Today sees the biggest and most famous steeplechase race in the world and whilst I have had a few winners in the 80's and early 90's it is not a race I have done particularly well in since. That said I had a few quid on Comply or Die last year at 16's and I've weighed in again antepost on Black Apalachi @ 25's.....I still think this has a great chance but I've also thrown a few quid at Himalayan Trail @ 33's but the race is a a bit of a lottery and requires an enormoius amount of luck in running!
As far as today is concerned I have one bet to pass on:
1pt EW Catch Me - 2.50 Aintree (available at 11/2 with PP, BSQ, Sporting & Hills, 5/1 generally)
Ok, the reasons behind the bet are:
This race has been won in 3 of the last 4 years by Al Eile, who again runs today, and this emphasises what a specialist trip 2m 4F is. The races that Al Eile has won previously have not been particularly strong affairs and I believe todays race offers the toughest assignment that this horse has faced. The race is contested by a number of horses who are either 2 milers (where they appear to need a step up in trip) or 3 milers who are dropping back in distance. The horses which I believe are truly at their best at this distance are:
Al Eile, Catch Me, FiveforThree, United, Whiteoak & Hardy Eustace
and therefore if we can eliminate a few of these then we might find the winner. I think Hardy Eustace is past his best, United and Whiteoak are probably not up to the class of this race, Al Eile is now a 9 year old and its preperation for this years race has not been without interruption, and I think it faces much stiffer opposition this year and FiveforThree has also had an interrupted preperation and needs to improve to win this. That leaves Catch Me and the profile and form of the horse looks really solid and I believe a fast run race over this C & D will be its optimal conditions. This season it has ran 4 times and recorded RPR figures in excess of 160 on 3 occasions and has been aimed at this race for some time. It finds 2 miles too sharp and a truly run 3 miles too far and I'm sure it will run a big race today. I'm not too concerned about the ground today as it has got some good pieces of form on Good ground and with a little rain overnight there should be no excuses there.
Of the other rivals, Celestial Halo ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle but it is stepped up 3 furlongs and I'm not sure that the track really plays to its strengths. Jered and Katchit both step up in trip and have chances, if they stay, but I believe that these types of horses are aimed at these races as an afterthought, as there is very little else for them to go for.
Hopefully Catch Me will run its race and make us a few quid.
Mick will send out a text later if there is anything doing on the AW but good luck and I hope you get the National winner!!!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
spot on gags mate, bit of a nightmare as i have backed al eile e/w, but have backed your selction each way as well
lets hope we have a first and second not bothered which order.
good luck mate
good luck guys, been checking in here recently, does appear that one of you seems to be providing all the profits though, someone needs to start pulling their weight..lol.
Hi Binzer,
I'm sure you're only having a bit of fun but I have to tell you something I've kept quiet until now. Everyone knows about Gags views the other day about Walkon and that but for me his "account" on here would look much better than it does. What people don't know is that a little while ago Gags picked out two horses and we both backed them in an eachway double. The result was two winners and the best part of £2,000 in profit for each of us. Nobody else knew about these selections so Gags decided it was best not to post them among his results as he didn't want to be accused of anything underhand. All I will say is that the money from those bets is in my bank! Of course, now that we send out emails and texts to people they get to see exactly what we're backing, so even if we can't always post on here we have plenty of people who can verify what we say. So now you and everyone else knows that Gags has already put up his fair share of winners and generated some tidy profits for us. I know that will continue as he's as good a judge of form as I know.
Cheers
Mick
Post a Comment