7.40 Thirsk

It is not very often that you will find us betting in handicaps confined to 3 year olds, but when we believe we have value on our side then we have to get involved.

The market is suggesting that the M Bell trained jolly, Secret Society, will be very tough to beat. Of course you have to respect the connections but we think this one is too short on what it has actually achieved. Once you come to that conclusion it’s simply a case of laying the favourite, not our chosen method, or finding one or two against it at decent odds. So what exactly has this one achieved? Four career runs to date, two as a 2 year old including a nothing out of the ordinary 2nd in a Folkestone maiden over 6 furlongs. As a 3 year old we’ve seen the horse twice. He won his maiden at Lingfield on the all weather, a four runner affair, before finishing 4th of 7 in a mile handicap at Newmarket. From what we can make out it is that run upon which people are pinning their hopes of him winning tonight. Whilst the Racing Post comments show that he got tired inside the final furlong they make no mention of the fact that it was a slow run race, therefore stamina was not at a premium. Whilst he could very well win tonight, we do not believe he should be as short as he is at 2/1 in the betting.

The market has Regal Lyric as the next best in at around 5/1. We think this price is more to do with the connections (trainer / jockey combination have a 50% strike rate at this course) than it is to do with form. This horse actually finished behind Richo last time out yet, off the same terms, is half the price. We think others bring better form to the race. It is also our view that this one would need to be decent to win from the draw. Of course that is not impossible but at the prices we are happy to oppose.

Fathey represents the Fahey / Hannigan combination but needs to step up on what it has achieved so far in order to win tonight. One win from 7 career starts, in a 5 furlong maiden at Hamilton as a 2 year old, does not suggest to us that this one is especially well treated. Having said that the horse is trying the trip for the first time so that could bring about some improvement, although we prefer to look elsewhere.

Richo finished in front or Regal Lyric when they met but as previously stated we think either will do well to win tonight, bearing in mind the form they have shown to date and the draws they have to overcome.

Seldom is unexposed, a winner over the distance and on fast ground, but has to contend with the worst of the draw.

Of the remainder we think Red Kyte could run better than the odds of 20/1 suggest, but our selection is

740 Thirsk – BRIERTY - 1 POINT WIN AT 17/2 with Hills (bog), 8/1 with Coral.

Our selection ran five times as a 2 year old, winning twice and running with credit on at least one other occasion. Her running style more than once suggested that she will be able to take advantage of a decent draw (the two non-runners this evening were drawn inside her, effectively meaning she is now drawn in stall three). We know she likes a fast surface as her best performances last year were on good to firm ground. She has also performed well when running over this trip, most notably when 2nd in a decent race at Newmarket despite being switched midway through the race from the far side to the stands’ side. She has had just the one run as a 3 year old, out the back not getting a clear run before staying on well enough on ground which probably didn’t suit her. We think she could improve significantly upon that effort now that she races back under what appear to be favourable conditions.

Whilst we think the selection has a great chance this evening and we feel that she is over-priced, we cannot get carried away. This is a 3 year old handicap, the type of race we won’t play in that often, the type of race that could contain any number of dark horses. Therefore, whilst we have placed a bet we have kept stakes to the minimum. The upside is enough to tempt us and the downside will hardly have any impact at all in the overall scheme of things.

Good luck if you play.