It is a pretty average days racing today and as far as this afternoon is concerned there is nothing which we felt justified going on to the account. We got involved with one late last night, with a view to trading, and whilst we believe it is certain to trade shorter than the prices originally available, there were one or two doubts as to its ability to last home and for that reason we cannot put it up as a bet.
For those of you that are interested the horse in question is Fastnet Storm in the 4.00 Ripon. This horse has run some very respectable races so far and whilst it has disappointed on a few occasions there are valid reasons for this (soft ground). The horse is clearly quite well regarded by the trainer (he has sent it to Newmarket a couple of times and the horse has been well backed on more than one occasion) and on a track where the trainer and jockey have a 26% strike rate this must be of interest. When you consider that the sire has a record of 6 wins from 13 tries at the course (46%) and an overall record of 18% at the trip then it becomes even more interesting. We would expect this to bounce out this afternoon and try and make all and whilst there are a couple of potential improvers, notably Hatta Diamond and High Office, it would not be the biggest surprise to see this fend them all off in the home straight.
So why is this not going on to the account you might ask? Simply the price was 6/1 last night with the only bookmaker to price up and whilst there is now one non runner (another we felt was of interest) it is now a general 4/1 chance, 7/2 in places and doesn't really offer much in terms of value.
Hopefully we have read the race correctly again and the selection will trade shorter and generate a decent risk free bet for us but whether it hangs on for the win remains to be seen!
Good luck if you get involved with anything today and if there is anything this evening we will be back on here with the bet and analysis as usual.
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4 comments:
spot on again!!
Nigel Peters
I was on Fastnet Storm at 6/1 just 5 mins before the race. It went off at 9/2, you should include these too-short to have a bet types of horses that you feel don't have value in the morning, but with the Proviso that if they stay at 4/1 then it's a no bet and if it drifts to 6/1 5-10 mins before the race then it is included as a selection
Thanks Nigel, It was a good read but not a lot of good for the account P & L, but we didn't feel it was right to back something at 6's and put it up as a bet at a much shorter price which it was generally. At least it shows we are getting a lot of things right and hopefully we can add some profits to the account in the next few days!
All the best
Gags
Hi Anon,
It is a very tough call to make with regard to provisos as regardless of what you think might happen there is always likely to be situations where some people miss out and others profit. To keep things fair to all we feel that it is better just to post our thoughts up and let people form their own conclusions. To be honest I was amazed to see it drift to 6's on the exchanges 10 mins before the off but it soon came back in and went off around the price we felt it should be.
Glad you backed it and hopefully made a few quid from the bet.
Cheers
Gags
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