Friday, 18 September 2009

I'm Still Alive!!!


There is a non runner in the race now which reduces the field to seven however I have had a 2PT EW bet at 6/1 with Stan James and William Hill. Normally I would only back win only in a seven runner race but if this runs anywhere near to form then the only danger is the favourite and 1/4 the odds 1-2 still makes a bit of appeal. Good luck if you follow me in!!

Well the last few weeks certainly haven't gone to plan and a combination of things good and bad have meant that there has been no time for blogging unfortunately!!

A few weeks back I was really keen on one and after spending about 90 mins going through the race and writing an in depth analysis, I had a strong account selection ready to go. When I went to bed there was only one firm priced up and they were showing 11/2 which I was more than happy to back it at. Well things went downhill from there....I logged on at 8.00 am and they were now showing 4/1 on the horse and by 9.30 this was the price across the boards. I adjusted my staking slightly due to the reduced value but then decided that I would just pass on the bet completely. Wind the clock forward several hours and hey presto it wins by 6 lengths at 3/1!!! To say I was pissed off would be an understatement!!! To put so much time into writing everything up only to receive a hefty whack to the chuds is extremely frustrating to the say the least and it was several days before I could even bring myself to even think about this blog!! Anyway I have been doing reasonably well from my betting over the last few weeks and its time to start posting on a regular basis again.

Due to some added time constraints and a new server at work, I will no longer be able to access the site during normal weekdays. What I intend to do from now on is whenever I find anything which looks of interest I will post it up the night before. In most cases I am not going to have any prices to work with but I will put the price I consider to be value and go from there. I am going to reduce the amount of analysis but I cannot see any other way of fitting it all in unless this happens.

I have had a decent look at tomorrows cards and I will be getting involved with one horse at the moment assuming the price is available tomorrow. The horse is an old favourite of mine and tomorrow sees it running under optimal conditions in a race which doesn't look overly competitive. The race in question is the 2.25 Newmarket and the selection will be Storyland provided that I can achieve 4/1 or better. The RP forecast is 6/1 but it is currently a little shorter on BF and I'm not holding my breath about getting 6's on this one tomorrow!

There are a few good reasons why I think this warrants backing tomorrow. Firstly it is a horse which needs a long straight to bring the best out in her and the trainer has managed to run her in races at courses which don't reaaly suit her style so far this season. She has also been the victim of at least two poor rides from Miss Milczarek this season and I'm hoping that in an 8 runner race on one of the widest tracks in the country, that she manages to find a way through tomorrow!! The horse won the race last year (admittedly off a 12lb lower mark) but she then followed up with a convincing win off a mark just 3lb lower than tomorrows. Fast ground is ideal, this is her time of year, and she is back running against her own sex in a much easier race than the ones she has been competing in all season. The other key factor is the lack of quality opposition. The fav is priced up on connections and whilst she could still prove to be well handicapped she was hardly impressive when winning a Class 4 handicap on the AW last time and I would be keen to take her on at around 6/4. Most of the others are stepping up in class and/or have doubts about the trip and ground and it really does look an obvious selection to me. Not exactly sure how I'm going to stake the bet as there are only the dead eight declared but more than likely will be going win only.

If I get chance in the morning I will update with the prices and my intended staking.

One or two people have asked me about the whereabouts of Mick. Unfortunately he is not going to be involved in the blog from now on and that means that there will be no further texts or phone messages going out, however he is still following the racing and hopefully he may return if his circumstances change at all. As most people know this was his blog originally and I'd like to thank him for all his help and efforts over the last six months as I appreciate how time consuming it can be.

I hope I haven't rambled on too much and hopefully the new style approach will generate a bit of interest amongst you racing enthusiasts!!!

Bye for now!


Anonymous said...

What is it with you and female jockeys? You kept putting up Sir Isaac until just before it won. Was it was her fault it lost when you backed it and won when you didn't? Do you factor who is riding the horse into the price?

Gags said...


Thanks for the comments. I guess I've always had a soft spot for the ladies but thats just human nature isn't it?

On a serious note she does have a good record overall and I think both Hayley and Kirsty are decent jockeys although I wouldn't choose to put them on my horses given a choice. Sir Isaac was hugely frustrating and it was pretty clear to me that it was a winner waiting to happen but unfortunately she didn't ride it to best effect when we selected it on here!

I think you have to accept that trainers of the calibre of Michael Bell and William Haggas know a little bit more about the game than you and I and if they are happy to keep using these ladies then they must be reasonable?

I think you always have to factor a little bit into the price in terms of the jockey as some are clearly better than others but I prefer to look at trainer and horse form primarily before touching on the jockey booking. Do you have any views on this?