One Bet Today.......

Yesterdays bet was a major disappointment and the run of Le Brocquy left me scratching my head somewhat!! It has clearly run way below form and I can only think that the blinkers have had an adverse effect on it, as it has ran nowhere near up to form. The other market rival has also ran appallingly and I have no excuses for the bet. The other selection has run a decent race and finished 2nd, with the 5/4 fav unplaced and well beaten. Not my finest hour by any means but we will move on and hopefully get back on track. Just a quick word on the price of the first selection, I am not keen on putting up 6/4 shots but on this occasion I thought it was a virtual match and I made it long odds against on it being out of the frame........just shows that they are not machines, as the two I thought it was between, finished out of the places!!

There is one bet for us today:

2PT WIN - Wednesdays Country - 2.20 Wincanton (available at 11/4 with Blue Square & 888 Sport, generally 5/2 including with all BOG bookies)

When I looked at the cards last night I made this a 6/4-2/1 chance and I was amazed when I checked first thing this morning and saw that it was 3/1 with Bet 365. The race is very uncompetitive with a number of horses who are woefully out of form or badly handicapped. The selection is an 8 year old with very few miles on the clock and it has recorded a couple of decent wins over fences on fast ground round sharp tracks. Last year it won off 79 at Southwell before being sent off a well backed favouirite to follow up at Market Rasen but it disappointed that day and perhaps was not given sufficient time between races. It then reappeared 11 months later and ran out a winner from a horse which subsequently won next time (admittedly ran a shocker yesterday off its revised mark) but they were miles clear of the rest and the step up to 3 miles has clearly brought about some improvement in the selection. Today it has been given a 40 day break to get over those exertions and is faced with optimal conditions (fast ground on a sharp flat track) so we can expect a big run despite the extra 12lbs from the handicapper. The opposition is a bit thin on the ground and of these I have strong doubts about Edeiff over the trip. It is 12 years old now and despite looking to retain plenty of ability in its last 2 starts I believe that this horse is better over 2M 4F or 2M 5F. Dennis the Legend has only ran in Hunter Chases apart from its last run, where it was comfortably beaten by Edeiff, Classic Clover is back on a winning handicap mark, but the form of its wins don't amount to much and it is a very hit and miss performer that has shown nothing recently to suggest it can win today. Of the rest, Joe Deane had the race run to suit last time and has a poor record overall, and is 13 years of age so surely can't be improving, Alcatras is held by some of the aforementioned on bits of form and the rest are hard to fancy off their current marks/form.

I think this should run a big race and at 5/2 or bigger it represents a value price.

Good luck