Punting is all about making long term profits from backing selections at value prices. I think anyone with a history of making the game pay will agree with that. However, as with any results driven business there will be good times when everything rolls your way and there will be tough times when the opposite happens. Anyone who has been reading this blog for a while will know that I don't believe in the theory that luck plays a major part in our success or failure. I'm sure that luck will even itself out over any significant period.
It's clear to see that recently we've got it badly wrong with our selections. The good news is that 99% of the time we've been proved correct in wanting to play in the right races. We have identified horses to take on and they have almost all been beaten. Where we've got things wrong recently is in deciding how to oppose these horses. Too often we've gone for the wrong one of two or three on our shortlist of possible winners. That's not bad luck, that's poor decision making.
When things don't work out the way I'd like I have only one way of turning them around. That is to work even harder to put them right. There won't be any drastic changes to the way we do things. We will continue to try and identify horses at the front end of the market which we feel we can get beat. That part of what we do has to date been hugely successful and anyone laying the horses we've been keen to take on will be making a fortune. We simply need to get back to picking the right one with which to oppose these types. In the past I've used both each way and split stakes betting to make money but during the last few months our approach has concentrated on the former. Perhaps we will mix things up a little more in future, especially in races where we quite like a couple and they're available at value prices. That has to be better than picking the wrong one of the two doesn't it?
We've not made any progress on here in the last few weeks and that has unfortunately been the case with our paid experts as well. At the moment it seems that just as one source produces the business, another will have a nightmare. Still, it's better to tread water than to be losing bundles and I'm sure that it will all click in to place soon enough. As we've seen already this year, when things do go well the profits can grow very quickly. Importantly we are operating from a position of strength with thousands of pounds already won via our betting exploits so far this year.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
80 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (37%)
PROFIT / LOSS +41.11 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.34%
We have been asked to include the return on investment figures in our updates, hence the extra details above. With just over four months of the year gone this figure can change quite quickly and is best ignored, in our opinion, until we have a much larger sample of bets behind us. Anyway, it's there now and will be included each week for those who wish to keep an eye on it.
No flat racing today so a rare day off at the weekend. I'm going to enjoy the footie, the F1 race from Spain and spend a bit of time with the family before this evening getting stuck in to tomorrows cards. Meanwhile I'm sure Gags will be resting with his feet up after his little stroll yesterday!
Sunday, 10 May 2009
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2 comments:
Mick, can you also start to include your P&L and return on investment since you started the blog.Not overly interested in how many thousands you’ve won before you started the blog but lots have followed you on the blog and it’s important that you give a true picture of performance on the blog also.
JP has you 12.55 points down but he missed some bets,so I’m keen to see how it looks.Please exclude winners in your results on the blog that weren’t on the blog pre-race.Chief Dan George et al.
Thanks
Dave
Hi Dave,
I have made the point before that all of the bets I've had have been provided to others in advance of racing either on this blog, via text and email free of chrage, or via a private forum.
However, courtesy of someone a lot smarter than me with computers and spreadsheets I can easily provide the information you have requested. We can also break the selections and results down by race type, number of runners and a whole host of other parameters. There's too small a sample at the moment for this to be of much use, but in future I think it will be extremely valueable to be able to look back and see where we've done well and we're we have struggled.
So that everyone can see it I will put it up on a thread on the blog rather than leave it hidden away with the comments.
Good luck and hope you enjoy the blog,
Mick.
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