6.05 Sandown

We have bet in one race today. We believe our selection is the form pick and the available odds were big enough to tempt us. At first glance many might think this is a really competitive race, but we feel there are valid reasons for opposing the short priced favourite and the last time out winner at the front of the market.

Kensington Oval – ran three times last year, winning first time out as a 3 year old in a maiden over course and distance. Obviously the stable think a fair bit of this horse, but on what he has produced on the racecourse to date we have to be against him at such short odds. He was sent off favourite in his second run in a listed event at Ascot, where he finished out with the washing, before returning to the same venue for a Class 2 handicap in which he again fluffed his lines. If this horse is as good as some think then he could easily win this event but we have to deal with what has been seen on the racecourse, therefore we are against this one tonight.

Dr Livingstone – is an interesting runner and we can’t dismiss him, we just think that he might come on for the run and prefer a bit more cut in the ground than he’s likely to get tonight. One of the more likely candidates in our view but we prefer another runner tonight.

Moves Goodenough – looks like he’s weighted right up to his best and beyond after three wins at the end of last season. We think he’d probably prefer a shorter trip as well.

Mafeking – would be more interesting over this trip back at Lingfield on the all weather.

Mountain Pride – was beaten a long way last time out and needs to step forward considerably on that effort before being of interest to us.

Sharpazmax – has done all of his winning, three years ago, at 7 furlongs. Another with improvement required in order to figure tonight.

Baylini – has some good efforts to her name yet she is 0/15 on turf and looks unlikely to improve upon that tonight.

By Command – we don’t think he is good enough.

Pelham Crescent – is one we are keen to oppose. He has won his last three on the spin, but all were at Bath on fast ground and in lesser quality events than this. He now runs off a mark some 14lb higher than for the first of those wins and would definitely need a career best performance to win this.

Alfie Tupper – looks too high in the weights looking at his turf form. He has a win and a place from three runs here, but the win was off a rating of 62 in a Class 5 event on good to firm ground. Now racing off 73 and in a better race on different ground. We’ll pass on him tonight.

That of course leaves us with our selection in the race:-

605 Sandown – WIGGY SMITH 1 point each way at 9/1 with Tote, 8/1 with Boyle, Stan James (both BOG) and elsewhere

The first thing many will say is that our selection is hardly likely to be improving at the age of 10 and we won’t argue with that. However, in our opinion the selection has the best turf form of any of these runners, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance a month ago in a better race than this and this evening is re-united with Dane O’Neill who has ridden the horse for three of its four turf wins. That run and the win last season at Leicester, albeit in a weaker affair, suggest to us that Wiggy Smith retains enough of his ability to be a serious threat in this race. Like the favourite he is drawn high which could give him another advantage. Whereas Kensington Oval has only ever been help up and / or slowly away our selection has previously been ridden closer to the pace when it was an advantage to be ridden that way, most notably over course and distance.

As previously stated, overall we believe there are valid reasons for taking on the favourite and one or two of the others at the front of the market this evening. We feel we are with the form horse at value odds, nothing more and nothing less. This selection is typically the type of bet we like to strike, regardless of the result this evening. We know that in the long term enough of these bets will win and place to make them profitable. Of course we hope that tonight is one such example.

Good luck if you play.