One For This Evening...

There is one bet for us today:

2PTS EW Haarth Sovereign 19.40 Kempton (available at 6/1 generally including with BOG bookies)

We looked in depth at this race last night and after factoring a number of things in we came to the following conclusions:

El Diego – Despite form figures of 1,1,2 may be better off catching him later in the year. Up in class on polytrack when he may be better off on fibresand and / or over a longer trip? Wrong price at 3/1.

Shady Gloom – Never raced on surface, trainer not known for winners over this trip or with horses at the likely price.

Bassinet – Doesn’t look good enough.

Red Merlin – Respected but not convinced first time out is the right time for this one. Has never raced on the surface and there is the suspicion it may not see the horse perform to his best. Wrong price.

Ruff Diamond – On balance of form not good enough but not totally dismissed.

Sahrati – Well handicapped on winning form at up to 11 furlongs. One previous attempt over c and d was only beaten 3.5 lengths in a reasonable time. Suspect that this will come on for the run and may be better dropped back in trip.

Shanafarahan – C and D winner, in fact unbeaten at this venue, including when beating one of today’s rivals fairly easily. Difficult to see the form being turned around even allowing for revised weights. However, up in the handicap in a better race so a tougher assignment. Possible but unlikely.

Star Choice – A winner for us a while ago on a Friday evening, but that was at Wolverhampton in a weaker race. Off a higher mark and in a tougher race we don’t fancy this one to turn the form around with Shanafarahan, let alone win the race.

Haarth Sovereign – Likes it here as shown when winning handicap off 3lb lower mark here last year. Goes well fresh, that victory was first time out last year. Has proved the distance is no problem with some creditable performances in arguably better races than this. Trainer has hit the ground running this year already and has a 30% strike rate so far. If tuned up and ready to roll this looks a must for the frame and is our most likely winner.

Taking all the above analysis into account we were of the opinion that the front two in the betting, Red Merlin and El Diego were worth opposing at the respective prices of 3/1. Sahrati is undoubtedly well handicapped but it has not won over as far as this before and the first time out stats don't inspire. We would have been happy to back Haarth Sovereign at 5/1 and therefore the 6/1 available looks very generous and constitutes a decent bet.

Good luck if you're playing.