I think we made the right decision to swerve Lingfield this afternoon. It just looked a bit too tough to me and I couldn't rule out enough of the runners in the races I would normally look to play in.
This evening at Wolverhampton we are having one bet. In the 9.5 furlong Class 5 Handicap the market has the Vaughan horse, Supercast, in as the short-priced favourite at around the 5/2 mark. I agree the horse has a chance but I couldn't back it at that sort of price. Looking through the various runners it seems to me that they'll be a fair bit of pace on in this event, with a few of these likely to be ridden prominently. I think that could help set the race up for a hold-up performer. If you're looking for a solid hold-up horse with a decent record over course and distance then look no further than
850 Wolverhampton - FORMIDABLE GUEST 1 point each way at 5/1 (Stan James and Hills, both best odds guaranteed, Ladbrokes and Tote)
On the clock I think the two most likely winners of the race are the top weight, New Star, and our selection. To back the top one you'd have to forgive a poor performance last time out and be satisfied that he's not going to get too involved up front with one or two of the other likely prominent runners. Of the others I have a question mark against Follow The Flag with regards to the trip, he might see it out but I wouldn't pay to find out, and Enlist could come on for his recent run over c and d but he'll have to to be involved here. For me the really solid one is the selection and I think he's odds on to be in the frame and with the trainer / jockey having an eye catching strike rate here and this being the jockeys only ride of the night, I think 5/1 represents a bit of value.
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