Singing In The Rain?

There is one bet for me today:

4.10 Chepstow - Dancing Storm 2pt win (available at 7/2 Sky, 100/30 with Lads, Hills, Coral & Bet365)

When I initially looked at this race I was put off by the shape of the race as there are only 7 runners. After spending a little while going through the runners I decided that one of them looked as though it had everything in its favour and that could not be said of many of the other runners.

The selection is Dancing Storm and this looks to have an excellent chance today under optimal conditions. The horse is currently rated 56 after starting the season on a mark of 61 and is back down to a winning rating having won previously over C & D off 56 and 58. More significant is the fact that it has not run on soft ground this year and this is something that it clearly needs to give of its best. Todays ground is likely to be good/soft at least and this should suit this son of Trans Island down to the ground (no pun intended). Last time out it ran a very encouraging race at Salisbury where the ground was riding fast, making all the running and having everything off the bridle with a couple of furlongs to go. It eventually got collared and ended up fourth but it has dropped a further pound in the ratings and that run showed that it was returning to a bit of form. The other positives are the return to the saddle of Fergus Sweeney who has partnered it in both its course and distance wins, the trainer has an excellent record at this track (nearly 20% in the last 5 years) and the trainer jockey combo at Chepstow is even better (27%). The trainer has hit a little bit of form in the last month or so and with conditions in its favour today I think it will run a big race.

The market leader is the John Dunlop trained Manere Bay and whilst it is unexposed and has ran some creditable races I would prefer to look elsewhere. The trainer has gone 27 runners without a winner which is a concern and the sire has not had a winner at this distance as yet (0-11).

Next in is Respite which is trained by a personal favourite of mine William Haggas. As ever this yard has to be respected but you need to take a leap of faith to back this one today at 7/2 after it's last run where it was never travelling and ended up beaten 16 lengths. Yes you can always forgive a horse a poor run but it has only got a Kempton maiden win to its name thus far and is priced on expectation rather than what it has shown on the course. One to oppose today I reckon.

Inis Bottom doesn't look particularly well handicapped and disappointed on its only start on a soft surface and the trainer has an appalling record at the course with only 1 win from 58 attempts. Enough to put me off today!

Oriental Girl is quite interesting and is handicapped to win again. It has won over C & D before, admittedly on faster going, but has got some winning form on a softer surface off a 4lb higher mark than todays. Last time out it ran in the same race as the selection and travelled well on the wide outside before meeting with a little interference a furlong or so out. It was allowed to come home in its own time after that and is slightly better off with the selection today. Having said that the sire is only 1-34 at the course and the jockey booking doesn't look too significant (1-29 in last five years for this trainer). It could be the one to give the selection most to do but I much prefer the chances of Dancing Storm under todays conditions.

Nesayem is from a trainer who is in a bit of form but he has not trained a winner at the course as yet (0-9). The horse has only run in six maidens so far and whilst she has shown glimpses of ability I think a step up in trip would probably suit and not sure today is the day.

The final one is Rock Exhibition who has been running over hurdles since coming over to this country from Ireland. She has won on heavy ground over there in a fillies maiden but what that form amounts to is debatable and she has shown nothing since to think she is about to win again. Dropping down the handicap all the time but might need a further drop before she returns to the winners enclosure and definitely not one you could back unless you had some inside information!!

Overall I thought the selection was a decent bet at odds of 3/1+ and I will be disappointed if she doesn''t at least give me a good run for my money!!!