Well finally we have some racing which I consider worth watching and I have a bet to start the meeting off with.
2PTS EW - Mighty Man - 2.00 Aintree (9/2 available generally, although Bet365 offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3 so use them if possible)
It's the opening day of the Grand National meeting tomorrow and I can't wait. Heading off down there first thing in the morning and if the weather stays decent it should be a cracking day!
On to the racing, and I'm very keen on the selection, Mighty Man. This does have the look of a classic bet to nothing and the fact that we can get odds against on it being in the first 3 (Bet 365) when I make it a 1/2 shot, makes this a must play race. The horse has ran 3 times at Aintree at this meeting and has won each time, including twice in this race. The horse clearly loves the place and the fast ground is exactly what it needs.. On official ratings this is 2nd best behind Big Bucks, and in receipt of 8lbs, I believe it has a much better chance than the odds suggest of turning it over. The favourite put up a scintillating performance at Cheltenham and could go on to become the best stayer we have seen for a long time but I don't think it is bomb-proof tomorrow. The ground will be as quick as it will have encountered (all previous runs have been with cut in the ground with the exception of its win last year in a novice chase) and I also think this is an out and out stayer which might find things happening a bit quick. Obviously it has a good chance but at odds on I'm not interested. Mighty Man won this event by 13 lengths in 2007 before breaking down when sent off a short priced favourite at Punchestown. It was then sidelined until reappearing at Cheltenham this year when it ran a remarkable race to be 5th, beaten 28 lengths. When you consider that it had several of tomorrows rivals behind it and is better off at the weights with all bar one (same terms), and was almost certainly being primed for Aintree, then this has to be backed. I could keep mentioning bits of form with others in the race, which give MM the clear beating of them, but I'm catching an 8am train and I need to sleep in between so I'll leave it at that!!
My only reservation (and reason for not having a stronger bet on it) is the 'bounce factor'. It is quite a regular occurence, for a horse that has been off the track for a significant amount of time, to run a shocker next time out and I would have liked to have seen it given a little more time to recover. However there is no guarantee that this will happen so I'm happy to get involved. All things being equal this is a tremendous value bet and if it turns up anywhere near its best, it will surely place and should give the favourite plenty to think about.
There is a possibility of another bet tomorrow, but tonights prices don't really meet the price I was hoping to achieve, however if it drifts at all in the morning then Mick will text it through!
All the best!
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5 comments:
Hi Gags,
I know you like EW betting mate and I understand the reasons for this: I also appreciate that this race looks like a perfect EW race. However, I am not convinced that Mighty Man is a good EW selection…
By my reckoning, a peak form Might Man would just about win this race – he would certainly be vying for favouritism to do so. Therefore, if he’s back to his best, 5/1 is a cracking bet (and is quite possibly worth the risk).
However, he broke down so badly at Punchestown 2 years ago, there were fears for his life. There was no expectation that he would make it back onto the track – let alone compete again at this level.
The way I see it, he has either fully recovered from his injury and therefore wins today – or he’s not and is therefore unplaced or even pulls up…
I acknowledge that there is a possibility that he’s fully recovered and Big Bucks is still too good for him: or that he’s recovered but isn’t quite as good as he once was – but IMO, these are less likely scenarios (I’d want over even money on them).
Ultimately, you have to do what you feel comfortable with – but for me today, Mighty Man is either a win bet or no bet…
A.
I put this up as on the blog as a possible for the World Hurdle (@ 50/1 E/W betfair) but to be honest I dont think Sam Thomas was the man for the job but he did go well for a long way to give encouragement for this.
Now reunited with Richard Johnson who has rode him for all but 2 outings, and the recent run under the belt I think we have a serious chance to collect today!
Regards NoseAhead!
I think we can take from that, that Mighty Man is pretty much back to his best - but Big Bucks is an exceptional horse ! That's 3 times this year I've under-estimated big Bucks !! I still reckon Kasbah Bliss will have him next year ;)
A.
Hi Andrew,
My reasons for getting involved were that aside from Big Bucks I couldn't see any of the others finishing in front of Mighty Man, and as it turned out I was spot on. If I could have a bet like this every day I would give up my career as a porn star and concentrate on winning decent money!!! TBH I thought this was bordering on the best value bet for some time but my enthusiasm was tempered somewhat by the possibility of the 'bounce factor'. As you know this doesn't always apply and clearly MM was somewhere near back to its best but I still maintain that BB would have beaten it regardless of the mistake at the last.
I know exactly where you are coming from but on this occasion I thought it represented terrific value and that has proved to be the case.
hi did not no you where a porn star gags keep up the good work let it go
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