Ascot Or Punchestown

Most punters will be getting stuck in to the cards at Ascot and Punchestown today with some high class racing on offer at both venues. As the season progresses we will look more and more and the decent flat turf meetings, but for today we've stuck with the all weather card at Kempton. We've had a good look through two of the races in particular on offer this evening and come up with a bet in the first race on the card.

Detailed below is our analysis for each of the runners:-

Watchmaker - Has been running well over this sort of distance and is closely match with Formidable Guest but we believe it probably needs to come down the weights a bit before winning again.

Cinematic - Racing today off its highest winning mark and we feel the horse would be better off back somewhere like Lingfield. This one could possibly race prominently and contribute towards ensuring a strongly run race.

Hanbrin Bhoy - Has won here over 7 furlongs and at Lingfield over a mile. Not been seen for over a year so needs to prove well being and that he can cope with the step up in trip.

Formidable Guest - As the trade paper says she is a model of consistency, she seems to give her best every time she runs (not quite enough for us when we backed her though). Closely matched with Watchmaker but we think she is, like Watchmaker, high enough in the weights for now.

Balnagore - Spotlight in the trade paper says "one to keep an eye on" but we do not think this is one to have any money on! Drawn well this is another possible prominent runner but we'll pass on this given the form shown to date and the trainers poor record on the all weather (including at this course).

Zero Cool - Has been running in sellers and claimers without showing sufficient form to suggest he can win this.

Ross Moor - One victory on the all weather, in a maiden over a longer trip, and poor recent form make this one easy enough to pass on.

Lytham - Three victories at this track in recent weeks have seen this one take a hike in the weights. Winning run started off 46, now running off 60. Others preferred.

That leaves us with a shortlist of two, namely Bramalea and Sky Quest.

Bramalea finished in front of Formidable Guest (unfortunately) at Wolverhampton and we think she is entitled to confirm the form. A decent run just over a week ago at Bath with todays jockey on board will see this one at the front end of the market. Whilst we think Bramalea could go well, we don't think there's much value in the price and we are slightly worried about how effectively she'll see out the trip if they go a good clip. That leaves us with our selection:-

650 Kempton - SKY QUEST 1 point each way at 8/1 with Hills (BOG on line) and BlueSQ, generally 7/1 elsewhere.

Our selection has a good record at this venue and with todays jockey on board. We don't think this distance is a negative, but if they go a decent pace that would definitely add to confidence given that the horse has won over a furlong further. The trainer stats for this time of year are hardly a negative, we just have to forgive the horse its last run (where it was eased after meeting trouble in running). At 11 years of age the horse can hardly be described as an unexposed improving type but we think the odds on offer represent value, hence our decision to get involved. We will still need luck in running which is why we have kept stakes to the minimum.

We looked at one other race later on the card at Kempton where there is a strong contender with course and distance form, back in the hands of a proper jockey, up against others with form we found hard to evaluate. We can understand why punters would side with the proven form as that is the approach we prefer, but we couldn't dismiss enough of the other runners to warrant a bet in the race.

Good luck if you are getting involved today and especially if you back our selection. The chances of a bet tomorrow are slim but one of us will post on here tonight with an update.