Sunday 12 April 2009

A Game Of Fine Margins

The difference between success and failure is often a fine line, a nostril here and a short head there. When you are in the middle of a decent run the breaks seem to go your way and the opposite seems to happen when you're struggling. I'm not one to worry too much about luck, good or bad, as I believe these things will even themselves out over the course of the year. We simply have to stick to the plan. That means we keep looking for our idea of the likely winner of any chosen race and we back them when they are available at what we believe are value prices.

This week has been the worst of the year so far for us. Our paid for services have had just as tough a week as us, leading to an overall loss of about 30 points. The good news is that of course we are only losing money we've previously won and we're still miles in front. At least we should be able to get a few bets on now without too much grief!

I've had a look back at my all weather selections just to see if I'd change anything if I could, but apart from possibly one selection I really don't think I would. I'm happy that the analysis was right and the prices represented value, we've just had one or two things go against us. Of course things like this happen regularly in racing and as much as I can remember Mahadee, Cross The Line, Formidable Guest and Samarinda all getting done in close finishes for a return of one kind or another, I also remember Sgt Schultz getting up in a blanket finish to provide us with a very profitable return. As I've said before it's a game of fine margins.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
1 PLACED (20%)
PROFIT / LOSS -12 POINTS


YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
68 BETS
14 WINNERS (20%)
26 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +40.06 POINTS


There are no selections from either of us today with what looks like pretty poor stuff being served up for the punters today. We'll be back on here tomorrow with our views on the Bank Holiday cards.

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