3.45 Beverley

There is one bet for us today:

1PT EW Fortunate Isle 3.45 Beverley (available at 4/1 generally including all BOG bookies)

This 17 runner handicap is far less competitive than the numbers would have you believe and after looking closely at all the runners we believe that the most likely winner is Fortunate Isle.

This horse has everything in its favour today:

1) It has dropped to a mark 18lbs lower than its previous success
2) It has won over C & D and clearly relishes a stiff uphill finish over this sort of trip.
3) It is dropped into a Class 5 race for the first time after competing in Class 2, 3 & 4 races.
4) It should be fit after a winter hurdling campaign and has had a recent pipe-opener in an 8F handicap at Musselburgh where it stayed on quietly from the back over an inadequate trip.
5) It has won on firm ground before as well as softer so there should be no problems with the predicted underfoot Good/Firm conditions.
6) It has an excellent draw at a track where you have a big advantage if you're drawn high.
7) It is from a top trainer/jockey combination.
8) Its best form appears to come in Spring/early Summer so this time of year is the time to catch it

The other horse which makes some appeal and is also well handicapped is New Beginning and following a lean winter spell on the AW where it ran creditably without winning, it returned to turf with a good run at Nottingham last week where it finished 3rd. It had some minor troubles in running that day, although I don't think it cost it the race, but this horse is on a winning mark and also has a good draw. Of the rest Malinsa Blue looked interesting but has the worst draw in stall 1, although it is fairly handicapped and the jockey booking catches the eye. There are numerous reasons for opposing the others, many will need the run first time up, several are not likely to get the trip, and the others look weighted up to their best (some are just not good enough). Spotlight have identified Sirvino as a potentially well handicapped horse but on the evidence seen to date we couldn't be going anywhere near this at the forecast prices.

To conclude, we make Fortunate Isle odds on to be in the first four and agreed that 4/1 would be the minimum price we would be prepared to play at, therefore at the prices it is worthy of a 1PT each way investment.

If there is anything from Kempton this evening Mick will post it up later on.

Good luck