Derby Day!

Today is the highlight for many flat lovers as the premier race the Derby takes centre stage. We feel that this is a very open race this year and have nothing strong enough for the account although we both think that Black Bear Island could be the one that is overpriced. We have however had a bet in the 2.50 Musselburgh:

2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)

We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.

Good luck if you play.

There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.