Wednesday 20 May 2009

Glorious Goodwood!!!

One bet so far today:

1PT Each Way - 4.35 Goodwood - Dome Rocket (available at 9/2 with lads, 4/1 generally)

This is another one of those races where we believe the horse with the best form in the book has been underestimated by the layers. We make this the most likely winner and whilst there are one or two unraced horses in the field, it generally pays to go with proven form.

The selection was arguably a little disappointing first time up this season when sent off a short priced favourite (may have needed the run and can be forgiven) but the drop back to 10F and a return to Goodwood where it ran well on debut should be in its favour. The current favourite is priced up more on connections than previous form and the Stoute runner was well beaten on its only start (very slow time) despite appearing to have the run of the race. There may be a decent horse lurking amongst the unraced types from the Johnston and Brittain yards but we think the selection is the solid one.

There is a good chance that there will be some more action for us later on but we need to monitor one or two things first and will issue a text/email after 4pm if we're getting involved.

All the Best

EDIT

There is one additional bet for us today:

1PT Each Way double - 5.10 Goodwood - Miss Tango Hotel (2/1 available in places, generally 15/8)
4.55 Lingfield - Pha Mai Blue (3/1 generally available)


We make both of these the most likely winners and whilst we feel they are a little bit short to back as win or each way singles in their own right, we believe that there is a bit of value to be had by combining them both in an each way double. Basically if they both place there is no downside, whilst if they both win it's a nice return on the bet.

We think that Miss Tango Hotel has the most solid form in the book and should be favourite ahead of the Stoute horse. The selection chased home a well regarded filly at Chester last time and is well drawn today. The favourite on the other hand has only seen a racecourse once where it finished behind another of todays runners, Aurora Sky (reopposes on the same terms so not quite sure how one is 6/4 and the other 16/1) and is also drawn badly in stall 2. Clearly this is from one of the top yards and must have been showing something at home of late but on what we know, the selection has better claims and in a race where only a few can be seriously fancied it should be in the first three at worst.

Pha Mai Blue was one which we missed last time having been on our shortlist but it won a decent C & D race in a time better than any of todays rivals have ever posted. It only has a 4lb penalty for that success and is still well handicapped on some of its old form and since joining Jim Boyle we can only see it improving again. Many of the rivals are exposed and look on high enough marks however the biggest danger could come from Obezyana now that it has Winston on board instead of being apprentice ridden. If the selection performs up to a similar level as last time it must go close and with luck in running will prove too strong for todays rivals.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,

Great Blog! I've only just came across this blog recently and think it is great. I'm a relative novice at the horses and your analysis is helping me no end.

This may be a stupid question, but how can I receive text/email messages as you mentioned in today's message?

Jimmy

Gags said...

Hi Jimmy,

Glad you are enjoying the blog (pity that last selection was just ran out of a place) but thats the way it goes unfortunately!!

If you would like to receive the selections by email/text please just contact me using the link on the rhs of the blog under "Gags", (leave your mobile number) and I'll make sure you're added to the list.

Thanks

Gags