One Race, Two Selections......

I like betting in races where only a few can be seriously fancied, especially if the shape of the race, the way it's going to be run and the market allow an each way bet to nothing. Only yesterday I commented about being selective and waiting for bets to come along rather than going looking for them. In some ways todays selections fit the bill but in others they don't. All things considered though, I feel we have to get involved. The race of interest is the first on the Kempton card, the 8 furlong Class 2 Handicap.

My view is that there are reasons to oppose the front five in the betting. Of course I'm not saying they can't win, just that I think there are valid reasons for taking them on. When you can find reasons to take on the front five in a 10 runner race then it becomes almost impossible not to have a bet. The reason I've backed two in the race is because I can't be absolutely sure exactly how the race will be run. I'd like to think I've got a chance either way now, with one likely to be ridden prominently and the other held up.

Extraterrestrial is the favourite in most books but I can't have it. It has been beaten by a couple of these before, is up in the handicap and the draw and jockey wouldn't give me any confidence. It's got a chance but is way too short for me and I'm advised there's another reason for taking it on. Apparently "Thommo" has tipped it up!
Cape Hawk has a cracking record here and goes well fresh but looks high enough in the weights to me and is another at too short a price for what it has achieved.
Titan Triumph does not have a good record here and is another one high enough in the handicap. This horse loves Lingfield but even on some form there is 10lbs worse off with one of todays rivals. Third favourite? Not in my book.
Cordell is the second Hannon horse in the race, likely to race prominently from a good draw, but in my opinion will have to improve upon c and d winning form to take this race. Of course he could well do that, but from a 9lb higher mark I'm happy to take him on at the prices.
Mahadee is one I backed two runs ago at Wolverhampton when he was slowly away and stayed on at the finish beaten a short head for the place money. I think he could run a decent race but his record here is not good and I'd prefer to see him back at Wolverhampton.
Opus Maximus has two unplaced efforts to his name at this venue. His best win to date was in a Class 4 Handicap at Yarmouth off a mark of 79. Racing today off 85 I am happy enough to pass on this one.
Checklow and Jack Junior have big question marks by their names in my paper. Jack Junior is rated 99 but has only a maiden win to his name and there's nothing in his recent form to suggest he can take this. Checklow could be anything and is clearly unexposed, but as I've said before I can't back horses like this. The market also seems unsure about these two. Jack Junior is the rag at 40/1 with one firm but only 25/1 elsewhere. Checklow is stranger still, as big as 20/1 in a place but as short as 8/1 with some. Make of that what you will.
That leaves me with my two selections for the race:-

205 Kempton - SALTAGIOO 1 point eachway at 8/1 (generally available, bet with BOG)
205 Kempton - SAMARINDA 1 point eachway at 16/1 (generally available, bet BOG)

I would prefer to back just one horse in any race, but sometimes there are good reasons for backing more than one. I believe that is the case today. Saltagioo has taken really well to the all weather, running two good races over course and distance. The last time out victory was a particularly impressive performance, although he beat Viva Vettori (7/2 in to 13/8 and my selection for that race) in the process! I expect Saltagioo to take advantage of a good draw and with a little improvement I can see him running a massive race.
Samarinda is the hold-up performer who would prefer a decent pace. I expect him to be dropped in from his draw and to try and pick them up in the final furlong. He holds one or two of todays rivals on bits of form, has won a Class 2 Handicap over c and d and is running off a winning mark.

If my selections run up to their best then I think they must go close and at the prices I believe they represent the value in this race. Good luck if you're playing today.