We've received lots of emails commenting on our approach, style of betting, call it what you will. There have been suggestions that we should bet win only as that would increase our profits in the long-term. Whilst that might possibly be the case it would go against the way we both sometimes like to bet. Despite betting with larger stakes than some, we consider ourselves to be cautious punters. Some say they don't mind long losing runs because they have an absolute belief in their own ability to make it pay in the long-term. We have that same belief in what we're doing, but we just don't like long losing runs!!!!
One well known punter, or is he an author now - lol - used to have more win bets in a couple of days than we'll have in a month. We've seen some really good "judges" question themselves for no other reason than their confidence is at rock bottom because they're in the middle of a nightmare run. Now the nightmare run might see them hit loads of placed selections from which their win only approach gains them nothing. Their analysis may have been almost perfect but they lose confidence because they're losing money and that has an impact on their decision making process and the knock-on effect can only be negative. Of course they'll benefit hugely as soon as the winners start to flow again, but for us that's too much of a roller-coaster ride to endure. We'd rather make less (possibly) in the long-term and enjoy a smoother journey getting there.
We bet each way for two reasons. Firstly, as oulined above, it helps to reduce the number of bets placed without getting a return and secondly, as Gags pointed out recently, there is still plenty of value to be had in betting this way when the circumstances are right. Even betting 1/5 the odds a place often represents value. Is this really true? Check out the place terms on the exchanges and compare them with what can be obtained in the high street on a "live" 7/2 or 4/1 shot when the market bets short on the jolly and 10/1 bar three in a 9 or 10 runner race.
Without doubt we will hit losing runs, just the same as the very best out there will, but we believe that by specialising and betting the way we do we will keep those losing runs to a minimum. Working this way enables us to remain confident and as I've said before, if you have real confidence in what you're doing then you're far more likely to succeed.
From what Gags tells me it seems we now have quite a few people following our selections with their own hard-earned. A couple of points I'd like to make. We won't tell anyone what to do with their own money. If people want follow our selections and to bet win only that's up to them. If people want to follow our selections to their own staking plan that's up to them too. If people want to trade our selections for free bets then that's fine by us as well. It doesn't really matter what anyone wants to do as far as we're concerned. This place is simply about our attempt to show that with a little thought and a bit of hard work this game can be made to pay, and pay well. One or two comments have been made to the effect that our results have been far more impressive than some of the services which charge a lot of money for their selections. All I'd say about that is "no comment on the services". I'd also point out that we're only 3 months in to our little 12 month venture. Hopefully we'll be able to achieve in quarters 2, 3 and 4 something similar to the results from the first quarter of the year.
I'm off to look at the sand stuff on offer for tomorrow and to make sure Gags gets the hard graft done before disappearing off to Aintree.
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
Nothing Doing!
As you will have gathered from the title there is nothing of any interest for either Mick or myself today. The AW and NH cards offered very little in terms of betting opportunites and I thought they were very low quality to be honest. The turf flat meetings continue at Folkestone today and whilst we are not going to be getting involved with these races for a while yet, we will be keeping a close eye on the races and monitoring horses for the future.
The horse that we put up as a potential horse which could shorten (in the Trading Places section) is now a non runner, so nothing doing there either.
Mick has also asked me to mention that if anybody who contacted him in the last few weeks with mobile numbers and/or email addresses could send this information to myself, so that I can add it to the distribution list. Apologies for any inconvenience caused.
Aintree is looming on the horizon and I'm actually going to be there on Thursday for what I consider to be one of the best days racing of the year. Mick is going to be out and about all day so there will be no posts on here, so if anybody does wish to receive any selections, please ensure you get in touch with me via email before then and leave a contact mobile number.
Have a nice day!
The horse that we put up as a potential horse which could shorten (in the Trading Places section) is now a non runner, so nothing doing there either.
Mick has also asked me to mention that if anybody who contacted him in the last few weeks with mobile numbers and/or email addresses could send this information to myself, so that I can add it to the distribution list. Apologies for any inconvenience caused.
Aintree is looming on the horizon and I'm actually going to be there on Thursday for what I consider to be one of the best days racing of the year. Mick is going to be out and about all day so there will be no posts on here, so if anybody does wish to receive any selections, please ensure you get in touch with me via email before then and leave a contact mobile number.
Have a nice day!
Monday, 30 March 2009
What Are The Plans?
Well things are certainly moving faster than we expected and I think we maybe need to highlight a few of our intentions for the rest of the year. Mick and I have both been making good money out of this game by following our own selections, as well as those of some advisors that we have got total faith in. We have both got very similar ideas about how to play the game and we both like to get involved in races where the terms are very much in the favour of the punter rather than the bookmaker. This means a lot of each way bets, usually in races with between 8 and 10 runners, where we believe there is value to be had and the selection has about an 80% chance of achieving a place. This doesn't mean that we won't play in other types of races, as we will from time to time, but this kind of bet will be the bread and butter of what we do and how we operate. We are both very selective and are happy to go several days without a bet until the right opportunity arises, but similarly we are quite happy to play in several races in one day, as long as we think we have an 'edge' of course. We have been working together for a couple of months now and both have total confidence in each others selections and so far we have achieved a more than satisfactory set of results. The target we have set ourselves is a total of 150+ points by the end of the year and this will be achieved from an average of approx 4 - 8 bets per week at an average stake of around 2 pts per bet. We will be aiming to make about 1 pt per bet (including losers) and the key to our strategy will be to keep losing runs to a minimum. Our current year to date figures are:
Profit per week: 4.4 pts
No. of bets per week: 4.4
Assuming we can continue at this rate then we will have no problem reaching the target we have set and I believe this is definitely achievable. In terms of the areas where we will aim to specialise, Mick will continue to look at the AW. There appears to be plenty of these meetings on throughout the summer, although we will have to wait and see what happens with the intended Great Leighs fixtures. He will also be looking at some of the better class turf stuff (primarily the races of 1 mile plus) whilst I will be sticking with the summer NH and also getting involved in the flat from May onwards.
One other area which we are keen to work on, as we both believe it offers excellent opportunities, is the recently added 'Trading Places' section. In here we intend to highlight horses which we think are likely to start at much shorter prices than those available earlier in the day. These horses should give us the chance to make a few quid using the online exchanges. This is something we have been looking at for a couple of months now and it is uncanny how many times we select horses which start significantly shorter than the odds we could obtain in the morning. I must point out that anything highlighted in this section will be totally independent of the account bets, however we will be monitoring the progress of the selections over the coming months. Anyway, there will be more info on that over the course of the next few weeks!
Finally (for now), if anybody is interested in receiving the selections via text or email, please drop me a note with a brief (or not so brief) word about yourself. The email address is shown under the 'contributors' tag on the right hand side of the blog under 'Gags'. We will be more than happy to do this free of charge for anybody who requests it. Remember, this is just a blog about two guys who are working hard and making it pay, a free-to-read diary of our own gambling exploits and a place where the selections will be posted for the public to form their own conclusions!
Profit per week: 4.4 pts
No. of bets per week: 4.4
Assuming we can continue at this rate then we will have no problem reaching the target we have set and I believe this is definitely achievable. In terms of the areas where we will aim to specialise, Mick will continue to look at the AW. There appears to be plenty of these meetings on throughout the summer, although we will have to wait and see what happens with the intended Great Leighs fixtures. He will also be looking at some of the better class turf stuff (primarily the races of 1 mile plus) whilst I will be sticking with the summer NH and also getting involved in the flat from May onwards.
One other area which we are keen to work on, as we both believe it offers excellent opportunities, is the recently added 'Trading Places' section. In here we intend to highlight horses which we think are likely to start at much shorter prices than those available earlier in the day. These horses should give us the chance to make a few quid using the online exchanges. This is something we have been looking at for a couple of months now and it is uncanny how many times we select horses which start significantly shorter than the odds we could obtain in the morning. I must point out that anything highlighted in this section will be totally independent of the account bets, however we will be monitoring the progress of the selections over the coming months. Anyway, there will be more info on that over the course of the next few weeks!
Finally (for now), if anybody is interested in receiving the selections via text or email, please drop me a note with a brief (or not so brief) word about yourself. The email address is shown under the 'contributors' tag on the right hand side of the blog under 'Gags'. We will be more than happy to do this free of charge for anybody who requests it. Remember, this is just a blog about two guys who are working hard and making it pay, a free-to-read diary of our own gambling exploits and a place where the selections will be posted for the public to form their own conclusions!
Another Well Backed Selection
Watson's Bay ran well enough and secured the place money, so another 2 points profit to add to what we've already achieved. I think he has more to offer, today he met trouble in running, but the circumstances would have to be right before I backed him again. It has been suggested to me that a lot of my selections go on to win in the near future if not when I back them. The question was then asked of me "Why don't you follow them in subsequent races?" The simple answer is that I treat each and every race as just that, one race to be analysed. If I felt the shape of any particular race suited a horse I'd put up last time AND I thought it was available at value odds then I'd back it. However, I tend to find more often than not that I am not satisfied that both sets of criteria have been met and if that's the case then I won't play. As anybody following our blog must have realised by now, both Gags and I prefer the selective approach. It works for us and that is the method we will continue to use.
Tomorrow the aw action takes place at Southwell but I can say already that there is nothing I like the look of on that card. Wednesday looks a bit more likely to provide a selection with two cards for me to go at, although I think a lot of people will be pre-occupied with a little nh meeting which starts soon at Liverpool!
Tomorrow the aw action takes place at Southwell but I can say already that there is nothing I like the look of on that card. Wednesday looks a bit more likely to provide a selection with two cards for me to go at, although I think a lot of people will be pre-occupied with a little nh meeting which starts soon at Liverpool!
Blank Monday Over The Sticks
A little disappointing yesterday, but overall no great damage done to the account and it was nice to see that the markets agreed with me about two of the selections, as the prices shortened quite significantly. If you can identify these types of races, and find a solid selection, then you are guaranteed to make money in the long run!
Todays NH card at Newcastle looks extremely trappy and I didn't come close to recommending a bet. One horse which I thought was worthy of a second look was What Happened in the 3.10 race, but I was looking for around 6/1 to get involved with it and it's much shorter than that. I'll leave it at that and just hope that the AW bet comes up trumps again!
Todays NH card at Newcastle looks extremely trappy and I didn't come close to recommending a bet. One horse which I thought was worthy of a second look was What Happened in the 3.10 race, but I was looking for around 6/1 to get involved with it and it's much shorter than that. I'll leave it at that and just hope that the AW bet comes up trumps again!
Monday At Wolverhampton
There's an interesting race at Lingfield today where punters seem to be siding with Murrin, currently around 11/4. It wouldn't be my pick, but since I'm not getting involved in the race at all (only 7 due to go to post) I'll keep my thoughts to myself for a change.
I have had a good look at one race at Wolverhampton, the 9.5 furlong Handicap due to go off at 450pm. I started off thinking I'd side with one of the front two in the market. Between them they've won or finished 2nd in their last 5 races. You have to respect their chances but they're constantly going up the handicap and there comes a point when you have to oppose these types. I wouldn't oppose them just for the sake of it, but I do think I've found one with a realistic chance and at a value price. Taking out the front two in the market, there are still two or three others which look well handicapped although possibly not currently in the best of form. All in all this is quite a tough race and not the sort of contest I usually get involved in. However, my selection comes here in decent enough form and looks on a fair mark. He won his maiden on the track racing off a mark of 66 and last time out put in a c and d performance on the clock at least as good, if not better than anything any of todays rivals have achieved (over c and d). Today he's racing off 65 which hopefully will enable him to at least be in the shake-up. Since it is a tough race with one or two unexposed runners over todays c and d I make the selection at least a 6/1 shot and therefore a bet at the odds avaialble.
450 Wolverhampton - WATSON'S BAY 1 point each way at 12/1 (Stan James BOG, Bet Fred, Blue Square and SkyBet)
Some of you may remember the trainer / jockey partnership combining to provide me with a 20/1 winner back in January. Whilst they may not look to be in great recent form, they still have a 67% strike rate this season at the venue. Hopefully that will be improved upon this afternoon.
I have had a good look at one race at Wolverhampton, the 9.5 furlong Handicap due to go off at 450pm. I started off thinking I'd side with one of the front two in the market. Between them they've won or finished 2nd in their last 5 races. You have to respect their chances but they're constantly going up the handicap and there comes a point when you have to oppose these types. I wouldn't oppose them just for the sake of it, but I do think I've found one with a realistic chance and at a value price. Taking out the front two in the market, there are still two or three others which look well handicapped although possibly not currently in the best of form. All in all this is quite a tough race and not the sort of contest I usually get involved in. However, my selection comes here in decent enough form and looks on a fair mark. He won his maiden on the track racing off a mark of 66 and last time out put in a c and d performance on the clock at least as good, if not better than anything any of todays rivals have achieved (over c and d). Today he's racing off 65 which hopefully will enable him to at least be in the shake-up. Since it is a tough race with one or two unexposed runners over todays c and d I make the selection at least a 6/1 shot and therefore a bet at the odds avaialble.
450 Wolverhampton - WATSON'S BAY 1 point each way at 12/1 (Stan James BOG, Bet Fred, Blue Square and SkyBet)
Some of you may remember the trainer / jockey partnership combining to provide me with a 20/1 winner back in January. Whilst they may not look to be in great recent form, they still have a 67% strike rate this season at the venue. Hopefully that will be improved upon this afternoon.
Sunday, 29 March 2009
Still Making It Pay
Okay, here we go with the summary on what has been another profitable week on here. Last week I put up a weekly and a year to date summary and that's exactly what we're going to do every week from now on. It's a funny old game, this punting lark. The vast majority of our selections do shorten but some of our biggest profits come from drifters. This is true for our services as well as our own selections, with one source today putting up a 23/1 winning double in which both selections incredibly drifted.
MICK'S SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
1 WINNER (50%)
1 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +10.25 POINTS
MICK'S SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
46 BETS
13 WINNERS (28%)
13 PLACED (28%)
PROFIT / LOSS +55.77 POINTS
GAG'S SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
3 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (66%)
PROFIT / LOSS -1.60 POINTS
GAG'S SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
12 BETS
1 WINNER (8%)
8 PLACED (66%)
PROFIT / LOSS +0.04 POINTS
COMBINED SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
1 WINNER (20%)
3 PLACED (60%)
PROFIT / LOSS +8.65 POINTS
COMBINED SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
58 BETS
14 WINNERS (24%)
21 PLACED (36%)
PROFIT / LOSS +55.81 POINTS
Whichever way we look at it we're doing really well. Between us I'd like to think we can achieve something like 200 points profit for the year from average bets of just 2 points and at the moment we're ahead of target to achieve that. Add to that the "income" from our other sources which are not highlighted on here and it really does start to look promising! I'm off to look at tomorrows cards as we have some aw action on offer once again, so every chance of a busy day on Monday. No doubt Gags will be on here later to answer any queries and respond to comments made about his selections today.
MICK'S SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
1 WINNER (50%)
1 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +10.25 POINTS
MICK'S SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
46 BETS
13 WINNERS (28%)
13 PLACED (28%)
PROFIT / LOSS +55.77 POINTS
GAG'S SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
3 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (66%)
PROFIT / LOSS -1.60 POINTS
GAG'S SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
12 BETS
1 WINNER (8%)
8 PLACED (66%)
PROFIT / LOSS +0.04 POINTS
COMBINED SELECTIONS WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
1 WINNER (20%)
3 PLACED (60%)
PROFIT / LOSS +8.65 POINTS
COMBINED SELECTIONS YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
58 BETS
14 WINNERS (24%)
21 PLACED (36%)
PROFIT / LOSS +55.81 POINTS
Whichever way we look at it we're doing really well. Between us I'd like to think we can achieve something like 200 points profit for the year from average bets of just 2 points and at the moment we're ahead of target to achieve that. Add to that the "income" from our other sources which are not highlighted on here and it really does start to look promising! I'm off to look at tomorrows cards as we have some aw action on offer once again, so every chance of a busy day on Monday. No doubt Gags will be on here later to answer any queries and respond to comments made about his selections today.
No All Weather Today
Since there is no aw action today I decided to have a look at the Doncaster card. When I say the card, I really mean one race in particular. The Doncaster Shield over 12 furlongs looks an interesting race and as long as there hasn't been any significant change in the going I would have thought Young Mick (no, not an accurate description of me at all) is the solid one. It's too early for me to get involved with the flat so this is not a selection and I won't be backing the horse myself, but from a form point of view I'd prefer this one over the favourite at the prices.
I'll be back on here later to tidy up our figures for the week and year to date.
I'll be back on here later to tidy up our figures for the week and year to date.
A Day For The Ladies?
Well I have decided to play in 2 races today and they both look to have good shapes to them. The selections are:
3.15 KELSO - I'M DELILAH 1PT EW (3/1 with Bet365,Sportingbet,Skybet)
3.15 KELSO - OVERBRANCH 0.5PT EW (12/1 with Bet365,BlueSquare,Skybet)
5.10 NEWTON ABBOT - SHENANIGAN 1PT EW (4/1 generally available)
The reasons behind the bets quite simply is that I believe both races offer excellent terms for the punter. If we start with the 3.15 race, there is a short priced favourite in the race which has won it's last two races very easily but as a result is now running off a 22lb higher mark. Whether it can cope with the rise remains to be seen but I am always happy to take these types on if I can find something suitable. I'm Delilah appears to be improving for the switch to Ferdy Murphy and has got some decent form in the book on fast ground. She won a fairly uncompetitive Mares race last time but she was value for more than the winning distance and on some of her past form has got to have a chance off what I consider to be a decent handicap mark. I think Starr Flyer has been overrated by its 2nd at Stratford two starts back (those at the front set a suicidal pace and the winner and SF both came from way off the pace) and it then fell last time out. Prosecco has done all its running on softer surfaces and has to be taken on under todays faster conditions, which brings me to my other bet in the race, Overbranch. This horse had some excellent novice hurdle form last season, over various trips and under all ground conditions, and after starting the season over fences (didn't appear to take to them) it has now returned to hurdles. It was 10 lengths behind I'm Delilah two starts back but has got a 5lb pull today, and if we consider that it will have improved for the run (ran promisingly again last time out) then it looks overpriced to me and I'm happy to have a small wager on it.
My other bet is a fairly solid one IMO and involves backing the horse with the form in the book rather than backing potential improvers. This is a policy I like to adopt as the general perception is to go with the improvers and they are continually overbacked. Shenanigan has put up some decent performances in a relatively short career to date, and if you ignore its runs in much better races behind the likes of Diamond Harry and Quevega, then the form reads well in the context of this race. There only appears to be 4 or 5 in with a chance in the race and it has the highest official rating of these. I respect that the Irish raider will almost certainly improve for the better ground but on what its shown to date I can't back it at 13/8, the Alan King trained horse is another who will be better on the faster ground but the form it has shown is nothing special and in my book has a bit to find with the selection. Same applies to Caoba really and all in all I just thought that Shenanigan offered a value bet at the prices. She does have a tendency to come off the bridle mid race but the trip looks well within her compass range and the stable had a good winner on Friday. There is a slight doubt about the faster ground but it has got form on similar and I'm happy to take a chance. Lets hope we get a run for our money!
3.15 KELSO - I'M DELILAH 1PT EW (3/1 with Bet365,Sportingbet,Skybet)
3.15 KELSO - OVERBRANCH 0.5PT EW (12/1 with Bet365,BlueSquare,Skybet)
5.10 NEWTON ABBOT - SHENANIGAN 1PT EW (4/1 generally available)
The reasons behind the bets quite simply is that I believe both races offer excellent terms for the punter. If we start with the 3.15 race, there is a short priced favourite in the race which has won it's last two races very easily but as a result is now running off a 22lb higher mark. Whether it can cope with the rise remains to be seen but I am always happy to take these types on if I can find something suitable. I'm Delilah appears to be improving for the switch to Ferdy Murphy and has got some decent form in the book on fast ground. She won a fairly uncompetitive Mares race last time but she was value for more than the winning distance and on some of her past form has got to have a chance off what I consider to be a decent handicap mark. I think Starr Flyer has been overrated by its 2nd at Stratford two starts back (those at the front set a suicidal pace and the winner and SF both came from way off the pace) and it then fell last time out. Prosecco has done all its running on softer surfaces and has to be taken on under todays faster conditions, which brings me to my other bet in the race, Overbranch. This horse had some excellent novice hurdle form last season, over various trips and under all ground conditions, and after starting the season over fences (didn't appear to take to them) it has now returned to hurdles. It was 10 lengths behind I'm Delilah two starts back but has got a 5lb pull today, and if we consider that it will have improved for the run (ran promisingly again last time out) then it looks overpriced to me and I'm happy to have a small wager on it.
My other bet is a fairly solid one IMO and involves backing the horse with the form in the book rather than backing potential improvers. This is a policy I like to adopt as the general perception is to go with the improvers and they are continually overbacked. Shenanigan has put up some decent performances in a relatively short career to date, and if you ignore its runs in much better races behind the likes of Diamond Harry and Quevega, then the form reads well in the context of this race. There only appears to be 4 or 5 in with a chance in the race and it has the highest official rating of these. I respect that the Irish raider will almost certainly improve for the better ground but on what its shown to date I can't back it at 13/8, the Alan King trained horse is another who will be better on the faster ground but the form it has shown is nothing special and in my book has a bit to find with the selection. Same applies to Caoba really and all in all I just thought that Shenanigan offered a value bet at the prices. She does have a tendency to come off the bridle mid race but the trip looks well within her compass range and the stable had a good winner on Friday. There is a slight doubt about the faster ground but it has got form on similar and I'm happy to take a chance. Lets hope we get a run for our money!
It Looks Like There Could Be Something!
After a very quiet week, and one or two potential bullets dodged, there is a good chance that I will be playing in at least one race today. At this stage there are only a couple of bookmakers who have priced up, so I'm going to wait for a bit before posting any selections on here. There are no issues with non runners and the prices I've seen so far look satisfactory. I'll be back later to confirm it all.
Saturday, 28 March 2009
Limited Opportunities.....
This is starting to sound monotonous but I have been unable to find anything worthy of a bet in the 2 NH cards today and I'm going to just take the day off! I'm a little short on time so I'll keep it brief but the only one I was keen on was Enfant De Lune of Alan Kings in the 2.50 at Lingfield. I think this will run a big race and despite the 7lb concession to the fav, I would have had them priced a little closer. With 3 or 4 others in the race which are possible improvers, and a price of about 3/1, there is little value in getting involved so I'll leave it at that. Hopefully there will be something tomorrow!
The Flat Is Back
The start of the flat season for many punters today but I'm still concentrating on the aw and I'm pretty sure Gags is still sticking with the nh racing.
Last night the one I liked at Wolverhampton duly obliged but I didn't back it or put it up as a selection because it was too short. It's just nice to see the analysis continues to be on the money. Today the bucket and spade brigade are at Kempton where there are one or two decent quality races. Usually when there is decent racing I come up with one or two value selections, but today has been tough. I couldn't pick anything in the first race with any confidence, so I moved on to the Rosebery Stakes. With a short-priced favourite lining up I was keen to find something to go to war with, but I just couldn't nail my colours to any one selection. I actually found it to be a bit of a nightmare and it wouldn't surprise me to see a few come back with hard luck stories after the race. The following race is the Magnolia Stakes where I can't put anything up as a selection which represents any value. Some people have this idea that if you put up a big price selection then it represents value. I don't agree. My way of doing things means I am always putting up the horse I think will win the race. Where I get my edge is by backing my idea of the winner at a bigger price than I think it should be. Anyway, today I find myself looking at races where I can't identify the winner, or I think the most likely winner doesn't represent value from a punting point of view. Either way, it's a no bet day for me.
So despite the return of the flat it's down to the nh experts to decide if I'm playing today.
Last night the one I liked at Wolverhampton duly obliged but I didn't back it or put it up as a selection because it was too short. It's just nice to see the analysis continues to be on the money. Today the bucket and spade brigade are at Kempton where there are one or two decent quality races. Usually when there is decent racing I come up with one or two value selections, but today has been tough. I couldn't pick anything in the first race with any confidence, so I moved on to the Rosebery Stakes. With a short-priced favourite lining up I was keen to find something to go to war with, but I just couldn't nail my colours to any one selection. I actually found it to be a bit of a nightmare and it wouldn't surprise me to see a few come back with hard luck stories after the race. The following race is the Magnolia Stakes where I can't put anything up as a selection which represents any value. Some people have this idea that if you put up a big price selection then it represents value. I don't agree. My way of doing things means I am always putting up the horse I think will win the race. Where I get my edge is by backing my idea of the winner at a bigger price than I think it should be. Anyway, today I find myself looking at races where I can't identify the winner, or I think the most likely winner doesn't represent value from a punting point of view. Either way, it's a no bet day for me.
So despite the return of the flat it's down to the nh experts to decide if I'm playing today.
Friday, 27 March 2009
Tonight At Wolverhampton
A couple of weeks ago I picked out Star Choice to win at 11/2 on a Friday evening card at Wolverhampton. The only other bet that day, Smokey Rye, didn't win for me but has gone on to win since, so I think it's fair to say I've been spot on with the analysis. This week may have been very quiet but I prefer that to betting every day, especially if the high strike rate of placed and winning selections can be maintained.
There won't be much studying and analysis being done tonight. Gags is already out and I'm off out soon to have a few cold ones myself.
I like one tonight at Wolverhampton but I'm not going to get the price I want so I'm going to leave it alone. There's no point going through my thoughts, views and analysis on here when I'm not betting, so I won't.
We'll both be back on here tomorrow morning with our selections, if there are any, for Saturdays racing.
There won't be much studying and analysis being done tonight. Gags is already out and I'm off out soon to have a few cold ones myself.
I like one tonight at Wolverhampton but I'm not going to get the price I want so I'm going to leave it alone. There's no point going through my thoughts, views and analysis on here when I'm not betting, so I won't.
We'll both be back on here tomorrow morning with our selections, if there are any, for Saturdays racing.
It Pays To Wait!!!!
I mentioned earlier that I was keen on one or two this afternoon but there were concerns regarding both the price and the possibility of a non runner....Well I'm afraid to say that there has been a withdrawal in the race and consequently the terms are now most unfavourable and I have to just let the horse run. The horse I was keen on last night was FONT in the 3.55 Fontwell and I made this a 3/1 chance in my book. It was available at 9/2 in places this morning and I would have been prepared to put this up as an ew bet if I could have achieved a minimum of 4/1. There were the dead eight runners declared and I noticed that Swordsman had another option of running in the 5.15 Ascot, so there was no way I could have got involved earlier on. Swordsman has since been taken out (it was well backed this morning for the Fontwell race)and on top of that FONT was supported all morning and is now generally an 11/4 shot, so makes no appeal at the price. Obviously the price and the NR make absolutely no difference to the way FONT will run today, but this game is all about finding the right opportunities and I'm not remotely interested in getting involved now.
The other runner I was keen on last night was French Saulaie in the 2.55 Ascot and I thought this would be nearer a 6/4 chance. There are a few reasons why I can't get involved with this today despite it being available at 5/2 in a few places, and these are enough to put me off. If I'm backing horses win only and at these types of prices I want everything in my favour and unfortunately whilst I think it has easily the best form in the book and receives weight from most of its rivals (the yard is also bang in form), its been a beaten favourite 4 times now in 7 attempts over fences and doesn't appear to be the most natural fencer either. This could well win very easily but I'm happy to watch and learn for the future, although I may try and trade a few quid on it on Betfair, as I think it may trade shorter IR.
Good luck if you're playing today!
The other runner I was keen on last night was French Saulaie in the 2.55 Ascot and I thought this would be nearer a 6/4 chance. There are a few reasons why I can't get involved with this today despite it being available at 5/2 in a few places, and these are enough to put me off. If I'm backing horses win only and at these types of prices I want everything in my favour and unfortunately whilst I think it has easily the best form in the book and receives weight from most of its rivals (the yard is also bang in form), its been a beaten favourite 4 times now in 7 attempts over fences and doesn't appear to be the most natural fencer either. This could well win very easily but I'm happy to watch and learn for the future, although I may try and trade a few quid on it on Betfair, as I think it may trade shorter IR.
Good luck if you're playing today!
One Selection And A Few Phrases
"Never be afraid of one horse", "No such thing as a certainty" and "Be prepared to forgive a bad run" are all suggestions I try and remember when carrying out my analysis and deciding whether or not to back a horse.
I have one selection to pass on this morning and you could say all three of those sentiments apply. I am playing in the 420, a Handicap over 1 mile. The race is made up of mainly exposed types with just a few exceptions. I have no idea about the Mark Johnston trained horse, it could win on the bridle, it might finish tailed off. Other than that one, I believe my selection has pretty much the rest of this field covered on what it achieved two runs ago, when winning over c and d. I believe a reproduction of that form will see him go very close in todays race and we have the added bonus that he may actually improve. Most of todays rivals are exposed and I'd be disappointed if
420 Southwell ALMAHAZA 1 point each way at 9/1 (Paddy Power BOG)
doesn't at least make the frame. You can forget the last run, on a different surface and over a different trip, at Lingfield. Back at this venue, over this trip, against mostly exposed rivals I make the selection a 5/1 shot, so at 9/1 we have the value.
I may have something for later this evening at Wolverhampton. If that is the case then I will post by about 6pm.
I have one selection to pass on this morning and you could say all three of those sentiments apply. I am playing in the 420, a Handicap over 1 mile. The race is made up of mainly exposed types with just a few exceptions. I have no idea about the Mark Johnston trained horse, it could win on the bridle, it might finish tailed off. Other than that one, I believe my selection has pretty much the rest of this field covered on what it achieved two runs ago, when winning over c and d. I believe a reproduction of that form will see him go very close in todays race and we have the added bonus that he may actually improve. Most of todays rivals are exposed and I'd be disappointed if
420 Southwell ALMAHAZA 1 point each way at 9/1 (Paddy Power BOG)
doesn't at least make the frame. You can forget the last run, on a different surface and over a different trip, at Lingfield. Back at this venue, over this trip, against mostly exposed rivals I make the selection a 5/1 shot, so at 9/1 we have the value.
I may have something for later this evening at Wolverhampton. If that is the case then I will post by about 6pm.
A Few To Ponder........
Todays racing sees one or two interesting opportunities, however at this stage there are several factors which need to be monitored, none less so than the number of runners in some of the races. As you will probably have gathered by now, I look for races where the terms are favourable to me and whilst there are a couple of horses I'm interested in, the withdrawal of any runners would take this edge away. I will be keeping an eye on both the runners and prices as the morning goes on and will be back to post up my thoughts later on.....Lets hope things go to plan!!!
Thursday, 26 March 2009
Trading Places
We have introduced a new section to the blog which will highlight selections that we feel are likely to shorten significantly prior to the off. These will not have any bearing on the account bets but should offer decent opportunities to generate 'risk free' bets if you have access to the exchanges. Over the last few months it is uncanny how many of the horses we have selected have shortened significantly and, whilst they have not all managed to win, there is no reason why good money couldn't have been made from trading them. Over time this is an area which we feel could be exploited much further and we will be posting up some methods/ideas on this in due course. As ever the account bets will continue to be posted in the normal manner and these will hopefully continue to prove highly profitable. If anybody has any questions about this please feel free to get in touch.
An Opportunity?
I had planned to have at least one selection this evening at Wolverhampton. As usual I have put in the hours of study and analysis. No doubt some will think I spend far too long working through races, but the approach works for me and I think the only likely outcome of cutting corners is a kick in the teeth from the gambling gods and I don't like the sound of that!
I have looked at two races in particular and I came up with what what I thought was really solid looking each way bet in the first race on the card, the 9.5 furlong Handicap. I made my "selection" a 4/1 shot, therefore I'd need at least 5/1 if I'm going to place a bet. Looking at the RP forecast of 11/2 I didn't anticipate a problem, until I looked at oddschecker to find the horse priced up at 15/8!!! At that price I'm obviously not going to be tempted. Out of curiousity I looked through the betting patterns for the day to see it was only ever a best-priced 7/2, so at no stage would I have got involved with the horse. This goes down as one I'm happy to let run. If it wins, then so be it. If it gets beat, then we've dodged a bullet. Either way, I believe I've done the right thing. Only through putting in the time and effort can I come up with my own prices for horses I fancy. That then enables me to calculate the value price I need in order to have a bet and as we all know, value is the key to success. By not playing when there is no value I will avoid losers. In the same way, by playing when there is excellent value I will maximise profits, especially by also taking advantage of concessions like best odds guaranteed.
So another blank day as far as we are concerned on the blog. I'm pleased to report that one of our experts has come up with a couple of winners in the last two days to ensure the profit figure continues to grow, but overall it has been a quiet week. We are happy enough to wait for the right opportunities, we believe we're far better off sitting out than hammering away for the sake of it as some seem to. Good luck to them but that's not our style. Some interesting cards, aw and nh, tomorrow so once again we'll wait and see what the future brings.
I have looked at two races in particular and I came up with what what I thought was really solid looking each way bet in the first race on the card, the 9.5 furlong Handicap. I made my "selection" a 4/1 shot, therefore I'd need at least 5/1 if I'm going to place a bet. Looking at the RP forecast of 11/2 I didn't anticipate a problem, until I looked at oddschecker to find the horse priced up at 15/8!!! At that price I'm obviously not going to be tempted. Out of curiousity I looked through the betting patterns for the day to see it was only ever a best-priced 7/2, so at no stage would I have got involved with the horse. This goes down as one I'm happy to let run. If it wins, then so be it. If it gets beat, then we've dodged a bullet. Either way, I believe I've done the right thing. Only through putting in the time and effort can I come up with my own prices for horses I fancy. That then enables me to calculate the value price I need in order to have a bet and as we all know, value is the key to success. By not playing when there is no value I will avoid losers. In the same way, by playing when there is excellent value I will maximise profits, especially by also taking advantage of concessions like best odds guaranteed.
So another blank day as far as we are concerned on the blog. I'm pleased to report that one of our experts has come up with a couple of winners in the last two days to ensure the profit figure continues to grow, but overall it has been a quiet week. We are happy enough to wait for the right opportunities, we believe we're far better off sitting out than hammering away for the sake of it as some seem to. Good luck to them but that's not our style. Some interesting cards, aw and nh, tomorrow so once again we'll wait and see what the future brings.
Wednesday, 25 March 2009
On Thursday
(M) The aw action switches to Southwell during the afternoon but I don't like anything on the card. In the evening racing takes place at Wolverhampton. There is a possibility of at least one selection, but obviously I am not going to post anything on here now. If I am betting at Wolverhampton I'll post by about 6pm tomorrow evening.
(G) Despite there being 3 NH cards today, I have been unable to identify anything which I believe represents a decent betting opportunity. I wasn't keen on the cards at Hereford and Towcester to be honest and concentrated on the Carlisle all chase card. I was keen to get involved in the 4.10 race as I wanted to take the front two in the betting on when I looked at Paddy Powers prices last night, however finding something solid enough to put up as an alternative wasn't entirely straight forward! I thought Pass the Class was of some interest, but it clearly has some problems in the jumping department and this puts me off a little. I have also noted that last nights second favourite (Open De L'Isle) has drifted all morning and this has reduced the 'edge' on the rest of the field. All in all I'm happy to let the race pass and whilst it's frustrating that I cannot find a selection, I'm not going to start forcing the issue when the opportunities aren't there. I have a very selective criteria and will only put these up when I feel that these have been met. Good luck if you're playing on your own accounts today!
(G) Despite there being 3 NH cards today, I have been unable to identify anything which I believe represents a decent betting opportunity. I wasn't keen on the cards at Hereford and Towcester to be honest and concentrated on the Carlisle all chase card. I was keen to get involved in the 4.10 race as I wanted to take the front two in the betting on when I looked at Paddy Powers prices last night, however finding something solid enough to put up as an alternative wasn't entirely straight forward! I thought Pass the Class was of some interest, but it clearly has some problems in the jumping department and this puts me off a little. I have also noted that last nights second favourite (Open De L'Isle) has drifted all morning and this has reduced the 'edge' on the rest of the field. All in all I'm happy to let the race pass and whilst it's frustrating that I cannot find a selection, I'm not going to start forcing the issue when the opportunities aren't there. I have a very selective criteria and will only put these up when I feel that these have been met. Good luck if you're playing on your own accounts today!
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
The Calm Returns
(M) Wednesday will be a "no bet day" as far as the aw is concerned. The closest I came to considering a selection was in the 8 furlong Handicap at Kempton, but I'd be leaving a little too much to guess work even for a minimum stake bet. On Thursday we again have two aw cards so hopefully they'll throw up something. If not, then perhaps Gags can find some value elsewhere. Having said that, I wouldn't hold your breath, he's even more selective than me!
(G) Having looked at tomorrows NH cards, they make little appeal to me from a betting point of view. Tauntons card offers small fields or maidens and the card at Towcester appears to be very trappy big field handicaps, which are not my cup of tea. All in all a day to watch and learn from and hopefully something more inspiring will arise on Thursday!
(G) Having looked at tomorrows NH cards, they make little appeal to me from a betting point of view. Tauntons card offers small fields or maidens and the card at Towcester appears to be very trappy big field handicaps, which are not my cup of tea. All in all a day to watch and learn from and hopefully something more inspiring will arise on Thursday!
Changes For The Better
Today was a bit of a learning curve for me. I think I've sussed that it's not easy trying to respond to emails and messages while out on the road. Hopefully today won't be repeated too much in future.
In a number of my previous posts I have highlighted the fact that I work with other people and that we each have our own areas of expertise. Some of the experts run services and I pay them for their advice, which is fair enough. However, there is one guy who does not charge me a penny. We actually work together and have formed a partnership of sorts over the last few weeks. We think along the same lines with regards to analysis and we both prefer the selective approach to betting. Recently Gareth has started providing me with his nh selections and in return I provide him with my thoughts and selections on the aw racing. I see this as being a mutually beneficial relationship and I am also pleased to say that he has agreed to post his analysis and selections on this blog from now on. The eagle-eyed amongst you may have spotted his selections so far this year on the right hand side of the blog, beneath mine of course (for now)! Whilst the current profit figure for his selections may not seem anything out of the ordinary I would say two things. Firstly, it is very early days and secondly, if one selection had not fallen at the last he would probably be 10+ points up already. As we all know luck will even out over the long term and I have no doubt his selections will show a decent profit by the time the year is up. I'm sure I'm not alone in being impressed by the number of his selections which have run great races. In getting some sort of return on the vast majority of his selections he has my seal of approval anyway. Apart from posting his selections and analysis on here, Gareth will also help out by posting my selections when I am unable to do so. He actually put the post up earlier today so we know that will work fine in future.
Looking back at today I think we were almost spot on again. We opposed an odds-on favourite (which finished nowhere) and preferred two others in the race. They eventually finished first and second. I know I put the second up as a selection on my account and it effectively lost, but I also know that if I can keep finding races like this with short-priced favourites I don't like, then the long-term will be very, very profitable. Incidentally, we weren't the only people to come to the same conclusion as whilst we backed the selection this morning at 8/1 it actually went off at an incredible 3/1 sp. (And that was just a minimum stake selection!!)
So, looking forward I think things look pretty good. My aim is still to achieve in excess of 100 points profit with my selections and I'm on target to do that. I'll let Gareth post and explain what he is hoping to achieve and how he intends to do it in his own time. No doubt some of you will have questions you want to ask him and I'm sure he's looking forward to answering them. If some of you want to just keep following my selections, then you can. If others want to follow both of our selections (and that's what we do) then feel free, welcome aboard, enjoy the ride!
I'm off to have a look at the aw cards for tomorrow.
In a number of my previous posts I have highlighted the fact that I work with other people and that we each have our own areas of expertise. Some of the experts run services and I pay them for their advice, which is fair enough. However, there is one guy who does not charge me a penny. We actually work together and have formed a partnership of sorts over the last few weeks. We think along the same lines with regards to analysis and we both prefer the selective approach to betting. Recently Gareth has started providing me with his nh selections and in return I provide him with my thoughts and selections on the aw racing. I see this as being a mutually beneficial relationship and I am also pleased to say that he has agreed to post his analysis and selections on this blog from now on. The eagle-eyed amongst you may have spotted his selections so far this year on the right hand side of the blog, beneath mine of course (for now)! Whilst the current profit figure for his selections may not seem anything out of the ordinary I would say two things. Firstly, it is very early days and secondly, if one selection had not fallen at the last he would probably be 10+ points up already. As we all know luck will even out over the long term and I have no doubt his selections will show a decent profit by the time the year is up. I'm sure I'm not alone in being impressed by the number of his selections which have run great races. In getting some sort of return on the vast majority of his selections he has my seal of approval anyway. Apart from posting his selections and analysis on here, Gareth will also help out by posting my selections when I am unable to do so. He actually put the post up earlier today so we know that will work fine in future.
Looking back at today I think we were almost spot on again. We opposed an odds-on favourite (which finished nowhere) and preferred two others in the race. They eventually finished first and second. I know I put the second up as a selection on my account and it effectively lost, but I also know that if I can keep finding races like this with short-priced favourites I don't like, then the long-term will be very, very profitable. Incidentally, we weren't the only people to come to the same conclusion as whilst we backed the selection this morning at 8/1 it actually went off at an incredible 3/1 sp. (And that was just a minimum stake selection!!)
So, looking forward I think things look pretty good. My aim is still to achieve in excess of 100 points profit with my selections and I'm on target to do that. I'll let Gareth post and explain what he is hoping to achieve and how he intends to do it in his own time. No doubt some of you will have questions you want to ask him and I'm sure he's looking forward to answering them. If some of you want to just keep following my selections, then you can. If others want to follow both of our selections (and that's what we do) then feel free, welcome aboard, enjoy the ride!
I'm off to have a look at the aw cards for tomorrow.
4.50 Lingfield
The above race is not the typical race I would get involved with but after close consideration I feel that there are enough reasons for getting involved with one for minimum stakes.
The horse in question is:
SRI KUANTAN (7/1 generally, 8/1 with PP has now gone) - 1PT WIN
The reasons behind the bet are that the horse has got an excellent record over C & D, indeed its figures over 10F at Lingfield read 2,1,1,6 with both wins being gained off marks just one pound lower than todays. The horse has been campaigned over different courses and distances (I suspect Southwell is not its track) and the handicap mark has now returned close to a winning one. The connections have also put the tongue tie back on, which was worn on its previous wins and they have secured a good jockey booking in Amy Ryan (strike rate this year is 27%). The favourite has to be respected given the rich vein of form it is in but on a line of form from last year there is very little between this and the selection and at the prices (4/5 & 7/1) it is a no brainer really. The other horse which initially caught my eye was Kings Topic as it may get an easy lead however under todays conditions I believe the selection offers a better value bet. The others make little appeal as they are either weighted up to their best, or out of form and probably not good enough.
This bet is obviously a little speculative, hence the minimum stakes, but I had this in at about 5/1 and at the prices available feel that there is sufficient value to get involved with it.
The horse in question is:
SRI KUANTAN (7/1 generally, 8/1 with PP has now gone) - 1PT WIN
The reasons behind the bet are that the horse has got an excellent record over C & D, indeed its figures over 10F at Lingfield read 2,1,1,6 with both wins being gained off marks just one pound lower than todays. The horse has been campaigned over different courses and distances (I suspect Southwell is not its track) and the handicap mark has now returned close to a winning one. The connections have also put the tongue tie back on, which was worn on its previous wins and they have secured a good jockey booking in Amy Ryan (strike rate this year is 27%). The favourite has to be respected given the rich vein of form it is in but on a line of form from last year there is very little between this and the selection and at the prices (4/5 & 7/1) it is a no brainer really. The other horse which initially caught my eye was Kings Topic as it may get an easy lead however under todays conditions I believe the selection offers a better value bet. The others make little appeal as they are either weighted up to their best, or out of form and probably not good enough.
This bet is obviously a little speculative, hence the minimum stakes, but I had this in at about 5/1 and at the prices available feel that there is sufficient value to get involved with it.
Monday, 23 March 2009
A Bet At Lingfield On Tuesday
I did not expect to be betting on Tuesday, but I am and hopefully it's the right thing to do.
I looked at the opener on the card, a Seller over 10 furlongs, but that little exercise didn't last very long. I'm sure plenty of people will find a way to play in the 7 furlong handicap, with a few of the runners having raced against each other last time out, but I'm not one of them.
The last race I looked at was, predictably, the finale. A Handicap over 10 furlongs with a short price favourite sounds perfect and I am going to play in this race. Initially I was going to swerve the race but I went back to it and then asked "a trusted source" for his view. He had no idea of my thoughts, yet he came to the same conclusion as me, hence the decision to strike a bet. Unfortunately I won't be around in the morning to monitor prices or post on here, so my "partner in crime" will try and find time to do that for me. I'm not going to start putting selections up on here, in a public place, the night before racing when I don't know for sure if I'm going to get the price. It's just not worth it. If he can't get the post updated for any reason then anyone who wants the details will have to send me an email with their mobile number. I already send out my selections via sms to a few guys, so adding a few more to the list won't make much difference.
I looked at the opener on the card, a Seller over 10 furlongs, but that little exercise didn't last very long. I'm sure plenty of people will find a way to play in the 7 furlong handicap, with a few of the runners having raced against each other last time out, but I'm not one of them.
The last race I looked at was, predictably, the finale. A Handicap over 10 furlongs with a short price favourite sounds perfect and I am going to play in this race. Initially I was going to swerve the race but I went back to it and then asked "a trusted source" for his view. He had no idea of my thoughts, yet he came to the same conclusion as me, hence the decision to strike a bet. Unfortunately I won't be around in the morning to monitor prices or post on here, so my "partner in crime" will try and find time to do that for me. I'm not going to start putting selections up on here, in a public place, the night before racing when I don't know for sure if I'm going to get the price. It's just not worth it. If he can't get the post updated for any reason then anyone who wants the details will have to send me an email with their mobile number. I already send out my selections via sms to a few guys, so adding a few more to the list won't make much difference.
Monday At Wolverhampton
I looked through three of the races on todays card but nothing has tempted me in to having any kind of wager. A quiet start to the week then with no account business. Not only is there nothing strong enough to go up as a selection today, I can't even point you in the direction of a couple to trade. It really is pretty poor stuff. As usual there are a couple of familiar names amongst the runners. I'm sure some of you will have noticed Nawamees, (I backed him three runs ago when he finished 4th, before he went on to win his next two), who runs in the Claimer over 12 furlongs. Later on in the Handicap over 9.5 furlongs Julie Camacho runs Tae Kwon Do. I'm sure most of you will recognise the colours of the owners and it wouldn't surprise me if they have a go today, but for me it all looks far too trappy so I'm more than happy to sit it out and bide my time.
Sunday, 22 March 2009
By Popular Request
I have been asked to provide a weekly and year to date summary to show how things are progressing throughout the year. I have no problem with that, not least of all because things are going so well right now. I don't know how enthusiastic I'd be if I was doing my brains in, but there you go.
Just a quick look back at today before I post up the summaries. I think the analysis was spot on again wasn't it? Nothing on the account but I suggested two possible horses to trade. The first was backed from 28/1 in to 12/1 before the race even started, so a gift of a free bet if ever I've seen one. The horse ran well enough and rewarded each way supporters by finishing second, although the winner was on another planet today and dotted up. My second suggested trade went one better and won at an sp of 8/1, with 10/1 having been available earlier in the day. I thought this was over priced but for me to put something on the account nowadays I like at least two pieces of form to be able to confirm my thoughts. Anyway, for those amongst you who like to trade, hopefully it was another good day courtesy of the aw king!
Lots of aw action coming up, my only problem will be trying to post everything on here pre-race. If I can I will, but if I can't then so be it. The guys I share my analysis with can verify what I say if needs be.
Weekly Summary
4 Bets
1 Winner (25%)
2 Placed (50%)
Profit 14.6 points
Year To Date Summary
44 Bets
12 Winners (27%)
12 Placed (27%)
Profit 45.52 points
Just a quick look back at today before I post up the summaries. I think the analysis was spot on again wasn't it? Nothing on the account but I suggested two possible horses to trade. The first was backed from 28/1 in to 12/1 before the race even started, so a gift of a free bet if ever I've seen one. The horse ran well enough and rewarded each way supporters by finishing second, although the winner was on another planet today and dotted up. My second suggested trade went one better and won at an sp of 8/1, with 10/1 having been available earlier in the day. I thought this was over priced but for me to put something on the account nowadays I like at least two pieces of form to be able to confirm my thoughts. Anyway, for those amongst you who like to trade, hopefully it was another good day courtesy of the aw king!
Lots of aw action coming up, my only problem will be trying to post everything on here pre-race. If I can I will, but if I can't then so be it. The guys I share my analysis with can verify what I say if needs be.
Weekly Summary
4 Bets
1 Winner (25%)
2 Placed (50%)
Profit 14.6 points
Year To Date Summary
44 Bets
12 Winners (27%)
12 Placed (27%)
Profit 45.52 points
This Sunday Is A Day Of Rest
I have nothing I'm prepared to put up as a selection at Southwell. If you want a couple to look at with a view to possibly trading then you could do worse than consider Starcross Maid (a previous selection) in the first and Wabbraan later on the card.
Okay, a brief explanation for my thoughts above.
Starcross Maid was a selection for me last time out and travelled really well and traded pretty short before fading out of contention. Maybe, just maybe the drop back in trip will help and the last run was needed. I don't really know for sure so I cannot put this on the account, but if you want to trade a few quid I'd be surprised if you couldn't get yourself a free bet at the least.
Wabbraan appears later on and has two main rivals, Orkney and General Tufto, to overcome. In some ways this is a similar type of situation to Ergo the other night, in that we've only got one piece of form to work with. If Wabbraan had two similar pieces of form over c and d and there were 8 runners then I would be putting it up as a selection on the account, but he doesn't and there are not! Of the other runners, I would side with Orkney if I had to make a choice.
I think there is aw action for the next 6 days so hopefully I'll find one or two opportunities. Today I will leave to the nh experts.
Okay, a brief explanation for my thoughts above.
Starcross Maid was a selection for me last time out and travelled really well and traded pretty short before fading out of contention. Maybe, just maybe the drop back in trip will help and the last run was needed. I don't really know for sure so I cannot put this on the account, but if you want to trade a few quid I'd be surprised if you couldn't get yourself a free bet at the least.
Wabbraan appears later on and has two main rivals, Orkney and General Tufto, to overcome. In some ways this is a similar type of situation to Ergo the other night, in that we've only got one piece of form to work with. If Wabbraan had two similar pieces of form over c and d and there were 8 runners then I would be putting it up as a selection on the account, but he doesn't and there are not! Of the other runners, I would side with Orkney if I had to make a choice.
I think there is aw action for the next 6 days so hopefully I'll find one or two opportunities. Today I will leave to the nh experts.
Saturday, 21 March 2009
Who Says Drifters Don't Win?
I have said on many occasions that I don't pay too much attention to the market when my selections drift and today is an example of why that is the case. If you go by the market, especially the exchange, then Sgt Schultz had no chance, but my form analysis said different and I was rewarded, yet again, for using best odds guaranteed bookmakers.
My selection in the Winter Derby was completely carved up by "Team Brittain". Whether or not Suits Me would have gone close with a clear run is open to debate and it changes nothing to moan about it, so I won't. All I will say is that my reasoning for backing Suits Me was partly because I thought it would enjoy a trouble-free passage. Not for one minute did I envisage him being trapped on the rail the way he was by Kandidate.
Any disappointment I felt with the way my first selection finished its race was to become a distant memory after Sgt Schultz got up on the line to land the spoils. No doubt some will say I was lucky with this one, but if you remember, it wasn't that long ago I had a 10/1 shot chinned on the line. My view is that you ultimately get what you deserve in the long term. Some you win, some you lose, but my over riding belief in the selective approach remains the same. If you have ability and work hard then you will succeed, it's as simple as that.
As this week draws to a close it's fantastic to report another bumper week. On the aw account the strike rate remains high and the profits achieved so far are exceptional. Overall I've won just short of £3,000 this week and the best part of £11,000 in the last four weeks. Long may it continue but I know we'll have plenty of ups and downs before the year is out.
My selection in the Winter Derby was completely carved up by "Team Brittain". Whether or not Suits Me would have gone close with a clear run is open to debate and it changes nothing to moan about it, so I won't. All I will say is that my reasoning for backing Suits Me was partly because I thought it would enjoy a trouble-free passage. Not for one minute did I envisage him being trapped on the rail the way he was by Kandidate.
Any disappointment I felt with the way my first selection finished its race was to become a distant memory after Sgt Schultz got up on the line to land the spoils. No doubt some will say I was lucky with this one, but if you remember, it wasn't that long ago I had a 10/1 shot chinned on the line. My view is that you ultimately get what you deserve in the long term. Some you win, some you lose, but my over riding belief in the selective approach remains the same. If you have ability and work hard then you will succeed, it's as simple as that.
As this week draws to a close it's fantastic to report another bumper week. On the aw account the strike rate remains high and the profits achieved so far are exceptional. Overall I've won just short of £3,000 this week and the best part of £11,000 in the last four weeks. Long may it continue but I know we'll have plenty of ups and downs before the year is out.
Two By Two
I've been having some problems getting this posted this morning. I'm not sure why, but it's been a pain in the proverbial. I wrote out my thoughts on the two races I'm playing in and then it wouldn't save the bloody post! Hopefully this will work, if not then I'm giving up as I haven't got time to piss about on here all day.
A quick footnote on last night first of all. I had a chat with a friend pre-racing, he is actually one of my nh advisors (his account shows 8 bets so far, 6 placed at around 4/1, one fell at the last when looking like winning, and a winner at 4/1) and he's showing promise to say the least!) My comments on the race were something like this: "I'm not having an account bet mate, because there's only one line of form for each of the ones I like and that's not enough, but I reckon the market is the wrong way around. I reckon Waldorf should be favourite and I have to give Moffatts a chance as well. They seem to be backing two or three in this race that I can't have, they're exposed and I'd be amazed if the jolly, Waldorf or Ergo wasn't better than them." I ended up messing about with a few quid trading and I made about £200 on the the race. Of course this doesn't go on the account, I was only messing about, but imagine how pissed off I was when the 16/1 shot absolutely bolted up. I have to stick to my overall plan, but just every now and then even I think "if only I was a little less regimented".
Moving on to todays action at Lingfiled where I wouldn't be surprised if one or two thought I was playing in a much hotter affair than I usually get involved with, but hopefully the reasons will become clear. My first selection runs in the Winter Derby, where I want to oppose two of the front three in the market. The jolly has to prove he stays in this class of race and at the price I felt duty-bound to look elsewhere. Then you have the Gosden (possibly my favourite flat trainer) horse, one time Derby fancy, but from what I can make out this has already finished behind one of todays rivals over c and d and I see no obvious reason why the form should be reversed. I was left with two that I liked, but a huge difference in price and running styles made the decision easy. Re Barolo has to have a chance, but the odds reflect this and he'll possibly need luck in running. At a much bigger price, I'm backing
305 Lingfield SUITS ME 1 point each way at 10/1 (Bet 365 BOG and 1/4 odds a place)
who has a similar form chance to Re Barolo, but is twice the price and much more likely to get a trouble free journey. Suits Me races prominently so the draw is ideal for him. Looking at their form, the last time they met Re Barolo came out in front when in receipt of 3lb. Previously, off level weight, Suits Me finished in front of Re Barolo in a really decent time when coming second behind Dansant. With reasons to oppose three at the front of the market, Suits Me looks value in what is still a tough race to call. At the price I'll take my chance.
Just over an hour later and once again I'm taking on two at the front of the market. Initially I thought I'd possibly be backing Formation who won for me back in February when putting together an identicle performance to his win the time before. He looks to have a chance in here but there is a question mark about the trip. I'm not saying he won't get it, just that he needs to prove it and that he can be as effective at it as he is at 10 furlongs. Then we look at the jolly. This one has won a Class 3 event at Wolverhampton. For me, this is a better race at a different venue, so up in the handicap I think the fav has to improve again and be as effective around here as he was at Wolverhampton. Again, I'm not saying he can't or won't, just that he has it to do. There are one or two others in here I just don't think are good enough and then we have my selection.
415 Lingfield SGT SCHULTZ 2 points each way at 11/2 (Boyle BOG) or 6/1 (VC)
My selection has a tremendous record around this venue. Back in January his performance in finishing third over 10 furlongs was every bit as good as anything Formation has achieved in his two wins in my opinion. More importantly we can add in the fact that my selection is a proven performer in this grade, at this track and over this trip. Furthermore, if you look through the form book I think you'll find this is his time of year, indeed he won this race last year. All in all, I make him odds on to at least make the frame, so at the prices I have to get involved.
A quick footnote on last night first of all. I had a chat with a friend pre-racing, he is actually one of my nh advisors (his account shows 8 bets so far, 6 placed at around 4/1, one fell at the last when looking like winning, and a winner at 4/1) and he's showing promise to say the least!) My comments on the race were something like this: "I'm not having an account bet mate, because there's only one line of form for each of the ones I like and that's not enough, but I reckon the market is the wrong way around. I reckon Waldorf should be favourite and I have to give Moffatts a chance as well. They seem to be backing two or three in this race that I can't have, they're exposed and I'd be amazed if the jolly, Waldorf or Ergo wasn't better than them." I ended up messing about with a few quid trading and I made about £200 on the the race. Of course this doesn't go on the account, I was only messing about, but imagine how pissed off I was when the 16/1 shot absolutely bolted up. I have to stick to my overall plan, but just every now and then even I think "if only I was a little less regimented".
Moving on to todays action at Lingfiled where I wouldn't be surprised if one or two thought I was playing in a much hotter affair than I usually get involved with, but hopefully the reasons will become clear. My first selection runs in the Winter Derby, where I want to oppose two of the front three in the market. The jolly has to prove he stays in this class of race and at the price I felt duty-bound to look elsewhere. Then you have the Gosden (possibly my favourite flat trainer) horse, one time Derby fancy, but from what I can make out this has already finished behind one of todays rivals over c and d and I see no obvious reason why the form should be reversed. I was left with two that I liked, but a huge difference in price and running styles made the decision easy. Re Barolo has to have a chance, but the odds reflect this and he'll possibly need luck in running. At a much bigger price, I'm backing
305 Lingfield SUITS ME 1 point each way at 10/1 (Bet 365 BOG and 1/4 odds a place)
who has a similar form chance to Re Barolo, but is twice the price and much more likely to get a trouble free journey. Suits Me races prominently so the draw is ideal for him. Looking at their form, the last time they met Re Barolo came out in front when in receipt of 3lb. Previously, off level weight, Suits Me finished in front of Re Barolo in a really decent time when coming second behind Dansant. With reasons to oppose three at the front of the market, Suits Me looks value in what is still a tough race to call. At the price I'll take my chance.
Just over an hour later and once again I'm taking on two at the front of the market. Initially I thought I'd possibly be backing Formation who won for me back in February when putting together an identicle performance to his win the time before. He looks to have a chance in here but there is a question mark about the trip. I'm not saying he won't get it, just that he needs to prove it and that he can be as effective at it as he is at 10 furlongs. Then we look at the jolly. This one has won a Class 3 event at Wolverhampton. For me, this is a better race at a different venue, so up in the handicap I think the fav has to improve again and be as effective around here as he was at Wolverhampton. Again, I'm not saying he can't or won't, just that he has it to do. There are one or two others in here I just don't think are good enough and then we have my selection.
415 Lingfield SGT SCHULTZ 2 points each way at 11/2 (Boyle BOG) or 6/1 (VC)
My selection has a tremendous record around this venue. Back in January his performance in finishing third over 10 furlongs was every bit as good as anything Formation has achieved in his two wins in my opinion. More importantly we can add in the fact that my selection is a proven performer in this grade, at this track and over this trip. Furthermore, if you look through the form book I think you'll find this is his time of year, indeed he won this race last year. All in all, I make him odds on to at least make the frame, so at the prices I have to get involved.
Friday, 20 March 2009
Lingfield And Wolverhampton
Lingfield and Wolverhampton provide the aw action today.
I looked at three races, starting with the 415 at Lingfield. I think the price on the jolly is about right, therefore no value, and I tried to find an alternative. I think one in here may get an uncontested lead but to back the horse in question you'd have to forgive the last two performances. I prefer to leave the race alone. My next port of call was the 650 at Wolverhampton but I just couldn't rule out enough of the runners to give me a decent edge. I ended up with five I thought could win and they're the front five in the market, so again a race to leave alone. The next on the card, the 720, is the the race which I spent most of my time on. Unfortunately I came up with more questions than answers so nothing doing here either.
It can be a tiny bit frustrating to spend time going through races only to come to the conclusion that the best course of action is not to get involved, but I'd rather that than throw money down the drain on horses I've got serious doubts about. As things stand my venture is going okay, I've had something like 42 bets on the sand so far this year, with around 60% of them at least making the frame and enough winning at decent prices to put me nicely in front. If I can maintain something similar throughout the year I'll be more than happy.
There is aw again tomorrow at Lingfield, where the Winter Derby will no doubt take centre stage. Who knows what that might throw up?
I looked at three races, starting with the 415 at Lingfield. I think the price on the jolly is about right, therefore no value, and I tried to find an alternative. I think one in here may get an uncontested lead but to back the horse in question you'd have to forgive the last two performances. I prefer to leave the race alone. My next port of call was the 650 at Wolverhampton but I just couldn't rule out enough of the runners to give me a decent edge. I ended up with five I thought could win and they're the front five in the market, so again a race to leave alone. The next on the card, the 720, is the the race which I spent most of my time on. Unfortunately I came up with more questions than answers so nothing doing here either.
It can be a tiny bit frustrating to spend time going through races only to come to the conclusion that the best course of action is not to get involved, but I'd rather that than throw money down the drain on horses I've got serious doubts about. As things stand my venture is going okay, I've had something like 42 bets on the sand so far this year, with around 60% of them at least making the frame and enough winning at decent prices to put me nicely in front. If I can maintain something similar throughout the year I'll be more than happy.
There is aw again tomorrow at Lingfield, where the Winter Derby will no doubt take centre stage. Who knows what that might throw up?
Thursday, 19 March 2009
Almost But Not Quite
I certainly got a run for my money this evening and I don't think punters can ask much more than that. Both selections eventually finished second, Cross The Line backed from 10/1 in to 6/1, Viva Vettori from 7/2 in to 13/8. For the traders amongst you it must have been a special night with Cross The Line only getting done in a photo and Viva Vettori trading at shorter than 1.5. However, this blog is not about trading, it's about me putting up selections on the aw and trying to make in excess of 100 points throughout the year.
Tonight represents a 1 point loss on the account but that's chicken feed compared with what we nearly won and I will happily strike these kind of bets all season long. We were on a couple of form chances, we got the value, they were backed, they were trying and we only just missed out on a decent payday. I think too much is made of horses reappearing after an absence. Both of tonights selections had gone well fresh in the past and the jockey bookings only added to my confidence that we could expect a big run in both races. That's what we got and I'll take that every time.
I'm off to have a look at tomorrows cards.
Tonight represents a 1 point loss on the account but that's chicken feed compared with what we nearly won and I will happily strike these kind of bets all season long. We were on a couple of form chances, we got the value, they were backed, they were trying and we only just missed out on a decent payday. I think too much is made of horses reappearing after an absence. Both of tonights selections had gone well fresh in the past and the jockey bookings only added to my confidence that we could expect a big run in both races. That's what we got and I'll take that every time.
I'm off to have a look at tomorrows cards.
Two Bets At Kempton
Once again we have two bets in a day following on from a period of inactivity on the aw account.
I started off looking at the 750, where the jolly looked likely to go off at a fairly short price. Last time this horse ran I very nearly backed the third that day, each way at double figure odds. In the end I decided the jolly was the most likely winner so I left the race alone. My thinking in looking at this race today was that the horse may well have won its last three but it has obvioulsy gone up in the weights and there may be some value in opposing it. The problem with trying to oppose one horse is that you need to come up with a viable alternative and I couldn't. I then checked out the betting on the race to see if by some fluke I could get a reasonable price on the fav, only to find it has been withdrawn. So in my opinion you've now got a desperate race where one of them will somehow fall across the line. That might be a bit harsh but for me a race to swerve.
The next on the card is where I've had my first bet. On the clock the jolly must have a chance, but Jake The Snake's last three runs, the reason he's favourite tonight, have been in four and five runner claimers. A little bit different tonight as 11 are set to go to post and one or two have run well in much better races than this. My selection has clocked good times over course and distance on a number of occasions, is back down to a winning mark and has gone well fresh, with an overall course record of 2 wins and 5 places from 11 starts. The last time my selection ran off tonights mark of 70, over c and d, after a few months off, it managed to finish second, only just beaten and has run some good races off higher marks since then. I'll be amazed if my selection isn't at least in the shake up if running to that sort of form tonight. I make this around a 6/1 shot so the fact that it can be backed at 10/1 means I have to bet
820 Kempton CROSS THE LINE 1 point each way at 10/1 (Stan James BOG and SkyBet)
My second bet runs in the next race on the card. With a couple of non-runners the race is now down to just five, but I don't see this inconveniencing my selection. Looking at what each of the runners has actually achieved, I don't understand why my selection isn't favourite. Whilst some may say the fact that my selection hasn't run for 288 days is a problem, I don't think so. The horse has gone well fresh in the past, notably when making all to win a Class 3 Handicap over course and distance last year, with one of todays rivals behind (and now worse off at the weights). Tonights favourite hasn't run for 166 days itself and in my opinion hasn't produced the same level of form either. I expected my selection to be priced up somewhere around 2/1 or possibly 5/2. The Racing Post forecast of 10/1 is laughable as far as I am concerned, although I accept they had to price up 7 runners. As always a bet is dictated by my analysis suggesting the selection is the most likely winner and there being a value price available.
850 Kempton VIVA VETTORI 2 points win at 7/2 (Bet 365 BOG)
It may not have escaped some of you reading this that I've gone for two selections ridden by Richard Hughes. In fact I think these are his only rides for the night. Maybe this is a good sign, who knows?
I started off looking at the 750, where the jolly looked likely to go off at a fairly short price. Last time this horse ran I very nearly backed the third that day, each way at double figure odds. In the end I decided the jolly was the most likely winner so I left the race alone. My thinking in looking at this race today was that the horse may well have won its last three but it has obvioulsy gone up in the weights and there may be some value in opposing it. The problem with trying to oppose one horse is that you need to come up with a viable alternative and I couldn't. I then checked out the betting on the race to see if by some fluke I could get a reasonable price on the fav, only to find it has been withdrawn. So in my opinion you've now got a desperate race where one of them will somehow fall across the line. That might be a bit harsh but for me a race to swerve.
The next on the card is where I've had my first bet. On the clock the jolly must have a chance, but Jake The Snake's last three runs, the reason he's favourite tonight, have been in four and five runner claimers. A little bit different tonight as 11 are set to go to post and one or two have run well in much better races than this. My selection has clocked good times over course and distance on a number of occasions, is back down to a winning mark and has gone well fresh, with an overall course record of 2 wins and 5 places from 11 starts. The last time my selection ran off tonights mark of 70, over c and d, after a few months off, it managed to finish second, only just beaten and has run some good races off higher marks since then. I'll be amazed if my selection isn't at least in the shake up if running to that sort of form tonight. I make this around a 6/1 shot so the fact that it can be backed at 10/1 means I have to bet
820 Kempton CROSS THE LINE 1 point each way at 10/1 (Stan James BOG and SkyBet)
My second bet runs in the next race on the card. With a couple of non-runners the race is now down to just five, but I don't see this inconveniencing my selection. Looking at what each of the runners has actually achieved, I don't understand why my selection isn't favourite. Whilst some may say the fact that my selection hasn't run for 288 days is a problem, I don't think so. The horse has gone well fresh in the past, notably when making all to win a Class 3 Handicap over course and distance last year, with one of todays rivals behind (and now worse off at the weights). Tonights favourite hasn't run for 166 days itself and in my opinion hasn't produced the same level of form either. I expected my selection to be priced up somewhere around 2/1 or possibly 5/2. The Racing Post forecast of 10/1 is laughable as far as I am concerned, although I accept they had to price up 7 runners. As always a bet is dictated by my analysis suggesting the selection is the most likely winner and there being a value price available.
850 Kempton VIVA VETTORI 2 points win at 7/2 (Bet 365 BOG)
It may not have escaped some of you reading this that I've gone for two selections ridden by Richard Hughes. In fact I think these are his only rides for the night. Maybe this is a good sign, who knows?
Again There Are Two All Weather Cards
Action at Southwell today but once again I haven't found anything strong enough to warrant a bet.
Looking back, the race I spent most time on yesterday was turned in to a one-horse show with Trifti winning easily. This was suggested to me pre-race by one or two different sources, but whilst I thought the horse had a chance I couldn't put it up as a selection. I know some will no doubt say "you've missed a winner", but I have to stick with the way I do things or I'll end up with selections all over the place and that's not how I work. I could not have envisaged any of the runners winning this race so easily. In fact, if you take out the winner and look at how the rest finished, well you could throw a blanket over them. That's pretty much how I read the race and when my analysis tells me that I will always watch rather than play.
I have already had a brief look at the Kempton card for this evening and I will be having a more in depth look later on. Anything I back will be posted on here later.
Looking back, the race I spent most time on yesterday was turned in to a one-horse show with Trifti winning easily. This was suggested to me pre-race by one or two different sources, but whilst I thought the horse had a chance I couldn't put it up as a selection. I know some will no doubt say "you've missed a winner", but I have to stick with the way I do things or I'll end up with selections all over the place and that's not how I work. I could not have envisaged any of the runners winning this race so easily. In fact, if you take out the winner and look at how the rest finished, well you could throw a blanket over them. That's pretty much how I read the race and when my analysis tells me that I will always watch rather than play.
I have already had a brief look at the Kempton card for this evening and I will be having a more in depth look later on. Anything I back will be posted on here later.
Wednesday, 18 March 2009
No Bet Today
Looking through the form, I found Kempton as tough as Lingfield so quite an easy decision to say "no bet today". There's plenty of aw action over the next few days so I'm quite happy to bide my time. There's never any need to force a bet and especially not when you're a fair way in front!
Tuesday, 17 March 2009
Wednesday At Lingfield
I have had a look at three races on the Lingfield aw card for Wednesday. I decided to pass on the first two before spending a fair bit of time on the 520, a Class 5 handicap over 10 furlongs. Despite putting in the hours on the race I came to the conclusion that I could only actually dismiss two of the runners, so absolutely no chance of a bet in those circumstances.
I'm off to Devon at 6 in the morning but I'm hoping to be back in time to be able to have a look at the Kempton evening card. At first glance it looks tricky with a Conditions race for 3 year olds full of improvers and a 6 runner Listed event following that. Then there's a 12 furlong handicap but with only 7 set to go to post it looks unlikely that I'll get involved, but I'll put in the study tomorrow and see what that throws up.
Tuesday was a complete blank for me with no aw action and nothing suggested by my nh advisors.
I'm off to Devon at 6 in the morning but I'm hoping to be back in time to be able to have a look at the Kempton evening card. At first glance it looks tricky with a Conditions race for 3 year olds full of improvers and a 6 runner Listed event following that. Then there's a 12 furlong handicap but with only 7 set to go to post it looks unlikely that I'll get involved, but I'll put in the study tomorrow and see what that throws up.
Tuesday was a complete blank for me with no aw action and nothing suggested by my nh advisors.
Monday, 16 March 2009
By Design
Tuesday will be a blank day on my aw account. There is nothing I am prepared to back on the fibresand at Southwell so a quiet start to the week continues.
Monday ended on a real high for me personally as one of my nh advisors produced a cracking winner, another 18 points added to the overall account.
Monday ended on a real high for me personally as one of my nh advisors produced a cracking winner, another 18 points added to the overall account.
I Was Right
As feared last night there was a non-runner in my race at Kempton, in the shape of Alpes Maritimes. Not happy with one missing, unfortunately my selection then couldn't be pursuaded to enter the stalls so we ended up with two out and we'll never know whether or not we'd have collected today. Significantly though, even with two missing from the field the jolly finished nowhere. Proof if it were needed that I was right in identifying this as a race to play in. As far as I am concerned whenever you can take the 2/1 favourite out of the race then you have a massive edge to play with. The value you obtain in these circumstances is immense and over the long term you cannot fail to make money providing you have the ability to stumble across the value alternative. Whilst I've not made any money today on the aw I believe this race has proved my point in another way as well. How about the value I got when backing Stand Guard last time when it won for me at a much bigger price! The time of the race today was nothing special, something like 2 min 7 secs, and I know Mafeking is capable of making the running and producing a much quicker time than that. Hopefully today has not spoiled our fun with this horse. We know it is entered at Lingfield in a few days time, but we now have to start again from scratch by going through the form of every other horse in the race before deciding what price is value, if indeed the horse is my most likely winner.
In the end a blank day on the aw account but I think the methods and processes I use to help me decide when to get involved have been vindicated handsomely.
In the end a blank day on the aw account but I think the methods and processes I use to help me decide when to get involved have been vindicated handsomely.
Last Time Out
I backed Stand Guard when it won at Wolverhampton and almost expected to be backing the horse again today in the first at Kempton. The race has the right look to it for someone like me, with their being reasons to take on a relatively short priced favourite in Lake Poet. Now there is no disputing the fact that the jolly could well win, but where is the value in backing it at around the 5/2 mark? I have to look elsewhere and Stand Guard was my starting point. However, the more I looked at the race the more I convinced myself that I had to back another one in the race. My selection is today running off a winning mark, has run 20 times on the all weather, finishing in the first three 12 times. The record in class 4 events (or better) over 10 furlongs reads, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 12th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, 5th and 4th. During the last 6 runs mentioned in that sequence the 2nd placing came when running in a class 2 event over todays c and d. The time the race was run in was really good and my selection split a pair of high 90's rated horses. That suggests to me that my selection is as effective here as any of todays rivals, none of whom have achieved that quick a time over c and d. Last year my selection ran over 12 furlongs once before winning next time out when running back over 10 furlongs. Guess what? Last time out my selection ran over 12 furlongs. Now I'm hoping that was just to blow away the cobwebs and that they're going to have a go today because I think if
230 Kempton Mafeking 1 point each way at 14/1 (Ladbrokes), 12/1 (Boyle BOG)
runs up to somewhere near his best then he's way over priced at the odds available. The selection is entered in a few days time at Lingfield in a similar event over 10 furlongs. Let's hope the idea is to go there with a penalty and try to follow up a victory today rather than use today as another stepping stone towards that race. We'll know soon enough.
230 Kempton Mafeking 1 point each way at 14/1 (Ladbrokes), 12/1 (Boyle BOG)
runs up to somewhere near his best then he's way over priced at the odds available. The selection is entered in a few days time at Lingfield in a similar event over 10 furlongs. Let's hope the idea is to go there with a penalty and try to follow up a victory today rather than use today as another stepping stone towards that race. We'll know soon enough.
Sunday, 15 March 2009
Back To Life, Back To Reality
Whilst there was no aw action today I did have a couple of selections put up by my nh experts. Unfortunately the net result is my first losing day for what seems like ages. I can't and won't complain, the few points lost today are a drop in the ocean compared with the gains made over the last few weeks.
Tomorrow sees the resumption of aw action at Kempton. There are three races which could interest me, but they all have 8 runners declared! Anyone want to lay me a price I find a selection in one of the races and then there is a non runner, messing up the each way terms? You never know, I might find one I like enough to go maximum win bet on. Then again I might not like anything at all! The glorious uncertainty that is horse racing.
Tomorrow sees the resumption of aw action at Kempton. There are three races which could interest me, but they all have 8 runners declared! Anyone want to lay me a price I find a selection in one of the races and then there is a non runner, messing up the each way terms? You never know, I might find one I like enough to go maximum win bet on. Then again I might not like anything at all! The glorious uncertainty that is horse racing.
Confidence Is The Key
In my opinion confidence is the key to successful betting. If you have total confidence in the source of the selection, as I have in my advisors on nh and turf flat and indeed in myself when it comes to aw, then you will stake properly and consistently. It is much easier to stick to a plan if you believe things will work out long term. Different people have different ways of protecting themselves from the losing runs which inevitably come along. Some will trade every selection, I prefer each way betting. I know the results on the right are an extremely small sample of my bets but I think they're a fair indication of what's likely to happen over the long term. I think you'll find that by being selective and by betting each way on occasion I have kept the longest run without a return down to six bets. I think that has happened just once so far and it was almost immediately followed by a run of five bets which produced a return. I understand some will say that there hasn't really been any pressure on me yet because things have gone well, but that's not absolutely correct. Only three weeks ago I was almost 40 points down on the year overall, but it really didn't bother me because of the trust and faith I have in the selective approach we use and the disciplined way we stick to our plan. Someone suggested to me that Friday was a big day for me because I had two bets on the sand, but it wasn't a big deal at all as far as I was concerned. Each individual bet is almost irrelevant in the overall scheme of things, regardless of the result, because I just see it as a stepping stone to where I want to end up. I know I'll back more losers than winners, I know I'll have good runs and bad runs, but I am absolutely convinced that by being selective and disciplined I will achieve my ultimate target. As a result of this overall confidence in the plan and belief in the selection process, I do not feel under any real pressure when things aren't going so well. I just see the tough times as an inconvenience which have to be endured so we remember how to appreciate the good times when they come along. Where my view would be different is if we were to play in a lot more races. Then I can imagine the pressure increasing simply because the more bets you have, the more losers you'll back and inevitably the more you'll suffer from long losing runs. I know one very good judge of the form book who prefers this approach and no doubt he has absolute belief in his methods and where they'll take him, but losing runs of 30 and 20 with a few winners in between over a two month period are definitely not for me. In no way is this a criticism of him or his approach, I'm sure he'll end up making money long term just the same as I will. It just shows there are different ways to approach the game and different ways to achieve a positive result. I've been keeping tabs on JP's blog during the Festival and I know I could never have as many bets as he's had in such a short period, but that's his way of playing the game and in the long term it suits him and makes him money.
Whichever approach you take, being selective, betting often or trading, I wish you all the best. I've got the rest of the day off now with no aw action taking place but one of my nh experts has been on with a selection so it's not going to be a blank day on the overall account after all!
Whichever approach you take, being selective, betting often or trading, I wish you all the best. I've got the rest of the day off now with no aw action taking place but one of my nh experts has been on with a selection so it's not going to be a blank day on the overall account after all!
Saturday, 14 March 2009
A Crazy World
My all weather selection today failed to add to my profits but once again one of the nh experts came up with the goods. Nothing as dramatic as the rest of the week but another 7 points have been added to my overall figure. As anybody reading this will have gathered by now I'm really happy with the way things are going at the moment and as the title suggests it's a crazy world, mainly because despite another profitable day it almost feels like a bit of a non-event. No doubt in a few days time I'll look back and be more than grateful for any profit, let alone 7 points in a day. We all know how the tide can turn.
One more day off work and then it's back to the routine I'd almost forgotten about. It really is a day off as well, with no all weather action for me to get stuck into, so unless the nh boys come up with something it could be my first blank punting day in quite some time.
One more day off work and then it's back to the routine I'd almost forgotten about. It really is a day off as well, with no all weather action for me to get stuck into, so unless the nh boys come up with something it could be my first blank punting day in quite some time.
Lingfield
One bet on my aw account today. I've looked through all of the card, although first time around I missed the last race!
My selection today boasts a good record here, has a 50% strike rate at the venue, has won 3 from 4 in March and todays jockey has 2 wins and a place from 3 rides. Add in that the horse is running off a winning mark, comes here off the back of a victory last time out, can cope with a slow run race but also boasts the fastest time of any of these over c and d and you'll see (hopefully) why I make this a 5/1 shot. The fact that we can get the price we can dictates that we have to have a bet. One word of caution though, I'm going to keep stakes sensible because this is a tricky race. The fact that the bookies have us at odds against making the frame tells you what they think.
405 Lingfield LOPINOT 1 point each way at 15/2 (Sportingbet)
I appreciate this is not a bog bookie but they are out of line with the price so I'll take the chance that the selection goes off no bigger than this. Let's hope I've got this right and they've got it wrong. Either way it's been a great week and nothing can change that.
My selection today boasts a good record here, has a 50% strike rate at the venue, has won 3 from 4 in March and todays jockey has 2 wins and a place from 3 rides. Add in that the horse is running off a winning mark, comes here off the back of a victory last time out, can cope with a slow run race but also boasts the fastest time of any of these over c and d and you'll see (hopefully) why I make this a 5/1 shot. The fact that we can get the price we can dictates that we have to have a bet. One word of caution though, I'm going to keep stakes sensible because this is a tricky race. The fact that the bookies have us at odds against making the frame tells you what they think.
405 Lingfield LOPINOT 1 point each way at 15/2 (Sportingbet)
I appreciate this is not a bog bookie but they are out of line with the price so I'll take the chance that the selection goes off no bigger than this. Let's hope I've got this right and they've got it wrong. Either way it's been a great week and nothing can change that.
Top Racing, Top Tipping And Top Profits
I think the headline sums up the week. It's been one of the best I can remember and I am convinced that the reason for that is simple - being selective.
I know lots of punters like to bet like lunatics, on almost every race, when meetings like the Cheltenham Festival come around, but my nh experts maintained their normal selective approach. I am delighted to say that their performance was mirrored by me on the all weather in respect of both being selective and profitable. So far this week I've had four bets and we've managed to find two winners. It doesn't get much better than that, with the winners paid out at 7/1 and 11/2.
Three weeks ago I was something like 40 points down on the year even though we'd kept things simple and worked to the same selective plan. I think we'd been a bit unlucky with one of my nh advisors in particular putting up selections which fell when looking sure to be in the shake up. Not to worry, you have to take these things on the chin and believe in what you're doing, trust your sources and stick to the plan. I did that and I'm now 133 points in front, having won 173 points during that three week period.
The last week alone has generated a profit on my account of 85 points. If ever there was a vindication for remaining selective, even when tempted with meetings like the Festival, then these profits are it. Nobody will ever convince me that having loads of bets, even during meetings like Cheltenham, is the right approach. I go back to my core belief which is that as punters the biggest single advantage we have over the bookmakers is that we can choose when to play and when to sit out and watch. Chucking bets around like confetti throws away our advantage in my opinion. I know some punters think they have to bet because it's the Festival and they're getting good prices on their selections, but the fact is that every horse is trying and some of the races are extremely tough.
I know this upturn in profits will not be maintained at the rate which has been achieved this week, but I do believe that I'm on the road to where I want to be at the end of the year. I'm off to check out todays card at Lingfield. Any selections will be posted by around 12 noon.
I know lots of punters like to bet like lunatics, on almost every race, when meetings like the Cheltenham Festival come around, but my nh experts maintained their normal selective approach. I am delighted to say that their performance was mirrored by me on the all weather in respect of both being selective and profitable. So far this week I've had four bets and we've managed to find two winners. It doesn't get much better than that, with the winners paid out at 7/1 and 11/2.
Three weeks ago I was something like 40 points down on the year even though we'd kept things simple and worked to the same selective plan. I think we'd been a bit unlucky with one of my nh advisors in particular putting up selections which fell when looking sure to be in the shake up. Not to worry, you have to take these things on the chin and believe in what you're doing, trust your sources and stick to the plan. I did that and I'm now 133 points in front, having won 173 points during that three week period.
The last week alone has generated a profit on my account of 85 points. If ever there was a vindication for remaining selective, even when tempted with meetings like the Festival, then these profits are it. Nobody will ever convince me that having loads of bets, even during meetings like Cheltenham, is the right approach. I go back to my core belief which is that as punters the biggest single advantage we have over the bookmakers is that we can choose when to play and when to sit out and watch. Chucking bets around like confetti throws away our advantage in my opinion. I know some punters think they have to bet because it's the Festival and they're getting good prices on their selections, but the fact is that every horse is trying and some of the races are extremely tough.
I know this upturn in profits will not be maintained at the rate which has been achieved this week, but I do believe that I'm on the road to where I want to be at the end of the year. I'm off to check out todays card at Lingfield. Any selections will be posted by around 12 noon.
Friday, 13 March 2009
Feeling Lucky? Friday 13th...............
I was sitting back last night with my feet up thinking it would probably be a quiet day today, but the way things have started I couldn't have been more wrong. My nh advisors are at it again and I sincerely hope they are as right today as they have been all week. In addition I've got two bets myself on the aw today, so let's hope Friday 13th turns out to be lucky for the punters and a nightmare for the bookies.
My first aw bet today runs at Lingfield where I'm having
1 point each way on SMOKEY RYE at 100/30 (Paddy Power and Hills, both BOG)
I have kept my staking to the minimum on this selection simply because I am worried about the possibility of one being pulled from the race, in which case it's first two only on the place terms. Were that to happen I'd hate to have done 4 points if my selection finished 3rd.
It's then a long wait until my second bet, which is
1 point each way on STAR CHOICE at 11/2 (Stan James BOG, Ladbrokes)
Hopefully the wait will be worthwhile.
I'm off to watch the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, good luck if you're playing.
My first aw bet today runs at Lingfield where I'm having
1 point each way on SMOKEY RYE at 100/30 (Paddy Power and Hills, both BOG)
I have kept my staking to the minimum on this selection simply because I am worried about the possibility of one being pulled from the race, in which case it's first two only on the place terms. Were that to happen I'd hate to have done 4 points if my selection finished 3rd.
It's then a long wait until my second bet, which is
1 point each way on STAR CHOICE at 11/2 (Stan James BOG, Ladbrokes)
Hopefully the wait will be worthwhile.
I'm off to watch the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, good luck if you're playing.
Thursday, 12 March 2009
Kempton
I came pretty close to having a bet this evening at Kempton but in the end I resisted the temptation. Once again my nh advisors did the business at Cheltenham, this time via the winner of the World Hurdle, ensuring another 18 points find their way to my bank account. For me personally the last two or three weeks couldn't have gone any better, with over 140 points won between my nh advisors and myself on the aw. I know things can just as easily turn the other way but hopefully the selective approach will help maintain the upward momentum for a while yet.
Tomorrow sees sand action at Lingfield and Wolverhampton so hopefully I'll find a suitable opportunity at one of those venues, but if not I'm happy to wait.
Tomorrow sees sand action at Lingfield and Wolverhampton so hopefully I'll find a suitable opportunity at one of those venues, but if not I'm happy to wait.
Thursday 12th March
I'm not having a bet at Southwell today. I spent a lot of time looking through the 535 but I cannot come up with anything which forces me to have a few quid on. I may have said this before on here, I've certainly said it elsewhere, but I believe the biggest weapon we have as punters is that we can choose when to play and when to watch.
So now I'm left with Kempton and it's the 720 and 850 which will occupy most of my time. If I'm getting involved I will post on here by 6pm.
So now I'm left with Kempton and it's the 720 and 850 which will occupy most of my time. If I'm getting involved I will post on here by 6pm.
Wednesday, 11 March 2009
Two Races Tomorrow At Southwell
Nothing doing on the sand for me today but a couple of races catch they eye at Southwell on Thursday with one or two familiar faces coming out to do battle. I'll be up bright and early to go through the cards and any selections will be posted by 12 noon. Then of course there is also an evening card at Kempton, again with one or two interesting runners, so it could be a busy day. Oh, and of course my nh advisors will no doubt come up with something to keep me interested in the Fesival at Cheltenham (a great day courtesy of them today with 18 points profit generated from one maximum win bet and a well thought out each way double).
Wed 11th March
Two all weather meetings today and four races for me to study, but I haven't come up with anything strong enough to put on my account. I'm not going to post my thoughts on the races unless I'm actually having a bet so that's it for today. I can now sit back, put my feet up, wait for the pro's to do the business and keep an eye on JP's exploits at Cheltenham!
Daily Updates, Staking............
If I am having a bet on any given afternoon then selections will be posted on here by no later than 12 noon. If I am betting at an evening meeting selections will be posted by 6pm.
As for staking, well I now use a 10 point plan. My minimum bet is 1 point win or each way, my maximum is 5 points each way or 10 points win. I will usually back a horse to win somewhere between 5 and 10 points, although there will be exceptions, notably when backing bigger priced horses or when I find something I really want to go to town on.
As for staking, well I now use a 10 point plan. My minimum bet is 1 point win or each way, my maximum is 5 points each way or 10 points win. I will usually back a horse to win somewhere between 5 and 10 points, although there will be exceptions, notably when backing bigger priced horses or when I find something I really want to go to town on.
How I Do What I Do, Form Study, Finding Value...
It's interesting seeing how different people work through a race, often coming to the same conclusion. I used to try and employ a similar approach for all of my form study, flat, aw and nh, but the first thing to point out is I like to be a little bit selective, so I concentrated on races over 1 mile and more on the flat and 3 miles and more for nh. More recently I have stopped trying to find selections on nh racing as I simply didn't make it pay on my own. I now leave that to the experts (tipsters) and a guy I've become friends with (morning Gags) as a result of our similar approach to betting. Yesterday his only selection was an each way bet on United at Cheltenham. Now I know it didn't win, but I'm sure we'd all love to strike that kind of bet all day, every day if we could. Having spent hours discussing racing and betting with him, I now have total trust in his approach and selections, so if he puts one up I back it, simple as that.
Now, back to how I go about finding my selections on the all weather. Once I've identified a suitable race, usually over a mile or more, I'll have a general look through the form of each runner to see if I can dismiss any of them outright. It then becomes a process of elimintaion using various factors until I'm left with the ones I think have a serious chance. So far I'll probably not have any idea of prices available, which I think is a good thing. Once I have my contenders I will price them up according to how I think the race will be run. As an example I liked Very Well Red yesterday and I made that a 3/1 shot. This is the bit many punters struggle with, yes I made it my most likely winner but I still made it something like a 3/1 shot to win the race, therefore I couldn't back it unless I got at least 4/1. That gives me at least a 25% edge and that's where the profit comes from over the course of the year. Trying to explain this to most punters doesn't work, but I know that if I back my horses with a 25% edge I will win over the long term. Short term of course it means I'll miss winners as I won't back a horse unless I can get 25% above what I think is the the right price, but I've learned to live with that. Super Frank was one example. I made it a 5/1 shot the other day and that was the price, so we let it go. Backing it at that price would have meant no edge, no 25%, and over the long term that would mean no profit.
Getting back to form study, I have to say I find the aw a lot easier than nh, hence my decision to concentrate on the sand stuff. That's easy for me to explain, it's to do with my own analysis of the times achieved by horses over c and d, I suppose you could call this my speed ratings. I will look at the contenders and make a note of all their form, with particular attention paid to c and d form in this class of race (or better of course). I will look at how each performed, bearing in mind their respective ratings, the weight they carried, the draw, the way the race was run etc, before coming up with my conclusions.
If I fancy 3 horses in one race and I'm sweeter on one of them than the others, then I'll make that a 3/1 shot (a point for each rival and one for the field). Of course I'll then need 4/1 to be betting with my 25% edge, but that pretty much sums up how I do things and I'm pleased to say it works and makes me money. Where I think there are more serious contenders I will leave the race alone as being too tough, unless of course I get a silly price for my fancy. This happens more often than many would think, (Transvestite, Formation, Bookiebasherbabe, Whodunit, Hibre Court etc), but of course I back more losers than winners, I just back the winners at over the odds I think they should be.
I originally posted something similar to the above on a private forum when one or two of the guys asked me how I go about things. I have changed my approach slightly since then, in as much as I now stick to the all weather myself and leave the nh to others as I've said before.
Hopefully some of you will find this useful and for others, well at least you'll see where I'm coming from as and when I post selections in future.
Finally, a piece of advice for anyone. Wherever possible place your bets with bookies offering best odds guaranteed. Yesterday we were paid out at 7/1 rather than 4/1 as our selection amazingly drifted like the proverbial barge. You only need that to happen a few times and it can make a huge difference to your bank balance!
Now, back to how I go about finding my selections on the all weather. Once I've identified a suitable race, usually over a mile or more, I'll have a general look through the form of each runner to see if I can dismiss any of them outright. It then becomes a process of elimintaion using various factors until I'm left with the ones I think have a serious chance. So far I'll probably not have any idea of prices available, which I think is a good thing. Once I have my contenders I will price them up according to how I think the race will be run. As an example I liked Very Well Red yesterday and I made that a 3/1 shot. This is the bit many punters struggle with, yes I made it my most likely winner but I still made it something like a 3/1 shot to win the race, therefore I couldn't back it unless I got at least 4/1. That gives me at least a 25% edge and that's where the profit comes from over the course of the year. Trying to explain this to most punters doesn't work, but I know that if I back my horses with a 25% edge I will win over the long term. Short term of course it means I'll miss winners as I won't back a horse unless I can get 25% above what I think is the the right price, but I've learned to live with that. Super Frank was one example. I made it a 5/1 shot the other day and that was the price, so we let it go. Backing it at that price would have meant no edge, no 25%, and over the long term that would mean no profit.
Getting back to form study, I have to say I find the aw a lot easier than nh, hence my decision to concentrate on the sand stuff. That's easy for me to explain, it's to do with my own analysis of the times achieved by horses over c and d, I suppose you could call this my speed ratings. I will look at the contenders and make a note of all their form, with particular attention paid to c and d form in this class of race (or better of course). I will look at how each performed, bearing in mind their respective ratings, the weight they carried, the draw, the way the race was run etc, before coming up with my conclusions.
If I fancy 3 horses in one race and I'm sweeter on one of them than the others, then I'll make that a 3/1 shot (a point for each rival and one for the field). Of course I'll then need 4/1 to be betting with my 25% edge, but that pretty much sums up how I do things and I'm pleased to say it works and makes me money. Where I think there are more serious contenders I will leave the race alone as being too tough, unless of course I get a silly price for my fancy. This happens more often than many would think, (Transvestite, Formation, Bookiebasherbabe, Whodunit, Hibre Court etc), but of course I back more losers than winners, I just back the winners at over the odds I think they should be.
I originally posted something similar to the above on a private forum when one or two of the guys asked me how I go about things. I have changed my approach slightly since then, in as much as I now stick to the all weather myself and leave the nh to others as I've said before.
Hopefully some of you will find this useful and for others, well at least you'll see where I'm coming from as and when I post selections in future.
Finally, a piece of advice for anyone. Wherever possible place your bets with bookies offering best odds guaranteed. Yesterday we were paid out at 7/1 rather than 4/1 as our selection amazingly drifted like the proverbial barge. You only need that to happen a few times and it can make a huge difference to your bank balance!
Tuesday, 10 March 2009
Alive And Kicking....The All Weather King
Such a lot has happened over the last few months, where to begin............
Unfortunately I'm still working and I guess I will be for another four or five years, partly because the job pays too much to give it up and partly because the wife likes the security that brings.
Now the positive. Originally I started the old blog to show that anyone with a brain, a selective approach and the discipline to stake properly could make decent profits and compete with many of the high profile tipster services. I think I achieved that even though my approach wasn't as well thought through, planned and executed as it could have been.
The best thing about the blog is that because of it I came in to contact with a lot of good guys as a result of them seeing it. Through them I have learned so much and my betting has become so much more profitable as a result. A few of the guys subscribe to the very services I was trying to "compete" with in terms of results achieved. Through them I've learned who I can trust and who to leave alone. As a result I now subscribe to one or two services myself. I will not name them on here and their results will not feature because that is not what this blog was or indeed is about. All I will say is that they make it pay.
The biggest lesson I've learned is that you have to be a master of one trade and not a jack of all, you have to develop an area of speciality, become an expert. Now I have always struggled with any jump racing and most sprints on the flat, but another factor stuck out like a sore thumb when I looked through my betting records. I am an expert on the all weather racing!!!!
So that is what this blog is now going to be all about, my pursuit of 100 points profit throughout the year via betting on the all weather. Some may think that's not a lot to aim for, but I have other services, friends, contacts who will help me achieve 300 points profit from the nh and flat turf racing, that's their area of expertise and this, the aw, is mine.
My results on the aw so far for 2009 are now shown on the right. I appreciate the selections have not been available on here for everyone to see, but I have shared them with my friends and contacts and, to be honest, this is not about "proofing" all results in advance, it's just about showing how much of a success anyone can make of the betting game if they apply a little thought and a lot of hard work! I will try and post all future selections in advance when I can, so those of you who want to follow them can, but I make no promises as it won't always be possible. I do have some guys who I text my selections, but in fairness they provide me with useful opinions and information in return so it works for and benefits all of us.
That's it for now, hopefully onwards and upwards to 100 points on the all weather!!
Unfortunately I'm still working and I guess I will be for another four or five years, partly because the job pays too much to give it up and partly because the wife likes the security that brings.
Now the positive. Originally I started the old blog to show that anyone with a brain, a selective approach and the discipline to stake properly could make decent profits and compete with many of the high profile tipster services. I think I achieved that even though my approach wasn't as well thought through, planned and executed as it could have been.
The best thing about the blog is that because of it I came in to contact with a lot of good guys as a result of them seeing it. Through them I have learned so much and my betting has become so much more profitable as a result. A few of the guys subscribe to the very services I was trying to "compete" with in terms of results achieved. Through them I've learned who I can trust and who to leave alone. As a result I now subscribe to one or two services myself. I will not name them on here and their results will not feature because that is not what this blog was or indeed is about. All I will say is that they make it pay.
The biggest lesson I've learned is that you have to be a master of one trade and not a jack of all, you have to develop an area of speciality, become an expert. Now I have always struggled with any jump racing and most sprints on the flat, but another factor stuck out like a sore thumb when I looked through my betting records. I am an expert on the all weather racing!!!!
So that is what this blog is now going to be all about, my pursuit of 100 points profit throughout the year via betting on the all weather. Some may think that's not a lot to aim for, but I have other services, friends, contacts who will help me achieve 300 points profit from the nh and flat turf racing, that's their area of expertise and this, the aw, is mine.
My results on the aw so far for 2009 are now shown on the right. I appreciate the selections have not been available on here for everyone to see, but I have shared them with my friends and contacts and, to be honest, this is not about "proofing" all results in advance, it's just about showing how much of a success anyone can make of the betting game if they apply a little thought and a lot of hard work! I will try and post all future selections in advance when I can, so those of you who want to follow them can, but I make no promises as it won't always be possible. I do have some guys who I text my selections, but in fairness they provide me with useful opinions and information in return so it works for and benefits all of us.
That's it for now, hopefully onwards and upwards to 100 points on the all weather!!
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