Good, Good, Better And Not So Good

What with everything else going on (yes we have to work and try and fit in a family life alongside the punting) I've only just realised that we've come to the end of another month. I think the headline accurately sums up the year so far for us. A decent enough first two months where I was still finding my feet, particularly with regards to staking, followed by a cracking March and a disappointing April.

Naturally we would love to achieve something similar to March every month but I don't think that's realistic. We know we're going to have bad spells and that we're going to have losing periods, no matter how selective we are. As many have said before, horses are not machines and any number of factors can contribute towards a horse running a bad race. If we can look back at the end of the year and find April was our worst month then we'd take that with no questions asked.

If you are following us with your own money and having the same bets as us please be realistic. As April has shown, even a selective approach is no guarantee of profits in a short-term period. We believe our approach will help minimise the damage when we have a bad run, but we cannot promise not to have losing spells, no-one can.

Fridays cards look interesting and we'll be doing everything we can to find a winner or two so that we can start the new month off in positive fashion. Despite the small losses experienced in April we're still on target to achieve our goals for the year.

Good luck if you are betting today.

Thursday

Earlir today we suggested that we were unlikely to be betting on Thursday and that's the way it has turned out. The cards look pretty unappealing on the whole.

We played in one race today but unfortunately there was not the strong pace we were hoping for. In fact I think they went pretty slowly and the race, in terms of form, is best forgotten. With no real pace to the race over this trip our selection was never going to get in to things. I know some will say the drift in the price on our selection said it all but I've won on plenty of money on drifters and seen hundreds of well backed horses get beaten over the years, so the market doesn't really concern me that much.

I noticed in the Racing Post today that they are making great mention of the fact that Pricewise Extra has achieved a 29.8% profit on investment on their selections. That is an impressive figure although it's over a relatively short period of time. It made me check our figures on here and it amused me to see that we have achieved an almost identical figure in terms of profit on investment. As I said before, it's far too early in the year for these figures to really mean anything, but I still find it amusing nonetheless.

Have a good day on Thursday if you are getting involved. Our next action is likely to be on Friday and Gags will be back on here with any news.

Ascot Or Punchestown

Most punters will be getting stuck in to the cards at Ascot and Punchestown today with some high class racing on offer at both venues. As the season progresses we will look more and more and the decent flat turf meetings, but for today we've stuck with the all weather card at Kempton. We've had a good look through two of the races in particular on offer this evening and come up with a bet in the first race on the card.

Detailed below is our analysis for each of the runners:-

Watchmaker - Has been running well over this sort of distance and is closely match with Formidable Guest but we believe it probably needs to come down the weights a bit before winning again.

Cinematic - Racing today off its highest winning mark and we feel the horse would be better off back somewhere like Lingfield. This one could possibly race prominently and contribute towards ensuring a strongly run race.

Hanbrin Bhoy - Has won here over 7 furlongs and at Lingfield over a mile. Not been seen for over a year so needs to prove well being and that he can cope with the step up in trip.

Formidable Guest - As the trade paper says she is a model of consistency, she seems to give her best every time she runs (not quite enough for us when we backed her though). Closely matched with Watchmaker but we think she is, like Watchmaker, high enough in the weights for now.

Balnagore - Spotlight in the trade paper says "one to keep an eye on" but we do not think this is one to have any money on! Drawn well this is another possible prominent runner but we'll pass on this given the form shown to date and the trainers poor record on the all weather (including at this course).

Zero Cool - Has been running in sellers and claimers without showing sufficient form to suggest he can win this.

Ross Moor - One victory on the all weather, in a maiden over a longer trip, and poor recent form make this one easy enough to pass on.

Lytham - Three victories at this track in recent weeks have seen this one take a hike in the weights. Winning run started off 46, now running off 60. Others preferred.

That leaves us with a shortlist of two, namely Bramalea and Sky Quest.

Bramalea finished in front of Formidable Guest (unfortunately) at Wolverhampton and we think she is entitled to confirm the form. A decent run just over a week ago at Bath with todays jockey on board will see this one at the front end of the market. Whilst we think Bramalea could go well, we don't think there's much value in the price and we are slightly worried about how effectively she'll see out the trip if they go a good clip. That leaves us with our selection:-

650 Kempton - SKY QUEST 1 point each way at 8/1 with Hills (BOG on line) and BlueSQ, generally 7/1 elsewhere.

Our selection has a good record at this venue and with todays jockey on board. We don't think this distance is a negative, but if they go a decent pace that would definitely add to confidence given that the horse has won over a furlong further. The trainer stats for this time of year are hardly a negative, we just have to forgive the horse its last run (where it was eased after meeting trouble in running). At 11 years of age the horse can hardly be described as an unexposed improving type but we think the odds on offer represent value, hence our decision to get involved. We will still need luck in running which is why we have kept stakes to the minimum.

We looked at one other race later on the card at Kempton where there is a strong contender with course and distance form, back in the hands of a proper jockey, up against others with form we found hard to evaluate. We can understand why punters would side with the proven form as that is the approach we prefer, but we couldn't dismiss enough of the other runners to warrant a bet in the race.

Good luck if you are getting involved today and especially if you back our selection. The chances of a bet tomorrow are slim but one of us will post on here tonight with an update.

Plenty Of Opportunities

During the coming weeks and months there will be plenty of opportunities to bet with value on our side what with day and evening meetings now becoming the rule rather than the exception. Despite having had a good look at a couple of races today we don't feel we have enough of an edge to justify a bet, so we won't be getting involved.

Sometimes it can be hugely frustrating to put in all that effort, form study and analysis only to come to the conclusion that the best thing to do is to not to bet. However, that has to be better and more rewarding than backing one you shouldn't have got involved with, hasn't it?

So with some tricky racing on offer and the weather playing games with the going we're happy enough to sit out and bide our time. As we all know, the bookies have to play in every race, we don't.

There are a number of interesting races on offer tomorrow from Ascot to Pontefract and then Kempton in the evening. Bearing in mind what I've just said about playing a cautious game when the weather is as it has been lately I would think the most likely chance of a bet would be at Kempton, but we shall see.

Keen To Get Involved But..........

We were very keen to get involved in a race at Lingfield today and whilst we believe that there is mileage in opposing a few at the front of the market, ultimately we couldn't find anything strong enough to put on the account. There were one or two small negatives with our preference and we have decided that they were sufficient to give it a miss. There is one race of interest at Nottingham this evening and if we have anything Mick will be back on here by 18.30hrs.

Nothing Strong Enough

As Gags said earlier we were considering betting in a couple of races this evening. With the going change at Windsor we're happy to pass on anything running there tonight so that left us with the possibility of a bet at Southwell. We both agreed that the final race on the card was the interesting one and we both had pretty much the same horses on our shortlist. Sounds good so far doesn't it? We also agreed on which one we think is the most likely winner, which one we think is the solid place horse and which one looked overpriced. The final piece of our analysis is always to decide and agree upon a price at which we're happy to back our idea of the most likley winner. Unfortunately this evening our idea of a value price and the odds being offered by the bookies are too far apart so our week starts off quietly with a "no bet today".

As ever, good luck if you are playing. We've got one race of interest to check out for tomorrow so Gags will be back on here in the afternoon if we're betting.

Maybe Something Later!!!

We looked at a couple of races last night and there is a possibility that we may be getting involved later on. One of the reasons for holding off with any selections at this stage is due to the strong possibility of some ground changes as the country seems to be getting a fair amount of rain today. Clearly we want to assess the underfoot conditions at Windsor before investing our cash and therefore the sensible thing is to wait and see before going any further.

There is a horse which we believe is well overpriced and this will be displayed under the trading places section. There has been a litle bit of money for it in the last hour or so but its still available at 25/1 with Hills and we can see it starting much shorter. The horse in question is Trachonitis in the 18.25 Windsor, and whilst its too speculastive to be an account bet, it does look a fair bit overpriced and we will be looking to trade a few quid out of it later on.

If there is anything from us for this evening it will be posted up by 6pm.

Good luck!

We Do Like To Be Beside The Seaside

Decent weather today and racing just down the road from me at Brighton, but nothing of any interest from a punting point of view.

We've made a profit this week and that is always welcome, but it really is a case of "what could have been". We've certainly been ahead of the market more often than not, but that in itself is not enough. A number of people have contacted us to say they are particularly pleased with the analysis that we usually put up and that they are impressed with our approach. One or two of these comments have been posted and they are appreciated.

We seem to be reading races pretty well at the moment and hopefully that will continue for a long time to come. We just need to pick out a few more winners from our shortlists and the profit figure will quickly grow and our targets will be achieved.

The summaries are detailed below:-


WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
3 PLACED (60%)
PROFIT / LOSS +0.40 POINTS


YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
75 BETS
15 WINNERS (20%)
29 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +52.86 POINTS


So, a small profit on the week and that is always better than a loss, but we've been more satisfied by the fact that all of our selections have run decent races. As we've said before, it's one thing to identify a horse that could run well but another thing totally to back them when they do. The fact that the majority of horses we back run their race and at least finish placed is a clear vindication of our disciplined and selective approach. I'm out on the road again tomorrow but Gags will update on here by early afternoon if we are betting on Monday.

Another Profitable Day

A profit on the day although we had of course hoped for much more than we've had to eventually accept. I shouldn't be greedy but I can't help it! Strangely the price of 20/1 on Stevie Thunder was held by one bookie until a few minutes before the opening show from the course, despite the fact that shorter prices were being traded on the exchanges. The "arbers" must have had a field day along with the traders as the horse eventually went off at 12/1!

I have spent a fair bit of time on the evening card at Wolverhampton but I can't find anything of interest, let alone value. So that's it for today, we'll be back on here early Sunday afternoon if we're betting tomorrow.

Anyone Fancy A Lay?

A relatively busy day for us with two selections so far and they could hardly be more different, could they? We see the first as our idea of the most likely winner with questions concerning whether or not the favourite will be suited by the way race will be run and see out the trip effectively enough to win today. Our second selection runs in a far more competitive looking race but it has a decent record of running well fresh and we believe it's over priced.

345 Sandown - VIRTUAL 2 points win at 3/1 (generally available)

450 Sandown - STEVIE THUNDER 1 point each way at 20/1 (Bet365 BOG), 16/1 elsewhere

We have decided to put Virtual up on here at the price which is generally available although we've actually backed it at a slightly longer 100/30. The price of 4/1 with Coral, quoted by Pricewise, was never seen by us and I'm led to believe it was about for a whole seven minutes so well done if you're the lucky one who got that!

Over the last few weeks we have opposed a large number of favourites, particularly on the all weather. Whilst we haven't always backed the winner of these races in almost every case the favourite has been beaten, often at a short price and often finishing out of the places. We have been asked to highlight as many of these "false" favourites as we can in future, even if we are not backing anything else in the race ourselves. We are happy to do so and we will include a "Laying Places" section on the right hand side of the blog for everyone to see. As has always been the case, the only profits shown on here will continue to be those generated by the horses we are backing. If people make money trading and laying some of these other horses that we've highlighted then good for them.

Let's hope we get a couple of decent runs for our money this afternoon. I will be back on here later if we're betting at Wolverhampton this evening. Good luck if you're playing today.

Watching Brief.......

Today has been one of those days when we’ve simply run out of time. As most people reading this blog will know, we both have full-time jobs and families which compete with racing for our time. Our strategy dictates that we will not bet unless we’ve both independently identified the same horse as the most likely winner and that the chosen beast is available at we believe to be a value price. Today only one of us has had time to complete the analysis, therefore we will not be betting.

As some of you will have already guessed the race we have looked at is the extended mile Class 6 Handicap due off at 445pm. Initially this looked a tricky race, but after more in depth analysis one of us ended up with a “first” shortlist of four and then eventually with two likely candidates. Normally at this stage whichever one of us has completed our analysis would simply wait for the other one to catch up, for want of a better expression. Then, and only then, if we agreed on the final one or two we would discuss our “tissue” prices and agree a plan of attack.

As an example, yesterday we made Street Devil a 4/1 chance, meaning we’d be happy to back the horse at a minimum of 5/1. At that price we’d have bet 1 point each way, but because far greater odds were available in the morning we increased our stakes to take advantage of the extra value we felt we were getting. That doesn’t mean it’s true to say that “the bigger the price, the more value, therefore the bigger the bet”. If we make a horse a 10/1 chance and that is the price available then there is no value at all in backing it as far as we are concerned.

Back to today’s race and since we haven’t both completed the analysis, we haven’t discussed prices and staking, we can hardly turn around now and get stuck in, can we? For a bit of amusement and to see if we’ve dodged a bullet or potentially missed a winner, the two horses on the one shortlist were Lend a Grand and Sarwin. Hopefully we’ve missed a bullet and the race turns out to be the tricky affair we initially thought it was. We’ve heard good words for three others in the race, namely Fine Ruler, Bermacha and Kirstys Lad, so whatever happens someone is going to miss out!

So, no bet for us today but tomorrow looks like it could be fairly busy with three or four races of interest already identified. Good luck if you play today.

Possibly A Bet Later At Wolverhampton

We may be betting later on today and if we are then details will be posted on here by about 4pm.

In the meantime we thought one or two of you might like to see a statistical breakdown of how we've performed at the different all weather tracks. We have had just two bets at the currently shut down Great Leighs and they were both placed so they will not make a difference either way to the overall figures. Personally I expected Lingfield and Kempton to be our weakest set of results but when we looked at things last night that did not prove to be the case.

Wolverhampton
14 Bets
4 Winners
4 Placed
6 Unplaced
57% of bets at least placed, 28% winners

Kempton
15 Bets
3 Winners
4 Placed
8 Unplaced
47% of bets at least placed, 20% winners

Lingfield
10 Bets
3 Winners
2 Placed
5 Unplaced
50% of bets at least placed, 30% winners

Southwell
14 Bets
4 Winners
5 Placed
5 Unplaced
64% of bets at least placed, 28% winners

Looking at the above shows there is no considerable bias towards or against any of the tracks as far as our results are concerned. Of course this is only a short-term sample covering the last three or four months, but with the average price of winning bets at 13/2 I think we'd all agree that more of the same would be fantastic.

Good luck if you're playing today and we'll be back later with any news by 4pm.

Tonight At Southwell

Two selections tonight on the fibre sand and I'm pleased to say both ran well (and traded very short for those of you in to that kind of thing). I think we were proved right again in taking on a number of rivals at the front of the market in both races. Okay, we didn't back the winner of either race but we certainly gave the eventual winners chances and we at least matched or beat the market in terms of value about our selections. If we can keep finding these types of races, with horses to oppose at the front of the market, then we will enjoy huge success.

We said we thought there might be money for one of our selections but the eventual sp was astonishing. We backed Street Devil this morning at big prices but it will go on the blog at 8/1, the same price as Rawdon, as that was the generally available price with those firms offering best odds guaranteed at the time the email and text messages were sent out. Not that the concession was required in this instance with Street Devil attracting money all the way down to a crazy sp of 11/4.

With both selections running well and reaching the places we've made a small profit today but more pleasing was that our analysis was pretty much spot on again.

There is just one race of interest for us to look at on the cards tomorrow. As usual Gags will post on here by early afternoon if we are betting.

Some Action This Evening.......

It’s a busy day for us today and we are going to have strong bets in two races this evening at Southwell. The bets are:

2PTS EW Rawdon - 6.20 Southwell (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Bet365, 15/2 with Blue Square , 7/1 generally)

2PTS EW Street Devil - 6.50 Southwell (available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes, 9/1 with Corals and Blue Square , 8/1 generally)

Ok so the reasoning behind the bets. The 2 selections are both well overpriced in our opinion and represent very good value at the available prices.

6.20 Southwell

After spending a while on this race we both managed to quickly whittle it down to 3 or 4 possible winners. On a recent form line involving They All Laughed and Rawdon, when they finished 1st and 2nd over C & D, TAL should strictly confirm the form on 1lb worse terms. However Rawdon was in front a long way from home that day and after getting TAL off the bridle and looking the likely winner, it was worn down in the closing stages. When you look back through Rawdons past form it is clearly a horse with lots of ability and has put up some very impressive performances on the clock over this C & D, however all its best runs have coincided with a strong pace where it has been produced late. The presence of Stringsofmyheart in the field should ensure that there is a decent pace on this evening and hopefully Rawdon will get a good tow along. Of the others, Elk Trail has been campaigned over much shorter trips and remains winless and despite the fact that it has won a couple of weak hurdle races this winter, there is no guarantee that the trip will suit. Onemoreandstay has possibilities and has won over 11 furlongs over the course, but that was in a weak race and despite looking at though it should appreciate the step up, the horse has a bit to find on the formbook. Somersturn could be anything and being trained by Barney Curley there is every chance that this may be heavily punted considering that it is 19lbs lower than when it was last of 10 over C & D in January! This horse had some fair form in Germany before coming to this country but on all form to date we couldn’t recommend backing this at the current price. Intersky Charm has form but at shorter trips and the rest are either well out of the handicap or have no worthwhile form in the book. Overall it will be very disappointing if Rawdon isn’t thereabouts and if it runs to its best it has a good chance of winning and 8/1 looks too big.

6.50 Southwell

This race is a little more competitive but the one horse which stands out is the selection. Street Devil has only ran once over C & D and it recorded an excellent time carrying 9st 12lbs when winning a maiden. It has since ran at Bath on Good/Firm ground over 10 furlongs on Tuesday and after making the running it was headed inside the last 2 furlongs. There are a couple of reasons for wanting to be with this horse today, firstly the sire Street Cry has an incredible record with his prodigies at Southwell, indeed from 12 runs they have produced 8 wins at a strike rate of 66%. The horse is clearly at home on the surface and the jockey booking of Darryl Holland (won on it last time) is a massive eyecatcher, as he goes to Southwell for just one ride. We don’t believe that this horse needs to front run but expect it to be prominent and hopefully things will pan out that way. Of its rivals, White Deer is likely to be well backed after running a good race at Thirsk last week but despite it dropping to an attractive looking handicap mark it has always appeared to want a sharp 7f on fast ground and has not really got any C & D form in the bag. We expect this to make the running along with My Paris, who is also attractively weighted on its best form, but is likely to need the run and seems to perform best in August/ September. Having A Ball is up in the weights for winning lower class races, All In The Red needs a lifetime best to win and is arguably better over a longer trip, Barataria has a chance but looks on a stiff enough mark, Ours is an in and out performer and on the clock needs to improve to beat the selection, Paraguay is likely to strip fitter for the run and has a bit to find on previous C & D runs, Hilbre Court and West End Lad are closely matched on some pieces of C &D form but are both up in class and look to be on high enough marks, and Flying Squad looks almost impossible to fancy. Over all we made Street Life a 4/1 chance here and at 9 or 10/1 is definitely worth a strong bet. This horse could be the subject of a gamble today and hopefully the horse won’t let us down!

Good Luck!

Nothing This Afternoon........

We looked at a couple of races at Epsom today and came to the conclusion that they were just far too competitive. We thought that Kavachi (4.05 Epsom) may trade shorter than its current 12/1 price but its a very trappy race and its hard to rule enough of them out.

Yesterdays selection ran a decent race without being good enough, but a furlong or so out it looked as though it would collect a place at least. The race pretty much panned out as we expected and whilst we were obviously hoping it would stay on all the way to the line, there were valid reasons for taking on some at the front end of the market and this proved spot on, but no excuses on the day!

There is a possibility of something this evening and one of us will be back by 6pm if we're playing.

Do We Learn By Our Mistakes?

I’m sure we’d all like to learn by our own, or even better still by other peoples mistakes. Whilst we’ve backed a number of horses this year which have gone on to win in their next couple of runs, we’ve never actually been on them at the time. Some would say that’s our mistake, we take the view that under normal circumstances we prefer to give any selection one chance to prove us right. If the selection doesn’t “do the business” for us then we tend to leave them alone after that rather than follow them over a cliff. Too many punters get caught out chasing well handicapped horses and by the time they manage a win the punters have only got back what they’ve previously lost anyway.

We have decided to play in one race today and given the opening paragraph of this thread one or two of you may already have worked out what we’re doing. Once again we’ve decided to play on the sand and as with our last selection our chosen venue is Kempton. In our opinion the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap is not as competitive as some might think. We believe there a very valid reasons for taking on one or two at the front of the market. Our analysis can be seen below:-

Checklow – finished in front of Samarinda last time out in a better race than this. We believe the way the race was run suited Checklow and there is no guarantee that he’ll perform as well today. He could “bounce”, he could meet trouble in running, the race might not be run at the strong pace we think he needs over this distance, he’s a pound worse off with that rival and above all else he’s the wrong price at 9/4. We’re happy to take on this one today.

Wintercast – Right now everyone in the world wants to be with the trainer of this horse. We put up one of his to win for us on Friday, but the cat is definitely out of the bag now and as a result some of his horses are going off at artificially low prices for what they’ve actually achieved. That last point is the key here. On what this horse has actually achieved it is not a 9/2 shot to win this race, but that is the price with one firm. On what the horse has achieved, after a 531 day absence and at the price we have to take this on.

L’Hirondelle – Needs to improve on what he’s achieved so far to win this. His defeat over c and d in a similar event in January leaves him with a bit to find. His next time out victory was pleasing on the eye but at Lingfield in a weaker event.

Vainglory – There has been a fair bit of support for this one today, but in our view he’ll possibly come on for the run and would need to be in top form to win from a difficult draw. Once again another we can’t side with on form in the book.

The Snatcher – We simply don’t think this one is good enough. Looking at previous c and d performances we cannot see The Snatcher finishing in front of our selection if they run to form.

Tartan Gigha – We think this one will struggle to win this type of event off its current mark unless the others allow it a soft lead. We think our selection should have that possibility covered.

Dubai Dynamo – Another one making its seasonal reappearance but we think this one would be better off over a shorter trip.

Southandwest – The trip is our main concern with this one as well. The horse also looks to be on a high enough mark.

Aflaam – There seems to be a few quid floating around for this one but what has it actually achieved? A win in a Thirsk Class 4 maiden on good to soft ground in a none-too-special time. The previous run in a Newmarket maiden was arguably a better performance and the horse is unexposed, but we cannot back this type today. First time out from stall one is a big ask in our opinion.

Ballinteni – A decent draw and running off a winning mark, but record over the distance doesn’t inspire confidence. Hard to see this one finishing in front a few of these, not least of all our selection.

This leaves us with our selection and bet today:-

420 Kempton – SAMARINDA 2 points each way at 6/1 (generally available including BOG firms), 13/2 Sky Bet

So for the first time this year we have decided to back a selection for its next run following on from a defeat. Last time out we backed Samarinda and I have to be honest and say I expected the horse to be held up. I don’t blame the jockey for making the running. In fact I think he did the right thing given that there was no pace on early. Where I think he got it wrong is he went off too fast, that’s why he was swamped late on and just failed to hang on for the place. A couple of further points to make. That was a better race than this in terms of what many of the runners had already achieved going in to the race. I think if you check subsequent form you’ll also find it has been franked. Today Samarinda has the perfect draw and I’d expect the jockey to take up a fairly prominent position, if not make the running. However, this time I’d like to think he’d be more than capable of getting the fractions right. So we can see how this race could be run to suit our selection, we know he is capable in this grade, off this mark, over this course and distance and we can make a case for opposing a number of the other runners. The final piece of the puzzle to slot in to place is the price he can be backed at which is not far off three times that of the favourite at the time of writing out this analysis. Regardless of the outcome we believe we have placed a value bet on a live contender and we’re happy with that.

A Different Way To Play

A hell of a lot of racing on offer today, particularly for a Monday. We've concentrated on three races but still not come up with anything we consider worthy of a bet. As we've said many times before, we feel happiest when playing the waiting game. There are loads of punters who get involved daily but I just don't see how they can do it and make it pay. With the amount of racing on now, how can anyone keep up to speed with the different codes, (flat turf, all weather and jumps), as well as the different types of races within each code? To work through all the contrasting types of form and carry out the necessary analysis is tough enough when looking at one or two races from the same code over similar distances. To do that successfully for different codes, distances and on different surfaces would be impossible. I know I wouldn't fancy it even if I was punting full-time.

I have a number of books written by punters who claim to be and I guess are recognised as having been very successful at making money from this game we play. Every now and then I refer back to some of the passages within them and the one message which seems to eminate from all of them is "specialise". I guess anyone can pick winners short-term, I guess pretty much anyone can identify well handicapped horses, but is that what making a consistent, long term profit is all about? I don't think so. I know a few people who trade on the exchanges and they could never be successful backers because they have a completely different mindset. One or two of them have never had accounts with bookmakers, so they don't understand the psychology of betting in that way. They spot horses which are going to be backed and they trade them for free bets or a profit. That's great and I hope and trust they enjoy what they do, but try and have a conversation with them about getting proper bets on or the importance of confidence and the negative influence that losing runs can have on many backers and they just don't understand.

In my opinion punters wishing to be successful need to specialise in order to become experts at what they do. If you are an expert you have an edge. Whether that be via trading, laying or backing. We believe we can identify enough opportunities each year to make this game really profitable for us. We hope we don't have too many long losing runs. The way we play should ensure that something like 50% of our selections are at least placed, so we are regularly generating a return of some kind.

Many punters (and tipsters for that matter) talk and sometimes shout about the average price of their selections. What a load of bollocks that is! It doesn't matter what price your selections are if they lose, does it? The stats that really matter are the average price of winners, the strike rate of winning bets against the number of selections overall and the return on investment. Looking at our very, very, very small sample to date I think we've had just under 70 bets and invested something like 140 points. From that we've generated our 52 points profit with just over 20% winners at an average price of around 7/1. I don't know if I'm being too optimistic but I'd settle for more of the same for the remainder of the year.

So nothing from us today. The race at Wolverhampton offered little in the way of value, the Pontefract race looked tough and whilst we were keen to take on those at the front of the market in the Windsor 8.5 furlong Class 4 Handicap we couldn't find anything strong enough for a bet.

One of our expert specialist advisors has produced our only bet of today. I'm pleased to report another winner and another 5 points added to the overall profit. This particular source has advised around 30 bets only so far this year and is over 50 points in front from average stakes of just 2 points per bet. Specialising? No, it'll never catch on, will it?

Another busy day tomorrow with five meetings, although there's only a couple of races which interest us. Gags will post on here by mid-day if we are betting on Tuesday.

Maybe Something Later.....

We looked at a couple of races at Pontefract and Wolverhampton today but there were enough doubts in both to give us reason to swerve them and wait for better opportunities.

There is one race of interest this evening at Windsor and if there is anything strong enough for the account it will be posted on here by about 6pm.

A Gamble At Lingers?

We had a pretty good look through the 10 furlong Class 4 Handicap at Lingfield and we both independently came up with the same short list with two runners on it. We also both preferred the same one of the two on the list, so a possible bet then? Well unfortunately not. Two factors dictated that we refrain from betting. Firstly we cannot achieve our minimum price on our preferred selection and secondly we are concerned about how the race will be run. There are one or two in here who would be better suited by a longer trip in our opinion. Our preferred selection would definitely be suited by a strongly run race over this c and d, but we're not sure that's going to happen today. So in the end an easy decision to say "no bet today".

Below are the weekly and year to date summaries which make much better reading now than they did a week or two ago. We're both much happier with our new method of operating. The fact that we will only bet when we have both independently come up with the same selection and when that selection is available at what we believe is the right, value price will probably mean we have fewer bets. Having said that we are heading towards a busy time of year with evening as well as daytime racing, so there may be plenty of opportunities. We'll just have to see how things develop.


WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
1 WINNER (50%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS +12.40 POINTS


YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
70 BETS
15 WINNERS (21%)
26 PLACED (37%)
PROFIT / LOSS +52.46 POINTS


On Monday there is plenty of action for punters to go at. There are a couple of races of interest for us during the afternoon, one at Pontefract and one at Wolverhampton. Then of course we have the evening card at Windsor where there are another two races for us to consider. Gags will be back on here early tomorrow afternoon with our thoughts for Pontefract and Wolverhampton. Good luck if you are playing today.

A Busy Day

Plenty of racing this afternoon but nothing at all to tempt us into a bet. Of the two we considered at Newbury and Thirsk one ran a stinker and the other was a well backed winner. Not that it matters, we didn't play and we're happy enough with that decision.

Despite having taken more time to work through tonights races of interest at Doncaster we have been unable to find anything worthy of a bet. A quiet week so far with just the two bets, but you never know what tomorrow might throw up. Proper racing back at "leafy" Lingfield and at least a couple of races for us to get stuck in to in the morning.

One of us will update the blog by lunch time if we find anything strong enough for a bet.

Group Racing At Newbury

There is some cracking racing on offer today right across the UK. Newbury serves up a decent flat card and of course there is the jump card at Ayr featuring the Scottish National.

For our part we've concentrated our efforts last night and this morning on four races, two this afternoon and two this evening. We came up with two possibilities for this afternoon, one at Newbury and one at Thirsk. We like the chances of the one at Newbury but at the prices available we're not prepared to get involved. The interesting one at Thirsk is available at a price but there are just too many doubts so once again we've decided to watch rather than play.

We need to do some more work on this evenings racing before making a final decision as to whether or not we'll be having a bet. If we decide to play we'll update on here by about 6pm.

Shame We Didn't Do The Forecast!

A very welcome return to the winners enclosure for us this evening and we're back to over 50 points profit on the year to date. Hopefully we can now push on towards our ultimate goal. I don't think we could have been more correct with our analysis of this evenings race, could we? We backed the winner, liked the second and suggested Shanafarahan would confirm form with Star Choice. The market agreed with points one and three with our selection winning at 4/1 from the early 6/1 and Shanafarahan being backed from bigger prices in to the correct price (by that I mean shorter than Star Choice). It has been a bit of a tough time for us recently but in our view we've just had one or two not run to form and we've probably pushed the boat out more than we should have done with a couple of other selections if I'm being honest.

It's great to get back to what we do best and to get the staking right as well. The all weather has been very good to us and I'm sure that will continue to be the case. So now it's just a case of carrying on that good work on both the turf and sand. I'm off to have a glass or two of wine!

One For This Evening...

There is one bet for us today:

2PTS EW Haarth Sovereign 19.40 Kempton (available at 6/1 generally including with BOG bookies)

We looked in depth at this race last night and after factoring a number of things in we came to the following conclusions:

El Diego – Despite form figures of 1,1,2 may be better off catching him later in the year. Up in class on polytrack when he may be better off on fibresand and / or over a longer trip? Wrong price at 3/1.

Shady Gloom – Never raced on surface, trainer not known for winners over this trip or with horses at the likely price.

Bassinet – Doesn’t look good enough.

Red Merlin – Respected but not convinced first time out is the right time for this one. Has never raced on the surface and there is the suspicion it may not see the horse perform to his best. Wrong price.

Ruff Diamond – On balance of form not good enough but not totally dismissed.

Sahrati – Well handicapped on winning form at up to 11 furlongs. One previous attempt over c and d was only beaten 3.5 lengths in a reasonable time. Suspect that this will come on for the run and may be better dropped back in trip.

Shanafarahan – C and D winner, in fact unbeaten at this venue, including when beating one of today’s rivals fairly easily. Difficult to see the form being turned around even allowing for revised weights. However, up in the handicap in a better race so a tougher assignment. Possible but unlikely.

Star Choice – A winner for us a while ago on a Friday evening, but that was at Wolverhampton in a weaker race. Off a higher mark and in a tougher race we don’t fancy this one to turn the form around with Shanafarahan, let alone win the race.

Haarth Sovereign – Likes it here as shown when winning handicap off 3lb lower mark here last year. Goes well fresh, that victory was first time out last year. Has proved the distance is no problem with some creditable performances in arguably better races than this. Trainer has hit the ground running this year already and has a 30% strike rate so far. If tuned up and ready to roll this looks a must for the frame and is our most likely winner.

Taking all the above analysis into account we were of the opinion that the front two in the betting, Red Merlin and El Diego were worth opposing at the respective prices of 3/1. Sahrati is undoubtedly well handicapped but it has not won over as far as this before and the first time out stats don't inspire. We would have been happy to back Haarth Sovereign at 5/1 and therefore the 6/1 available looks very generous and constitutes a decent bet.

Good luck if you're playing.

A Couple At Wolverhampton

Two races in particular came under the microscope, the Seller at 6.45 and the last on the card, a Handicap over the extended mile. I think there's one solid one and one at a price which could be interesting in the Seller, but all things considered I'll leave it alone. I'm going to put one up in the finale as a trader.

Count Trevisio is on a very attractive mark on old form. Tonight the step back in trip could help this prominent runner and I'd be surprised if this doesn't go off at a shorter price than is currently available and / or trade shorter in running.

Good luck if you are getting involved

Maybe Something From Wolves Later....

We liked one in the 4.10 Newmarket today but after looking closely at the form it doesn't appear to run well fresh and is probably one for later in the season. For that reason we're happy to let it run today but there are a couple of possibilities at Wolverhampton this evening, and if there is anything of interest we will be back on here later with any selections.

3.45 Beverley

There is one bet for us today:

1PT EW Fortunate Isle 3.45 Beverley (available at 4/1 generally including all BOG bookies)

This 17 runner handicap is far less competitive than the numbers would have you believe and after looking closely at all the runners we believe that the most likely winner is Fortunate Isle.

This horse has everything in its favour today:

1) It has dropped to a mark 18lbs lower than its previous success
2) It has won over C & D and clearly relishes a stiff uphill finish over this sort of trip.
3) It is dropped into a Class 5 race for the first time after competing in Class 2, 3 & 4 races.
4) It should be fit after a winter hurdling campaign and has had a recent pipe-opener in an 8F handicap at Musselburgh where it stayed on quietly from the back over an inadequate trip.
5) It has won on firm ground before as well as softer so there should be no problems with the predicted underfoot Good/Firm conditions.
6) It has an excellent draw at a track where you have a big advantage if you're drawn high.
7) It is from a top trainer/jockey combination.
8) Its best form appears to come in Spring/early Summer so this time of year is the time to catch it

The other horse which makes some appeal and is also well handicapped is New Beginning and following a lean winter spell on the AW where it ran creditably without winning, it returned to turf with a good run at Nottingham last week where it finished 3rd. It had some minor troubles in running that day, although I don't think it cost it the race, but this horse is on a winning mark and also has a good draw. Of the rest Malinsa Blue looked interesting but has the worst draw in stall 1, although it is fairly handicapped and the jockey booking catches the eye. There are numerous reasons for opposing the others, many will need the run first time up, several are not likely to get the trip, and the others look weighted up to their best (some are just not good enough). Spotlight have identified Sirvino as a potentially well handicapped horse but on the evidence seen to date we couldn't be going anywhere near this at the forecast prices.

To conclude, we make Fortunate Isle odds on to be in the first four and agreed that 4/1 would be the minimum price we would be prepared to play at, therefore at the prices it is worthy of a 1PT each way investment.

If there is anything from Kempton this evening Mick will post it up later on.

Good luck

Quick Update

The last couple of weeks have been rather disappointing in terms of the account bets and it has led me to reflect on some of my recent selections. In hindsight I have probably been guilty of forcing bets instead of waiting for them to come to me and with the jump racing in a period of transition I have decided to concentrate my efforts on the forthcoming flat racing. The jumps racing is traditionally very difficult at this stage of the year, the ground is generally riding much faster than it has during the season and consequently horses which have been running on unfavoured ground are now back to reasonable handicap marks and the conditions are now in their favour. You could say that this represents an ideal opportunity to find some decent winners, however it is very difficult to equate the many variables involved and therefore it does tend to throw up a number of strange and unpredictable results. For these reasons I am going to look more closely at the turf stuff and working alongside Mick, we will aim to identify a select few races of interest and independently form our own conclusions. This is something that we have tried successfully on occasions in the past and when we are both in agreement we will be looking to get involved, provided the price is right. In the long term we believe that this is something that will be very successful and highly profitable and we both agree it is a step in the right direction.

In terms of todays racing there is one race of interest and assuming the price is satisfactory (it is touch and go judging by the exchanges) then we will be getting involved with one.

I'll be back in the next hour or so to update.

Our Turf Flat Season Starts Today

We have decided that now is as good a time as any to start looking at the turf flat cards properly, so that is what we'll be doing each day from now on. I will still be looking at the all weather cards and if anything of significant value can be found over the sticks then that's great, but throughout the next few months we will concentrate on the flat racing.

Starting with today at Yarmouth. A couple of races of interest, notably the last two on the card, but there is nothing that stands out to me as being of such value that we have to get involved. In fact I think the last race could be a little tighter than the current market suggests.

Whilst I've not come up with anything to back today I have put a couple up in the "Trading Places" section on the right. These are horses which I think could easily go off at shorter prices than are currently available and / or which could trade shorter in running. I'm not suggesting anyone backs them, they won't go up as selections, I've not backed them, I just think they might be worth a second glance if you're looking at playing in those races.

So the first day of our new flat turf season starts with "no bet today". Good luck if you are playing.

Luck Of The Irish And A Sign Of Things To Come....

As I said a few days ago, my good lady has skipped off to Ireland with our daughter for a few days, leaving me to fend for myself. Earlier today she called me, not to say how much they were both missing me, but to ask what I thought would win the Irish National! Not really my thing, but with numerous relatives desperate for one to back I had a quick look and sent a text over saying "I've not had a proper look but you might get some fun at huge prices out of Church Island and Rebel Chief." I then had to have a few quid on for myself. I would never have forgiven myself if either had won and I'd made nothing while the Irish side of the family celebrated courtesy of my advice. I backed both on the exchanges, the one that matters at better than 90/1. In the end I traded off and won in excess of £700 on the race, not bad for a throw away bet I would never have had if it weren't for the call from the wife!

It gets even better though. As there was no all weather racing today I had a look at a couple of the turf races, just to get my eye in. I liked the 550 at Warwick because despite the numbers a lot of the runners could be ignored over the trip of 11 furlongs. I ended up liking the look of the eventual favourite, Jackie Kiely and Sagent, with a preference for the last pair. I had already backed JK on the advice of Graeme over at www.theformanalyst.com (hope you like the plug G) so I then decided to have a few quid on Sagent and the reverse forecast as well. Sagent flashed home late to get up on the line at 16/1 and JK met all sorts of trouble in running, eventually finishing unplaced. So whilst I've not had a "proper" bet today I have made a few quid and the signs look good for the turf flat season!

Plenty To Go At On Bank Holiday Monday

There is plenty of racing around the country today as you would expect on a Bank Holiday Monday, but nothing for us to back or put up as a selection ourselves. I think we need to spend some time opening up other avenues for getting our bets on as this morning has been an absolute nightmare trying to get on one or two of the selections put up by the paid for services. Between us we've now got a number of firms who offer us next to nothing regardless of the type of race and amount we want on. I asked one firm why they didn't just tell me they weren't taking any bets off me anymore and they said "You can use the casino if you like!" Needless to say I closed the account there and then.

If anyone has knowledge of any credible bookmakers, other than those listed on oddschecker, who will take bets and preferably offer the best odds guaranteed concession then please leave details on a comment or email either of us. Thanks in advance and good luck if you're playing today.

A Game Of Fine Margins

The difference between success and failure is often a fine line, a nostril here and a short head there. When you are in the middle of a decent run the breaks seem to go your way and the opposite seems to happen when you're struggling. I'm not one to worry too much about luck, good or bad, as I believe these things will even themselves out over the course of the year. We simply have to stick to the plan. That means we keep looking for our idea of the likely winner of any chosen race and we back them when they are available at what we believe are value prices.

This week has been the worst of the year so far for us. Our paid for services have had just as tough a week as us, leading to an overall loss of about 30 points. The good news is that of course we are only losing money we've previously won and we're still miles in front. At least we should be able to get a few bets on now without too much grief!

I've had a look back at my all weather selections just to see if I'd change anything if I could, but apart from possibly one selection I really don't think I would. I'm happy that the analysis was right and the prices represented value, we've just had one or two things go against us. Of course things like this happen regularly in racing and as much as I can remember Mahadee, Cross The Line, Formidable Guest and Samarinda all getting done in close finishes for a return of one kind or another, I also remember Sgt Schultz getting up in a blanket finish to provide us with a very profitable return. As I've said before it's a game of fine margins.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
1 PLACED (20%)
PROFIT / LOSS -12 POINTS


YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
68 BETS
14 WINNERS (20%)
26 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +40.06 POINTS

There are no selections from either of us today with what looks like pretty poor stuff being served up for the punters today. We'll be back on here tomorrow with our views on the Bank Holiday cards.

One Race, Two Selections......

I like betting in races where only a few can be seriously fancied, especially if the shape of the race, the way it's going to be run and the market allow an each way bet to nothing. Only yesterday I commented about being selective and waiting for bets to come along rather than going looking for them. In some ways todays selections fit the bill but in others they don't. All things considered though, I feel we have to get involved. The race of interest is the first on the Kempton card, the 8 furlong Class 2 Handicap.

My view is that there are reasons to oppose the front five in the betting. Of course I'm not saying they can't win, just that I think there are valid reasons for taking them on. When you can find reasons to take on the front five in a 10 runner race then it becomes almost impossible not to have a bet. The reason I've backed two in the race is because I can't be absolutely sure exactly how the race will be run. I'd like to think I've got a chance either way now, with one likely to be ridden prominently and the other held up.

Extraterrestrial is the favourite in most books but I can't have it. It has been beaten by a couple of these before, is up in the handicap and the draw and jockey wouldn't give me any confidence. It's got a chance but is way too short for me and I'm advised there's another reason for taking it on. Apparently "Thommo" has tipped it up!
Cape Hawk has a cracking record here and goes well fresh but looks high enough in the weights to me and is another at too short a price for what it has achieved.
Titan Triumph does not have a good record here and is another one high enough in the handicap. This horse loves Lingfield but even on some form there is 10lbs worse off with one of todays rivals. Third favourite? Not in my book.
Cordell is the second Hannon horse in the race, likely to race prominently from a good draw, but in my opinion will have to improve upon c and d winning form to take this race. Of course he could well do that, but from a 9lb higher mark I'm happy to take him on at the prices.
Mahadee is one I backed two runs ago at Wolverhampton when he was slowly away and stayed on at the finish beaten a short head for the place money. I think he could run a decent race but his record here is not good and I'd prefer to see him back at Wolverhampton.
Opus Maximus has two unplaced efforts to his name at this venue. His best win to date was in a Class 4 Handicap at Yarmouth off a mark of 79. Racing today off 85 I am happy enough to pass on this one.
Checklow and Jack Junior have big question marks by their names in my paper. Jack Junior is rated 99 but has only a maiden win to his name and there's nothing in his recent form to suggest he can take this. Checklow could be anything and is clearly unexposed, but as I've said before I can't back horses like this. The market also seems unsure about these two. Jack Junior is the rag at 40/1 with one firm but only 25/1 elsewhere. Checklow is stranger still, as big as 20/1 in a place but as short as 8/1 with some. Make of that what you will.
That leaves me with my two selections for the race:-

205 Kempton - SALTAGIOO 1 point eachway at 8/1 (generally available, bet with BOG)
205 Kempton - SAMARINDA 1 point eachway at 16/1 (generally available, bet BOG)

I would prefer to back just one horse in any race, but sometimes there are good reasons for backing more than one. I believe that is the case today. Saltagioo has taken really well to the all weather, running two good races over course and distance. The last time out victory was a particularly impressive performance, although he beat Viva Vettori (7/2 in to 13/8 and my selection for that race) in the process! I expect Saltagioo to take advantage of a good draw and with a little improvement I can see him running a massive race.
Samarinda is the hold-up performer who would prefer a decent pace. I expect him to be dropped in from his draw and to try and pick them up in the final furlong. He holds one or two of todays rivals on bits of form, has won a Class 2 Handicap over c and d and is running off a winning mark.

If my selections run up to their best then I think they must go close and at the prices I believe they represent the value in this race. Good luck if you're playing today.

Good Friday?

Earlier this week while I carried on working my other half flew off to Ireland with our daughter to spend a week with her family. It's a nice break for both of them and of course it means I have a long weekend packed with racing, football, golf (come on Mike Weir) and possibly a couple of drinks and a game of poker. But what about today? There's not a lot going on in is there? No racing, no top quality footie and the golf isn't on the box until this evening. It's chucking it down outside so hardly encouraging me to go out and get some fresh air is it? I've already had a first look at tomorrows cards and there are a few races which could be of interest at Kempton. The remainder of my analysis will be done in the morning.

With nothing else going on this morning I started thinking a little about what we've achieved so far this year with our own betting and how we're going to achieve our targets throughout the rest of the year. Nothing too much will change because we believe in what we're doing, we believe in specialising and we believe in being selective. Incidentally, the services we subscribe to use similar approaches and all have proven track records of being profitable in the long term. No surprise then that we're something like 160 points in front after little over a quarter of the year gone and arguably the toughest time for punters. We've provided 40+ points during that time from our own selections, even allowing for our recent blip. If as expected we have the best part of the year still to look forward to then this should be a cracking year.

Looking back with hindsight I think both Gags and I agree that we've had too many bets recently. Despite both of us preferring the selective approach I think we've possibly been guilty of looking for bets rather than waiting for them to come to us. My "favourite" bets are always those I feel I just have to make because everything looks and feels right. Perhaps we have had a few bets recently where everything was not quite right but we went with them anyway. I can only speak for myself but I think it's okay to have doubts when you're backing at big prices but when you're playing on those at the other end of the market I think they need to be rock solid, bomb proof if you like. As anyone can see from the list of our bets we're not against backing at big prices. I think we've backed horses at 40/1, 33/1, 20/1 and a number of others at double figure odds. I know we've had a couple recently which haven't run to form and that will always happen. There is nothing anyone can do about that, but we've also (arguably) backed one or two which we could easily have let run.

Looking forward I expect we'll get back to being a little more selective. It's impossible to be really specific in terms of numbers because we have to bet when we think it's right to do so, but as a very rough guide I would expect the following over the long term between us:

4 - 6 BETS PER WEEK
25% WINNERS
25% PLACED
4 POINTS PROFIT

As punters we all know the game we play is never that simple. We all have purple patches (check out Anthony over at the Nose Ahead blog right now for an example of someone who is on a roll) and we all encounter losing spells (April so far for MIP). By waiting for the right opportunities rather than forcing the situation we will get back to winning ways, we will add to our profits and move closer to achieving our target for the year.

So, a good Friday? Maybe it will be after all.

One Bet Today.......

Yesterdays bet was a major disappointment and the run of Le Brocquy left me scratching my head somewhat!! It has clearly run way below form and I can only think that the blinkers have had an adverse effect on it, as it has ran nowhere near up to form. The other market rival has also ran appallingly and I have no excuses for the bet. The other selection has run a decent race and finished 2nd, with the 5/4 fav unplaced and well beaten. Not my finest hour by any means but we will move on and hopefully get back on track. Just a quick word on the price of the first selection, I am not keen on putting up 6/4 shots but on this occasion I thought it was a virtual match and I made it long odds against on it being out of the frame........just shows that they are not machines, as the two I thought it was between, finished out of the places!!

There is one bet for us today:

2PT WIN - Wednesdays Country - 2.20 Wincanton (available at 11/4 with Blue Square & 888 Sport, generally 5/2 including with all BOG bookies)

When I looked at the cards last night I made this a 6/4-2/1 chance and I was amazed when I checked first thing this morning and saw that it was 3/1 with Bet 365. The race is very uncompetitive with a number of horses who are woefully out of form or badly handicapped. The selection is an 8 year old with very few miles on the clock and it has recorded a couple of decent wins over fences on fast ground round sharp tracks. Last year it won off 79 at Southwell before being sent off a well backed favouirite to follow up at Market Rasen but it disappointed that day and perhaps was not given sufficient time between races. It then reappeared 11 months later and ran out a winner from a horse which subsequently won next time (admittedly ran a shocker yesterday off its revised mark) but they were miles clear of the rest and the step up to 3 miles has clearly brought about some improvement in the selection. Today it has been given a 40 day break to get over those exertions and is faced with optimal conditions (fast ground on a sharp flat track) so we can expect a big run despite the extra 12lbs from the handicapper. The opposition is a bit thin on the ground and of these I have strong doubts about Edeiff over the trip. It is 12 years old now and despite looking to retain plenty of ability in its last 2 starts I believe that this horse is better over 2M 4F or 2M 5F. Dennis the Legend has only ran in Hunter Chases apart from its last run, where it was comfortably beaten by Edeiff, Classic Clover is back on a winning handicap mark, but the form of its wins don't amount to much and it is a very hit and miss performer that has shown nothing recently to suggest it can win today. Of the rest, Joe Deane had the race run to suit last time and has a poor record overall, and is 13 years of age so surely can't be improving, Alcatras is held by some of the aforementioned on bits of form and the rest are hard to fancy off their current marks/form.

I think this should run a big race and at 5/2 or bigger it represents a value price.

Good luck

WTF?

As I watched this evenings race I couldn't heve been happier with the way things seemed to be working out. My selection broke well and quickly held a decent position. The jockey was even allowed to get to the front and dictate his own pace. I honestly expected to see Gazboolou stretch them and hold off the pack as they tried to close. Instead he seemed to stay still as one after the other they waltzed past him. Perhaps he "bounced", I don't know. Worse still for me is that the winner was behind him last time over c and d. In hindsight I can understand people backing the winner at the price but I really didn't think it would finish in front of my selection tonight, certainly not by a comfortable 3 or 4 lengths or whatever it was in the end.

So that's two in a row for me which have finished fourth. Brilliant! Yet again I've found short-priced favourites to oppose and they've been turned over. Unfortunately on these last two occasions I've not found the right one against the so-called talking horses. It's been a disappointing week for the two of us and particularly so today. However, our target is to achieve our profits, in excess of 150 points, over the course of the year. I've no doubt we will although there will of course be peaks and troughs, highs and lows along the way. What is it "they" say? "Horses aren't machines" and "You can't win all the time." If only!

No aw action tomorrow so I'm going to have a look at the Folkestone card. I won't be betting on it but I have to start getting my head around that green turf stuff at some stage and now seems as good a time as any.

One Selection On Wednesday Night

We're on a drifter!!

I've waited all evening and as far as prices are concerned it's been worth it. Now it's just up to the jockey and horse to do their best. My selection has been 5/2 and 11/4 all day, but my minimum price was 3/1. Now that punters have got nothing else to get stuck in to they've gone for the jolly in the "lucky last" and that's now in to 13/8. As a result my selection is on the drift and as I write this it's a 7/2 shot. As far as my own betting and the blog are concerned I've backed

920 Kempton - GAZBOOLOU 2 points each way at 3/1 (BOG)

In betting with best odds guaranteed bookies I've secured my minimum price and anything else simply represents greater value.

As it's late I'll leave the analysis and reasoning until the morning.

Right Now

I started off thinking I might be having two bets this evening at Kempton but too many questions remain unanswered in one race, so now we're down to the possibility of just one bet. I say possibility because right now I cannot get the price I want on my selection. If things stay the same then I won't be betting. So why the delay? Why not just say "no bet"? Well, last week I did just that and the one I liked drifted from as short as 5/2 out through my minimum price required of 4/1 to an sp of 7/1 before winning. I don't want that to happen again, so I'll wait and see how the market shapes up once the Kempton card is underway. Of course if I'm betting I will post on here pre-race.

A Cheeky EW Double Today!

Guys,

There is one bet today.

1PT EW DOUBLE on the following:

2.40 Hereford - Le Brocquy (available at 13/8 Paddy Power, 6/4 generally)
4.40 Hereford - Boomtown Kat (available at 7/2 with Hills & VCbet, 100/30 generally)

This bet offers fantastic terms for the punter as you are getting slightly more than your money back if they both finish in the first 3, and a nice return if they both finish first. IMO the races are both very uncompetitive, despite the large numbers of runners, and I think that something will have to go wrong with the selections for them not to be placed. I also think that they have very good chances of winning the races and for that reason this bet is worth a couple of points.

If we start with the 2.40, the race appears to be a virtual match between the selection and Noticeable and whilst Noticeable is a proven performer in this grade it will have to be on top of its game to beat Le Brocquy today at the weights. Le Brochuy was an 81 rated performer on the flat and its best form was on fast ground, however its 2 starts to date over hurdles have been on virtually unraceable ground at Plumpton, where it understandably tired in the closing stages, and last time out when it finished a close up second to a previous winner. That day it would have finished 3rd but for a penultimate flight faller, however that horse has since gone on to win a decent novice hurdle against some highly creditable opposition. The fact that the ground was probably still on the slow side for the selection and the fact that it ran pretty green and wasn't ridden with much vigour lead me to believe that it will improve significantly for the sharp track and faster ground, and also for the application of the blinkers. All in all it must go close and hard to see out of the 3.

The 4.40 is a race which again has a lot of quantity rather than quality and several of these are yet to jump a hurdle in public. The selection has finished 2nd in a fast ground bumper at Worcester last year and has only ran over hurdles twice. First time up it was in the process of running a decent race before it was badly hampered and effectively pulled up as a result, and last time it ran a storming race giving weight to a Nicky Henderson hotpot. It was beaten 1 1/2 lengths that day but they were well clear of the rest and it showed that the ground and trip will be no problem today. The winner of that race had some decent previous form and in the context of this race I believe the selection has a similar level of form to the favourite, Greenwich Meantime. GM has only had one run over hurdles and at the age of 9 is a late starter. The horse won the Chester Cup in 2007 and was a decent stayer on the flat but at a price of 5/4 it appears to be more a case of top class connections and flat form rather than what it has actually achieved over hurdles. It could be much better than the rest but happy to oppose these types with something at a more solid price. Of the rest, there are a couple of potential improvers who have never jumped a hurdle before (Aim For The Stars for one), but I'd be disappointed if the selection wasn't in the 3 if it runs somewhere near its last run.

Mick will be back on here this evening by 6pm if he has anything from Kempton.

Just a quick word about the texts and emails, we have decided that it is only worth sending these out when there is a bet or something of significance and I hope that this meets with everybodys approval.

Good luck if you play today!

I Like The Look Of A Couple

Wednesday sees the aw action switch to Kempton which provides an evening card. There are a couple of interesting races and a fair possiblity of one or two bets. As we have time on our side I won't make an early decision. As usual the prices available will dictate whether or not we get involved. One thing I can promise is that I'm not going to make the same sort of mistake which saw a 7/1 winner go unbacked last week!

Gags will be along in the morning if has anything for the afternoon and I'll post my views on Kempton by about 600pm.

No Bet Over The Jumps

I was quite keen to get involved in the 2.50 at Sedgefield today as there are several in here with no chance and a couple at the front of the market that have questions to answer. Unfortunately whilst I believe there is definitely value to be had playing in this race, there is nothing which I feel is solid enough to put on the account and for that reason I'm happy to watch. None of the other races make any appeal so we will leave it at that and hope tomorrow throws up a decent opportunity.

The Next All Weather Action

On Tuesday there is no aw racing so the next possible bet for me won't be until Wednesday evening at Kempton at the earliest. A quiet spell as far as I'm concerned but sometimes that can be a blessing in disguise. I've not started looking at the turf flat racing yet and I probably won't for a couple of weeks yet.

Nothing Of Interest Today

I had a decent look at the card at Kelso but there was very little worth getting excited about and I'm happy to just take a watching brief.

Saturdays selection ran a fair race and aside from the winner (which has stepped up markedly on anything it has shown before) the next five home were on my shortlist of six. I suppose this is of little consolation given Catch Me has finished out of the frame in fifth, but it does give some kind of indication that I was right in suggesting that this trip tends to be a specialist one!

If you take Solwhit out of the equation, all the other two milers have struggled badly and finished well beaten. I think a stronger pace would have suited my selection, and I have to admit to being a little disappointed that the likely pace angle which I had identified, has not materialised, and has to go down as a misread on my part!

Wolverhampton Monday 6th April

I've had a cracking day away from everything today. No work, no form study, just complete relaxation and I feel better for it. I didn't expect to be betting at all today but one of the paid experts put up two selections today and bingo, two winners. So a couple of phone calls and that was it. Overall the profits continue to grow and our selections are contributing nicely towards that despite the small reverse this week.

I have had a quick look at tomorrows card at Wolverhampton and I can say already that I will not be getting involved. No doubt Gags will post in the morning if he fancies anything over the sticks.

A Day For The Bookies

Looking at the results throughout the day I think it was probably quite a good day to be a layer today. We put up two selections today and I think they both ran decent enough races, unfortunately without reaching the places let alone winning. In the aw race I was keen to take on the short-priced jolly and we got that one beat. As we've said before, if we can keep finding short-priced favourites to turn over then we will make decent money long-term simply because of the value aspect. Taking a third of the book out like tonight gives us a big edge to play with so that's what we'll keep looking to do. I wasn't surprised to see New Star run a big race, but I could have been here all night and I'd never have picked out the winner and the third place finisher. So a small reverse this week with our own selections but we're still miles in front as shown in the summaries below:-

WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (40%)
PROFIT / LOSS -3.75 POINTS


YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
63 BETS
14 WINNERS (22%)
25 PLACED (39%)
PROFIT / LOSS +52.06 POINTS

I would normally post up the summaries on a Sunday but since neither of us have anything of interest tomorrow I thought I'd do it now so we can have a proper day off on Sunday!

Taking On The Favourite

I think we made the right decision to swerve Lingfield this afternoon. It just looked a bit too tough to me and I couldn't rule out enough of the runners in the races I would normally look to play in.

This evening at Wolverhampton we are having one bet. In the 9.5 furlong Class 5 Handicap the market has the Vaughan horse, Supercast, in as the short-priced favourite at around the 5/2 mark. I agree the horse has a chance but I couldn't back it at that sort of price. Looking through the various runners it seems to me that they'll be a fair bit of pace on in this event, with a few of these likely to be ridden prominently. I think that could help set the race up for a hold-up performer. If you're looking for a solid hold-up horse with a decent record over course and distance then look no further than

850 Wolverhampton - FORMIDABLE GUEST 1 point each way at 5/1 (Stan James and Hills, both best odds guaranteed, Ladbrokes and Tote)

On the clock I think the two most likely winners of the race are the top weight, New Star, and our selection. To back the top one you'd have to forgive a poor performance last time out and be satisfied that he's not going to get too involved up front with one or two of the other likely prominent runners. Of the others I have a question mark against Follow The Flag with regards to the trip, he might see it out but I wouldn't pay to find out, and Enlist could come on for his recent run over c and d but he'll have to to be involved here. For me the really solid one is the selection and I think he's odds on to be in the frame and with the trainer / jockey having an eye catching strike rate here and this being the jockeys only ride of the night, I think 5/1 represents a bit of value.

One Selection This Evening

I don't like the look of anything this afternoon at Lingfield but there is every chance I'll be backing one at Wolverhampton this evening. I'm going to have another look through the race just to make sure I'm happy with everything and I'll post my thoughts on here by about 6.30pm. Anyone on the distribution list will receive the text (and email if Gags is available) about half an hour before that.

As you all know I'm not an expert on the jumps but for anyone who is interested I have backed two for the big race today. A few weeks ago I had a few quid on Black Apalachi and Rambling Minster. Both are a lot shorter now than when I backed them so let's hope they both run races to reflect how strongly they are fancied.

The Grand National!!

Today sees the biggest and most famous steeplechase race in the world and whilst I have had a few winners in the 80's and early 90's it is not a race I have done particularly well in since. That said I had a few quid on Comply or Die last year at 16's and I've weighed in again antepost on Black Apalachi @ 25's.....I still think this has a great chance but I've also thrown a few quid at Himalayan Trail @ 33's but the race is a a bit of a lottery and requires an enormoius amount of luck in running!

As far as today is concerned I have one bet to pass on:

1pt EW Catch Me - 2.50 Aintree (available at 11/2 with PP, BSQ, Sporting & Hills, 5/1 generally)

Ok, the reasons behind the bet are:

This race has been won in 3 of the last 4 years by Al Eile, who again runs today, and this emphasises what a specialist trip 2m 4F is. The races that Al Eile has won previously have not been particularly strong affairs and I believe todays race offers the toughest assignment that this horse has faced. The race is contested by a number of horses who are either 2 milers (where they appear to need a step up in trip) or 3 milers who are dropping back in distance. The horses which I believe are truly at their best at this distance are:

Al Eile, Catch Me, FiveforThree, United, Whiteoak & Hardy Eustace

and therefore if we can eliminate a few of these then we might find the winner. I think Hardy Eustace is past his best, United and Whiteoak are probably not up to the class of this race, Al Eile is now a 9 year old and its preperation for this years race has not been without interruption, and I think it faces much stiffer opposition this year and FiveforThree has also had an interrupted preperation and needs to improve to win this. That leaves Catch Me and the profile and form of the horse looks really solid and I believe a fast run race over this C & D will be its optimal conditions. This season it has ran 4 times and recorded RPR figures in excess of 160 on 3 occasions and has been aimed at this race for some time. It finds 2 miles too sharp and a truly run 3 miles too far and I'm sure it will run a big race today. I'm not too concerned about the ground today as it has got some good pieces of form on Good ground and with a little rain overnight there should be no excuses there.

Of the other rivals, Celestial Halo ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle but it is stepped up 3 furlongs and I'm not sure that the track really plays to its strengths. Jered and Katchit both step up in trip and have chances, if they stay, but I believe that these types of horses are aimed at these races as an afterthought, as there is very little else for them to go for.

Hopefully Catch Me will run its race and make us a few quid.

Mick will send out a text later if there is anything doing on the AW but good luck and I hope you get the National winner!!!

A Touch Unfortunate?

We received a few comments this evening referring to the bad luck that Weapons Amnesty suffered in running today, and after revisiting the race a few times, I actually think we were very unlucky not to collect on at least the place part of the bet. I was happy with the way the horse travelled throughout, and it appeared to be travelling very nicely until it was badly hampered by the fall of On Raglan Road. I reckon it cost it anything from 3-6 lengths, including the momentum it lost, and Davy Russell had to roust it along for a bit to put it back into the race. Obviously this has expended some of the horses energy, and after coming back on the bridle and looming up 2 out, it has not had anything left to offer after the last. It eventually finished 5th, beaten about 5 lengths and you could say we've been a little unlucky!

As far as the result of the race goes, well I couldn't have had the 1st & 2nd at all as they were both stepping up considerably in grade and had plenty to find on the book, as well as needing to see out the trip. The fav has gone off very short and finished a whisker in front of the selection and Pride of Dulcote has finished well behind. The selection has been sent off a well backed 7/2 second favourite and I would be more than happy to have the same bet again, if they ran the race again tomorrow. A small loss on the account today but nothing to get too worried about and hopefully there will be a suitable opportunity tomorrow!

Mick has already touched on the fact that we have been receiving the odd comment which have not been complimentary, but at the end of the day if people aren't prepared to put a name to a post, we're not going to respond to it. I appreciate that this is a public blog and people are free to air their opinion, but at the end of the day nobody is telling you to back the selections, it's just an opportunity to see for yourself what Mick and I are backing. On the whole the feedback has been very positive and hopefully we can continue to keep you interested and pick a few winners.

Mick And Gags - Making It Pay

When I first started this blog a few weeks ago it was all about me and my pursuit of 100 points profit throughout 2009 via selective betting on horses. My results for the first three months of the year are posted on the right hand side for anyone to see. I was then asked to post up my thoughts, when I could, pre-race for others to view, consider and follow if they wished. In the last few weeks things have changed a little to say the least. Gags is now as much a part of this blog as I am and this venture is now all about our attempt to achieve in excess of 150 points profit for the year. Therefore, we agreed that since this is now a joint venture, the results should be shown as such. So now you will see the results on the right shown as MIP Selections rather than Micks or Gags Selections. We think this makes a lot of sense as we do discuss every selection between us before any final decision is made with regards to betting and staking (no reminders needed about yesterday thank you). Yes we have our own areas of expertise but we still work together, so we are jointly responsible and we both back all of the selections in the end in any case. If anybody really wants to know which of us puts up which selections then all they need to do is look at the relevant post.

Whilst I am not the nh expert I will give my view of todays race in which our selection finished 5th, a nostril behind the short-priced favourite. I haven't checked the time of the race but it looked to me as though it was a fairly slowly run race, particularly for the grade and I don't think that suited our selection. Weapon's Amnesty must have lost at least a few lengths as well as momentum when On Raglan Road fell in front of him and if you look at the finish he was only beaten that far by the winner, wasn't he? Without losing all that ground and momentum he wouldn't have had to use up as much energy getting back in to contention and would surely have fought out the finish. That's my opinion and no doubt many will claim I would say that wouldn't I, but I am convinced he would have beaten the favourite and in any case he finished in front of Pride Of Dulcote as Gags said he would. So the reasoning behind the bet is vindicated as far as I am concerned. In any case all we lost today was 2 points as this was just a minimum stake each way selection, so by my reckoning we're still well over 50 points in front for the year to date. I think we were a bit unlucky today but in any case we're going to back more losers than winners in the game we play.

I thought I'd make that clear because we have had one comment suggesting that we don't know what we're doing. I haven't posted and won't post the comment in full or any other abusive comments if they come along in future. Of course everyone is entitled to their opinion and the individual concerned may be proved right in the long-term about whether or not we know what we're doing, but I don't think anyone can argue with our results short-term, can they? A few days ago someone suggested that my selections hadn't been posted in advance of racing so how did they know I wasn't making them up. Fair point, although I know I've backed every selection and put them up in a private forum for a number of people to see and back if they wish. When I started this blog it wasn't about "proofing" my selections pre-racing anyway, it was simply about me seeing if I could achieve my own targets for the year and provide a bit of amusement for others at the same time. Moving on from that, Gags put up a post the other day which showed that since the start of the year we'd had an average of about 4.4 bets each week between us and made about 4.4 points profit from those bets. One thing I'd like to point out is that since we started posting our selections and stakes on here pre-race our results have produced the following:-

15 BETS
3 WINNERS (11/2, 13/2 and 9/1)
7 PLACED
PROFIT +23.60 POINTS

AVERAGE SELECTIONS PER WEEK 5
AVERAGE PROFIT PER WEEK +7.8 POINTS

66% OF SELECTIONS AT LEAST PLACED AND NO LONG LOSING RUN

Maybe I am missing something here, but our results are far better since we started posting pre-race than they were before, so I think that puts paid to the manipulation myth, doesn't it? If we wanted to make things look better than they really are, surely we'd have made the pre-posting results better wouldn't we? Something else I'd like to point out. We post up our selections, our bets and the reasoning behind what we're doing in advance of racing because we've been asked to do just that by some people who wish to follow us. We then post all results up in the results section, regardless of whether they win or lose, for anyone to view.

As I said before I started off with this blog just to see if I could achieve some personal goals and to provide entertainment along the way for anyone who wanted to read it. Now Gags is on board and we have quite a few people following our selections and making a few quid for themselves. They have asked us to post pre-race, to send them our selections via email and text when we can and that is what we will do until this venture reaches its conclusion at the end of the year. Hopefully we'll all be wealthier then than we are now. From now on the only summaries I will be posting will be the weekly and year to date figures each Sunday.

Tomorrow sees the return of some decent aw action and of course there is a small matter of the Grand National and some other cracking races at Aintree. I'm off out now for a few beers but one of us will be back by luchtime tomorrow with our thoughts and selections for the day if we are getting involved.

Late Information!!!

I'm a little later than I hoped to be with this but those of you on the distribution list should have received the selection a little while ago. Today there is one bet:

1PT EW Weapons Amnesty 4.20 Aintree (available at 5/1 with Lads and Hills, 9/2 generally)

The reasons behind this are fairly simple but I will expand a little....Weapons Amnesty put up a very impressive performance at Cheltenham when winning the Albert Bartlett hurdle and in doing so it had a few of todays rivals behind it. I thought it was good value for winning further that day as when it hit the front it decided to prick it's ears and began to idle and only really picked up again once Pride of Dulcote had come back at it. On the evidence of that race it is hard to make a case for any behind it reversing the form and I think it has really improved for running on the better ground (most runs in Ireland on soft and heavy). I respect the chances of the favourite, Karabak, however at 7/4 it is not really something I would want to bet on, especially when there is no guarantee that it will get the trip. If you asked me whether it will stay or not, my opinion would be that it will, but I much prefer to back something at a much bigger price that has already proved it stays. If the selection runs its race today then it should be there or thereabouts and given a little luck, and the favourite possibly underperforming, then it looks a decent value each way bet to me.

Good luck and lets hope we get a run for our money!

A Reflection On Yesterday!

Apologies for the slow response but sometimes my work gets in the way of this punting game!!!

I had a fantastic day out yesterday, great weather, top class racing and some decent company and, aside from the extortionate prices that they charge at these events for food and drink, a fun day was had. I have to apologise regarding the circumstances about the Walkon bet (this will not happen very often), and as the price never reached the proviso this will not go on the account! I did say that I would give my reasoning behind the bet and for those who are interested, here it is.

As soon as the Triumph Hurdle has finished at Cheltenham I thought that the general feeling would be to look to pile into Starluck if it runs at Aintree. If you stopped the race turning for home then you would have thought Starluck was going to win easily however by the time they jumped the last hurdle, Walkon had taken his measure. The general perception about Aintree is that it is a speed track and it favours those who have speed rather than stamina, however I like to think otherwise. Yes it's a flat track and yes it's usually good fast ground but when you look at the times of the races closely it becomes apparent that there is also a need to have plenty of stamina, given the races are usually run at such a furious pace. For this very reason I believed that Walkon was going to finish in front of Starluck and similarly I couldn't understand why Hebridean was going to turn around an 18 length beating at Newbury in December, on 7lbs worse terms!! Even allowing for the fact that it was likely to improve for the flat track and better ground,and the fact that the trainer was so bullish, didn't give this horse the same chance as Walkon like the market suggested. When I looked at the prices on Wednesday night I was hoping for about 3/1 and it was generally available at 11/4 in most places (Bet365 were 5/2 but offered 1/4 the odds first 3). I thought the race only really concerned the front 3 in the betting, although I gave Ski Sunday a shout and on this basis I couldn't see Walkon finishing out of the places, with a favourites chance of winning! From a staking point of view I was left with the question 'do I put it up win only or do I hope to achieve 3/1 and go each way?' Clearly I opted for the latter and this has cost me a few points on the account but overall you have to do what you think is best at the time and in the long run this policy will make us plenty of money.

The race couldn't have gone much better to plan for Walkon and it has won really well and more than confirmed the Cheltenham form with Starluck. The horse is another advert to the training abilities of Alan King, and when it comes to getting a horse ready for the big day he has few, if any, peers as far as I'm concerned!

Mighty Man ran a great race and has practically ran to the pound with Big Bucks, who really is an exceptional horse. I cannot see anything stopping this winning another Stayers Hurdle next year, if connections decide to stick to the smaller obstacles, but there is along way to go before then, and as we've seen before, many things can happen between now and then!!!

I am quite keen on one horse today but I've not had enough time to look at the race in enough depth as yet but I will post something up by 3.30pm if I decide to play.

Mistakes Cost Us

Whenever you make mistakes it will cost you and that's fair enough I suppose. Today Gags selection made a mistake late on which I thought cost the horse a chance of winning. Gags view was that the winner would have stayed on and won regardless, so two slightly different opinions from two people watching the same race. Of course the game is all about opinions and you don't have to be right that often to make it a profitable game to play as long as you play with value on your side.

Unfortunately the mistake made by Mighty Man today was a small one compared to the cock-ups I've made in the last couple of days. Looking at the selections as they appear on the right it looks like a pretty quiet week so far with just two bets between the two of us. Yes they both placed and yes they've both generated a profit for us, but this week could have been so much better. I'm not talking about Cold Turkey, backed by us at 4/1 and smashed in to 2/1 before being pulled out of the race. There's nothing anyone can do about that and it costs us nothing anyway. The same day Cold Turkey didn't run at Lingfield I fancied one at Kempton in the evening. We'd backed Cross The Line each way at decent prices last time out when it just got done in a photo. In this race at Kempton it was at the front end of the betting but I reckoned two rivals would finish in front of it. I said as much to Gags, something along the lines of "I expect Pegasus Again to race prominently and finish in front of Cross The Line. But I reckon Marajaa could nail that one close home as long as it doesn't meet too much trouble in running." We discussed the race and agreed that if Marajaa was 4/1 or bigger we'd back it each way. In the Racing Post my "selection" was forecast at a much bigger price so we thought 4/1 or bigger would be easy enough to obtain. When I looked at oddschecker I couldn't believe it, the horse was 5/2 from 11/4. At that point I decided we'd leave it alone. No way were we getting involved at those odds and with the potential of a non-runner leaving the race with just seven, and then of course there was also the luck in running issue. I didn't think any more about the race until after the event when Gags called me to say he'd just flicked on RUK and seen a replay of the race. You can imagine how we felt, not when we saw the horse had won, but when we saw the starting price of 7/1. A minimum stake each way bet with a best odds guaranteed bookie would have added over £800 to the bottom line. I'm not saying we'd have waited for 7/1, of course not, but if I'd had the common sense to check the betting before the off we'd have definitely backed it once it reached 4/1 and since 99% of our betting is done with bog bookies, well we'd have done very nicely out of it.

So that mistake cost us as we didn't have a penny on. That brings us to my next cock-up. Last night Gags had two selections lined up for today. We backed Mighty Man and sent out the text messages and emails to those who have asked to be on the distribution list. We explained that there might be another selection sent out this morning but that it would depend upon prices. In the end I sent out a message this morning and as anyone on the list will confirm it said "235 Aintree Walkon 2 points each way at 3/1 or bigger". I know some people have backed this cosy winner anyway, regardless of the required price not being achieved, but it just goes to show that form study and race analysis are not enough on their own. You have to make the right decisions and be in a position to take advantage when circumstances change and opportunities arise.

Someone once said "it's okay to make mistakes, just don't keep making the same ones!" Hopefully that's me done for a while, either that or I'll let Gags decide in future on his own what prices we're playing at!

The positive spin on this is that at least we know our analysis is still spot on. If that continues and I don't get in the way then we should continue to make a good few quid.

There is nothing on the aw for me tomorrow. I think Gags may have another selection for Aintree. If so he'll post on here by about mid-day tomorrow, if not earlier.

At Last Some Decent Jump Racing!!

Well finally we have some racing which I consider worth watching and I have a bet to start the meeting off with.

2PTS EW - Mighty Man - 2.00 Aintree (9/2 available generally, although Bet365 offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3 so use them if possible)

It's the opening day of the Grand National meeting tomorrow and I can't wait. Heading off down there first thing in the morning and if the weather stays decent it should be a cracking day!

On to the racing, and I'm very keen on the selection, Mighty Man. This does have the look of a classic bet to nothing and the fact that we can get odds against on it being in the first 3 (Bet 365) when I make it a 1/2 shot, makes this a must play race. The horse has ran 3 times at Aintree at this meeting and has won each time, including twice in this race. The horse clearly loves the place and the fast ground is exactly what it needs.. On official ratings this is 2nd best behind Big Bucks, and in receipt of 8lbs, I believe it has a much better chance than the odds suggest of turning it over. The favourite put up a scintillating performance at Cheltenham and could go on to become the best stayer we have seen for a long time but I don't think it is bomb-proof tomorrow. The ground will be as quick as it will have encountered (all previous runs have been with cut in the ground with the exception of its win last year in a novice chase) and I also think this is an out and out stayer which might find things happening a bit quick. Obviously it has a good chance but at odds on I'm not interested. Mighty Man won this event by 13 lengths in 2007 before breaking down when sent off a short priced favourite at Punchestown. It was then sidelined until reappearing at Cheltenham this year when it ran a remarkable race to be 5th, beaten 28 lengths. When you consider that it had several of tomorrows rivals behind it and is better off at the weights with all bar one (same terms), and was almost certainly being primed for Aintree, then this has to be backed. I could keep mentioning bits of form with others in the race, which give MM the clear beating of them, but I'm catching an 8am train and I need to sleep in between so I'll leave it at that!!

My only reservation (and reason for not having a stronger bet on it) is the 'bounce factor'. It is quite a regular occurence, for a horse that has been off the track for a significant amount of time, to run a shocker next time out and I would have liked to have seen it given a little more time to recover. However there is no guarantee that this will happen so I'm happy to get involved. All things being equal this is a tremendous value bet and if it turns up anywhere near its best, it will surely place and should give the favourite plenty to think about.

There is a possibility of another bet tomorrow, but tonights prices don't really meet the price I was hoping to achieve, however if it drifts at all in the morning then Mick will text it through!

All the best!