Do We Learn By Our Mistakes?

I’m sure we’d all like to learn by our own, or even better still by other peoples mistakes. Whilst we’ve backed a number of horses this year which have gone on to win in their next couple of runs, we’ve never actually been on them at the time. Some would say that’s our mistake, we take the view that under normal circumstances we prefer to give any selection one chance to prove us right. If the selection doesn’t “do the business” for us then we tend to leave them alone after that rather than follow them over a cliff. Too many punters get caught out chasing well handicapped horses and by the time they manage a win the punters have only got back what they’ve previously lost anyway.

We have decided to play in one race today and given the opening paragraph of this thread one or two of you may already have worked out what we’re doing. Once again we’ve decided to play on the sand and as with our last selection our chosen venue is Kempton. In our opinion the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap is not as competitive as some might think. We believe there a very valid reasons for taking on one or two at the front of the market. Our analysis can be seen below:-

Checklow – finished in front of Samarinda last time out in a better race than this. We believe the way the race was run suited Checklow and there is no guarantee that he’ll perform as well today. He could “bounce”, he could meet trouble in running, the race might not be run at the strong pace we think he needs over this distance, he’s a pound worse off with that rival and above all else he’s the wrong price at 9/4. We’re happy to take on this one today.

Wintercast – Right now everyone in the world wants to be with the trainer of this horse. We put up one of his to win for us on Friday, but the cat is definitely out of the bag now and as a result some of his horses are going off at artificially low prices for what they’ve actually achieved. That last point is the key here. On what this horse has actually achieved it is not a 9/2 shot to win this race, but that is the price with one firm. On what the horse has achieved, after a 531 day absence and at the price we have to take this on.

L’Hirondelle – Needs to improve on what he’s achieved so far to win this. His defeat over c and d in a similar event in January leaves him with a bit to find. His next time out victory was pleasing on the eye but at Lingfield in a weaker event.

Vainglory – There has been a fair bit of support for this one today, but in our view he’ll possibly come on for the run and would need to be in top form to win from a difficult draw. Once again another we can’t side with on form in the book.

The Snatcher – We simply don’t think this one is good enough. Looking at previous c and d performances we cannot see The Snatcher finishing in front of our selection if they run to form.

Tartan Gigha – We think this one will struggle to win this type of event off its current mark unless the others allow it a soft lead. We think our selection should have that possibility covered.

Dubai Dynamo – Another one making its seasonal reappearance but we think this one would be better off over a shorter trip.

Southandwest – The trip is our main concern with this one as well. The horse also looks to be on a high enough mark.

Aflaam – There seems to be a few quid floating around for this one but what has it actually achieved? A win in a Thirsk Class 4 maiden on good to soft ground in a none-too-special time. The previous run in a Newmarket maiden was arguably a better performance and the horse is unexposed, but we cannot back this type today. First time out from stall one is a big ask in our opinion.

Ballinteni – A decent draw and running off a winning mark, but record over the distance doesn’t inspire confidence. Hard to see this one finishing in front a few of these, not least of all our selection.

This leaves us with our selection and bet today:-

420 Kempton – SAMARINDA 2 points each way at 6/1 (generally available including BOG firms), 13/2 Sky Bet

So for the first time this year we have decided to back a selection for its next run following on from a defeat. Last time out we backed Samarinda and I have to be honest and say I expected the horse to be held up. I don’t blame the jockey for making the running. In fact I think he did the right thing given that there was no pace on early. Where I think he got it wrong is he went off too fast, that’s why he was swamped late on and just failed to hang on for the place. A couple of further points to make. That was a better race than this in terms of what many of the runners had already achieved going in to the race. I think if you check subsequent form you’ll also find it has been franked. Today Samarinda has the perfect draw and I’d expect the jockey to take up a fairly prominent position, if not make the running. However, this time I’d like to think he’d be more than capable of getting the fractions right. So we can see how this race could be run to suit our selection, we know he is capable in this grade, off this mark, over this course and distance and we can make a case for opposing a number of the other runners. The final piece of the puzzle to slot in to place is the price he can be backed at which is not far off three times that of the favourite at the time of writing out this analysis. Regardless of the outcome we believe we have placed a value bet on a live contender and we’re happy with that.