A Cheeky EW Double Today!

Guys,

There is one bet today.

1PT EW DOUBLE on the following:

2.40 Hereford - Le Brocquy (available at 13/8 Paddy Power, 6/4 generally)
4.40 Hereford - Boomtown Kat (available at 7/2 with Hills & VCbet, 100/30 generally)

This bet offers fantastic terms for the punter as you are getting slightly more than your money back if they both finish in the first 3, and a nice return if they both finish first. IMO the races are both very uncompetitive, despite the large numbers of runners, and I think that something will have to go wrong with the selections for them not to be placed. I also think that they have very good chances of winning the races and for that reason this bet is worth a couple of points.

If we start with the 2.40, the race appears to be a virtual match between the selection and Noticeable and whilst Noticeable is a proven performer in this grade it will have to be on top of its game to beat Le Brocquy today at the weights. Le Brochuy was an 81 rated performer on the flat and its best form was on fast ground, however its 2 starts to date over hurdles have been on virtually unraceable ground at Plumpton, where it understandably tired in the closing stages, and last time out when it finished a close up second to a previous winner. That day it would have finished 3rd but for a penultimate flight faller, however that horse has since gone on to win a decent novice hurdle against some highly creditable opposition. The fact that the ground was probably still on the slow side for the selection and the fact that it ran pretty green and wasn't ridden with much vigour lead me to believe that it will improve significantly for the sharp track and faster ground, and also for the application of the blinkers. All in all it must go close and hard to see out of the 3.

The 4.40 is a race which again has a lot of quantity rather than quality and several of these are yet to jump a hurdle in public. The selection has finished 2nd in a fast ground bumper at Worcester last year and has only ran over hurdles twice. First time up it was in the process of running a decent race before it was badly hampered and effectively pulled up as a result, and last time it ran a storming race giving weight to a Nicky Henderson hotpot. It was beaten 1 1/2 lengths that day but they were well clear of the rest and it showed that the ground and trip will be no problem today. The winner of that race had some decent previous form and in the context of this race I believe the selection has a similar level of form to the favourite, Greenwich Meantime. GM has only had one run over hurdles and at the age of 9 is a late starter. The horse won the Chester Cup in 2007 and was a decent stayer on the flat but at a price of 5/4 it appears to be more a case of top class connections and flat form rather than what it has actually achieved over hurdles. It could be much better than the rest but happy to oppose these types with something at a more solid price. Of the rest, there are a couple of potential improvers who have never jumped a hurdle before (Aim For The Stars for one), but I'd be disappointed if the selection wasn't in the 3 if it runs somewhere near its last run.

Mick will be back on here this evening by 6pm if he has anything from Kempton.

Just a quick word about the texts and emails, we have decided that it is only worth sending these out when there is a bet or something of significance and I hope that this meets with everybodys approval.

Good luck if you play today!