Saturday Night Bath Time!

Good morning,

It's nice to be back refreshed and well after a little family break and whilst I haven't had much opportunity to see any racing I have been keeping an eye on the results and checking out the form.

Today there is one bet for me:

6.15 BATH - DINGAAN - 2PTS WIN (available at 4/1 with Bet365 & Skybet, 7/2 generally)

The racing today looks pretty tough again and I wasn't interested in any of the bigger meetings at Sandown or Chester, I am keen on the selection at Bath this evening and whilst it is carrying a 4lb penalty for winning over C & D last month there is every chance that this will be able to shrug this off now that it has rediscovered the secret of getting its head in front!!

The horse has been rated much higher in the past and indeed has won off a mark as high as 88 (admittedly two years ago) but it has been running very creditably this season and some of the pieces of form have been franked and look very strong in the context of this race. The horse has been campaigned largely over 6 and 7F but its last two starts over the mile trip have seen it run two very encouraging races. Two starts ago it finished 2nd to a very progressive horse of Sir Michael Stoute's that has since won again and was then sent off a very short favourite in a much better race at Haydock off a 14lb higher mark. Three further winners have come from the horses that finished behind Dingaan that day and the form looks rock solid. Last time out on its first visit to Bath, Dingaan won a shade cosily after not getting the clearest of runs and again the form has been franked with the second winning since and the 4th winning twice. A 4lb rise doesn't look enough to prevent this from running a big race again today and I'm very keen on its chances. On the downside the horse has looked a little bit of a dodgepot in the past but it certainly hasn't shirked the issue the last twice and David Probert is 1 win and 1 second from his two rides on the horse. The stable is firing in the winners at the moment (10 wins from 45 in the last two seasons at the course) and they may just have found the key to this horse once again!!

The opposition looks largely uninspiring and there are a couple of 3yos in the line up who should help us to get a decent price. The likely favourite is Roger Charlton's Cheam Forever who has won its last two starts however it now races off a 10lb higher mark than its first success and is up in grade. The other market principal is Carbon Hoofprint trained by Peter Makin and this one tries to follow up its latest C & D success off a 5lb higher mark. Once again the horse steps up in class and the win came on much softer ground so it remains to be seen whether it will be as effective today. The horse had been getting beaten in lower class races off lower marks and creeping up the handicap as a consequence and whilst improvement from these two 3yos is likely they are going to have to post career bests to finish in front of Dingaan.

Champain Sands will possibly improve on its latest performances back on firm ground where it has posted two of its previous wins and it doesn't look too badly handicapped on past form.

Desert Dreamer finished in front of Dingaan in June at Chester but is 6lb worse off at the weights for 3 lengths and it looks an out and out 7F horse to me, indeed it has only placed once from 8 attempts at a mile or more!

Don Pietro has been running over 10F in claimers and sellers and whilst it is on a winning mark it hasn't won in 11 attempts in a class 4 and I'm not sure that today will be the day.

I Confess ran well at Chester yesterday but looks as though its optimal trip is 7F and it has yet to win after 24 attempts on turf so this cannot be fancied today.

Thunder Gorge will have to defy a career high mark and whilst the trip and ground should be fine this one looks like it needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before it returns to the winners enclosure.

La Rosa Nostra returns to 8F for the first time since its maiden win and it could bring about a little improvement.however it has yet to win in this class of race and I'm happy to overlook it today.

Top Seed looks to be way out of form and is trying a trip much shorter than ideal and can quickly be dismissed.

A race where there are doubts about many of the horses and I will be disappointed if Dingaan doesn't go close this evening.

Nothing else which I feel is worthy of a mention so I'll leave it there and hope to start back with a decent winner!!

Good luck!

EDIT - Apologies but there will be no texts or telephone messages for the next 2 weeks as Mick has had to go abroad with work and he cannot access the phone as normal.