Some Action This Evening.......

It’s a busy day for us today and we are going to have strong bets in two races this evening at Southwell. The bets are:

2PTS EW Rawdon - 6.20 Southwell (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Bet365, 15/2 with Blue Square , 7/1 generally)

2PTS EW Street Devil - 6.50 Southwell (available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes, 9/1 with Corals and Blue Square , 8/1 generally)

Ok so the reasoning behind the bets. The 2 selections are both well overpriced in our opinion and represent very good value at the available prices.

6.20 Southwell

After spending a while on this race we both managed to quickly whittle it down to 3 or 4 possible winners. On a recent form line involving They All Laughed and Rawdon, when they finished 1st and 2nd over C & D, TAL should strictly confirm the form on 1lb worse terms. However Rawdon was in front a long way from home that day and after getting TAL off the bridle and looking the likely winner, it was worn down in the closing stages. When you look back through Rawdons past form it is clearly a horse with lots of ability and has put up some very impressive performances on the clock over this C & D, however all its best runs have coincided with a strong pace where it has been produced late. The presence of Stringsofmyheart in the field should ensure that there is a decent pace on this evening and hopefully Rawdon will get a good tow along. Of the others, Elk Trail has been campaigned over much shorter trips and remains winless and despite the fact that it has won a couple of weak hurdle races this winter, there is no guarantee that the trip will suit. Onemoreandstay has possibilities and has won over 11 furlongs over the course, but that was in a weak race and despite looking at though it should appreciate the step up, the horse has a bit to find on the formbook. Somersturn could be anything and being trained by Barney Curley there is every chance that this may be heavily punted considering that it is 19lbs lower than when it was last of 10 over C & D in January! This horse had some fair form in Germany before coming to this country but on all form to date we couldn’t recommend backing this at the current price. Intersky Charm has form but at shorter trips and the rest are either well out of the handicap or have no worthwhile form in the book. Overall it will be very disappointing if Rawdon isn’t thereabouts and if it runs to its best it has a good chance of winning and 8/1 looks too big.

6.50 Southwell

This race is a little more competitive but the one horse which stands out is the selection. Street Devil has only ran once over C & D and it recorded an excellent time carrying 9st 12lbs when winning a maiden. It has since ran at Bath on Good/Firm ground over 10 furlongs on Tuesday and after making the running it was headed inside the last 2 furlongs. There are a couple of reasons for wanting to be with this horse today, firstly the sire Street Cry has an incredible record with his prodigies at Southwell, indeed from 12 runs they have produced 8 wins at a strike rate of 66%. The horse is clearly at home on the surface and the jockey booking of Darryl Holland (won on it last time) is a massive eyecatcher, as he goes to Southwell for just one ride. We don’t believe that this horse needs to front run but expect it to be prominent and hopefully things will pan out that way. Of its rivals, White Deer is likely to be well backed after running a good race at Thirsk last week but despite it dropping to an attractive looking handicap mark it has always appeared to want a sharp 7f on fast ground and has not really got any C & D form in the bag. We expect this to make the running along with My Paris, who is also attractively weighted on its best form, but is likely to need the run and seems to perform best in August/ September. Having A Ball is up in the weights for winning lower class races, All In The Red needs a lifetime best to win and is arguably better over a longer trip, Barataria has a chance but looks on a stiff enough mark, Ours is an in and out performer and on the clock needs to improve to beat the selection, Paraguay is likely to strip fitter for the run and has a bit to find on previous C & D runs, Hilbre Court and West End Lad are closely matched on some pieces of C &D form but are both up in class and look to be on high enough marks, and Flying Squad looks almost impossible to fancy. Over all we made Street Life a 4/1 chance here and at 9 or 10/1 is definitely worth a strong bet. This horse could be the subject of a gamble today and hopefully the horse won’t let us down!

Good Luck!