Magical Musselburgh!!

There is one strong bet today:

8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)

This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.

The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!

Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!

The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!

Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.

Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.

Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.

Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.

As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!

A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!

ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.