my selections run up to their best then I believe they'll both go close. Let's hope they run to form and enjoy that little bit of luck that all winners can do with from time to time.
Good luck if you are getting involved today.
My first bet runs in the sprint due off at 330 at Chester. If you can forgive my selection his last run when he missed the break somewhat then I think
330 Chester HOH HOH HOH 1 point each way at 8/1 (incl Bet 365, BOG)
has as good a chance as the favourite which is priced up as short as 6/4. In his previous race he ran well in a listed event at Haydock and before that he finished in front of today's jolly in a Group 3 event at Newmarket. The horse has run well at this venue before and has a decent draw today. His trainer is in pretty good form with 4 wins and 7 places from his last 23 runners during the last month or so. In simple terms I just think the horse is overpriced and I had to get involved at the prices. Obvioulsy I can't guarantee the horse will run to form, no-one can, but if he does well I think he must go close.
Over at York the Listed Race for stayers has the Sir Michael Stoute trained Warringhah at the front of the market, but the one for me is
345 York FRISTON FOREST 2 points each way at 9/2 (Lads, Corals and Hills)
who is proven in the conditions, at the trip and in this class of event. I make him the most likely winner and with question marks over some of his rivals with regards to the distance and / or underfoot conditions I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least make the frame.
Nothing is certain in horseracing but if my selections run up to their best then I believe they'll both go close. Let's hope they run to form and enjoy that little bit of luck that all winners can do with from time to time.
Good luck if you are getting involved today.
Monday 6 July 2009
A Couple We Will Be Trading......
There was nothing strong enough for the account today but we will probably be getting involved trading a couple at Ripon this evening. In the 8.20 we think Tagula Breeze is overpriced at around 16/1 and can't understand why there is such a discrepancy between this one and The Kyllachy Kid on a line through White Shift. It does look a fairly competitive race however and not one for big stakes.
In the 8.50 we think that Regal Lyric could run better than the 20/1 which is currently available with one of the big firms and it would be no surprise to see this one trade a lot shorter in running. Tate and Fenton have a fantastic course record and any of their horses are worth noting at Ripon. The form figures don't overly inspire but if you go far enough back it has got some decent pieces of form in the book which could see it fairly treated off a mark of 67 tonight. Once again it is far too speculative for an account bet but certainly worth a small stakes trade.
As usual all information is being given out daily on the usual standard mobile number 07807 462697 and the blog/texts/emails will be sent out as and when the opportunites arise.
Good Luck!
In the 8.50 we think that Regal Lyric could run better than the 20/1 which is currently available with one of the big firms and it would be no surprise to see this one trade a lot shorter in running. Tate and Fenton have a fantastic course record and any of their horses are worth noting at Ripon. The form figures don't overly inspire but if you go far enough back it has got some decent pieces of form in the book which could see it fairly treated off a mark of 67 tonight. Once again it is far too speculative for an account bet but certainly worth a small stakes trade.
As usual all information is being given out daily on the usual standard mobile number 07807 462697 and the blog/texts/emails will be sent out as and when the opportunites arise.
Good Luck!
Saturday 4 July 2009
No Emails Or Texts Today But..............
Unfortunately I will not be in a position to send out any emails later today. There is also a chance that Mick might not be able to send out any text messages. As a result any bets we are having today will be highlighted on a message which can be accessed by calling the number highlighted on the right hand side of the blog. This is a standard UK mobile number so anyone with a bundle of free minutes attached to their mobile will be able to call and access our views free of charge. To save you all one call there is no bet this afternoon but there may well be something this evening so a call at 6.30pm or shortly afterwards is advised.
Apologies for any inconvenience but circumstances do not always allow us to operate as we would wish.
Good luck if you play today.
Apologies for any inconvenience but circumstances do not always allow us to operate as we would wish.
Good luck if you play today.
Thursday 2 July 2009
A Busy Thursday
A busy day with plenty of decent racing on but unfortunately non-runners are playing havoc with the shape and terms on offer in some races.
We concentrated our efforts this afternoon on Haydock's card where we will be trading a couple but we have decided against putting them up as full account bets. The two races of interest are the 310 and 440.
In the 310 we cannot understand why SEA ROVER is still available at 33/1 with Stan James. This horse has form with one of the market leaders, is significantly better off at the weights for a 2 length defeat, has a record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 runs over the distance and clearly loves fast ground. Sea Rover has a decent jockey on board today and we think he could have a big chance if reverting back to a prominent running style with conditions to suit. The trainer's recent form is not great but his overall form at this venue adds to confidence that the horse could be set to run a big race. Of course there is a doubt about whether today is the day, but we think he could run a huge race and trade at a lot shorter than 33/1, allowing us to enjoy a free bet at the least. That's the plan anyway!
The last on the card looks set up for HAWRIDGE KING and TRIP THE LIGHT to run well and our preference would be for the first named who looks well treated for a return to optimum conditions with a positive jockey booking. We have two small concerns with regards to this race, firstly we've missed the boat as far as the really nice prices are concerned and secondly there are currently 8 set to go to post. Obviously one more non-runner would screw up the each way terms if not ensuring a further shortening of the horses price. Hawridge King is, though, our idea of the most likely winner.
We will be having a look at this evening's cards and any bets will be sent out and put on the message by about 6.30pm.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
We concentrated our efforts this afternoon on Haydock's card where we will be trading a couple but we have decided against putting them up as full account bets. The two races of interest are the 310 and 440.
In the 310 we cannot understand why SEA ROVER is still available at 33/1 with Stan James. This horse has form with one of the market leaders, is significantly better off at the weights for a 2 length defeat, has a record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 runs over the distance and clearly loves fast ground. Sea Rover has a decent jockey on board today and we think he could have a big chance if reverting back to a prominent running style with conditions to suit. The trainer's recent form is not great but his overall form at this venue adds to confidence that the horse could be set to run a big race. Of course there is a doubt about whether today is the day, but we think he could run a huge race and trade at a lot shorter than 33/1, allowing us to enjoy a free bet at the least. That's the plan anyway!
The last on the card looks set up for HAWRIDGE KING and TRIP THE LIGHT to run well and our preference would be for the first named who looks well treated for a return to optimum conditions with a positive jockey booking. We have two small concerns with regards to this race, firstly we've missed the boat as far as the really nice prices are concerned and secondly there are currently 8 set to go to post. Obviously one more non-runner would screw up the each way terms if not ensuring a further shortening of the horses price. Hawridge King is, though, our idea of the most likely winner.
We will be having a look at this evening's cards and any bets will be sent out and put on the message by about 6.30pm.
Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.
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