Mistakes Cost Us

Whenever you make mistakes it will cost you and that's fair enough I suppose. Today Gags selection made a mistake late on which I thought cost the horse a chance of winning. Gags view was that the winner would have stayed on and won regardless, so two slightly different opinions from two people watching the same race. Of course the game is all about opinions and you don't have to be right that often to make it a profitable game to play as long as you play with value on your side.

Unfortunately the mistake made by Mighty Man today was a small one compared to the cock-ups I've made in the last couple of days. Looking at the selections as they appear on the right it looks like a pretty quiet week so far with just two bets between the two of us. Yes they both placed and yes they've both generated a profit for us, but this week could have been so much better. I'm not talking about Cold Turkey, backed by us at 4/1 and smashed in to 2/1 before being pulled out of the race. There's nothing anyone can do about that and it costs us nothing anyway. The same day Cold Turkey didn't run at Lingfield I fancied one at Kempton in the evening. We'd backed Cross The Line each way at decent prices last time out when it just got done in a photo. In this race at Kempton it was at the front end of the betting but I reckoned two rivals would finish in front of it. I said as much to Gags, something along the lines of "I expect Pegasus Again to race prominently and finish in front of Cross The Line. But I reckon Marajaa could nail that one close home as long as it doesn't meet too much trouble in running." We discussed the race and agreed that if Marajaa was 4/1 or bigger we'd back it each way. In the Racing Post my "selection" was forecast at a much bigger price so we thought 4/1 or bigger would be easy enough to obtain. When I looked at oddschecker I couldn't believe it, the horse was 5/2 from 11/4. At that point I decided we'd leave it alone. No way were we getting involved at those odds and with the potential of a non-runner leaving the race with just seven, and then of course there was also the luck in running issue. I didn't think any more about the race until after the event when Gags called me to say he'd just flicked on RUK and seen a replay of the race. You can imagine how we felt, not when we saw the horse had won, but when we saw the starting price of 7/1. A minimum stake each way bet with a best odds guaranteed bookie would have added over £800 to the bottom line. I'm not saying we'd have waited for 7/1, of course not, but if I'd had the common sense to check the betting before the off we'd have definitely backed it once it reached 4/1 and since 99% of our betting is done with bog bookies, well we'd have done very nicely out of it.

So that mistake cost us as we didn't have a penny on. That brings us to my next cock-up. Last night Gags had two selections lined up for today. We backed Mighty Man and sent out the text messages and emails to those who have asked to be on the distribution list. We explained that there might be another selection sent out this morning but that it would depend upon prices. In the end I sent out a message this morning and as anyone on the list will confirm it said "235 Aintree Walkon 2 points each way at 3/1 or bigger". I know some people have backed this cosy winner anyway, regardless of the required price not being achieved, but it just goes to show that form study and race analysis are not enough on their own. You have to make the right decisions and be in a position to take advantage when circumstances change and opportunities arise.

Someone once said "it's okay to make mistakes, just don't keep making the same ones!" Hopefully that's me done for a while, either that or I'll let Gags decide in future on his own what prices we're playing at!

The positive spin on this is that at least we know our analysis is still spot on. If that continues and I don't get in the way then we should continue to make a good few quid.

There is nothing on the aw for me tomorrow. I think Gags may have another selection for Aintree. If so he'll post on here by about mid-day tomorrow, if not earlier.