First Bet Of The Month

There is definitely one bet for us at this stage and there are possibilities of further bets later on. The analysis for the race is shown below:

Bourse – Looks to have it to do from out of the handicap. We think Bourse will struggle to turn around form with two of today’s rivals from a race run over a furlong shorter at the track about a month ago.

Casino Night – Makes no appeal racing off 6lb higher than she’s won off. No wins from 5 course runs, in our opinion she would need a lot of rain to fall to give her a chance. Even then we would prefer others.

Celtic Change – Whilst this one has just one win to his name, off a 3lb lower mark, he has run some decent races and we think he’s a live contender today. Many will argue the last time out performance should make him the pick here and we can understand that, even if we don’t agree.

Cigalas – On what we’ve seen this cannot win today.

Golden Penny – Seems to produce its best on the all weather and not hard to oppose today.

Royal Amnesty – An interesting runner with a top jockey taking the ride. The horse has won at the venue but over much further. However, the facts are that this one last won on turf off a mark of 66 and today he has to race off 80. A prolific winner on the all weather but we’ll pass on this one until he shows he can be competitive off this sort of mark back on turf.

Sirvino – No doubt many will be getting stuck in to this one today. After winning last time out at Beverley having been well backed to do so this will be popular despite the rise in the handicap and the relatively short odds on offer. Our view is that of course the horse could win, but we feel he would possibly be better off stepping up in trip rather than down in trip at a sharp track. At the odds this is one of those we feel we have to take on.

Wind Star – The trainer / jockey combination has been pretty successful around here and this one can be given a chance off today’s mark. Our only real concern with this horse is that he has never won first time out before.

That brings us to our selection in this race:-

330 Musselburgh – WIND SHUFFLE 1 point each way at 7/1 with Bet 365 (BOG), Bet Fred and Ladbrokes.

The first point to make is that our selection finished behind one of today’s rivals, Celtic Change, last time out. However, we feel that our selection could come on more for that run and be better suited by the step up in trip today. Celtic Change has the visor fitted today but we’re not convinced that will have a positive effect and last but not least, our selection is more than twice the price of that rival. With the horse, trainer and jockey looking in decent form we felt we had to play at the odds available. There is some rain forecast for the area but our view is that it wouldn’t hinder our selection’s chances.

As has been pointed out by one or two people recently, we could be completely wrong and you may be better off getting a pin out and playing the game that way. Obviously we don’t think so and we remain convinced that what we do will pay dividends in the long term. Of course we would say that wouldn’t we?

We may be having other bets today. If that is the case then I’ll post the details on here a bit later.

Good luck if you play today.