3.45 York

Between us we have spent a lot of time on one race at York today. We do not think this is the most competitive 17 runner race there has ever been and with reasons to oppose some of those at the front of the market we feel compelled to have a bet.

Stand Guard – has shown nothing on turf to suggest he’ll be winning this off his current mark.

Rosbay – can be fancied on some pieces of form but has not won for two years and trainer form extremely off putting.

Spring Jim – this initially made our shortlist but we came to the conclusion that 10 furlongs is more his trip than the mile and a half he tackles today.

Dzesmin – made the shortlist for one of us but in the end dismissed because of the terrible draw.

Serious Impact – has to be on everyone’s shortlist with powerful connections, but if this horse is slowly away from the gates (drawn out wide) as he has been on his two career runs to date, then he’ll need to be a serious animal to come from last to first. If that happens then so be it, but at the prices and on what this has achieved to date we have to take it on.

Kingsdale Orion – good luck Koo, but we dismissed with doubts about the ground and the trainer’s form this year.

Wellington Square – not been seen out this year and doubts about the trip and not enough turf form to suggest a win is likely today.

King Fingal – another one which made it on to the shortlist for one of us but up in trip and class, looks well drawn although that could be a negative if held up and would be a surprise if good enough on first run of the year.

Overrule – made it on to both of our shortlists, but likely to be over-bet and under-priced and as already stated the trainer form this year is poor.

Cyborg – probably needs some juice in the ground.

Tres Froide – not run this year and no form to work with.

Mesbaah – not run this year and doesn’t look good enough to us.

Dazzling Light – still a maiden.

All In The Red – poor effort last time out, not good enough.

Gifted Leader – another maiden.

Smugglers Bay – not good enough and out of the handicap.

As you can see between us we came up with Spring Jim, Dzesmin, Overrule, King Fingal, the jolly and our selection between us on our initial shortlists. With reasons for opposing the first five of these we have decided to back

345 York – BIRKSIDE – 1 point win at 11/1 (with BOG firms), 12/1 elsewhere.

The selection won the race last year and is re-united with the same jockey today. That is significant in our opinion because the jockey usually rides for a trainer who saddles two of today’s other runners. Furthermore, the last really good performance put up by our selection was with today’s jockey on board. Birkside has obviously won over course and distance, he has won in the grade here and elsewhere off similar marks and the ground is fine for him. He needs to prove that he is back to somewhere near his best after a pipe opener last time out and may need a bit of luck in running from stall 12. If back to his best and able to get to a reasonable position at the start then we think he’s a massive price at double figure odds. Of course we don’t know for sure that he is back to his best, that is the reason we’ve just backed him with minimum stakes to win only.

The other races on the day looked competitve or had poor shapes to them and we decided to swerve them.

Good luck