Watching Brief.......

Today has been one of those days when we’ve simply run out of time. As most people reading this blog will know, we both have full-time jobs and families which compete with racing for our time. Our strategy dictates that we will not bet unless we’ve both independently identified the same horse as the most likely winner and that the chosen beast is available at we believe to be a value price. Today only one of us has had time to complete the analysis, therefore we will not be betting.

As some of you will have already guessed the race we have looked at is the extended mile Class 6 Handicap due off at 445pm. Initially this looked a tricky race, but after more in depth analysis one of us ended up with a “first” shortlist of four and then eventually with two likely candidates. Normally at this stage whichever one of us has completed our analysis would simply wait for the other one to catch up, for want of a better expression. Then, and only then, if we agreed on the final one or two we would discuss our “tissue” prices and agree a plan of attack.

As an example, yesterday we made Street Devil a 4/1 chance, meaning we’d be happy to back the horse at a minimum of 5/1. At that price we’d have bet 1 point each way, but because far greater odds were available in the morning we increased our stakes to take advantage of the extra value we felt we were getting. That doesn’t mean it’s true to say that “the bigger the price, the more value, therefore the bigger the bet”. If we make a horse a 10/1 chance and that is the price available then there is no value at all in backing it as far as we are concerned.

Back to today’s race and since we haven’t both completed the analysis, we haven’t discussed prices and staking, we can hardly turn around now and get stuck in, can we? For a bit of amusement and to see if we’ve dodged a bullet or potentially missed a winner, the two horses on the one shortlist were Lend a Grand and Sarwin. Hopefully we’ve missed a bullet and the race turns out to be the tricky affair we initially thought it was. We’ve heard good words for three others in the race, namely Fine Ruler, Bermacha and Kirstys Lad, so whatever happens someone is going to miss out!

So, no bet for us today but tomorrow looks like it could be fairly busy with three or four races of interest already identified. Good luck if you play today.