Sandown Sizzlers??

Only a couple of days ago we backed a cosy winner of a handicap confined to 3 year olds. At the time we said these were not our favourite type of races but that whenever we felt we were able to obtain a value price about our idea of the most likely winner then we would get involved again. The 7 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 7.15pm falls into that category. The reason these races are so difficult for punters is simple. Too often a number of the runners are unexposed, therefore it is difficult to dismiss them as not having a chance. In all honesty we are unable to totally dismiss a number of the runners in this race but we are still quite keen on one and have decided the odds are sufficient to enable us to get involved. Our decision to play win only is dictated by the shape of the race and the fact that we are unable to get the race down to just two or three runners.

Advertise – ran three times as a 2 year old, performing well first time out over 6 furlongs on fast ground in a Goodwood maiden which has thrown up a number of winners. He went on to win his next race, a soft ground maiden at Warwick, before finishing down the field in a Class 3 event at Doncaster. So we don’t think the ground will be a problem and the trip should be fine, but we don’t know if the horse has trained on or if he’ll like the combination of fast ground and 7 furlongs. This one is also drawn widest of all which hardly helps.

Beautiful Breeze – won one from five as a 2 year old and one from two as a 3 year old. He won a Class 5 event last time out having come up short before that in a Class 3 event at Beverley. Up 6lb for the victory, we feel that others have more scope at this trip.

Brave Echo – was beaten 13 lengths last time out (first run as a 3 year old) and 20 lengths in his last run as a 2 year old, both on ground with cut (last year connections stated the horse didn’t like soft ground), yet he is 4/1 best price for this event this evening. Obviously he comes from a very powerful yard and a number of winners have come out of the Leicester maiden he won as a 2 year old on good ground. Despite the fact that there is money for him (indeed he could go off favourite) and that J Fortune takes the ride, we prefer to side with one having shown better recent form.

Cyflymder – has two wins from eight career starts, a soft ground maiden and a Linfield all weather Handicap. We prefer to look elsewhere.

Durgan – has raced only three times and hasn’t shown enough for us. Of course he could improve significantly upon what he has shown to date but we would need to see more before getting involved.

Head Down – has shown he handles a fast surface and that 7 furlongs suits him, but is up 5lb for winning his 11th career start and that was a run of the mill maiden on the all weather at Lingfield. We think he’s more exposed than some and not for us today.

Key Signature – we think this one will struggle to give the weight away to one or two less exposed rivals.

Major Phil – is another from a powerful yard. He is unexposed and the jockey booking can hardly be described as a negative.

Master Fong – is yet to race as a 3 year old and as such we couldn’t back him today.

That leaves us with our selection which we have backed with firms offering the bog concession. This could drift as there seems to be a bit of money around for one or two of the others.

715 Sandown – SIR ISAAC 2 points win at 4/1 with Sporting Bet (7/2 generally)

Our selection has run and won as a 3 year old. He has been given a break of a month and now steps in to handicap company. He stayed on well to win his maiden at Goodwood in the style of an improving horse. The fact that he was allowed to go off at a sp of 16/1 that day suggests that the result wasn’t totally expected. We believe there could be a lot more to come from this horse. So apart from the fact that he won his maiden over 7 furlongs at a top track, what else is in his favour today? Well, connections could hardly be in better form could they? The trainer has had 7 winners from his last 16 runners and the trainer and jockey have a 50% strike rate when teaming up. If you also consider that the sire has a 40% strike rate at the course and that the selection has the best of the draw, particularly for one likely to be ridden prominently, then we don’t think it takes too long to work out that he could be a fair bit better than a 75 rated animal. All things considered we believe 7/2 represents a bit of value and if the price drifts then even better.

We have also bet in the following race, the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap due off at 750pm. The first thing we should say is that we respect the chances of the jolly and we agree it probably has at least as good a chance of winning as any other of its rivals, but we believe there is significant value to be had by looking elsewhere.

Annabelle’s Charm – she must have a good chance of picking up the prize, but she has been a beaten favourite on more than one occasion.

Ballinteni – is 0/7 at the distance and 0/9 on fast ground.

Cotswolds – an unexposed M Johnston horse but on what we’ve seen we couldn’t back him.

Ellemujie – cannot be dismissed and has form lines which tie in with one or two of the other runners. We just feel that better value lies elsewhere.

Hurricane Hymnbook – beaten almost a combined 40 lengths in his last three runs.

Miss Glitters – has only run four times, therefore unexposed, but up in trip and class today. Not for us at the prices.

Mujood – has been in fine form recently and is another with collateral form. Another bold bid could be on the cards but we prefer another one today.

Ocean Transit – doesn’t look good enough.

Prince Of Thebes – could be well handicapped and is an attractive price. We are just concerned that he doesn’t seem to be finishing off his races that well. He may well pop up at a price but we can’t back him today.

Willow Dancer – has form with a couple of rivals, but if you fancy this one then surely you have to consider our selection at bigger prices.

So that brings us to our selection for the race:-

750 Sandown – HABSHAN 1 point win at 10/1 with Stan James (bog), Skybet and Ladbrokes

Habshan is now 9 years old but is only lightly raced and he showed he retains his ability when running a cracking race to finish 3rd of 12 behind his stable-mate on his seasonal reappearance. In the past he has won on his second outing and all of his seven career wins have come at this distance, five of them on fast ground and one at this venue. Of course he will need luck in running but the trainer / jockey have a great record when teaming up. We have played because we believe he has a live chance and his odds are bigger than they should be.

Good luck if you get involved today.