3.00 Bath

There is one minimum stakes selection for us today:

1PT WIN - 3.00 Bath - Beautiful Lady (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James, 7/1 generally)

This bet is slightly speculative as we wouldn't normally put something up that was beaten nearly twenty lengths on its previous start, however we believe that it can be excused a little for its run on Friday as it hadn't been on a racecourse for over six months and was staying on quite nicely from the back. That race was an apprentice handicap and they have a habit of producing results where most of the horses are strung out like washing so not really going to read too much into that!!! Today she competes against her own sex and races off a mark two pounds lower than when she won a 12f handicap at Thirsk last year. Whilst she has never won over todays trip, there is every chance that she will appreciate the step up given her pedigree and with Holland booked today we think at 8/1 she has been overlooked by the odds compilers. The fact that the front three in the betting are still all maidens and all unproven over the trip (the breeding suggests one or two may struggle) has persuaded us to have a minimum investment today. One thing we can say about the selection is that she goes on the ground and is likely to get the trip, whereas you cannot say this about many of her rivals! There is no denying that this is a little bit speculative, and she could run like a mule, but lets hope its one of her going days and she comes up with the goods.

We are always trying to find ways of bettering ourselves and we will be continuing to tweak things with the way we stake selections, but we would like to think that the bets will be split into two types:

1 - Really solid each way bets (2-5pts each way) where we would expect a return of some kind about 75-80% of the time. We won't just be looking to play for the sake of it and will only play when we believe we are on the most likely winner in the race and the price is out of line!
2 - More speculative win only bets where we feel there is something at the front of the market which is underpriced and/or suspect over trip/ground, etc.

We may also try and include some 'lay' bets as a separate entity but we both believe that trying to select something in races where there is a weak favourite is the better way to go, at least for the time being anyway!!!

We have endured a difficult time of late and yet there has been little damage done to the overall P & L and I think it is fair to say that we have been getting most of the analysis right, if not the selections!!!!

Overall there are some really exciting months ahead and we are extremely confident that the P & L will start moving in the right direction.

Good luck if you play,