7.25 Newmarket

We have decided to bet in this race because we feel there are reasons for taking on those at the front of the market. If you can take out one or two at the front end then you should obtain value about anything you back and that’s the way we see things.

Dona Alba –

An eye catching run last time out, finishing 3rd at Epsom in a Class 2 Event. Three of today’s rivals behind that day but she arguably got the run of the race and that was on good ground. She seems to run well in decent races without winning. One of today’s rivals is 6lb better off for 5 lengths having got no real run in that race. If you fancy this one at 2/1 then surely you should consider the other at eight times the price! The trainer had just one winner at the course last year from 24 runners and hasn’t had a winner here over 10 furlongs in the last five years from 24 runners. Dona Alba won a 10 furlong event at Leicester on good ground and now races off a 7lb higher mark on good to firm ground. Yes, she has run well in some good races but at the price we have to oppose.

Bandama –

Has run well fresh in the past, but has never won on his first run of the season. The trainer has just one win at the course in May from 23 runners and is 0/12 at the course with six year olds. We think Bandama possibly needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap and may be better suited by a return to 12 furlongs. Interesting that Ryan Moore has ridden this one for two of its three wins. Perhaps we should look out for this one a little way down the road over 12 furlongs with Moore back on board.

Kavachi –

The first of two runners trained by G Moore and this one has Ryan booked to ride. Everything looks set for this one to run a big race, but we’re not convinced. The jockey is 0/5 on Kavachi and at the price we prefer to look elsewhere.

Seeking The Buck –

If you look through his form you can make a case for him upsetting one or two here at a big price. However, he hasn’t been seen for two years and we can’t back horses with his profile.

Kaleo –

Trainer not in great form, 0/13 this year so far and 0/14 at this course overall. Kaleo has run just once on turf in the UK and has a 6lb pull at the weights for finishing behind today’s favourite in the aforementioned race at Epsom. Whilst we feel this one’s price is more realistic than that of the favourite, we still cannot back him until he has shown a lot more.

Mega Watt –

Whilst Mega Watt has not run yet this season but if taking his place we think he’s an interesting runner. On balance we just think he might prove better at slightly less than 10 furlongs in this grade.

That leaves us with two remaining contenders and we have backed them both.

725 Newmarket – GOODWOOD STARLIGHT 1 point win at 25/1 Stan James, 20/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365 (generally available at 16's)

725 Newmarket – SERIOUS CHOICE 2 point win at 8/1 available with Blue Square & 888 Sport (7/1 generally)

The first is the second in this race trained by G Moore. No doubt many will see this as a “no hoper” with Ryan booked for the shorter priced of their runners. However, we’ve looked through the form of GS and we can’t leave him out. The ground and trip are no problem for him, he’s racing off just 2lb above his last winning mark and if his form follows the same pattern this year as it did last, well we think he could go close at a massive price. Last year he had a pipe-opener before hitting form in his second, third and fourth runs, winning two of them and an unlucky loser in another. He could prove to be better handicapped than many his rivals today. Finally for him, if no-one else wants to make the running then he could get a soft lead.

Serious Choice will be over-looked by many because he doesn’t have the sexy profile of some of those at the front of the market. What we know for sure is that he has won on good to firm ground and over 10 furlongs. His win last time out has been franked by the second and fourth winning since. Both won off higher marks than they were racing off when finishing behind SC and one of those victories was up in class at a grade one track. Many will notice that the G Moore / Ryan Moore combination have a 28% strike rate this year, but how many will pick up on the fact that J Boyle and Jack Mitchell have a 35% strike rate over the last four seasons?

Of course we could be proved wrong with all of the above but at the prices we’re happy to take our chance. Good luck if you play.