Lingfield and Wolverhampton provide the aw action today.
I looked at three races, starting with the 415 at Lingfield. I think the price on the jolly is about right, therefore no value, and I tried to find an alternative. I think one in here may get an uncontested lead but to back the horse in question you'd have to forgive the last two performances. I prefer to leave the race alone. My next port of call was the 650 at Wolverhampton but I just couldn't rule out enough of the runners to give me a decent edge. I ended up with five I thought could win and they're the front five in the market, so again a race to leave alone. The next on the card, the 720, is the the race which I spent most of my time on. Unfortunately I came up with more questions than answers so nothing doing here either.
It can be a tiny bit frustrating to spend time going through races only to come to the conclusion that the best course of action is not to get involved, but I'd rather that than throw money down the drain on horses I've got serious doubts about. As things stand my venture is going okay, I've had something like 42 bets on the sand so far this year, with around 60% of them at least making the frame and enough winning at decent prices to put me nicely in front. If I can maintain something similar throughout the year I'll be more than happy.
There is aw again tomorrow at Lingfield, where the Winter Derby will no doubt take centre stage. Who knows what that might throw up?
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4 comments:
Hi Mick,
Presumably Emperor Court is the horse you’ve identified as being likely to get an uncontested lead in the 4:15… This certainly makes it interesting from a back to lay IR perspective - and I actually think a case can be made for it to do better than just race prominently…
It is interesting that the last time it ran well, it was on the back of a 7 week break. There wasn’t such a gap to it’s next 2 runs… Today it is back after 7 weeks again. I read a piece once, that said free running sorts tend to need at least 6 weeks between races to fully recover. If this is correct (and it was a statement made on the back of some extensive research) Emperor Court may well revert to it’s December form today. In that case and with an uncontested lead, it should go very close…
Some food for thought for you !
A.
Yes mate, you've picked out the right one. This is not an account bet for me today, although I wouldn't put anyone off trading it. I said at the outset of this blog that I don't want to go in to too much detail unless I'm putting one on the account, but that doesn't stop others doing so!!!
Good luck
Unbelievable hey Mick - you just couldn't make it some times !!
I'm glad I didn't get involved now, that's for sure!
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