MAKING IT PAY

I'm Still Alive!!!

2009-09-18T23:17:00.003+01:00

EDIT:

There is a non runner in the race now which reduces the field to seven however I have had a 2PT EW bet at 6/1 with Stan James and William Hill. Normally I would only back win only in a seven runner race but if this runs anywhere near to form then the only danger is the favourite and 1/4 the odds 1-2 still makes a bit of appeal. Good luck if you follow me in!!

Well the last few weeks certainly haven't gone to plan and a combination of things good and bad have meant that there has been no time for blogging unfortunately!!

A few weeks back I was really keen on one and after spending about 90 mins going through the race and writing an in depth analysis, I had a strong account selection ready to go. When I went to bed there was only one firm priced up and they were showing 11/2 which I was more than happy to back it at. Well things went downhill from there....I logged on at 8.00 am and they were now showing 4/1 on the horse and by 9.30 this was the price across the boards. I adjusted my staking slightly due to the reduced value but then decided that I would just pass on the bet completely. Wind the clock forward several hours and hey presto it wins by 6 lengths at 3/1!!! To say I was pissed off would be an understatement!!! To put so much time into writing everything up only to receive a hefty whack to the chuds is extremely frustrating to the say the least and it was several days before I could even bring myself to even think about this blog!! Anyway I have been doing reasonably well from my betting over the last few weeks and its time to start posting on a regular basis again.

Due to some added time constraints and a new server at work, I will no longer be able to access the site during normal weekdays. What I intend to do from now on is whenever I find anything which looks of interest I will post it up the night before. In most cases I am not going to have any prices to work with but I will put the price I consider to be value and go from there. I am going to reduce the amount of analysis but I cannot see any other way of fitting it all in unless this happens.

I have had a decent look at tomorrows cards and I will be getting involved with one horse at the moment assuming the price is available tomorrow. The horse is an old favourite of mine and tomorrow sees it running under optimal conditions in a race which doesn't look overly competitive. The race in question is the 2.25 Newmarket and the selection will be Storyland provided that I can achieve 4/1 or better. The RP forecast is 6/1 but it is currently a little shorter on BF and I'm not holding my breath about getting 6's on this one tomorrow!

There are a few good reasons why I think this warrants backing tomorrow. Firstly it is a horse which needs a long straight to bring the best out in her and the trainer has managed to run her in races at courses which don't reaaly suit her style so far this season. She has also been the victim of at least two poor rides from Miss Milczarek this season and I'm hoping that in an 8 runner race on one of the widest tracks in the country, that she manages to find a way through tomorrow!! The horse won the race last year (admittedly off a 12lb lower mark) but she then followed up with a convincing win off a mark just 3lb lower than tomorrows. Fast ground is ideal, this is her time of year, and she is back running against her own sex in a much easier race than the ones she has been competing in all season. The other key factor is the lack of quality opposition. The fav is priced up on connections and whilst she could still prove to be well handicapped she was hardly impressive when winning a Class 4 handicap on the AW last time and I would be keen to take her on at around 6/4. Most of the others are stepping up in class and/or have doubts about the trip and ground and it really does look an obvious selection to me. Not exactly sure how I'm going to stake the bet as there are only the dead eight declared but more than likely will be going win only.

If I get chance in the morning I will update with the prices and my intended staking.

One or two people have asked me about the whereabouts of Mick. Unfortunately he is not going to be involved in the blog from now on and that means that there will be no further texts or phone messages going out, however he is still following the racing and hopefully he may return if his circumstances change at all. As most people know this was his blog originally and I'd like to thank him for all his help and efforts over the last six months as I appreciate how time consuming it can be.

I hope I haven't rambled on too much and hopefully the new style approach will generate a bit of interest amongst you racing enthusiasts!!!

Bye for now!

Saturday Night Bath Time!

2009-08-22T10:06:00.005+01:00

Good morning,

It's nice to be back refreshed and well after a little family break and whilst I haven't had much opportunity to see any racing I have been keeping an eye on the results and checking out the form.

Today there is one bet for me:

6.15 BATH - DINGAAN - 2PTS WIN (available at 4/1 with Bet365 & Skybet, 7/2 generally)

The racing today looks pretty tough again and I wasn't interested in any of the bigger meetings at Sandown or Chester, I am keen on the selection at Bath this evening and whilst it is carrying a 4lb penalty for winning over C & D last month there is every chance that this will be able to shrug this off now that it has rediscovered the secret of getting its head in front!!

The horse has been rated much higher in the past and indeed has won off a mark as high as 88 (admittedly two years ago) but it has been running very creditably this season and some of the pieces of form have been franked and look very strong in the context of this race. The horse has been campaigned largely over 6 and 7F but its last two starts over the mile trip have seen it run two very encouraging races. Two starts ago it finished 2nd to a very progressive horse of Sir Michael Stoute's that has since won again and was then sent off a very short favourite in a much better race at Haydock off a 14lb higher mark. Three further winners have come from the horses that finished behind Dingaan that day and the form looks rock solid. Last time out on its first visit to Bath, Dingaan won a shade cosily after not getting the clearest of runs and again the form has been franked with the second winning since and the 4th winning twice. A 4lb rise doesn't look enough to prevent this from running a big race again today and I'm very keen on its chances. On the downside the horse has looked a little bit of a dodgepot in the past but it certainly hasn't shirked the issue the last twice and David Probert is 1 win and 1 second from his two rides on the horse. The stable is firing in the winners at the moment (10 wins from 45 in the last two seasons at the course) and they may just have found the key to this horse once again!!

The opposition looks largely uninspiring and there are a couple of 3yos in the line up who should help us to get a decent price. The likely favourite is Roger Charlton's Cheam Forever who has won its last two starts however it now races off a 10lb higher mark than its first success and is up in grade. The other market principal is Carbon Hoofprint trained by Peter Makin and this one tries to follow up its latest C & D success off a 5lb higher mark. Once again the horse steps up in class and the win came on much softer ground so it remains to be seen whether it will be as effective today. The horse had been getting beaten in lower class races off lower marks and creeping up the handicap as a consequence and whilst improvement from these two 3yos is likely they are going to have to post career bests to finish in front of Dingaan.

Champain Sands will possibly improve on its latest performances back on firm ground where it has posted two of its previous wins and it doesn't look too badly handicapped on past form.

Desert Dreamer finished in front of Dingaan in June at Chester but is 6lb worse off at the weights for 3 lengths and it looks an out and out 7F horse to me, indeed it has only placed once from 8 attempts at a mile or more!

Don Pietro has been running over 10F in claimers and sellers and whilst it is on a winning mark it hasn't won in 11 attempts in a class 4 and I'm not sure that today will be the day.

I Confess ran well at Chester yesterday but looks as though its optimal trip is 7F and it has yet to win after 24 attempts on turf so this cannot be fancied today.

Thunder Gorge will have to defy a career high mark and whilst the trip and ground should be fine this one looks like it needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap before it returns to the winners enclosure.

La Rosa Nostra returns to 8F for the first time since its maiden win and it could bring about a little improvement.however it has yet to win in this class of race and I'm happy to overlook it today.

Top Seed looks to be way out of form and is trying a trip much shorter than ideal and can quickly be dismissed.

A race where there are doubts about many of the horses and I will be disappointed if Dingaan doesn't go close this evening.

Nothing else which I feel is worthy of a mention so I'll leave it there and hope to start back with a decent winner!!

Good luck!

EDIT - Apologies but there will be no texts or telephone messages for the next 2 weeks as Mick has had to go abroad with work and he cannot access the phone as normal.

Decided Against It!!!!

2009-08-21T17:10:00.004+01:00

I am quite keen on one running tonight at Salisbury but I've decided to leave it alone and its a no bet day on my return.

The horse I liked was Solar Graphite in the 7.30 race and I'm convinced that this one is still a well handicapped horse and well capable of winning from this mark. I saw its last two runs and things haven't really panned out for it, at Newmarket it got to the front and idled off a slow pace and was run out of it by a decent Mark Johnston horse and then last time it was well supported at Sandown but nothing went right for it. There was no gallop at all and the winner pinched the race from the front but Solar Graphite had no luck in running and ran on well when the race was over. My main concern for not playing tonight is the possibility of a lack of pace again and whilst the trainer continues to have his runners in decent form (another 3 winners at York today) at odds of about 7/2 I don't think it is worth chancing.

I hope to be back tomorrow with any possible bets for Saturday.

Back From My Break!!

2009-08-21T09:45:00.002+01:00

Good morning and it's nice to be back refreshed and raring to go again after my holiday. I have been keeping a close eye on the results over the last couple of weeks and it was quite fitting that my old friend Sir Isaac finally came good as this has been put up on here on more occasions than any other horse (3 times) and was clearly well handicapped but just needed to have everything fall right for it. Unfortunately for us it didn't condescend to do this when I had put it up but it did bring a wry smile to my face when I saw it had won!!

I have had a good look at todays cards and there are several races which could be of interest. The York Ebor meeting has been going on all week and I have to admit that finding the winners at these meetings is usually a very difficult pastime and looking at the results this week it has been no exception to the rule!!! I will more than likely be concentrating my efforts away from York and I like the look of one at Salisbury this evening although I need to check a few more things out befoe wading in.

I'll be back on here later if there is anything doing and as usual any bets will be posted pre race.

Gags

A Few I Liked But.......

2009-08-08T13:15:00.003+01:00

unfortunately I couldn't find anything that I was comfortable putting up as an account selection.

Saturdays are a notoriously tricky day as there is so much racing going on and it always seems to be very competitive stuff. I will mention the horses I thought could go well but all in all the races were either too tough or the prices were too short.

2.10 Haydock - Angel Rock (7/1) and Lowther (8/1)
5.30 Haydock - Final Victory (5/2)
4.05 Ascot - Proclaim (11/2)
5.10 Newmarket - Flapper (9/2)
4.20 Redcar - Wovoka (15/8) NAP

I will be back in about ten days time and in the meantime all the best and be lucky!!

Another Tough Day....

2009-08-07T15:17:00.002+01:00

Todays racing has the same look and feel to it as yesterdays and with the inconsistent weather causing ground changes all over the place it is a quiet day again and I have nothing strong enough for the account.

Musselburgh looks the pick of the action and I could see Strensall going well in the 8.10 race however the shape of the race is not particularly good and there is a short priced favourite which probably should win.

I will be back on here tomorrow before taking a 10 day break for my annual holiday so lets hope we can sign off in style with a decent selection tomorrow!!!

Nothing To Get Excited About!!

2009-08-06T13:39:00.002+01:00

I have to say that todays racing was pretty uninspiring stuff and it was a very easy decision to conclude that there was not account bet. The only meeting of any interest was Haydock and I'm a little unsure of how the ground will be riding given the RP forecast of Good/Firm for the 6F races but Soft for all the others!

The races I liked were the longer races anyway and I based my analysis on the forecast soft ground. The ones which I liked all be it not strongly enough for the account were Mull Of Killough in the 3.40 and Hucking Heat in the 4.40 and thought that both of these could go well. Mull of Killough looks to be progressing nicely and on a strict interpretation of his 3/4 length defeat behind Firebet looks to be well in here off a mark of 89. Firebet has gone on to win a decent handicap at Newmarket which has produced other winners and last time was runner up in a Group 3 contest and is now rated 108. The ground would be a slight unknown but with a dry day forecast I think it may not be as bad as they think and this could go close. 5/2 is the top price (it was 3's when I was looking last night) and there is not a great deal to get excited about there.

Hucking Heat has won over the course and caught my eye when meeting with plenty of interference on its latest start in a Ladies riders handicap at Beverley. It has won over this course before and has won off higher marks on the AW and will act on soft ground. Many of its rivals today are either out of form, don't appear to like soft ground or are high enough in the handicap but it looks a trappy race overall and at single figure prices I'm not really interested in getting involved.

I'll be back tomorrow and hopefully there will be more of interest!!

Nothing For Wednesday

2009-08-04T23:23:00.002+01:00

Well the rain certainly came down today but unfortuntely so much so that it caused both flat meetings to have to abandon races and therefore the selection never got a chance to prove its worth!!!

There will be nothing from me during Wednesday day as I'm away with work and won't be able to post anything however there is an interesting looking card at Kempton in the evening and one or two look worthy of a closer look.

If there is anything doing I'll post back on here tomorrow evening.

Singing In The Rain?

2009-08-04T13:21:00.001+01:00

There is one bet for me today:

4.10 Chepstow - Dancing Storm 2pt win (available at 7/2 Sky, 100/30 with Lads, Hills, Coral & Bet365)

When I initially looked at this race I was put off by the shape of the race as there are only 7 runners. After spending a little while going through the runners I decided that one of them looked as though it had everything in its favour and that could not be said of many of the other runners.

The selection is Dancing Storm and this looks to have an excellent chance today under optimal conditions. The horse is currently rated 56 after starting the season on a mark of 61 and is back down to a winning rating having won previously over C & D off 56 and 58. More significant is the fact that it has not run on soft ground this year and this is something that it clearly needs to give of its best. Todays ground is likely to be good/soft at least and this should suit this son of Trans Island down to the ground (no pun intended). Last time out it ran a very encouraging race at Salisbury where the ground was riding fast, making all the running and having everything off the bridle with a couple of furlongs to go. It eventually got collared and ended up fourth but it has dropped a further pound in the ratings and that run showed that it was returning to a bit of form. The other positives are the return to the saddle of Fergus Sweeney who has partnered it in both its course and distance wins, the trainer has an excellent record at this track (nearly 20% in the last 5 years) and the trainer jockey combo at Chepstow is even better (27%). The trainer has hit a little bit of form in the last month or so and with conditions in its favour today I think it will run a big race.

The market leader is the John Dunlop trained Manere Bay and whilst it is unexposed and has ran some creditable races I would prefer to look elsewhere. The trainer has gone 27 runners without a winner which is a concern and the sire has not had a winner at this distance as yet (0-11).

Next in is Respite which is trained by a personal favourite of mine William Haggas. As ever this yard has to be respected but you need to take a leap of faith to back this one today at 7/2 after it's last run where it was never travelling and ended up beaten 16 lengths. Yes you can always forgive a horse a poor run but it has only got a Kempton maiden win to its name thus far and is priced on expectation rather than what it has shown on the course. One to oppose today I reckon.

Inis Bottom doesn't look particularly well handicapped and disappointed on its only start on a soft surface and the trainer has an appalling record at the course with only 1 win from 58 attempts. Enough to put me off today!

Oriental Girl is quite interesting and is handicapped to win again. It has won over C & D before, admittedly on faster going, but has got some winning form on a softer surface off a 4lb higher mark than todays. Last time out it ran in the same race as the selection and travelled well on the wide outside before meeting with a little interference a furlong or so out. It was allowed to come home in its own time after that and is slightly better off with the selection today. Having said that the sire is only 1-34 at the course and the jockey booking doesn't look too significant (1-29 in last five years for this trainer). It could be the one to give the selection most to do but I much prefer the chances of Dancing Storm under todays conditions.

Nesayem is from a trainer who is in a bit of form but he has not trained a winner at the course as yet (0-9). The horse has only run in six maidens so far and whilst she has shown glimpses of ability I think a step up in trip would probably suit and not sure today is the day.

The final one is Rock Exhibition who has been running over hurdles since coming over to this country from Ireland. She has won on heavy ground over there in a fillies maiden but what that form amounts to is debatable and she has shown nothing since to think she is about to win again. Dropping down the handicap all the time but might need a further drop before she returns to the winners enclosure and definitely not one you could back unless you had some inside information!!

Overall I thought the selection was a decent bet at odds of 3/1+ and I will be disappointed if she doesn''t at least give me a good run for my money!!!

Missed The Boat!!!!

2009-08-02T12:05:00.003+01:00

I was all set to have a bet today but unfortunately the price has now gone and I'm not prepared to get involved with something once the value has gone!!

A quick word on the last week or so, I feel as though I'm reading the races pretty well in the main and I've taken a lot of heart from the fact that most of the selections have been placed at least even if we were win only!!!

Yesterday was another frustrating day where the first selection has been given another tactically inept ride from Kirsty (I will not be touching any more with her on) and I think we were a tad unfortunate to not collect on the win part of the bet. Maybe I'm looking through rose tinted spectacles but somehow she has managed to find trouble in running on the widest course in the country and after giving the winner several lengths start she has finished best of all and ended a never nearer third. To be fair the winner has won a shade cosily but it would have been interesting if she had managed to get a trouble free passage. I am certain that Sir Isaac is a well handicapped horse and I'm sure it will eventually win the race it deserves but as far as I'm concerned I'm finished with the horse!!

The second selection has run extremely disappointingly and I cannot offer any excuses other than it can be very hit and miss and unfortunately it has chosen to run a stinker. No real damage done on the day but it would be nice to get a few more winners on the board!!

Today I was keen on one in the 2.55 Chester. 2YO nurseries are not really the kind of race that I get involved with but I am quite keen on the chances of Tukitinyasok from the Roger Fisher yard. The horse has only run three times and all three of these have been over 7 furlongs, but after watching all three starts again I don't think the drop to 6 furlongs will inconvenience it as it has plenty of early pace and travels really well. It has the plum draw in stall 1 and if it breaks well I expect it to be a tough nut to pass. The track should be no problem as it railed really well at Ayr and its latest run looks a cut above anything todays rivals can boast. The others in here are much of a muchness and generally fairly exposed and there must be doubts as to whether some of these would be better at 5 furlongs or worthy of their current handicap marks.

The horse was available at a general 4/1 this morning but is now a standout 3/1 with Lads and as short as 9/4 in a place!! I expect a big run from it but I can't advise it on the account at the current price.

Busy Start To August!

2009-08-01T13:44:00.001+01:00

It's another busy days racing and I have got two selections for the account today.

2.45 Newmarket - 1pt ew Sir Isaac (available at 8/1 generally)

4.40 Thirsk - 1pt ew Squirtle (available at 12/1 Stan James, 11/1 Sporting, 10/1 Corals & Bet365, 9/1 generally)

I'm in danger of following Sir Isaac over a cliff and today will be the last time that I throw any money at him!! We have put this horse up twice before and it was unlucky in running the first time before finishing fourth (I think it merited 2nd) and the last time it traded very short before being fairly comfortably beaten by a well handicapped Godolphin horse. Last time out it was very disappointing but the ground was extremely fast that day and the race was a 4 runner tactical affair and it appeared to hate every minute of it, lugging in behind, and I'm prepared to forgive it. Today will suit it much better and its current mark of 78 looks generous to me given the way some of its previous race form has worked out. 3 runs ago the 1st and 3rd have both won again off higher marks, 2 starts ago the 1st and 3rd have won since so I really believe that this is a well handicapped horse.

Todays easier ground will be much more to his liking and I think the track should suit. The trainer is one of my favourites and he has an uncanny knack of keeping his horses under the handicappers radar and he has a good record in this race with a win and a place from 4 starts. There are a number of rivals who could be improving but most of them are racing off higher marks than they have won from or have had opportunities from the same marks before and I'm very hopeful that we will get a good run from Sir Isaac today .

The second selection looks to have been laid out for this race and has a course record of 2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts. The only time it disappointed was in a much tougher race off a mark of 67 and today it runs off 59 which is much nearer to where it should be. The horse does have the profile of an in and out performer but it was second in this race last year off a mark of 55. It then won over C & D off 57 very comfortably and with a decent claimer taking 5lbs off it today it is definitely on a winnable mark. 1st time up on turf this year it ran out a tidy winner over 17f at Warwick when it was expected to need the run and I get the feeling that we can draw a line through the run at Yarmouth 5 days ago when it failed to get competitive.

The opposition does not look overly inspiring. The favourite Black or Red has been put up 9lbs for winning very easily over this distance at Ffos Las and could still be well handicapped. I am always keen to take these types on as it had already gone up 3lbs for finishing 2nd the time before and at 6/4 it's an easy one to oppose despite the jockey booking looking significant with a strike rate of 40% for the yard.

Secret Ploy is interesting and has won off this mark but it has only ran once since 2007 and I wouldn't be keen on backing this today second run back. Jackday is fairly consistent and was just touched off over C & D last time but has gone up 5lbs as a result and is 8lbs above its only winning mark. A typical horse that pays the price for consistency but not a regular winner!!

Miss Keck doesn't look as though she is particularly well handicapped, Danzatrice would probably appreciate faster ground, Unawatuna is fairly unexposed but doesn't look like a winner in waiting from this mark, Sir Sandicliffe looks to be the selections second string and the other two don't look good enough.

Overall I just think that at a double figure price it is a much bigger price than it should be and is worthy of a bet.

Nothing Strong Enough Today.....

2009-07-31T13:32:00.002+01:00

I thought todays card were quite difficult and whilst I expect one or two horses to run quite well there are enough reasons for not getting involved with them today.

As I have already mentioned I try and avoid Goodwood whenever possible however I do like the chances of Safari Sunrise in the 2.45 today. I has a few quid on at a decent price on Sunday and it showed a tremendous turn of foot in coming from last to first indside the last two furlongs. When you consider that it was checked in its run and still won a shade cosily, it might be able to defy the penalty today. This seasons emerging talent Freddie Tylicki again takes the ride and you really are getting a 3lb pull when he is in the saddle. The horse is still well treated on some of its old form and from stall 14 I think it could go close......only my dislike of Goodwood prevents me from getting involved!!

Over at Bangor another horse which I am watching closely is Danny Zuko, and after running on surfaces which were too soft, it finally gets a nice fast surface to run on today. Last time out I mentioned it as one to watch and it was still going ok and would probably have finished second before all but falling at the last fence at Cartmel. Today it returns to a course where it has winning hurdles form and I think this could run better than the 7/1 odds sugget. Two things put me off today, I would have preferred to see Jason Maguire on it and not the 7lb claimer, and also the presence of a potential handicap good thing of Jonjo O'Neills, which makes its chase debut.

Finally a little mention for a mate of mines horse, Word of Warning which runs in the 3.40 Bangor. This horse has definitely got a race in him and was fancied last time before the torrential rain in Perth put paid to its chances. Today it has the fast ground that it needs and I think a big run is expected. The Vaughan yard has a potential party spoiler though in the shape of Zafar who makes its debut for the ayrd today and the from of its latest run in Ireland has been franked several times and you get the impression that there is more to come.

A good days racing but unfoirtunately nothing really strong enough to get too heavily involved in.

I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts.

Magical Musselburgh!!

2009-07-30T11:06:00.002+01:00

There is one strong bet today:

8.20 Musselburgh - Zabeel Tower 3pt win (available at 9/2 with Bet365, Tote, WH, 4/1 generally)

This is a very obvious selection and I am really keen on this tonight. The horse was a massive success last year winning 5 times and going up 22lbs as a result and importantly it won over this course and distance on 3 of those occasions. The horse started this season off a mark of 72 and in six runs they have managed to get its mark down to 66 (the horse has won off 66 & 69 in the past) and hence looks ready to strike again. Last time out it really caught my eye over 7f at Carlisle where it travelled really well, and without knocking the jockey too much, it was hardly put in the best position and ran on nicely to finish a never nearer 5th. The time before over a stiff 8f at Hamilton it travelled like a dream and after looking a big danger a furlong out it tired and ended up 4th.

The other key factor today is the booking of Tony Hamilton. He has ridden this horse 4 times at Musselburgh and the form figures read 1113 with the only blemish coming of a mark of 73 in a 0-80 handicap where it was beaten a nose and 1/2L in the last 100 yards. The sire stats are tremendous for the course (35%) and although the yard is yet to train a winner this year they have only got a small team and have only had 15 runners all season!!!

Today Zabeel carries top weight in a 0-70, is well drawn for a prominent racer and is up against a really poor set of rivals whom it is hard to find much positive to say about!

The paper favourite is Finsbury and whilst you may think it is well handicapped off a mark of 60, it has only won on turf twice. Those wins came in a seller when it was the best in at the weights and beat a very poor lot, and a 6f Newmarket handicap off a mark of 59. This season it has ran on in all three starts and they have all been over the seemingly inadequate trip of 6f however it looks an out and out 6f horse to me and sire stats of 1-28 at the course, on top of bombing out on the two occasions it has run here, hardly have me rushing to back it!

Next best is Kargan who finally broke his duck on turf last time after 12 previous attempts. That day it won a very poor race from a horse that seemed reluctant to go past and has subsequently been well beaten in its next 2 starts. Kargan has been raised 5lbs for its win and I think it is going to find it very hard to win todays race (or any other for that matter) off this mark.

Liberty Trail is lightly raced and has only had 7 career starts but it looks as though it has been given a stiff enough handicap mark to start out from and it may need to drop a bit in the weights before we see it in the winners enclosure. Runner up over C&D off this mark on his handicap debut, he appears to have regressed since then and probably could have done with being better drawn.

Nufoudh won on its last start over this C&D, in fact it was winning for the first time in 32 attempts! That day it ran off a mark of 45 (runs off 56 today) and won a very weak 0-60 handicap where 3 of todays rivals finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind it. Those four being Only A Splash, Morrochius and Sands Of Barra and I wouldn't like to say in which order they will finish today, however I'd be very surprised if any of the four were good enough to beat the selection given the overall levels of form that they have shown.

Shunkawakhan is worse off at the weights with the selection for being beaten more than 6 lengths over C&D last June and appears to be much better on the AW, Boss Hog had some decent form on the AW last winter when making the running but appears to be ridden differently on turf and despite showing a bit more promise last time at Beverley, it needs to step up to trouble Zabeel Tower today. That leaves us with Forrest Star who is still a maiden after 10 starts and has been beaten 32L and 31L in its 2 starts this season. A drop in the weights and a step up in trip are probably not going to prove sufficient for him today.

As you have probably gathered by now I make a very strong case for the chances of Zabeel and I think the odds compilers could have made a major boo-boo pricing this up as they have!

A quick word on the weather, there is no real rain forecast so it looks as though the ground should be a good racing surface and hopefully no non runners to spoil the party!!

ps there are no worries about the selection on the ground as it has won on good/firm and soft previously.

Nothing For Today!

2009-07-29T10:09:00.004+01:00

I didn't think much of todays racing and it was an easy decision for me to leave it alone. I have always found Goodwood a notoriously difficult track to get right and time and time again my horses seem to get hampered or have no luck in running!

I do think that the filly Ghanaati looks a bit special and if the ground remains fast I think she will win the Sussex Stakes today. I thought her display in winning the 1000 Guineas was sensational and she broke the course record but the victory in the Coronation Stakes was even more impressive and once again she clocked an amazing time. With only 4 runs under her belt she is open to further improvement but the general price of 9/4 is not exactly giving much away and she does face the fellas for the first time. A fascinating race but not one to be throwing much money at.

Just one other horse to mention is Norwegian Dancer in the 4.00 Goodwood. This horse caught my eye on both of its last starts when winning very impressively over 10f at Chester. Today it steps up to 12f for the first time and I think it could bring about more improvement. The jockey gets on well with the horse and in a very tough looking race a price of around 20/1 looks reasonable if you're looking to get involved.

Lets hope there is a bit more for us to go at tomorrow!

Who Needs Glorious Goodwood???

2009-07-28T12:02:00.003+01:00

I'm issuing an early message today as I believe that the two selections I have could both be well supported. I thought the Beverley card was excellent today and it was really interesting going through the last five handicaps on the card, indeed there may be a further bet but with the possibility of a non runner I'm going to wait a while.

I have two account bets at this stage:

4.20 Beverley - Nevada Desert - 1pt ew (available at 12/1 with Tote, Coral,11/1 with Paddy Power , Blue Sq) this is after the 2 non runners

6.00 Beverley - Fossgate - 1pt ew (available at 10/1 with Bet365, 9's generally)

I will go into detail later on but both of these horses are weighted to win and love the course.

Nevada Desert looks to have been laid out for this race today and has won the last two running of this race from higher marks. The trainer and jockey have a fantastic strike rate when teaming up in handicaps at this course (40%) and from a good draw (stall 11) I think this will go close. The odds of 14/1 and 16's in a place are way out of line in my book and it warrants a bet.

Fossgate is a horse that has an excellent course record as well and showed signs of coming to hand on its latest run over C & D. That day it travelled really well and hit the front a furlong out only to fade away and finish 6th. Assuming that this has come on again for the run, combined with a further drop in the weights (it actually has to carry 2lbs overweight but still on a good mark), it has a decent draw in stall 9 and is 2.5 times the price of Shaylee whom it is weighted to finish very close to. The only slight negative I can find is the jockey, Royston French is 0-17 when riding for James Bethell however he is a decent jockey and maybe today will be the day he breaks his duck!!

There may be a further bet later on but I think these are overpriced and warrant an early move.

Good luck

Ran Out Of Time!!!

2009-07-27T18:27:00.002+01:00

I've not managed to find as much time as I hoped this afternoon to check out the form and therefore I can't advise anything for the account. The horse I was interested in was Magnifico in the 7.55 Uttoxeter but there are only the dead eight running at the minute and the price is shorter than I was expecting. I still expect this horse to run well and the recent rain at the track will be in its favour. It is dropped into selling company for the first time in its career and wouldn't have to improve much, if any, on some of its recent runs.

A few doubts with runners and the price are enough to put me off though, so we will just have to hope that there is something of more interest tomorrow with Glorious Goodwood kicking off.

Where's The Summer Gone?

2009-07-27T13:03:00.003+01:00

Yesterdays selection ran a respectable race and managed to get in the frame so not a lot of damage done. I was quite pleased that the early morning favourite which I was keen to oppose was out of the frame and the one I made the biggest danger won the race, so not the worst read of a race ever!!!

Todays racing is pretty poor and I could find nothing of any real interest at either Southwell or Yarmouth. I was quite keen on the chances of Charles Parnell in the 3.15 at Southwell as it looks to be a certainty to place and I think it will push the favourite close. Unfortunately the price is shorter than I was hoping for and not interested in getting involved now.

There is one runner at Uttoxeter this evening which I am interested in but with all the rain about non runners are the problem and I'm going to leave it until much later before I make a decision on the race.

I'll be back on here later with my thoughts and the phone message will be updated by 6pm if there is anything doing.

Horses For Courses!!

2009-07-26T14:09:00.000+01:00

We've had a decent couple of days and it's been nice to find a couple of winners for the account. I'm hoping that we can continue the recent run with one account selection today:

3.00 Carlisle - Rowan Lodge 1pt ew (available at 4/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred & WH, although 9/2 was available when the texts were sent out and the phone line updated)

Rowan Lodge has a great record in these types of races and goes particularly well at Carlisle with a record of 3 wins and a 4th from just 4 starts. The jockey has been successful on him 5 times and clearly they are a force to be reckoned with at this venue in claiming grade. On official figures the horse has a bit to find with a couple of todays rivals but these official marks can be flattering and I would prefer to back a horse which you know is running consistently to its current mark than chance something which has run nowhere near to its official rating of late.

Todays favourite is Hiccups and it tries 8f for the first time in a career that spans 65 starts. I can't say it won't get the trip but the sire stats are 0-23 over a mile which hardly inspires confidence! It has been doing most of its running around sharp left hand turning tracks such as Thirsk and Catterick and todays test will be a completely different kettle of fish. It can't be discounted as it is very well in with the selection on official ratings however I'm happy to take this horse on today. A bigger danger may be Karl Burkes runner, Moody Tunes, who comes here off the back of a decent run yesterday at Newcastle. It loves cut in the ground and is one of the higher rated in the field but I prefer Rowan Lodge over this C & D today.

A case could be made for the Swinbank runner, Ozone Trustee, however it has a bit to find with Moody Tunes on yesterdays running and happy to take it on.

Of the rest only Portrush Storm makes any appeal and whilst this could be in the shake up (booking of Seb Sanders is quite eyecatching) it would have to improve markedly on what it has been showing of late.

Overall I thought Rowan Lodge was a decent bet to make the frame at least and I make it the most likely winner.

Elsewhere there is a decent card at Ascot and I will be having a few quid on Storyland in the 4.35 race. This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and todays race looks tailor made for a big run. The race is highly competitive however and that prevents me from putting it up as an account bet.

All the best

Gags

One For This Evening...

2009-07-25T17:07:00.000+01:00

One bet this evening for me:

6.00 Salisbury - Gallego - 1pt ew (available at 9/2 with Lads, Sportingbet, Stan James and WH)

Gallego has a record of 3 wins from 3 runs at this course and was victorious in this race last year off a 3lb lower mark but then went on to win at Sandown off a mark 4lb higher than todays. Last time out he came with his customary last to first run and won over 7f and a 3lb rise hardly looks insurmountable. The ground should be ideal and the jockey has struck up a fine rapport with the horse so everything looks in place for a big run.

A quick word on the price, this appears to be quite weak in the market and I'm hoping that the shrewd money comes nearer the off for it.

There are one or two rivals who could have improvement in them but I'll be disappointed if Gallego isn't in the shake up at the finish.

Good luck

Gags

More Of The same?

2009-07-25T14:06:00.006+01:00

A welcome winning day yesterday and whilst I don't have a selection for the account at this stage there is a very strong possibility that there will be something for this evening.

There is plenty of racing today and a number of races which I looked at in some depth. I was quite keen on one at Newcastle but it seems that I wasn't the only one and the price was smashed from 9/1 into 5/1 in the space of an hour!!! My only possibility of an account bet runs this evening and I would prefer to wait until nearer the off as the price seems a little unstable at the minute and not going to rush when it's not necessary!!

Anyway I will let you have my thoughts on the other races but in each case there were enough reasons to leave it alone.

Ascot

2.40 - JIRA.....looks the form pick but a tough race and no value in the price
3.50 - SECRET SOCIETY...looks very progressive and the big field and fast pace should suit. Race tends to be won by 4yos so stats against it but I don't think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest but at 7/1 happy to watch.
4.25 - CONDUIT....the return to 12f is a massive plus and this looks the likeliest winner to me. Only problem is the price of 7/4 and I believe it would prefer a more galloping track.

Newmarket

2.20 - KING CHARLES...this is a horse that has been knocking on the door for some time but finally delivered last time out. Up 5lbs but still could be capable of winning again now it has remembered how to win again. At 3/1 its short enough to put me off even in a fairly weak looking race.

Newcastle

4.10 - URSULA...bolted up the other day and I think it will defy the penalty under ideal conditions. Only 7 runners and a top price of 2/1 is not giving much away.
4.45 - ARABIAN SPIRIT.....I'm quite keen on this one today. It is feasibly weighted and has the soft ground that it needs for the first time this season. Dunlop has a 21% strike rate at the course but I'm a little put off by the booking of Dale Gibson but it should still run well and 7/1 looks a fair price.
5.20 - BRAVELY..this would have been a bet today if the 9/1 that was available earlier still existed!! I suspect it has been put up by a large tipping service as the price has been slashed into a top price 5/1 and I can't get involved with it now. The ground looks ideal and I think it could be a masterstroke dropping it back to the minimum distance as it seems to travel really well.

I will be back later if I'm betting this evening.

Good luck

Gags

Busy Day!

2009-07-24T12:00:00.003+01:00

I'm going to play in three races today and whilst I'm keeping the stakes small I think there are valid reasons for backing them all. The bets are:

4.25 Ascot - Hendersyde - 1PT win (available at 7/2 WH, 10/3 generally)
5.20 Thirsk - Blessed Place - 1PT ew (available at 7/1 Sky, 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally)
6.20 Chepstow - Queen Excalibur - 1PT win (available at 33/1 SJ, 28/1 VC, 25/1 Sky, generally 20/1)

Once again time has dictated that I have to keep my analysis brief but hopefully they will run their races.

Briefly, Hendersyde is the form pick in the race and should be a shorter price IMO against a horse that has won very easily in poor races but gone up the handicap markedly as a result (Alanbrooke). It is clearly improving but it might not get an easy lead like it has on its last two starts and I think it is too short.

Blessed Place ran a good race last time, is well handicapped and finished a close second in this race last year. There are several horses reopposing today and on the formline of that race I make BP the best in at the weights. It is a front runner who has got the ideal draw and I expected it to be a shorter price today.

Queen Excalibur is a hugely speculative selection but I think I may have spotted something that most punters will not have seen. It ran a very creditable race over hurdles last week when runner up in a seller at Worcester and I saw the trainer interviewed prior to the race and he was expecting a big run. It has never won on the flat but a run over course and distance last July was what caught my eye. That day it was 10lb out of the handicap and yet it only just got pipped on the line at an SP of 50/1. Today it runs off its correct mark (which is lower than last years), it goes on soft ground and we know that the horse is in a reasonable bit of form. This could bomb out but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance.

Good luck if you play.

Gags

Thanks and see you soon

2009-07-21T16:51:00.002+01:00

First of all many thanks to everyone who has sent through emails following on from events over the past few weeks. It has obviously been a tough time and I am going to take a proper break from posting on here. As suggested previously Gags will look after things on his own while I am away, although I will still update the phone message as and when he is betting.

I will be returning to posting on here and studying form properly on Saturday 5th September. Hopefully between now and then Gags can come up with a few winners and help pay for my time off. Until then, thanks, good luck and stay healthy.

Couple Of Bets Today...

2009-07-18T13:57:00.002+01:00

I have decided to play in a couple of races today and after watching the first race I'm happy that the ground is riding pretty soft and that will suit the selections:

2.20 Newbury - Festoso - 1pt ew (available at 9/1)

2.50 Newbury - Izzibizzi - 1pt win (available at 16/1)

Both of these horses require plenty of cut in the ground to produce their best and with many of their rivals unlikely to find it in their favour I think that these two are worth a punt at the prices.

Festoso did us a favour the other month and has won a listed race over this trip in heavy ground and it clearly relishes these conditions. On form it has a bit to find with some and whilst I make War Artist the most likely winner we need to see whether its as good on this ground. High Standing has gone up considerably in the weights after winning well in some good handicaps but is another unproven on the ground and in this class. Prime Defender has done all its winning on fast ground and the only other one aside from the selection with form on soft ground is Madame Trop Vite and that is yet to prove it gets 6F. Hopeful of a big run from Festoso and the terms are good.

Izzibizzi is a little speculative, however it should never be the 16/1 outsider in this field. It won over C & D last year on soft ground and that day it had two of todays rivals behind it. It meets both of them on better terms today yet incredibly is 3 or 4 times the price. The trainer is not in the best of form so that is a concern but at the odds it has to be worth a small stakes bet.

A Bet At Last!

2009-07-16T13:17:00.000+01:00

There is one bet for today:

8.40 Doncaster - Best Prospect - 1pt each way (available at 7/1 generally)

This horse is a bridle horse which always travels well in its races but invariably fails to deliver at the business end. That said it has won 6 times on the flat and twice over hurdles so it can hardly be called a perennial loser!! Jamie Spencer gets on really well with the horse and has won four times on it and today the horse runs over a course and distance that it has been successful over before and gets the soft ground that it requires. The horse has won off marks higher than this on 4 occasions and ran a fair race last time whern 3rd at Newcastle just under three weeks ago.

The race does have a competitive look to it and you can give chances to Charlie Tokyo and Rangefinder now they have conditions which should suit but on the whole it faces a number of rivals who might not like the conditions as much as the selection. The horse will be played late and hopefully it will condescend to finish the job off if it gets close enough.

Elsewhere on the day I was quite keen on Danny Zuko in the 2.30 Cartmel but this horse really needs the ground on the fast side and with doubts as to how it will be riding then at 4/1 I can't get involved. Definitely one to keep an eye on when things come in it's favour though!

Over at Bath in the 8.55 race I thought Espy could go close and looks like it is ready to return to the winners enclosure any time soon , however there are one or two others in the field that look like they may have been laid out for the race, Heaven for example, and at odds of around 6/1 I am happy to watch.

Good luck if you play

Gags

Little Of Interest Today.....

2009-07-15T13:41:00.002+01:00

I thought todays cards were very uninspiring and considereing we are supposed to be in the middle of the flat turf season the fact that there is only one full turf meeting at Catterick is rather surprising to say the least....or maybe not when you consider the people who are organising the fixtures!!!

Anyway with all the rain around and the clerks of the courses seeming unable to give accurate going descriptions it is probably not a day for getting too heavily involved. I am having a small trade on Sea Salt in the 3.00 Catterick at the current odds of 14/1 and if the ground is riding on the soft side this will be more suited than many of its rivals. The draw in 12 would normally be a huge negative, particularly over the sprint distances at Catterick, but it can work the opposite way when the ground rides soft. The runners tend to head for the stands rail on such occasions and hence the 12 box would suddenly be a big advantage. Too speculative to go mad about and it would need to return to form after some below average performances but having changed stables to Ruth Barr (the grand-daughter of the legendary sprint trainer David Chapman) then it might rekindle some of its old appetite for the game.

There are a couple that are potentially interesting at Kempton this evening and if there is any action it will be on the phone message by 6pm.

Just a quick word on yesterday, the info was pretty much spot on with the first mention going off a heavily backed 9/4 favourite and running out a cosy winner and the second selection being heavily backed into 4/1 and trading much shorter in running before finishing second. Hopefully I can continue to find horses like this and I'll get some winners back on the main account before too long!

Good luck

Gags

A Few With Chances......

2009-07-14T12:57:00.003+01:00

Todays racing is the typical Tuesday midweek stuff that we have come to expect over the last few years with mainly uninspiring horses running at the holiday resorts!!!!

I was quite keen on one running in the 4.45 at Beverley today but there appears to have been a few quid for this one already this morning and at the current price I can't get involved. The horse in question is Danehillsundance and it is a horse that has been steadily creeping down the weights but definitely showed a bit more sparkle last time over a trip longer than ideal and it is sure to return to the winners circle before too long. A stiff 8f on fast ground looks ideal for it and in a race where there are doubts about several of its rivals (ground, handicap mark) I thought that it was the most likely winner. Happy to swerve the race now the best prices have gone but definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Over at Southwell this evening I thought Echo Dancer could go well in the 8.40 now that it is returned to the C & D of its only previous win (admittedly that was in a weak maiden event) however the trainer has an outstanding record at the course and is always one to keep on the right side of. At 9/1 this is arguably worth a small trade but I'm not going to get heavily involved as there are one or two others in the field open to any amount of improvement and therefore a watching brief I'm afraid.

I'll be back on here tomorrow with my thoughts all being well.

Gags

What Does The Future Hold?

2009-07-13T21:07:00.004+01:00

Following Mick's decision to take a break from the blog for the foreseeable future I have been questioning whether to continue with things...I have given it consideration but I believe that the hard work and effort that we have put into things over the last few months would be wasted if I was to bring the curtain down just yet....As we have explained on here on many occasions it's not getting any easier to find the time to post the selections and analysis on the blog however as I will still be looking at the form each night it would seem silly to completely close things down. I have spoken to Mick and he is prepared to continue putting the messages on the phone, although these may not be as frequent as they currently are (especially when he is away on holiday). If I am having a bet I will post it on here and send the email (when possible) but the analysis may be lacking any real depth depending on the time factor.

I would like to thank everybody who has followed the blog over the last few months and hope they will continue to do so and hopefully we will start to see some results that justify the hard work and effort that has gone into providing this information.

On behalf of Mick I would like to thank all the well wishers and i'm sure it won't be long before he is back up to full speed.

All the best

Gags

Always Look On The Bright Side...........

2009-07-12T09:44:00.003+01:00

This last week has possibly been one of the worst I have had the misfortune to suffer in my life.

Sadly my mum passed away recently and her funeral was on Wednesday. She was a wonderful lady and we will all miss her very much. We turned her funeral into a celebration of her life as that was what she wanted. As if that wasn't hard enough to deal with, my brother's mother-in-law also passed away recently and her funeral was on Thursday. Obviously it has been a tough time for all of us on a personal level.

Professionally things don't look too great either with news coming on Thursday that up to half of the workforce will probably be made redundant in about 30 days time. Whilst this news hasn't totally surprised me it has come at a tough time and I could have done without it. I believe we will all find out in the next week or so whether our services will be required in future or if we need to find alternative ways of earning a living. I won't dwell too much on either the personal losses or the difficulties at work because that's not what the blog is supposed to be about.

So last of all we have the punting. Well yesterday was a real kick in the teeth. I picked out a couple I felt were worth backing in what time I had to study form. One ran well enough and one ran a shocker, but the real nightmare was in seeing three horses we backed last time out all win yesterday, all in similar races. Aqlaam 15/8 at Ascot, Hits Only Vic 16/1 at York and West End Lad 9/1 at Nottingham ran yesterday how we'd hoped and liked to have seen them run the time before. It just shows how fine the line is between success and failure and I guess when when things aren't going your way then this is what happens.

We will be taking a family holiday at some stage in the near future. My dad could do with a break, indeed I think we all could. Until I come back from that break I won't be putting up any more bets or posts on here. If Gags wishes to continue with things while I am away then that's fine by me, but I need to think about things a little. When I do return it may well be the case that I need to make my living from punting and if I'm going to make that work then I need to get back to to what I do best and what has always worked and made money for me. During the last few weeks there have been far too many speculative bets and that's not how I like betting or how I will be betting in future. I will be getting back to basics, much more along the lines of how things were at the start of the year.

As I've already said Gags may well continue with things while I take a break. I will speak with him later and ask him to post just so everything is clear.

For now, from me, good luck and stay healthy.

Saturday 11th July - Two Bets

2009-07-11T13:08:00.004+01:00

Gags is out today and has not had the opportunity to look at any of the racing on offer so I warn you in advance that the bets posted here are entirely my own work. Only time will tell if I've made the right decisions but I can assure you I've had decent bets on both horses. Hopefully the time and effort I've put in will be rewarded and they'll run well and generate a profit.

My first bet runs in the sprint due off at 330 at Chester. If you can forgive my selection his last run when he missed the break somewhat then I think

330 Chester HOH HOH HOH 1 point each way at 8/1 (incl Bet 365, BOG)

has as good a chance as the favourite which is priced up as short as 6/4. In his previous race he ran well in a listed event at Haydock and before that he finished in front of today's jolly in a Group 3 event at Newmarket. The horse has run well at this venue before and has a decent draw today. His trainer is in pretty good form with 4 wins and 7 places from his last 23 runners during the last month or so. In simple terms I just think the horse is overpriced and I had to get involved at the prices. Obvioulsy I can't guarantee the horse will run to form, no-one can, but if he does well I think he must go close.

Over at York the Listed Race for stayers has the Sir Michael Stoute trained Warringhah at the front of the market, but the one for me is

345 York FRISTON FOREST 2 points each way at 9/2 (Lads, Corals and Hills)

who is proven in the conditions, at the trip and in this class of event. I make him the most likely winner and with question marks over some of his rivals with regards to the distance and / or underfoot conditions I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least make the frame.

Nothing is certain in horseracing but if my selections run up to their best then I believe they'll both go close. Let's hope they run to form and enjoy that little bit of luck that all winners can do with from time to time.

Good luck if you are getting involved today.

A Couple We Will Be Trading......

2009-07-06T19:43:00.003+01:00

There was nothing strong enough for the account today but we will probably be getting involved trading a couple at Ripon this evening. In the 8.20 we think Tagula Breeze is overpriced at around 16/1 and can't understand why there is such a discrepancy between this one and The Kyllachy Kid on a line through White Shift. It does look a fairly competitive race however and not one for big stakes.

In the 8.50 we think that Regal Lyric could run better than the 20/1 which is currently available with one of the big firms and it would be no surprise to see this one trade a lot shorter in running. Tate and Fenton have a fantastic course record and any of their horses are worth noting at Ripon. The form figures don't overly inspire but if you go far enough back it has got some decent pieces of form in the book which could see it fairly treated off a mark of 67 tonight. Once again it is far too speculative for an account bet but certainly worth a small stakes trade.

As usual all information is being given out daily on the usual standard mobile number 07807 462697 and the blog/texts/emails will be sent out as and when the opportunites arise.

Good Luck!

No Emails Or Texts Today But..............

2009-07-04T13:12:00.006+01:00

Unfortunately I will not be in a position to send out any emails later today. There is also a chance that Mick might not be able to send out any text messages. As a result any bets we are having today will be highlighted on a message which can be accessed by calling the number highlighted on the right hand side of the blog. This is a standard UK mobile number so anyone with a bundle of free minutes attached to their mobile will be able to call and access our views free of charge. To save you all one call there is no bet this afternoon but there may well be something this evening so a call at 6.30pm or shortly afterwards is advised.

Apologies for any inconvenience but circumstances do not always allow us to operate as we would wish.

Good luck if you play today.

A Busy Thursday

2009-07-02T11:52:00.004+01:00

A busy day with plenty of decent racing on but unfortunately non-runners are playing havoc with the shape and terms on offer in some races.

We concentrated our efforts this afternoon on Haydock's card where we will be trading a couple but we have decided against putting them up as full account bets. The two races of interest are the 310 and 440.

In the 310 we cannot understand why SEA ROVER is still available at 33/1 with Stan James. This horse has form with one of the market leaders, is significantly better off at the weights for a 2 length defeat, has a record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 runs over the distance and clearly loves fast ground. Sea Rover has a decent jockey on board today and we think he could have a big chance if reverting back to a prominent running style with conditions to suit. The trainer's recent form is not great but his overall form at this venue adds to confidence that the horse could be set to run a big race. Of course there is a doubt about whether today is the day, but we think he could run a huge race and trade at a lot shorter than 33/1, allowing us to enjoy a free bet at the least. That's the plan anyway!

The last on the card looks set up for HAWRIDGE KING and TRIP THE LIGHT to run well and our preference would be for the first named who looks well treated for a return to optimum conditions with a positive jockey booking. We have two small concerns with regards to this race, firstly we've missed the boat as far as the really nice prices are concerned and secondly there are currently 8 set to go to post. Obviously one more non-runner would screw up the each way terms if not ensuring a further shortening of the horses price. Hawridge King is, though, our idea of the most likely winner.

We will be having a look at this evening's cards and any bets will be sent out and put on the message by about 6.30pm.

Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.

Lazy Sunday

2009-06-28T13:15:00.002+01:00

There are no bets for us today and nothing really appealed so a day off and our time will be spent in the sun with our families.

Just a quick word about the last few bets, yesterdays selections all ran very poorly. The first two were very well supported but there were no real excuses for either and both ran disappointingly. The later selection was a massive drifter and after watching the race I think we can summise that others nearer to the horses source had a better idea of the way that this one was going to run....enough said!!

Friday saw a welcome winning selection in the shape of Sand Repeal, well backed and running a game race to repel allcomers in the home straight. Unfortunately the other selection didn't run its race and whilst the ground at Newcastle deteriorated and visibility was reduced to next to nothing, the horse has winning form on soft ground so no real excuses.

Lets hope we can start to turn things around sooner rather than later!!!

Apologies...

2009-06-27T10:08:00.002+01:00

As some of you will have noticed we had a 1PT EW bet on Foundation Room on Thursday which finished a disappointing 5th. Unfortunately as has been the case of late we were unable to get chance to post on the blog but hopefully things will improve on that score in the near future.

Friday 26th June

2009-06-26T12:29:00.002+01:00

Three bets today and some views on other races we've had a look at as well. First of all the bets we've placed.

445 Folkestone SAND REPEAL 1 point eachway at 4/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)

825 Newcastle HANDSOME FALCON 1 point eachway at 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)

and a 1 point eachway double at 4/1 and 3/1 (bet placed with Paddy Power, BOG)

Sand Repeal is today running off a winning mark and is a previous course and distance scorer. Three runs back Sand Repeal went well over course and distance and wasn't beaten that far in a race which has produced the winners in four subsequent races. Conditions today should be ideal, the jockey booking is a positive, and we believe Sand Repeal is set to run a big race. Of his rivals Dazzling Begum is 0/9 at the distance, Generous Lad looks well handicapped but is 1/20 at the distance and 1/21 on turf, Good Effect is 0/10 at the distance, 1/15 on turf and 0/5 on a good to firm surface, Karmei is not good enough, Linby hasn't had a run this season, Mid Valley is 1/18 at the distance and 1/14 on turf and Phoenix Hill doesn't look good enough. You have to respect the connections of Pinnacle Point and Rough Sketch but Sand Repeal is our idea of the most likely winner.

This evening at Newcastle our second bet runs in a race where three horses were of initial interest. Rightly or wrongly the three we concentrated on in this race were Minority Report, Orpen Wide and of course the selection Handsome Falcon. Orpen Wide is 2/3 at the course and conditions would seem ideal for him, but he is running off a career high winning mark and at 7 years of age we think he could probably do with some respite from the handicapper. Minority Report is without doubt well handicapped and if in the mood with a first-time visor fitted he could easily win this race, but we think the most likely winner is Handsome Falcon.

There were a few other races we looked at and whilst we may trade one or two of these we decided against further proper bets.

In the 325 at Doncaster we would take two against the field, Tiger Dream 11/2 and Oh So Saucy 8/1.
The 640 at Chester is a tough looking handicap with two non-runners leaving 15 to go to post, but Glenridding 9/2, Zabeel Tower 12/1 and H Harrison 16/1 are the three we'd want to keep on our side if getting involved.
In the 840 at Newmarket an old friend (lol) tries again. If running up to anywhere near his best Wiggy Smith would be massive at this morning's 12/1.
Finally we felt Brassini, short at 2/1, looked to have everything in his favour in the 850 at Chester. Just too short for us.

So there you have it, our thoughts on the day and our bets as placed this morning. Good luck if you get involved.

Blog Update....

2009-06-23T22:08:00.001+01:00

It has been a very frustrating time of late and as most of you are probably aware there has been a bit of a lull in proceedings with both the selections and the blog updates. As I mentioned in one of the latest posts we have had to take a different approach to things due to Mick's personal circumstances and not a lot is going to change there for the foreseeable. However I am still in contact with Mick and he is still getting some time to look at the cards but it is impossible for him to commit to anything. On the other hand I have had a very busy last week or so and with work and family issues intervening I have had very little time to really get stuck into the form study. Things should have eased off a little now though and I expect the blog and selections to get back to where we were a couple of weeks back.

We have put a lot of time and effort into the blog over the last few months and whilst the results of late have been a little frustrating we are not a million miles off the mark and I'm certain that we will be able to push on and start moving the P & L upwards and hopefully start hitting a bit more consistency. One of the things that we are learning is just how difficult it is to stake the selections and also making the right call on certain horses. We have discussed plenty of winners between us but dismissed them for one reason or another and then been hugely frustrated with some of the selections which we have put on the account. Clearly when we get this sorted out it can only prove to be more profitable.

This brings me nicely onto a little change which we will be looking to implement in the next few days. One of the biggest difficulties we have is being in a position to send out the emails, texts and update the blog and this was evident last Wednesday. I had a meeting in London and spent 2 and half hours studying the form on the train on the way down. I had already identified one or two that I liked the night before and decided to have 2PTS each way on Moneycantbuymelove in the last race at Ascot. I spoke to Mick and told him that I'd backed it and he asked if I want it texting out as a bet. This is where the problems start as I was not in a position to send out the email nor update the blog and as there are several people who are on the email list but don't receive texts I decided it was unfair as not everybody would be able to receive the information. The horse went off a well backed 9/2 favourite and ran out a comfortable winner.....Yes we both made some decent money on it but it was highly frustrating that it hadn't gone on the blog account and as a result we have decided to introduce an alternative means of people receiving the info. There will be an update on the blog when we are in a position to introduce it but basically we will be offering a daily message which will be posted on a normal mobile number and will be updated each day by 1pm. If there are bets they will be highlighted on this and if there is any need for a call back later in the day then this will be passed on via the message. Anybody can call this number and it will not cost anything if you are on a mobile contract. We don't believe that we can be any fairer than this and the emphasis will now be on the individual to ensure that they get the selections if they so desire. I will still try and update the blog on a regular basis but this change should enable us to work round our current issues with time whilst still getting the selections across to those who wish to receive them. There will be a section provided on the blog in the next few days which will have all the necessary information required.

Sorry for going on so long but just wanted to reiterate that MIP is still very much a work in progress and looking forward to finding plenty of winners over the coming months.

If anybody has any queries at all please get in touch and I'll be happy to discuss any of the above with you.

Regards

Gags

Royal Ascot Here We Come.....

2009-06-16T13:03:00.003+01:00

Well unfortunately not literally but we do have a selection today!

There is one bet for us today so far:

2.30 ASCOT - 2PT WIN - AQLAAM (available at 11/1 with VC Bet, Lads, Corals, Sporting & Stan James)

Today sees the pinnacle of the flat season with the meeting at Royal Ascot. The racing is always highly competitive and the racing sees all the top class horses competing against one another for the fantastic prize money on offer. Todays card looked difficult as you would expect but we believe that the selection offers a bit of value and warrants a bet.

This race revolves around the Godolphin runner Gladiatorus which is having it's first run for the trainer today. They have kept the faith with the regular jockey and Frankie rides the second string Alexandros. This horse has been producing some awesome times on the clock over the last few months at Nad Al Sheba and has stepped up from handicap company to Group 1 and blown the opposition away with some fantastic front running performances. On official ratings it is the clear pick but it remains to be seen whether a straight mile will suit this one as well as the left hand bends of NAS and at the prices of 5/2 has got to be taken on. Clearly if it is as good as they think it could win this comfortably but we have our doubts and are happy to oppose it.

The next two in the betting are Paco Boy and Main Aim. We believe that there are stamina doubts about both of these today and feel that 7 furlongs would be much more up their street. Paco Boy has run some decent races abut 4/1 about a horse which is yet to prove it gets a truly run mile is on the short side and worth opposing today. Main Aim has been sent off favourite for every race but only on its last two starts has it shown the ability connections believed it capable of. Those two wins whilst impressive on the eye have come in pretty poor races and at 4/1 this is too short for us.

Alexandros was an unlucky loser in the Lockinge Stakes a few weeks back when Frankie lost his whip but whilst it has got some decent form on fast ground we believe that it acts better with cut in the ground and could come up short today.

Cesare is an admirable horse who is very consistent but not sure it is really up to Group 1 class and expect it to find at least one or two too good today.

Arabian Gleam and Dream Eater are held by a couple of these today and hard to see them being good enough, which leaves us with our selection Aqlaam.

Aqlaam was very impressive last year when winning the Jersey Stakes over 7F and the sky looked to be the limit for this horse. It had a setback after that race and didn't run again until the Lockinge Stakes this year where it finished 10th of 11 and was well beaten. Strictly on that run it has no chance today however this horse wants fast ground and it would have needed the run that day. If you consider that Haggas rates this as the best horse in his yard and forgive its last run for the reasons mentioned, then at 11/1 this looks overpriced. There is a chance that it won't get the mile trip, but we believe it will, and the breeding certainly suggests that it should. Happy to play up a few points on this one today in the hope that it returns to the form of last season and that the favourite has been overrated.

There is a possiblity of a bet elsewhere this evening and as always we will let you know if that's the case.

Good Luck

Catch Up...

2009-06-14T10:44:00.004+01:00

Friday was a little frustrating, with our biggest win bet to date running well but ultimately finding the Godolphin runner too good on the day and whilst it looked as though it would win for a moment (traded 1/4 in running) the winner won a shade cosily in the end. Our other runner refused to go in the stalls and was then withdrawn and again it was frustrating to see the well backed favourite turned over as we believed that we had got a few lengths in hand on this.

Time unfortunately prevented us posting up or getting involved yesterday and due to some serious family matters, Mick will be struggling to find the necessary time to assist with the blog for the foreseeable future. Mick has agreed to leave me solely responsible until things are right for him to return but it is likely to mean that there will be less frequent posts and account bets. I will still be getting stuck into the form as much as before and I'm sure Mick will get some time to look himself, so please be assured that the selections will still have been thoroughly researched and will be carrying our money.

Nothing doing today, Esteem Machine (2.30 Salisbury) ran a very eyecatching race at Sandown last time when it finished 4th but it was a 25/1 shot that day and the secret is out of the bag and a top price of 9/2 doesn't really appeal.

Support Fund (4.15 Salisbury) is also worth a second look and was very unfortunate last season over C & D when poorly riden by a young apprentice. The ground will probably be a little on the fast side today and its probably a race to watch rather than get involved in.

Over at Doncaster there are a couple worth keeping an eye on. In the 3.30 Seamus Shindig who ran much better on its latest start than the bare form figures suggest, however the better prices have gone this morning and it looks a tough race. In the 4.05 race I like the chances of the McCabe runner, Well Of Echoes at the prices, following a decent run last time out and looking sure on breeding to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs today. One or two at the front of the market namely, Hukba and Honours Stride appear to have been priced on connections rather than form and taking these types on is a good way to be profitable in the long run. A few other unexposed types in here make this a little bit speculative for a bet today but I couldn't put anybody off.

Good luck if you get involved today and I will try and keep the blog updated as much as possible.

A Busy Day.......

2009-06-12T12:45:00.003+01:00

There are 3 bets for us today:

3PT WIN - 3.50 SANDOWN - SIR ISAAC (available at 11/2 with Lads, Corals, Hills, Skybet, Betfred & Stan James)
2PT WIN - 8.00 GOODWOOD - LECEILE (available at 9/2 Lads, 4/1 generally) - Withdrawn before race
1PT EW DOUBLE ON BOTH

Today is obviously a very significant day for us and we believe that we have found two horses which have massive chances and we are very keen on them both.

We backed Sir Isaac last time out and after missing the break it was left stone last. Milzcarek opted to try and come up the stands rail and after travelling strongly she was caught in behind horses about 2F out and basically had nowehere to go. Once the gap appeared the horse stayed on nicely without ever really being asked any questions and can definitely be rated better than the literal form. Today it is stepped up another furlong which we believe will help (certainly the breeding suggests it will) and the slightly easier ground should also not be any inconvenience. The sire has a fantastic record with his siblings at this course and the Haggas/Milzcarek combination have a strike rate of over 42% when teaming up together. The selection looks to be a better animal than its current mark and we think this could be rated much higher in the future.

Of its rivals there are obvioiusly one or two potential improvers and chances can be given to Laudatory and Pride of Kings but we feel that these are closer to their true marks than the selection today. The Dunlop runner looks badly handicapped on what it has achieved so far and looks one to oppose at the prices. All in all we would be very disappointed if Sir Isaac doesn't go close today and with a clear run should take all the beating.

The other selection today, Leceile, pipped one of our account bets by the minimum distance last time out when winning a soft ground maiden at Newcastle. The final result doesn't really do Leceile any justice as she had the race won some way out that day and just got tired in the closing stages. That was only her 3rd appearance and foillowed a couple of decent efforts on the AW in races which have thrown any number of winners up since. If you compare the selection with todays favourite, Just Like Silk, on a line with Fortuni, our selection should have the measure of this comfortably and with the Haggas/Milzcarek combination 2 from 2 here and decent sire and trainer stats to boot we think she could be leniently treated off a mark of 75.

Eastern Aria has been doing most of her running on the AW and doesn't appear to be overly well handicapped on form to date, Advisor was well beaten over a furlong less here last time and doesn't appear to be crying out for a longer trip, Hambledon Hill needs to improve but has run one or two fairly encouraging races, Red Suede Shoes makes his turf debut but has proved that it gets the trip at least and the others look as though they need to show improved form to figure here today. We are very sweet on the chances of Leceile and are surprised that she is not favourite today.

All the best

Great Yarmouth??

2009-06-11T14:01:00.001+01:00

There is one bet so far for us today:

1PT WIN - 4.35 YARMOUTH - MAFAHEEM (available at 10/1 with Skybet & Paddy Power, 9/1 generally including BOG bookies)

We are up against it for time again today but this horse is well handicapped on old form and has ran twice over C & D resulting in a win and a 3rd. The horse has been mainly campaigned on the AW of late and won off a higher mark than todays in January however it has a very good record after a break (won twice before after a break of 2 months or more) and the trainer is in good form. He also has a better record at Yarmouth than anywhere else and there is a chance that this horse has been targeted at a race like todays for some time.

There are a few of the others that are well handicapped and therefore it is not a strong bet but at 10/1 we believe that this is overpriced today and worth a minimum stakes bet.

There is another horse which we like running today and we will be back later if we are betting.

Good luck

Drawn into a bet........

2009-06-10T13:14:00.001+01:00

There is one bet for us today so far:

1PT WIN - 3.40 HAYDOCK - CALLIGRAPHER (available at 8/1 with Blue Square, 15/2 Corals and 7/1 generally including BOG bookies)

Todays selection is overpriced in our opinion and there are good reasons to believe that this could run a big race today. It has only had 4 career starts, running down the field on debut before winning a 6F Pontefract maiden. It was then pitched into a conditions race at Lingfield where it was sent off at odds on but finished a well beaten 4th of 5. We believe that the horse was ill at ease around the tight turns of Lingfield and whilst its breeding suggests that it should have had no problem with the all weather surface it may be a case that this is better on the turf. This season it has had one run, a pipeopener in a very decent Class 2 handicap at Newmarket where it ran well for a long way before fading and finishing 13th of 14. The winner of the Lingfield race and subsequent 5th in the Newmarket race, Global City, reopposes today and strictly on weights and measures this should beat our selection. This is currently trading at around 11/4 favourite and with a run under its belt and at a track where the trainer and jockey have an excellent record we believe that at 7/1 or bigger Calligrapher is overpriced. The other thing worth considering is the form of the Jarvis stable as when it made its reappearance the stable were not enjoying a particularly good spell but there have been signs of late that they are hitting form again and this can only be a good thing for the chances today. Robinson also goes there for this ride before shooting off to Kempton to ride a couple later on.

White Shift is a filly that was highly tried as a 2 year old and after running creditably in some of the top filly races she flattened off and was struggling to cope with the handicap mark she achieved. So much so in fact that she contested a claiming race at Bath which she duly won with any amount in hand. Since then she has followed up in a Class 4 handicap at Newmarket before running 2nd last time out however she is now 7lbs above her last winning mark and its possible that the handicapper has caught up with her.

Wedding List represents the high flying William Haggas yard and anything he sends out has to merit respect. Wedding List is beautifully bred and has only had the 3 runs to date but on closer inspection of her form a mark of 84 hardly seems generous. After being well beaten in a maiden at Yarmouth she then finished 2nd at Great Leighs befiore winning her final start very cosily. She had the run of the race that day and nothing that finished behind has come out and franked the form. The form of her 2nd has not been advertised either and we think she will have had to improve significantly to take this.

Parisian Art comes from a big stable who are capable or readying one first time out but a debut maiden win has seen this one achieve a mark in the mid 90's and whilst the handicapper has given it some relief we think it may need to drop a little more before it wins races like this.

Spiritofthewest has won a soft ground maiden over 5f at Beverley and ran some fair races in defeat since, although it does need to prove that it gets 6F and has had enough chances to do so.

Diggeratt will probably prefer the faster ground today than on its seasonal reappearance but it needs to step up a bit on last years form as the races it was competing in were much weaker than todays. The jockey booking would not inspire confidence either but I suppose the price of 25/1 reflects this.

Desert Falls is one which could run better than its odds suggest. There is a line of form from earlier in the season that gives it the beating of White Shift and you can probably put a line through its last run at Chester when it was badly hampered and any chance went. The trainer has come into a bit of form in the last week or so and at prices of 16/1 and bigger this could run a decent race.

Overall we believe that Calligrapher is a better horse than it has shown on its latest starts and at the prices today merits a minmum stakes win bet.

There are some horses of interest later this evening and if we feel that they are worthy of a bet an email will be sent out later on.

Good Luck

Here's To You Mr Robinson

2009-06-09T19:22:00.002+01:00

The closest we came to a bet this evening was Bertoliver in the 5 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 845pm. Phillip Robinson is back on board the horse tonight and we'd expect him to ping out and race prominently. If Bertoliver produces anything approaching the level of form he achieved under this jockey last May over c and d then he must go close. Unfortunately neither of us have found enough time today to complete the full race form study and analysis, therefore we are not putting this up as a bet. Assuming he doesn't make a mess of the start (and yes, that has happened to one or two of our supposedly well drawn fancies recently) we believe he'll trade shorter in running than the 5/1 he's available at as I write this and we may try and trade him for a few quid.

So no bet today, hopefully we'll have some time tonight to have a look at whatever is on offer tomorrow. Good luck if you get involved this evening.

Apologies.....

2009-06-09T12:46:00.002+01:00

Yesterday was another example of how difficult finding the time to do all the necessary study and analysis really is. I was away for a couple of days however I had agreed with Mick that if he was keen on anything that he should send it out as a proper bet via text to those concerned. I was not in a position to prepare and send out the email and due to unforeseen personal circumstances Mick was unable to post any details of the bet on here. To keep things fair on the blog the bet has been recorded on the P & L and those who only receive the bets via email or from the blog have saved themselves a point!!

Looking forward we are constantly trying to improve the way we do things and recognise that whilst it's a case of two steps forward and then two steps back, we are not doing too badly considering. There are a number of areas where we need to improve things, it is just a case of ensuring that time allows. One thing which we will be doing is increasing the number of 1PT win bets on horses which we feel are overpriced and whilst there may be a bit of speculation over some of them we believe with a combination of form analysis and statistical data these will prove profitable in the long run. We both have very busy day jobs and there are only so many hours in a day, and whilst it would be great to post up all our thoughts with in depth analysis quite frankly this is not really possible at the minute. As always we welcome any feedback and suggestions (please keep them clean) and hope that people are enjoying the blog as a whole. Please feel free to take up the option of texts/emails by clicking the link at the top right of the page.

As far as todays racing is concerned the afternoon cards looked difficult and I have concentrated my efforts on the evening card at Chester. As most people know this is a very tight track where a low draw is a big advantage, particularly over the sprint distances, and as usual there are a number of non runners (unsurprisingly the ones drawn widest of all). There is one race which looks potentially interesting and I want to spend a bit longer on it so if there is anything of interest it will be up here later on.

A Sign Of Things To Come?

2009-06-07T23:30:00.005+01:00

A hugely frustrating week for us with three bets on the blog failing to produce a winner. That only tells half of the story. If we'd put up our "mentions" as selections and backed them with just minimum stakes we'd have secured a very healthy profit this week.

On Monday we backed Brierty and we were happy with the way the horse ran. On this occasion the jolly proved to be in a different league to the rest of the field and we had to settle for second. We can live with that as we know that in the long term we'll take on and beat enough short priced favourites with the same sort of profile to make it more than a worthwhile venture.

On Tuesday we liked Fastnet Storm and both of us backed the horse at 6/1 the night before. Unfortunately on Tuesday the horse was only available during the morning and early afternoon trading at a best price of 4/1. Of course we could have put it up as a blog bet and not worried about the price, especially with one of the main contenders having been withdrawn from the race. However, we didn't think it would be fair to anyone following our bets for us to do that so we decided to explain what we'd done but refrain from including it as a selection on the blog. Of course that means another four points minimum missing from the p and l.

On Wednesday a couple of "mentions" ran poorly but we'll keep an eye on them for the future when they may of course be of interest given the right opposition and conditions.

Thursday was a busy day with two bets and once again it was a case of what might have been. The first of our bets was Habshan who simply wasn't good enough. We do not think the same can be said of Sir Isaac. We believe Sir Isaac will in time show this running to be false. We had hoped Sir Isaac would bounce out of the stalls and take a handy position from a favourable draw. Unfortunately Sir Isaac fell out of the stalls to be last of the field and any hopes of a win were lost.

On Friday Gags found one on the all weather but we didn't have time to to carry out the necessary study and analysis in order to decide if a proper bet was appropriate. In the end Gags traded the horse and I didn't get involved at all. The result, a winner as Cool Hand Jake was backed from 15/2 in to 7/2.

On Saturday we both agreed that Kings Destiny should be favourite and was the most likely winner of his race. Hindsight has shown us to have misjudged the form of his previous run but nonetheless he ran a sound race to finish second.

Just today I looked at one race on the all weather and from two mentions, Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, I found the winner and a fourth, the winner backed from an early 16/1 in to and eventual sp of 7/1.

Looking through all of the above it would be fair to say that our study and analysis is still spot on. If all of this week's mentions had found their way on to the blog we'd have seen another three winners and something like another 20 points added to the p and l even after accounting for the losers. Somehow our aim has to be to find the time required in order to complete our study and analysis so that we back these additional winners and of course make them available to everyone receiving our bets free via text and email.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
4 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
2 PLACED (50%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6.00 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
101 BETS
17 WINNERS (16.83%)
36 PLACED (35.64%)
PROFIT / LOSS +50.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.07%

YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (ADVISED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
52 BETS
6 WINNERS (11.54%)
18 PLACED (34.62%)
PROFIT / LOSS +18.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 14.58%

As the headline suggests we would like to think that whilst this week has indeed fallen in to the category of what might have been we will be doing everything we can to ensure the overall picture, bets and mentions, are a sign of things to come. We could certainly do with a financial shot in the arm and I'm sure that comment applies to some of those following our bets in their own way. Lets hope this week sees a welcome upturn in fortunes for all concerned.

After The Lord Mayor's

2009-06-07T13:37:00.007+01:00

What a performance yesterday from Sea The Stars in The Derby. I can honestly say I never thought we'd again see a horse capable of winning top races over a mile and then a mile and a half, especially not in the space of just a few weeks. The combination of attributes required is immense and in my opinion we cannot overstate just how good Sea The Stars is.

As far as we are concerned, our selection yesterday ran a decent enough race before being hampered and finally finishing second. The interference made no difference whatsoever to the result and we obviously underestimated the winner who had previously beaten our selection at Chester. Whilst we were of the view that the Chester winner had enjoyed the run of the race and would struggle to confirm the form at the revised weights, hindsight has proved that we were wrong. As is often the case we were right and wrong at the same time. The morning favourite was one to take on and we got that beat, ironically a stable-mate of the eventual winner. We felt KINGS DESTINY should have been priced as favourite and eventually the market agreed with us. We still seem to be taking a few steps forward and then unfortunately a few in the opposite direction. Earlier on in the week we backed Habshan and he quite simply wasn't good enough. On the same evening card at Sandown we sided with Sir Isaac and we both remain convinced he will in time prove to be the best horse in that race. Despite falling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running he finished not that far off the front. We are sure he'd have been right in the mix if he'd have started better and been in a position to take advantage of the draw. Then of course on Tuesday we were with Fastnet Storm but we felt we couldn't put him up on here at 4/1 when we'd backed him at 6's. That's racing and of course the blog will show three losing bets this week. Under different circumstances and with a little more luck in running we could have been showing two wins and a healthy profit. As always we'll take it on the chin and move on as we know things will even themselves out over the course of the year. I'm busy this afternoon but I will post up the summaries later this evening.

As far as todays racing goes, I spent a fair bit of time on the 440pm at Southwell. Two which you may find worthy of a second glance at half decent prices are Byron Bay and Ten Pole Tudor, both trading at around double figure odds.

Good luck if you get involved.

Derby Day!

2009-06-06T13:12:00.002+01:00

Today is the highlight for many flat lovers as the premier race the Derby takes centre stage. We feel that this is a very open race this year and have nothing strong enough for the account although we both think that Black Bear Island could be the one that is overpriced. We have however had a bet in the 2.50 Musselburgh:

2PTS WIN - KINGS DESTINY (available at 3/1 generally including some BOG firms)

We have decided to get involved with Kings Destiny today as we believe it should be the favourite in the race and a price of 3/1 offers a little bit of value. Last time out it was beaten by one of todays rivals, Quai D'Orsay, by 3&1/4 lengths but reopposes on 3lb better terms today. Strictly that should enable them to finish virtually level however we believe that QD had the run of the race that day and our selection will reverse the placings. There is a fair possibility that Fanning will try and set this up for the more fancied Johnston runner today, Alanbrooke, who is put in as favourite, however we feel that this one could do with a bit more cut in the ground and arguably wants a more galloping track. In our opinion the level of form it has shown to date doesn't merit such a short price today. Holyrood is sent up by Stoute, which is always worth noting, however this one hasn't really achieved very much so far, winning a slowly run 10F Yarmouth maiden (odds on) prior to running a fair race over 10F at Newbury. The visor is applied today but we have our doubts as to whether this one will relish the additional distance of todays race. Nom Dom and Citizenship are closely matched on a previous run at Leicester however Citizenship is held by the selection on a couple of pieces of form and therefore we cannot fancy either today. Cosmic Sun should improve for the step up in trip, although it needs to show a lot of improvement to be involved today, and the others are very hard to fancy. This brings us back to Kings Destiny. This horse ran in some decent backend maidens last year over a mile and ended up winning its final start very easily. There have been a few winners since from that race and the form looks solid. First time up this season it was stepped up to 10F at Leicester and landed a decent handicap, getting up late on to beat horses which have since franked the form. Last time up it was sent off favourite for a 12F race at Chester and we're prepared to forgive it the run, as it was held up and had to challenge widest of all and it was no surprise to see it fade at the finish. Today back on a more conventional track we expect it to go close and it has produced the best form of all todays runners. The sire has an excellent record at the course (38%), the trainer is 4 winners from his last 7 runners (overall) and the fact that Robinson goes to Musselburgh for just this ride is fairly significant in our opinion.

Good luck if you play.

There is a possibility of further bets and as ever these will be sent out in good time.

Quick Catch Up....

2009-06-05T12:28:00.002+01:00

There is nothing for the account at the moment and I have to say that we have had very limited opportunity to look at todays form. We will however be getting stuck into the evening cards and if there is anything of interest then it will be posted up later on.

As far as yesterdays selections went, whilst they both proved to be losing bets, they ran very contrasting races. Habshan was disappointing and never really looked like threatening the judge and has not run to the level of its seasonal debut. Sir Isaac however was very frustrating, as one of the principle reasons for playing in this race was that it had the plum draw and was likely to race prominently. What happens? It falls out of the stalls and Milzcarek seemed intent on letting everything go in front of her and the race was effectively lost at the start. The horse itself ran a cracker and finished a never nearer fourth, and whilst it would never have caught the winner, I think with a clearer passage it could well have finished 2nd. Not a lot of good to us but definitely a horse to keep an eye on for the future and if the situation and conditions are right must be one to keep on the right side of.

Sandown Sizzlers??

2009-06-04T17:10:00.002+01:00

Only a couple of days ago we backed a cosy winner of a handicap confined to 3 year olds. At the time we said these were not our favourite type of races but that whenever we felt we were able to obtain a value price about our idea of the most likely winner then we would get involved again. The 7 furlong Class 4 Handicap due off at 7.15pm falls into that category. The reason these races are so difficult for punters is simple. Too often a number of the runners are unexposed, therefore it is difficult to dismiss them as not having a chance. In all honesty we are unable to totally dismiss a number of the runners in this race but we are still quite keen on one and have decided the odds are sufficient to enable us to get involved. Our decision to play win only is dictated by the shape of the race and the fact that we are unable to get the race down to just two or three runners.

Advertise – ran three times as a 2 year old, performing well first time out over 6 furlongs on fast ground in a Goodwood maiden which has thrown up a number of winners. He went on to win his next race, a soft ground maiden at Warwick, before finishing down the field in a Class 3 event at Doncaster. So we don’t think the ground will be a problem and the trip should be fine, but we don’t know if the horse has trained on or if he’ll like the combination of fast ground and 7 furlongs. This one is also drawn widest of all which hardly helps.

Beautiful Breeze – won one from five as a 2 year old and one from two as a 3 year old. He won a Class 5 event last time out having come up short before that in a Class 3 event at Beverley. Up 6lb for the victory, we feel that others have more scope at this trip.

Brave Echo – was beaten 13 lengths last time out (first run as a 3 year old) and 20 lengths in his last run as a 2 year old, both on ground with cut (last year connections stated the horse didn’t like soft ground), yet he is 4/1 best price for this event this evening. Obviously he comes from a very powerful yard and a number of winners have come out of the Leicester maiden he won as a 2 year old on good ground. Despite the fact that there is money for him (indeed he could go off favourite) and that J Fortune takes the ride, we prefer to side with one having shown better recent form.

Cyflymder – has two wins from eight career starts, a soft ground maiden and a Linfield all weather Handicap. We prefer to look elsewhere.

Durgan – has raced only three times and hasn’t shown enough for us. Of course he could improve significantly upon what he has shown to date but we would need to see more before getting involved.

Head Down – has shown he handles a fast surface and that 7 furlongs suits him, but is up 5lb for winning his 11th career start and that was a run of the mill maiden on the all weather at Lingfield. We think he’s more exposed than some and not for us today.

Key Signature – we think this one will struggle to give the weight away to one or two less exposed rivals.

Major Phil – is another from a powerful yard. He is unexposed and the jockey booking can hardly be described as a negative.

Master Fong – is yet to race as a 3 year old and as such we couldn’t back him today.

That leaves us with our selection which we have backed with firms offering the bog concession. This could drift as there seems to be a bit of money around for one or two of the others.

715 Sandown – SIR ISAAC 2 points win at 4/1 with Sporting Bet (7/2 generally)

Our selection has run and won as a 3 year old. He has been given a break of a month and now steps in to handicap company. He stayed on well to win his maiden at Goodwood in the style of an improving horse. The fact that he was allowed to go off at a sp of 16/1 that day suggests that the result wasn’t totally expected. We believe there could be a lot more to come from this horse. So apart from the fact that he won his maiden over 7 furlongs at a top track, what else is in his favour today? Well, connections could hardly be in better form could they? The trainer has had 7 winners from his last 16 runners and the trainer and jockey have a 50% strike rate when teaming up. If you also consider that the sire has a 40% strike rate at the course and that the selection has the best of the draw, particularly for one likely to be ridden prominently, then we don’t think it takes too long to work out that he could be a fair bit better than a 75 rated animal. All things considered we believe 7/2 represents a bit of value and if the price drifts then even better.

We have also bet in the following race, the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap due off at 750pm. The first thing we should say is that we respect the chances of the jolly and we agree it probably has at least as good a chance of winning as any other of its rivals, but we believe there is significant value to be had by looking elsewhere.

Annabelle’s Charm – she must have a good chance of picking up the prize, but she has been a beaten favourite on more than one occasion.

Ballinteni – is 0/7 at the distance and 0/9 on fast ground.

Cotswolds – an unexposed M Johnston horse but on what we’ve seen we couldn’t back him.

Ellemujie – cannot be dismissed and has form lines which tie in with one or two of the other runners. We just feel that better value lies elsewhere.

Hurricane Hymnbook – beaten almost a combined 40 lengths in his last three runs.

Miss Glitters – has only run four times, therefore unexposed, but up in trip and class today. Not for us at the prices.

Mujood – has been in fine form recently and is another with collateral form. Another bold bid could be on the cards but we prefer another one today.

Ocean Transit – doesn’t look good enough.

Prince Of Thebes – could be well handicapped and is an attractive price. We are just concerned that he doesn’t seem to be finishing off his races that well. He may well pop up at a price but we can’t back him today.

Willow Dancer – has form with a couple of rivals, but if you fancy this one then surely you have to consider our selection at bigger prices.

So that brings us to our selection for the race:-

750 Sandown – HABSHAN 1 point win at 10/1 with Stan James (bog), Skybet and Ladbrokes

Habshan is now 9 years old but is only lightly raced and he showed he retains his ability when running a cracking race to finish 3rd of 12 behind his stable-mate on his seasonal reappearance. In the past he has won on his second outing and all of his seven career wins have come at this distance, five of them on fast ground and one at this venue. Of course he will need luck in running but the trainer / jockey have a great record when teaming up. We have played because we believe he has a live chance and his odds are bigger than they should be.

Good luck if you get involved today.

Hamilton And Lingfield

2009-06-04T11:05:00.003+01:00

The afternoon cards are not exactly inspiring so we have concentrated our efforts on the evening card at Sandown. We have had a couple of bets but as the emails and texts have only just been sent out to those on the lists we will wait until later before updating the blog.

Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.

Ripon Again

2009-06-03T17:52:00.003+01:00

We didn't like the Kempton race this evening but the 8 furlong Class 3 Handicap at Ripon due of at 810pm looks fairly interesting. In the end we are unable to put up a bet because we haven't both had enough time to work through all the different factors required. For those interested I think the two most interesting horses in this field are KINGS POINT and MINORITY REPORT, ironically both representing the D Nicholls stable. I have a slight preference for the former but since we haven't both had sufficient time to carry out all of the study and analysis we would have liked we are left with no option but to put them up as "mentions" and not proper "account" bets. Whatever the outcome, win or lose, these will not figure in our p and l. If some of you want to back or trade them then that is a matter for you and we naturally wish all the best of luck.

Gags will be back on here tomorrow lunchtime if we are betting in the afternoon.

A Quiet Wednesday Afternoon

2009-06-03T11:16:00.004+01:00

We are not betting this afternoon but we are looking at one race at Ripon and another at Kempton this evening. If we get involved we will update on here later.

Good luck if you are betting this afternoon.

Tuesday Evening At Folkestone

2009-06-02T17:50:00.005+01:00

As anyone reading the blog will know we traded a comfortable winner earlier on today. Last night the only firm pricing the race up allowed us a "monkey" between us at the early 6/1. At that stage we were fairly sure the horse would go off and / or trade much shorter, allowing us a free bet on one we fancied to run a big race. I must point out that Gags deserves most (about 99%) of the credit for this one as he identified it and pretty much had it sewn up before asking my opinion. Between us we had the race between four runners at that stage but with FASTNET STORM looking over priced. This morning one of our "four" was declared a non-runner, effectively leaving us with three possibles and one fancied more than the others. We discussed putting it up as an eachway bet and / or as a win selection on the blog, but in the end we didn't think it was fair. Whilst this blog is here to record our progress as we strive to achieve our targets throughout the year, we are very much aware of the fact that some people are following our bets with their own money. We didn't think it was right to say "we have backed this at 6/1 but the biggest price you can get now is 4/1". So instead Gags posted and let everyone know what we had done. Whilst we've made a few quid and we know many readers of the blog have followed us in, the "account" will not include this horse as a selection nor will the profits be added to the p and l. At least people can again see that the study and analysis are close to the mark or, as in this case, spot on. Long term that is important.

There are one or two interesting races at Folkestone this evening, not least of all the Class 5 Handicap over 6 furlongs due off at 720pm, but we are not getting involved. We will concentrate on trying to find something from tomorrows cards at Ayr, Kempton, Nottingham and Ripon. Gags will probably be on here later to answer one or two comments and emails we have received and possibly to explain things more clearly than I have in my attempt above!

Nothing This Afternoon........

2009-06-02T12:23:00.003+01:00

It is a pretty average days racing today and as far as this afternoon is concerned there is nothing which we felt justified going on to the account. We got involved with one late last night, with a view to trading, and whilst we believe it is certain to trade shorter than the prices originally available, there were one or two doubts as to its ability to last home and for that reason we cannot put it up as a bet.

For those of you that are interested the horse in question is Fastnet Storm in the 4.00 Ripon. This horse has run some very respectable races so far and whilst it has disappointed on a few occasions there are valid reasons for this (soft ground). The horse is clearly quite well regarded by the trainer (he has sent it to Newmarket a couple of times and the horse has been well backed on more than one occasion) and on a track where the trainer and jockey have a 26% strike rate this must be of interest. When you consider that the sire has a record of 6 wins from 13 tries at the course (46%) and an overall record of 18% at the trip then it becomes even more interesting. We would expect this to bounce out this afternoon and try and make all and whilst there are a couple of potential improvers, notably Hatta Diamond and High Office, it would not be the biggest surprise to see this fend them all off in the home straight.

So why is this not going on to the account you might ask? Simply the price was 6/1 last night with the only bookmaker to price up and whilst there is now one non runner (another we felt was of interest) it is now a general 4/1 chance, 7/2 in places and doesn't really offer much in terms of value.

Hopefully we have read the race correctly again and the selection will trade shorter and generate a decent risk free bet for us but whether it hangs on for the win remains to be seen!

Good luck if you get involved with anything today and if there is anything this evening we will be back on here with the bet and analysis as usual.

7.40 Thirsk

2009-06-01T18:02:00.002+01:00

It is not very often that you will find us betting in handicaps confined to 3 year olds, but when we believe we have value on our side then we have to get involved.

The market is suggesting that the M Bell trained jolly, Secret Society, will be very tough to beat. Of course you have to respect the connections but we think this one is too short on what it has actually achieved. Once you come to that conclusion it’s simply a case of laying the favourite, not our chosen method, or finding one or two against it at decent odds. So what exactly has this one achieved? Four career runs to date, two as a 2 year old including a nothing out of the ordinary 2nd in a Folkestone maiden over 6 furlongs. As a 3 year old we’ve seen the horse twice. He won his maiden at Lingfield on the all weather, a four runner affair, before finishing 4th of 7 in a mile handicap at Newmarket. From what we can make out it is that run upon which people are pinning their hopes of him winning tonight. Whilst the Racing Post comments show that he got tired inside the final furlong they make no mention of the fact that it was a slow run race, therefore stamina was not at a premium. Whilst he could very well win tonight, we do not believe he should be as short as he is at 2/1 in the betting.

The market has Regal Lyric as the next best in at around 5/1. We think this price is more to do with the connections (trainer / jockey combination have a 50% strike rate at this course) than it is to do with form. This horse actually finished behind Richo last time out yet, off the same terms, is half the price. We think others bring better form to the race. It is also our view that this one would need to be decent to win from the draw. Of course that is not impossible but at the prices we are happy to oppose.

Fathey represents the Fahey / Hannigan combination but needs to step up on what it has achieved so far in order to win tonight. One win from 7 career starts, in a 5 furlong maiden at Hamilton as a 2 year old, does not suggest to us that this one is especially well treated. Having said that the horse is trying the trip for the first time so that could bring about some improvement, although we prefer to look elsewhere.

Richo finished in front or Regal Lyric when they met but as previously stated we think either will do well to win tonight, bearing in mind the form they have shown to date and the draws they have to overcome.

Seldom is unexposed, a winner over the distance and on fast ground, but has to contend with the worst of the draw.

Of the remainder we think Red Kyte could run better than the odds of 20/1 suggest, but our selection is

740 Thirsk – BRIERTY - 1 POINT WIN AT 17/2 with Hills (bog), 8/1 with Coral.

Our selection ran five times as a 2 year old, winning twice and running with credit on at least one other occasion. Her running style more than once suggested that she will be able to take advantage of a decent draw (the two non-runners this evening were drawn inside her, effectively meaning she is now drawn in stall three). We know she likes a fast surface as her best performances last year were on good to firm ground. She has also performed well when running over this trip, most notably when 2nd in a decent race at Newmarket despite being switched midway through the race from the far side to the stands’ side. She has had just the one run as a 3 year old, out the back not getting a clear run before staying on well enough on ground which probably didn’t suit her. We think she could improve significantly upon that effort now that she races back under what appear to be favourable conditions.

Whilst we think the selection has a great chance this evening and we feel that she is over-priced, we cannot get carried away. This is a 3 year old handicap, the type of race we won’t play in that often, the type of race that could contain any number of dark horses. Therefore, whilst we have placed a bet we have kept stakes to the minimum. The upside is enough to tempt us and the downside will hardly have any impact at all in the overall scheme of things.

Good luck if you play.

Here Comes The Summer

2009-05-31T20:53:00.004+01:00

A small loss this week is all we have to report for our efforts. Last night our fate was sealed within seconds of the race starting as our selection missed the break. That may sound daft bearing in mind it was a race over in excess of a mile and a half but the horse really needed to be raced prominently, preferably just behind the early pace setters, to be seen to best effect. I know lots of people (especially on a well known racing forum) thought the jockey gave the horse a terrible ride and it didn't look pretty with him continually poking his head up the rail with a ton of horse under him. It was obvious to everyone, apart from possibly the jockey, that there wasn't a gap there. In the end he finished in 4th place without ever having put the horse in to the race. In truth he would certainly have finished no worse than 2nd with a clear run. If things had panned out differently, well who knows? It doesn't really matter, it's all part and parcel of racing, that's possibly why they call it "the glorious uncertainty". So we've reached the end of May. A quiet month in which we clawed back the small losses incurred the previous month. The summaries are detailed below:-

WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -4 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
97 BETS
17 WINNERS (17.52%)
34 PLACED (35.05%)
PROFIT / LOSS +56.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 25.34%

BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING) YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
48 BETS
6 WINNERS (12.50%)
16 PLACED (33.33%)
PROFIT / LOSS +24.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 20.12%

Overall the year to date position is still very healthy and we now move in to what should (hopefully) be the most profitable part of the year. Like many punters I have historically found the next three months to be the most profitable of the year, at least I have when the weather has remained constant. It makes sense as the form stands up more often and there are numerous meetings to choose from. Of course that also means the bookies have to price up lots of races which inevitably means they'll make a few more mistakes. We just need to be in position to take advantage.

Here's to a hot summer!

Busy Saturday Again.....

2009-05-30T15:22:00.001+01:00

There is one bet for us so far today.

8.25 Newbury - 2PT Win Bell Island (available at 6/1 with Corals and Sporting Bet,11/2 with Stan James and VC Bet, 5/1 generally)

There is a tremendous amount of racing today and you have got a bit of everything, however our bet runs in one of the last races of the day. We were drawn to the race as the favourite, Murcar, looks extremely short on what it has achieved on the track so far. Yes it is relatively unexposed and represents a stable who are flying this season (23%) however it is hard to see why it should be a shorter price than one of todays rivals, Mista Rossa, on a piece of form at Kempton in April. The application of blinkers looks significant but the sires progeny have a very poor record wearing blinkers (1-35) and this is definitely off-putting.

Our selection comes from a yard that is in good form at present and Richard Hughes is 2 from 3 for the stable at todays course. The horse has won twice on the AW at this trip and is still fairly treated off a mark of just 2lbs higher and seems to have improved for the application of a visor. The times of the races were good and it will like the good/firm ground conditions and looks as though it should go close. Of the others, you have to give Mista Rossa a shout, the favourite has chances but is far too short, Agente Romano has a chance but we're not sure that the trip will suit, Seedless and Kasban are unexposed but will need to bring massively improved efforts to the table today, Thorny Mandate could run into a place but doesn't look good enough to win and the rest offer little in the way of form or promise to recommend them today.

Overall we make the selection a 3/1 chance and at odds up to twice those available it warrants a decent win bet today. We toyed with going each way but felt that there were sufficient reasons for not getting involved and are happy to go for the outright win.

There is a possibility of further bets and if we have anything they will be sent out later on as usual.

All the best

Nothing Stands Out!

2009-05-29T13:45:00.003+01:00

There is a lot of racing across the UK today and there was plenty of form to get stuck into, however as the title suggests we thought that there were a couple of horses which could run better than their odds, but nothing really strong enough for the account.

In the 4.20 Yarmouth one horse caught our eye and it is available at 20/1 in places but whilst we put up one at these odds last weekend there was a much more compelling case for doing so. Today, Magnitude gets in this race off top weight and if you go back to last year when it was trained by William Haggas, it has a C & D success to its name off a mark 15lbs higher. It has since run respectively over 7F again before it then seemed to lose its way and joined Gary Moore, and subsequently Mark Rimmer, after running over trips of a mile and 10 furlongs. Today it is returned to 7F, a trip that it has won twice over, has a decent jockey in Franny Norton on top and if anywhere near back to its best it could just surprise today.....It's a massive 'if' and we would have preferred to have seen a bit more encouragement in the last few runs but I suppose that is why it is 20/1?

Elsewhere there were one or two others which looked a little short but the shape of the races was not very good and it was an easy decision to leave them alone.

One of us will be back on tomorrow and hopefully we can build on the results of the last two Saturdays!!!!

All the best if you decide to play!

6.05 Sandown

2009-05-28T13:53:00.002+01:00

We have bet in one race today. We believe our selection is the form pick and the available odds were big enough to tempt us. At first glance many might think this is a really competitive race, but we feel there are valid reasons for opposing the short priced favourite and the last time out winner at the front of the market.

Kensington Oval – ran three times last year, winning first time out as a 3 year old in a maiden over course and distance. Obviously the stable think a fair bit of this horse, but on what he has produced on the racecourse to date we have to be against him at such short odds. He was sent off favourite in his second run in a listed event at Ascot, where he finished out with the washing, before returning to the same venue for a Class 2 handicap in which he again fluffed his lines. If this horse is as good as some think then he could easily win this event but we have to deal with what has been seen on the racecourse, therefore we are against this one tonight.

Dr Livingstone – is an interesting runner and we can’t dismiss him, we just think that he might come on for the run and prefer a bit more cut in the ground than he’s likely to get tonight. One of the more likely candidates in our view but we prefer another runner tonight.

Moves Goodenough – looks like he’s weighted right up to his best and beyond after three wins at the end of last season. We think he’d probably prefer a shorter trip as well.

Mafeking – would be more interesting over this trip back at Lingfield on the all weather.

Mountain Pride – was beaten a long way last time out and needs to step forward considerably on that effort before being of interest to us.

Sharpazmax – has done all of his winning, three years ago, at 7 furlongs. Another with improvement required in order to figure tonight.

Baylini – has some good efforts to her name yet she is 0/15 on turf and looks unlikely to improve upon that tonight.

By Command – we don’t think he is good enough.

Pelham Crescent – is one we are keen to oppose. He has won his last three on the spin, but all were at Bath on fast ground and in lesser quality events than this. He now runs off a mark some 14lb higher than for the first of those wins and would definitely need a career best performance to win this.

Alfie Tupper – looks too high in the weights looking at his turf form. He has a win and a place from three runs here, but the win was off a rating of 62 in a Class 5 event on good to firm ground. Now racing off 73 and in a better race on different ground. We’ll pass on him tonight.

That of course leaves us with our selection in the race:-

605 Sandown – WIGGY SMITH 1 point each way at 9/1 with Tote, 8/1 with Boyle, Stan James (both BOG) and elsewhere

The first thing many will say is that our selection is hardly likely to be improving at the age of 10 and we won’t argue with that. However, in our opinion the selection has the best turf form of any of these runners, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance a month ago in a better race than this and this evening is re-united with Dane O’Neill who has ridden the horse for three of its four turf wins. That run and the win last season at Leicester, albeit in a weaker affair, suggest to us that Wiggy Smith retains enough of his ability to be a serious threat in this race. Like the favourite he is drawn high which could give him another advantage. Whereas Kensington Oval has only ever been help up and / or slowly away our selection has previously been ridden closer to the pace when it was an advantage to be ridden that way, most notably over course and distance.

As previously stated, overall we believe there are valid reasons for taking on the favourite and one or two of the others at the front of the market this evening. We feel we are with the form horse at value odds, nothing more and nothing less. This selection is typically the type of bet we like to strike, regardless of the result this evening. We know that in the long term enough of these bets will win and place to make them profitable. Of course we hope that tonight is one such example.

Good luck if you play.

Beverley Or Rome?

2009-05-27T19:14:00.004+01:00

The racing at Beverley or the footie in Rome, either way it looks like compelling viewing.

We like one horse running this evening but we are not going to get the minimum price we require in order to play. That old chestnut "value" is conspicuous by its absence! For us to have a bet a horse must have a real live chance, more likely be our idea of the most likely winner and be available at a price at least 25% greater than the price we think it should be. Whilst I'm talking about value I would make a couple of points. Many people think short priced horses offer no value but quite often they are wrong. If a horse should be odds on and you can back it at 2/1 against then you have value. We don't get involved with too many of these types, the average price of our winners is around 6/1, but sometimes they can offer exceptional value. Which would you rather back, a 5/1 shot in a really competitive 12 runner handicap where very few can really be discounted, or a 5/2 shot in a race where only two or three have any real chance and you think yours is the clear form pick? Anyway, getting back to this evening there's no bet for us so we'll wait and see what tomorrow serves up.

Good luck if you do play tonight.

Maybe Something Later.......

2009-05-27T13:59:00.003+01:00

There is very little to get excited about this afternoon as far as the racing is concerned. Brighton is a racecourse which I have never liked betting at and is such a unique track that it does tend to lend itself to certain horses. With the weather being a little uncertain and doubts as to exactly what the going will be it didn't take us long to swerve the meeting altogether.

There is a hideous looking jumps card at my local track Cartmel and again the ground is going to be considerably softer than stated in the forecast in the papers, following plenty of rain throughout the night and earlier today. This left the AW card at Lingfield but apart from the 5.15 race the rest of the card looked very trappy with a number of small fields and no really decent betting opportunities. The 5.15 was a race we spent some time on but it does appear to be very tough as many of the principles are making their debuts at Lingfield and trying to equate turf and AW form is not that easy. At a very big price Lopinot could run ok but whilst it is proven over C & D and on a winning mark, you wouldn't be surprised to find one or two improving past it today. The jockey booking doesn't really appeal, although she has won on 2 of her last 5 rides, but a race to watch and not one to get heavily involved in (if at all).

We do like one that is running tonight but it is touch and go whether the price is going to be big enough to constitute any value. However, we will keep monitoring the prices (as well as the weather) and update on here by 7pm if there is anything of interest.

Busy Day But Nothing For MIP..........

2009-05-26T14:28:00.004+01:00

As the title suggests it has been a busy day for us with bets in general, however there is nothing from ourselves today. There were a few races which we looked at but we couldn't find anything strong enough to put on the account so we will just leave it there and hope that we hit a few winners from some of our other services.

One of us will be back on here tomorrow if there is anything to pass on and good luck with your punting if you choose to play later on.

We're Getting There!

2009-05-24T11:27:00.006+01:00

First thing to say is that we're not betting today. Racing takes place at Newmarket and the Curragh on the flat and conditions at the two venues could hardly be more different. A day to sit back, relax and enjoy the racing, F1, footie etc and / or to spend with the family.

For those interested we were attracted to the 7 furlong maiden at hq where the jolly looks set to go off at prohibitive odds. With three non-runners the "dead" eight are currently set to run. The interesting one could be Summers Target, whose form from last year arguably makes him the form pick. His third over c and d in a reasonable time has been franked numerous times as has the form of the race he ran in before that. If we knew for sure that he'd trained on, if we knew for sure that he'd learned to settle down and if he's improved for the change in stable then we might have got involved, but with too many unknown factors we prefer to sit out and take a watching brief. The next on the card also caught our eye and whilst we think Daddy's Gift could run a big race we couldn't rule enough of these out to warrant a bet.

Below are the weekly and year to date summaries for those of you who like to keep an eye on these things.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
7 BETS
1 WINNER (14.29%)
1 PLACED (14.29%)
PROFIT / LOSS +11.40 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
95 BETS
17 WINNERS (17.89%)
34 PLACED (35.79%)
PROFIT / LOSS +60.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 27.62%

YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
49 BETS
6 WINNERS (12.24%)
16 PLACED (32.65%)
PROFIT / LOSS +28.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 24.12%

It's pleasing that we've now enjoyed a couple of weeks of moving the p and l in the right direction after enduring a tough spell and a poor run of results. Despite the fact that we back our own selections with our own hard-earned (to somewhere between £100 and £200 per point) we are still learning at this game and we do make mistakes. Just think where we might be able to take things once it all clicks in to place! As the headline suggests, we're getting there!

Good luck if you are betting today.

Saturday Bonanza

2009-05-23T14:35:00.003+01:00

2 bets today so far guys:

1PT WIN - 2.35 Haydock - Festoso (available at 20/1 with Corals & Sporting Bet and 18/1 with Tote & Skybet)

2PT WIN - 3.10 Haydock- Total Gallery (available at 7/1 with Bet365 & Lads, 13/2 in places)

There will be a more in depth analysis on the blog after but we feel that these 2 are worth an interest today. Festoso has got form over longer trips than this and has also ran well in Group races before, she handles soft going and whilst it may be a case that she ultimately needs further, in the conditions today we feel that there is a massive need for stamina and at the kind of prices available she has to be worth a small bet. There are a number of potential improvers in the field but not many are proven on soft ground and most have been winning lower grade races.

Total Gallery looks a cracking bet here but unfortunately Tom Segal has highlighted it in the RP and the fancy prices have now gone. We still feel that it is overpriced at around 7/1 and the drop back to 5f for this strong traveller looks ideal. It has ran on heavy ground before and finished 2nd in a listed race so the ground should be no problem and this horse does appear to be on the upgrade. The favourite has to be respected and you can give Look Busy a chance but at the prices the selection appears to be the value call.

There is a possibility of further bets, and if there is, these will be given out in advance of the race.

There is one additional bet for us today:

2PTS Each-Way - 3.10 Curragh - Jumbajubika (available at 6/1 with Tote, Sporting Bet, Betfred & William Hill)

This race revolves around the favourite Utmost Respect who won a Group 2 race at York last week on ground considered too fast for him. Todays ground is going to be very testing and the race could turn into a war of attrition, and therefore whilst we respect the favourites chances it is giving weight away all round and is a very skinny price. The race doesn't appear to be as competitve as the betting would have you believe and in our opinion the selection brings some very strong pieces of form to the table with several Group 3 and listed wins to his name and a record of 5 wins and 2 places from 9 attempts at the Curragh. It has done most of its winning at trips of 7F and a mile but proved that it has the speed for 6F when winning a listed contest on its latest start. With the underfoot conditions as they are it will be a massive advantage that it stays further and we expect it to get out and try and grind them into submission.

Of the others, we think Snaefell is overpriced and could run well under conditions that suit, whilst the big stables horses all have it to prove in this company and under these conditions. Its hard to see the selection not being placed if it runs anywhere near to form and at the prices is a solid each way alternative to the favourite.

Good Luck

7.20 Haydock

2009-05-22T11:55:00.000+01:00

One bet so far today from us:

2PT WIN - 7.20 Haydock - Captain Scooby (available at 11/2 with Bet365, Corals & VCBet, 5/1 generally)

After watching Haydock yesterday it was quite clear that the ground was riding on the soft side and the times were very slow and therefore there must be a chance that many of the horses running there today will struggle in the conditions.

The 7.20 race caught our eye as there was a very interesting runner here in the shape of Captain Scooby. This horse has shown a liking for soft ground in the past and ran a creditable race over course and distance on heavy ground last season when it spoilt any chance by pulling too hard. Unsurprisingly it faded in the last furlong and was beaten 6 lengths however the winner is now rated 100 and the selection appears to have learnt how to settle much better since then. It then went on to run a now 87 rated animal to 1/2 length over 5f at Thirsk before readily winning a Beverley 5f handicap of a 2lb lower mark than todays. After that it was raised to a mark of 78 and ran a little disappointingly at Warwick beaten 5 lengths, however the winner of that race is now rated 19lbs higher than then and the 3rd has ran a cracker in a decent race at Ascot.

Since then the horse has ran 3 times on good/firm ground and has finished 3rd on its last two starts when not getting particularly good runs and finishing off its race well. As a consequence it has been given a little bit of respite from the handicapper and now back on a surface which we know it acts on and with a professional jockey taking over from its usual claiming jockey we expect a big run from it. The trainer has also got a decent record at the course recently (2 wins, 3 2nds, 4 3rds from 13 runs) and in a race where we feel there are doubts on the ground with many of todays rivals, is therefore worthy of a decent win bet. We do have a slight doubt about whether it will truly get 6f on soft/heavy ground although our gut feeling is that it will, hence the win only approach.

There may be something else later on but we will be let everybody know in due course if there is.

All the best

Glorious Goodwood!!!

2009-05-20T13:16:00.001+01:00

One bet so far today:

1PT Each Way - 4.35 Goodwood - Dome Rocket (available at 9/2 with lads, 4/1 generally)

This is another one of those races where we believe the horse with the best form in the book has been underestimated by the layers. We make this the most likely winner and whilst there are one or two unraced horses in the field, it generally pays to go with proven form.

The selection was arguably a little disappointing first time up this season when sent off a short priced favourite (may have needed the run and can be forgiven) but the drop back to 10F and a return to Goodwood where it ran well on debut should be in its favour. The current favourite is priced up more on connections than previous form and the Stoute runner was well beaten on its only start (very slow time) despite appearing to have the run of the race. There may be a decent horse lurking amongst the unraced types from the Johnston and Brittain yards but we think the selection is the solid one.

There is a good chance that there will be some more action for us later on but we need to monitor one or two things first and will issue a text/email after 4pm if we're getting involved.

All the Best

EDIT

There is one additional bet for us today:

1PT Each Way double - 5.10 Goodwood - Miss Tango Hotel (2/1 available in places, generally 15/8)
4.55 Lingfield - Pha Mai Blue (3/1 generally available)

We make both of these the most likely winners and whilst we feel they are a little bit short to back as win or each way singles in their own right, we believe that there is a bit of value to be had by combining them both in an each way double. Basically if they both place there is no downside, whilst if they both win it's a nice return on the bet.

We think that Miss Tango Hotel has the most solid form in the book and should be favourite ahead of the Stoute horse. The selection chased home a well regarded filly at Chester last time and is well drawn today. The favourite on the other hand has only seen a racecourse once where it finished behind another of todays runners, Aurora Sky (reopposes on the same terms so not quite sure how one is 6/4 and the other 16/1) and is also drawn badly in stall 2. Clearly this is from one of the top yards and must have been showing something at home of late but on what we know, the selection has better claims and in a race where only a few can be seriously fancied it should be in the first three at worst.

Pha Mai Blue was one which we missed last time having been on our shortlist but it won a decent C & D race in a time better than any of todays rivals have ever posted. It only has a 4lb penalty for that success and is still well handicapped on some of its old form and since joining Jim Boyle we can only see it improving again. Many of the rivals are exposed and look on high enough marks however the biggest danger could come from Obezyana now that it has Winston on board instead of being apprentice ridden. If the selection performs up to a similar level as last time it must go close and with luck in running will prove too strong for todays rivals.

A Few To Watch

2009-05-19T15:28:00.005+01:00

A few interesting horses running today but nothing that warrants a bet. In the 350 at Musselburgh we quite like the look of Angaric, but we are a bit concerned about the draw and we don't think there's any real value to be had in what may turn out to be a tough race so we left it alone. The last race on the same card is interesting and our view is that if you like the jolly at 5/2 then you must consider Dimashq at three times the price. By the looks of the betting connections are having a go today as bigger prices were available this morning. Our overall opinion is that whilst we thought about it and discussed the race in some detail we couldn't bring ourselves to back one at significantly lesser odds than were earlier available, especially on a horse beaten as far as this one has been in its last few runs. Over at Nottingham we will be keeping an eye on a couple in the same race. The maiden over the extended mile sees one of Sir Michael Stoute's head the market and another is third best in. The two we think worth watching for future are Royal Defence (D Nicholls) and Choral Service (W Haggas). We cannot back them today on what they have achieved so far but we think both are interesting and possibly worth keeping an eye on.

Good luck if you are betting today.

3.00 Bath

2009-05-18T13:30:00.000+01:00

There is one minimum stakes selection for us today:

1PT WIN - 3.00 Bath - Beautiful Lady (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James, 7/1 generally)

This bet is slightly speculative as we wouldn't normally put something up that was beaten nearly twenty lengths on its previous start, however we believe that it can be excused a little for its run on Friday as it hadn't been on a racecourse for over six months and was staying on quite nicely from the back. That race was an apprentice handicap and they have a habit of producing results where most of the horses are strung out like washing so not really going to read too much into that!!! Today she competes against her own sex and races off a mark two pounds lower than when she won a 12f handicap at Thirsk last year. Whilst she has never won over todays trip, there is every chance that she will appreciate the step up given her pedigree and with Holland booked today we think at 8/1 she has been overlooked by the odds compilers. The fact that the front three in the betting are still all maidens and all unproven over the trip (the breeding suggests one or two may struggle) has persuaded us to have a minimum investment today. One thing we can say about the selection is that she goes on the ground and is likely to get the trip, whereas you cannot say this about many of her rivals! There is no denying that this is a little bit speculative, and she could run like a mule, but lets hope its one of her going days and she comes up with the goods.

We are always trying to find ways of bettering ourselves and we will be continuing to tweak things with the way we stake selections, but we would like to think that the bets will be split into two types:

1 - Really solid each way bets (2-5pts each way) where we would expect a return of some kind about 75-80% of the time. We won't just be looking to play for the sake of it and will only play when we believe we are on the most likely winner in the race and the price is out of line!
2 - More speculative win only bets where we feel there is something at the front of the market which is underpriced and/or suspect over trip/ground, etc.

We may also try and include some 'lay' bets as a separate entity but we both believe that trying to select something in races where there is a weak favourite is the better way to go, at least for the time being anyway!!!

We have endured a difficult time of late and yet there has been little damage done to the overall P & L and I think it is fair to say that we have been getting most of the analysis right, if not the selections!!!!

Overall there are some really exciting months ahead and we are extremely confident that the P & L will start moving in the right direction.

Good luck if you play,

Some Cracking Racing At Ripon

2009-05-17T12:06:00.014+01:00

Once again I am left to update things on here! Last weekend Gags was on a marathon walk for a good cause, this weekend it's a couple of days in Blackpool in aid of a completely different cause!

I've had a really good look at two or three of todays races at Ripon and whilst I like the chances of a couple of horses I don't believe there's enough of an edge, or enough value, to warrant a bet.

Obviously we're pleased with how things have turned out this week. We weren't far off a much bigger payout with one selection just failing by a nose to get up and another (winner at 9/2 in to 3/1) not making our list as we'd missed the prices. Anyone reading our analysis can see we've not been far out even during our recent poor run of results, but this game is ultimately about results so it's nice to get things heading back in the right direction.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
8 BETS
1 WINNER (12.50%)
3 PLACED (37.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +8.25 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
88 BETS
16 WINNERS (18.18%)
33 PLACED (27.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +49.36 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 23.96%

BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING) YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
42 BETS
5 WINNERS (11.90%)
15 PLACED (35.71%)
PROFIT / LOSS +17.55 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 16.56%

As promised last week we have highlighted the actual year to date performance and the "blog" year to date performance for those interested. Whilst we may have secured better prices when placing our own bets, the profits shown on here are calculated to prices which were generally available at the time. As an example, yesterday the winning selection was available all day at 13/2 with a couple of firms yet we have calculated profits on here using a price of 6/1. The same has been true of a number of our past winners, but regardless we will continue to quote prices which are readily available. We will also continue to show all of our selections, win or lose, on the right hand side of the blog. Hopefully we'll soon see a lot more red and green over there and a lot less yellow!

Gags will be on here tomorrow with our views and bets for Monday if we are getting involved, assuming he makes it back from Blackpool in one piece!

Two Races, Three Bets

2009-05-16T12:38:00.005+01:00

It was hugely frustrating to see our selection beaten by the smallest possible margin yesterday, but that's all part of the game and we'll take it in our stride. Throughout a long season enough will go our way so when they go against us we just have to take it on the chin.

Today we have bet in two races. Our first selection takes his chance in a maiden where we believe he is the clear form pick. As with yesterdays selection, this one is up against one or two potential improvers from powerful yards. As with yesterday, we will take form in the bag over potential, especially at the prices.

230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI 2 points each way at 7/2 (generally available inlcuding bog firms)

The selection has already proved that todays distance is not a problem, having run well twice previously at 12 furlongs including when not beaten far by the 3rd place finisher in last night's Glasgow Stakes. Most of todays rivals have yet to prove that this trip is within their range. Our view is that Shemoli is the most likely winner and a really solid each way selection.

The next race we spent time on is the opener on the card at Doncaster, where everything looks right for

600 Doncaster - RED WINE 2 points each way at 6/1 (generally available including bog firms), 13/2 in places

to run a big race. The underfoot conditions will suit the selection far more than many of the other runners in this race and the course and distance present no problems. Whilst there are a number of runners in both races we don't think either look overly competitive, therefore we have struck one final bet

230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI and 600 Doncaster - RED WINE 1 point each way double at 7/2 and 6/1 (both prices generally available inlcuding with bog firms)

Of course we know this game is never easy, recent results have proved that if ever we needed a reminder. As I said yesterday, even during this tough period we have got a hell of a lot right in terms of taking on short priced horses and getting them beat. Let's hope today that our analysis is correct and that so too are the final decisions regarding the horses we've backed.

Good luck if you play today.

Which Do You Prefer?

2009-05-15T18:23:00.005+01:00

We have bet in one race this evening, the 10 furlong Class 5 Maiden due off at 645pm. The front two in the market are unexposed and from powerful yards, but given the choice of backing either of them at 6/4 and 15/8 or backing our selection at around 4/1, well we think it's a no-brainer.

645 Newcastle - STANSTILL 2 points each way at 4/1 with Stan James (BOG)

Recently we have struggled to pick out the winners of races despite identifying something like 20 short priced horses to take on. All of those we've wanted to take on have been beaten and most of the winners appeared on our initial shortlists, we just decided not to back them in the end for one reason or another. My point is that despite a poor run of results the analysis continues to be accurate and we are both confident that we'll soon be back in the winners enclosure. Our bet this evening is, we believe, the clear form pick in a race where not too many can be given a serious chance. At the prices we have to get involved.

Good luck if you play.

7.25 Newmarket

2009-05-14T18:18:00.001+01:00

We have decided to bet in this race because we feel there are reasons for taking on those at the front of the market. If you can take out one or two at the front end then you should obtain value about anything you back and that’s the way we see things.

Dona Alba –

An eye catching run last time out, finishing 3rd at Epsom in a Class 2 Event. Three of today’s rivals behind that day but she arguably got the run of the race and that was on good ground. She seems to run well in decent races without winning. One of today’s rivals is 6lb better off for 5 lengths having got no real run in that race. If you fancy this one at 2/1 then surely you should consider the other at eight times the price! The trainer had just one winner at the course last year from 24 runners and hasn’t had a winner here over 10 furlongs in the last five years from 24 runners. Dona Alba won a 10 furlong event at Leicester on good ground and now races off a 7lb higher mark on good to firm ground. Yes, she has run well in some good races but at the price we have to oppose.

Bandama –

Has run well fresh in the past, but has never won on his first run of the season. The trainer has just one win at the course in May from 23 runners and is 0/12 at the course with six year olds. We think Bandama possibly needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap and may be better suited by a return to 12 furlongs. Interesting that Ryan Moore has ridden this one for two of its three wins. Perhaps we should look out for this one a little way down the road over 12 furlongs with Moore back on board.

Kavachi –

The first of two runners trained by G Moore and this one has Ryan booked to ride. Everything looks set for this one to run a big race, but we’re not convinced. The jockey is 0/5 on Kavachi and at the price we prefer to look elsewhere.

Seeking The Buck –

If you look through his form you can make a case for him upsetting one or two here at a big price. However, he hasn’t been seen for two years and we can’t back horses with his profile.

Kaleo –

Trainer not in great form, 0/13 this year so far and 0/14 at this course overall. Kaleo has run just once on turf in the UK and has a 6lb pull at the weights for finishing behind today’s favourite in the aforementioned race at Epsom. Whilst we feel this one’s price is more realistic than that of the favourite, we still cannot back him until he has shown a lot more.

Mega Watt –

Whilst Mega Watt has not run yet this season but if taking his place we think he’s an interesting runner. On balance we just think he might prove better at slightly less than 10 furlongs in this grade.

That leaves us with two remaining contenders and we have backed them both.

725 Newmarket – GOODWOOD STARLIGHT 1 point win at 25/1 Stan James, 20/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365 (generally available at 16's)

725 Newmarket – SERIOUS CHOICE 2 point win at 8/1 available with Blue Square & 888 Sport (7/1 generally)

The first is the second in this race trained by G Moore. No doubt many will see this as a “no hoper” with Ryan booked for the shorter priced of their runners. However, we’ve looked through the form of GS and we can’t leave him out. The ground and trip are no problem for him, he’s racing off just 2lb above his last winning mark and if his form follows the same pattern this year as it did last, well we think he could go close at a massive price. Last year he had a pipe-opener before hitting form in his second, third and fourth runs, winning two of them and an unlucky loser in another. He could prove to be better handicapped than many his rivals today. Finally for him, if no-one else wants to make the running then he could get a soft lead.

Serious Choice will be over-looked by many because he doesn’t have the sexy profile of some of those at the front of the market. What we know for sure is that he has won on good to firm ground and over 10 furlongs. His win last time out has been franked by the second and fourth winning since. Both won off higher marks than they were racing off when finishing behind SC and one of those victories was up in class at a grade one track. Many will notice that the G Moore / Ryan Moore combination have a 28% strike rate this year, but how many will pick up on the fact that J Boyle and Jack Mitchell have a 35% strike rate over the last four seasons?

Of course we could be proved wrong with all of the above but at the prices we’re happy to take our chance. Good luck if you play.

York And Newmarket

2009-05-14T13:55:00.004+01:00

Looking back briefly at yesterday and our selection at York, of course it was disappointing that we didn't back the winner. However, despite that we got a fair bit right with our shortlist providing the 1st, 3rd and 4th. We think the way we staked our bet was correct as well. Staking as we did ensured the loss was only ever going to be the minimum 1 point and we were happy to take the risk. In future there will be more of a mixture of win, split stake and each way bets than there has been in the past. We believe that will help us to maximise profits, if ever we find another winner!

Some good racing on offer today. The second day of the York meeting throws up the Dante Stakes as the highlight. For us there's no bet this afternoon but every chance that we will be getting involved this evening at Newmarket. We've identified a race in which we believe there are valid reasons for taking on one or two at the front of the market. We just want to be sure that conditions remain ideal before we get involved, so we'll hang fire for now. One of us will be back on here with an update later this evening by approximately 6pm.

3.45 York

2009-05-13T11:19:00.002+01:00

Between us we have spent a lot of time on one race at York today. We do not think this is the most competitive 17 runner race there has ever been and with reasons to oppose some of those at the front of the market we feel compelled to have a bet.

Stand Guard – has shown nothing on turf to suggest he’ll be winning this off his current mark.

Rosbay – can be fancied on some pieces of form but has not won for two years and trainer form extremely off putting.

Spring Jim – this initially made our shortlist but we came to the conclusion that 10 furlongs is more his trip than the mile and a half he tackles today.

Dzesmin – made the shortlist for one of us but in the end dismissed because of the terrible draw.

Serious Impact – has to be on everyone’s shortlist with powerful connections, but if this horse is slowly away from the gates (drawn out wide) as he has been on his two career runs to date, then he’ll need to be a serious animal to come from last to first. If that happens then so be it, but at the prices and on what this has achieved to date we have to take it on.

Kingsdale Orion – good luck Koo, but we dismissed with doubts about the ground and the trainer’s form this year.

Wellington Square – not been seen out this year and doubts about the trip and not enough turf form to suggest a win is likely today.

King Fingal – another one which made it on to the shortlist for one of us but up in trip and class, looks well drawn although that could be a negative if held up and would be a surprise if good enough on first run of the year.

Overrule – made it on to both of our shortlists, but likely to be over-bet and under-priced and as already stated the trainer form this year is poor.

Cyborg – probably needs some juice in the ground.

Tres Froide – not run this year and no form to work with.

Mesbaah – not run this year and doesn’t look good enough to us.

Dazzling Light – still a maiden.

All In The Red – poor effort last time out, not good enough.

Gifted Leader – another maiden.

Smugglers Bay – not good enough and out of the handicap.

As you can see between us we came up with Spring Jim, Dzesmin, Overrule, King Fingal, the jolly and our selection between us on our initial shortlists. With reasons for opposing the first five of these we have decided to back

345 York – BIRKSIDE – 1 point win at 11/1 (with BOG firms), 12/1 elsewhere.

The selection won the race last year and is re-united with the same jockey today. That is significant in our opinion because the jockey usually rides for a trainer who saddles two of today’s other runners. Furthermore, the last really good performance put up by our selection was with today’s jockey on board. Birkside has obviously won over course and distance, he has won in the grade here and elsewhere off similar marks and the ground is fine for him. He needs to prove that he is back to somewhere near his best after a pipe opener last time out and may need a bit of luck in running from stall 12. If back to his best and able to get to a reasonable position at the start then we think he’s a massive price at double figure odds. Of course we don’t know for sure that he is back to his best, that is the reason we’ve just backed him with minimum stakes to win only.

The other races on the day looked competitve or had poor shapes to them and we decided to swerve them.

Good luck

Beverley

2009-05-12T15:23:00.003+01:00

We looked at a couple of races at Beverley today.

In the Class 4 Handicap over the extended mile, due off at 330pm, we came to the view that Handsome Falcon is the solid one and Nevada Desert could go well at a price. The bookies are giving nothing away with the prices on the former and the latter will probably just need the run. There are others which could go well but we felt there were valid reasons for opposing them. The jolly is up in trip and class and one or two others have a bad draw.

In the following race on the card we wanted to oppose the top one, High Office. We think the interesting one here is Mons Calpe but again the bookies are not exactly being generous with the prices on offer.

As a result we have no bet today, just a couple of races to watch with interest (although not a financial one).

Good luck if you play.

5.30 Yarmouth

2009-05-11T12:36:00.000+01:00

There is one bet so far for us today:

5.30 Yarmouth - 2PTS EW - Directors Chair (4/1 with Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Betfred)

The selection looks to be the solid selection in this race and is unexposed on turf after having only four runs to date. This has resulted in form figures of 2211 and whilst it has had several other runs on the AW it is probably fair to say that it is a better horse on turf. It has won over C&D off a 3lb lower mark under the same conditions as today and also won last time out in a reasonable race at Doncaster again off the same mark under similar conditions. A 3lb rise is possibly not going to stop it today given the quality of the opposition.

The favourite comes from the Swinburn yard that has started the season well however he hasn't had a winner at Yarmouth in 32 previous attempts and that has to disuade us a little! General Tufto has improved a great deal on the AW over the winter but is 0-14 on turf, Locum's best from has been on the AW and there are doubts about the course with this one, Dinner Date looks relatively interesting however the trainer is 0-31 at Yarmouth which is off-putting, Dancing Jest may need the run and needs to progress, Agente Romano has been beaten in a claimer and looks to have its own ideas about the game, and Iceman George has a bit to find with the selection and appears to want more cut in the ground to be seen at its best.

All in all it will be extremely disappointing if Directors Chair isn't there or thereabouts and we believe it is worth a decent investment.

There may be a further bet this evening at Windsor and Mick will text anything through if thats the case.

Good luck

Blog Bets (Posted On Here In Advance Of Racing)

2009-05-10T20:53:00.005+01:00

I have been asked to show the results for bets posted on this blog in advance of racing so here goes:-

BLOG BETS
34 BETS
4 WINNERS
12 PLACED
PROFIT / LOSS +9.30 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 11.07%

As we have pointed out previously we've had a poor run of results recently but if this represents our worst case scenario then we'll take it.

Each week when we update the summaries we will include the "blog" bets as requested. Now we just need to get on with finding a few winners so the results, whichever way you view them, look a lot better and more importantly they make us a lot more money. Mind you, even though we think they're poor, they're still a whole lot better than most punters and a lot of expensive tipping services seem to be able to achieve.

Gags will be on here tomorrow if we're betting on Monday.

Time To Work Even Harder

2009-05-10T10:18:00.004+01:00

Punting is all about making long term profits from backing selections at value prices. I think anyone with a history of making the game pay will agree with that. However, as with any results driven business there will be good times when everything rolls your way and there will be tough times when the opposite happens. Anyone who has been reading this blog for a while will know that I don't believe in the theory that luck plays a major part in our success or failure. I'm sure that luck will even itself out over any significant period.

It's clear to see that recently we've got it badly wrong with our selections. The good news is that 99% of the time we've been proved correct in wanting to play in the right races. We have identified horses to take on and they have almost all been beaten. Where we've got things wrong recently is in deciding how to oppose these horses. Too often we've gone for the wrong one of two or three on our shortlist of possible winners. That's not bad luck, that's poor decision making.

When things don't work out the way I'd like I have only one way of turning them around. That is to work even harder to put them right. There won't be any drastic changes to the way we do things. We will continue to try and identify horses at the front end of the market which we feel we can get beat. That part of what we do has to date been hugely successful and anyone laying the horses we've been keen to take on will be making a fortune. We simply need to get back to picking the right one with which to oppose these types. In the past I've used both each way and split stakes betting to make money but during the last few months our approach has concentrated on the former. Perhaps we will mix things up a little more in future, especially in races where we quite like a couple and they're available at value prices. That has to be better than picking the wrong one of the two doesn't it?

We've not made any progress on here in the last few weeks and that has unfortunately been the case with our paid experts as well. At the moment it seems that just as one source produces the business, another will have a nightmare. Still, it's better to tread water than to be losing bundles and I'm sure that it will all click in to place soon enough. As we've seen already this year, when things do go well the profits can grow very quickly. Importantly we are operating from a position of strength with thousands of pounds already won via our betting exploits so far this year.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
80 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (37%)
PROFIT / LOSS +41.11 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.34%

We have been asked to include the return on investment figures in our updates, hence the extra details above. With just over four months of the year gone this figure can change quite quickly and is best ignored, in our opinion, until we have a much larger sample of bets behind us. Anyway, it's there now and will be included each week for those who wish to keep an eye on it.

No flat racing today so a rare day off at the weekend. I'm going to enjoy the footie, the F1 race from Spain and spend a bit of time with the family before this evening getting stuck in to tomorrows cards. Meanwhile I'm sure Gags will be resting with his feet up after his little stroll yesterday!

Nottingham

2009-05-09T12:54:00.003+01:00

No great in depth analysis today as Gags is out on a marathon walk in an attempt to raise money for a good cause and I simply haven't got time myself.

Very quickly then, I take sole responsibility for this selection so if it all goes wrong you know who to blame! I am opposing two at the front of the market, one making its seasonal reappearance and the other I believe will prove better served by a return to the minimum trip. Our selection in what will hopefully not turn out to be the most competitive of events is

330 Nottingham - MAX ONE TWO THREE 2 points each way at 9/2 with Bet 365 and Hills (both BOG) and Corals.

The selection ran last time out in a decent enough five furlong event on rain softened ground at Newbury, staying on nicely at the finish after not enjoying the clearest of passages. Previously she ran an encouraging race on her first appearance of the year in a 6 furlong Listed race at Newmarket. That race was run on decent ground and they produced a quickish time. I think the selection has every chance today and at the prices she represents the value as far as I am concerned.

I'm off to have a look at the evening cards and will update on here later if I find anything worthy of an investment.

Good luck if you play today.

1.35 Lingfield

2009-05-08T12:57:00.002+01:00

There is one bet for us today so far.

1.35 Lingfield - Glencalvie (available at 12/1 with Tote, Stan James, Betfred & Hills, 11/1 Bet365, generally 10/1)

We were keen to get involved in this race as we feel that the favourite is likely to be overbet and underpriced. Whilst it comes from a powerful yard and has top connections, the form it has shown to date is nothing special and on its first attempt at the course and more importantly the surface, we feel that at 2/1 this has to be opposed. The horse we both like is Glencalvie and whilst it is unlikely to be improving at the age of 9, it has dropped to its lowest mark since 2004 and has won over C&D off higher marks of 71 and 72 in the past, with the former being as recently as June last year. The key to this horse seems to be the way that it is ridden and all of its best runs have coincided with when the horse has been ridden prominently and/or made the running and from stall 2 we expect it to get to the front or just behind the pace and hopefully get the run of the race. It's record over C&D from a mark upto 6lb higher than today's is 33171 and there were valid reasons for the unplaced effort as it was held up on that occasion. There are other possible prominent runners such as April Fool, however this is drawn in 12 and will have to be rushed up to get the lead. We don't believe that Glencalvie needs to lead, it just needs to be prominent and with a whole host of hold up horses in the race it could just play into the selections hands. Of the rest Sew 'N' So Character has some decent form if you go back far enough, Phai Mai Blue is quite interesting and Pension Policy has bits and pieces of form to put it in the shake up, although the trainers AW record hardly inspires. Aggravation looks plenty short enough for a horse yet to win off this mark round here and the rest look much of a muchness. I think we can ignore Glencalvie's last few runs which have been at Kempton (a track where it has only finished placed once from 6 starts) and back on todays course with a positive jockey booking (1 from 4 with one placed for trainer over C & D) then at double figure prices this is worth a small stakes bet.

There were a couple of favourites which we were keen to oppose but we couldn't find anything solid enough against them. We have put these up in trading places on the righthand side of the blog and may look to take a few quid out of them later on.

Good Luck!

Another Tricky Day At Chester!

2009-05-07T13:29:00.002+01:00

Todays card at Chester has a similar look to yesterdays in that there are a number of trappy looking handicaps and a few 3 year old races where it is hard to get an accurate handle on how some of these horses have wintered and improved. Not really the kind of races we feel offer suitable betting opportunities and unfortunately we have drawn a blank as far as account bets are concerned.

We spent quite a bit of time on the 3.15 at Chester and we were both of the opinion that from the worst draw and on the back of a fillies maiden win in an average time, Stoutes Cheveley Park owned runner, RESORT, was one to take on at the likely prices. The two that we felt were overpriced and could possibly cause an upset were FOUNDATION ROOM and VIVA RONALDO. These are both available at decent double figure odds and both have pieces of form in the book which make us believe that they could belie their current odds. Too speculative to go on the account but there is a race of interest at Windsor later on this evening and if we find anything strong enough one of us will post up by 6pm.

Good Luck!

All Eyes On Chester

2009-05-06T11:21:00.002+01:00

Today sees the start of the Chester May Meeting, but from a punting point of view we think the opening day is very tough. With pretty poor fare on offer elsewhere it was easy enough to come to the "no bet today" conclusion.

Like many punters we spent a fair bit of time looking through the feature event, the Chester Cup. My record in this race is not great although I did have a decent each way bet on High and Mighty at 66/1 a few years ago. Unfortunately the Hills trained jolly got up late on and I only collected on the place part of the bet. A case of nearly but not quite good enough! Back to todays race and Gags and I have come up with two for you to consider in the race. Gags thinks Ajaan could go well at 14/1 and I reckon Gala Evening at 16/1 could run a decent race. So there you have our lucky pin picks for the big race, good luck if you are getting involved today.

One of us will be back on this evening or tomorrow. No bet today.

Tempted........

2009-05-05T13:57:00.002+01:00

We were keen on one today in a race at Southwell but whilst we feel the horse is overpriced and will go well, we cannot dismiss enough of its rivals to put this up on the account. We have gone over the race numerous times and despite our best efforts we just cannot eliminate enough and therefore will just take a watching brief. There is one race of interest this evening, and we are quite keen on one, however with the ground conditions playing a major role at the course, and given the wet weather across the country, we will be monitoring it closely before making a final decision. One of us will be back on here by 6.30pm if there is anything to report.

Whatever Happened To The Quality Racing?

2009-05-04T14:13:00.004+01:00

Is it me or did we used to have quality racing on Bank Holidays? Todays cards look tough to me and with Gags being busy today it's an easy decision to pass up the opportunity for a full bet. I have had a small, very speculative each way double on a couple at decent prices and that sums it up for me. A day for very small stakes if you are getting involved at all.

One of us will be on here this evening or tomorrow if we are betting on Tuesday. Good luck if you are betting today.

Last Week

2009-05-04T10:58:00.004+01:00

I'm in a bit of a hurry this morning but believe it or not I want to post up the weekly and year to date figures despite last week not being our finest in terms of results. I am determined that our bets and results will continue to be seen in full as planned at the outset. That means the blog will sometimes make for poor reading but we want everyone to see the ups and downs as we continue with our venture. There are too many blogs and websites out there where all you are shown are the winners and we won't turn this place in to another one the same.

The most disappointing thing for me is that two of our bets failed to run their race. One we could forgive as they went no pace but the other was a big let down. I don't mind losing, I know we're going to lose far more often than we win and I don't mind the fact that last week I increased how much I stake per point. A few winners will vindicate that decision and looking through our analysis we're not far away. On Saturday we looked at three races in detail and our analysis came up with two winners. Unfortunately we cleverly decided they weren't strong enough so we didn't back them. Then of course yesterday we spent a lot of time on one race and got so much right, apart from the bet failing to run its race! So it's been a crap weekend financially but we remain confident that our form study and analysis is still pretty much spot on. I've said to others in the past that form study and analysis are only part of the "job". Punters also have to decide when to bet, ie follow up what the analysis has produced, and when to keep their money in their pockets. One or two people have suggested to me that this part of the process is where you get lucky, by deciding to back the horses which win, and unlucky, by deciding to back those which lose and leaving alone the winners. I don't agree about the "luck" issue, for me it's simply a good or a bad decision. Unfortunately I've been guilty of making a few bad decisions lately, it's as simple as that.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
3 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
1 PLACED (33%)
PROFIT / LOSS -5.6 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
78 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +47.11 POINTS

With that done I'm off to see if there is anything worth getting involved with today.

Sunny Salisbury

2009-05-03T13:28:00.005+01:00

We have backed one horse so far today. Our selection runs in the Class 2 Handicap for 3 year olds over six furlongs. We don't often get involved in these types of races but we believe there are good reasons for playing today. Let's hope we're right and we haven't made a complete "horlicks" of things!

Dark Mischief - At the front of the market this looks to be a progressive colt from the H Candy yard, a winner last time out at Newmarket in what looked a decent enough race. Dark Mischief has been put up 9lb for that victory and whilst it was impressive enough we think it will have to improve again to win today. Of course he could easily do just that, but at the prices today we'll oppose him.

Cheviot - Ran well enough to finish second at Ripon on seasonal reappearance when sent off favourite. Up another 3lb and we think others will be finishing stronger today. We are also of the view that there should not be such a massive difference in price between this one and Timeteam. Our take on things is that Cheviot is too short and Timeteam is probably too big.

Global City - Hasn't been seen for 200 days. That last performance when winning at Lingfield over 6 furlongs in a quickish time needs to be improved upon to win today. A possible but racing off a 9lb higher mark and first time up for the season we'd rather be with something else today.

Installment - An interesting runner but we think this one might be better suited by a step up in trip rather than a move in the opposite direction. Another one making his seasonal reappearance.

Of the remainder we think Timeteam is possibly over priced and Ginobili deserves respect particularly in view of the trainers record in the race but our selection is

215 Salisbury - FELDAY 2 points each way at 11/2 with Hills (BOG on line), 5/1 with Sky Bet, Tote, Paddy Power (bog) and Boyle (bog)

Last year our selection was campaigned at 7 and then 8 furlongs. Our view is that the trip was too far and we're obviously hoping the drop back to 6 furlongs today will prove ideal. We know the horse has trained on, he was well backed on his reappearance from 9/1 in to 11/2 before travelling well and quickening nicely only to tire inside the final, seventh furlong in a Class 3 event at Newbury. Racing that day off 84 we think there's more to come at todays distance and if this horse ends up being rated in excess of 90, which we think he will, then some of todays rivals are going to struggle to give him weight today. At the prices available earlier today we were happy enough to get involved.

We'll post later if we're backing anything else.

EDIT POST RACE - Cue the abuse! Our selection has run an absolute stinker, simple as that. If there is a positive to take out of that race after we've done our dough it is that we were right to take on the jolly (unplaced at 6/4) and we were right that Timeteam (finished just in front of Cheviot, 2nd at 20/1) should have been shorter. Clearly we weren't alone in thinking Felday would run a big race, he was backed from 6/1 in to 7/2, but obvioulsy we were wrong. I hope something comes to light to explain the poor performance today. Whilst that wouldn't get us our money back it would at least mean we weren't as horrendously wrong with our analysis as it appears right now.

A Quiet Saturday

2009-05-02T13:22:00.003+01:00

The first thing to say is that there's nothing strong enough for us to put up on the account. Four meetings and there are a number of interesting runners. We quite like the look of one at Goodwood from a form point of view, but the horse has run at the track three times without even being placed and that's enough to put us off. We spent a lot of time on the feature race at Thirsk. We don't think this race is as competitive as the numbers suggest, but even so we couldn't nail our mast to one runner. At Newmarket we concentrated on the opening race on the card but it just looks too competitive and we could argue a case for a number of the runners.

Finally we moved on to the evening race at Doncaster and the interesting race for us is the last on the card. Bearing in mind todays conditions we think one horse in here could be hugely over priced. We are not having a "proper" bet and on recent form no-one can fancy the horse in question, but if the last time out effort was simply a "blowing away the cobwebs" exercise and the trainer has got the horse back to anywhere near his best then the 40/1 with Bluesquare is miles too big. On old form, before an injury at Chester, Admiral would be a good thing in this race. As I've already said, you need to assume a lot if you want to give this one a chance, but this race doesn't look that great and we just thought we'd highlight one at a huge price that one or two of you might want to consider. I'm not one for worrying about the market too much, but with one of the owners of this horse known for liking to land a gamble every now and then I guess the market will be the best guide to this ones chances.

So despite some cracking cards and really good races it's a quiet day for us. No bet from us for the account but good luck if you do play.

Nothing Doing This Evening...

2009-05-01T19:20:00.002+01:00

Apologies for the delay in posting, however there is nothing for us this evening. The horse we were keen on is not available to back at the right price and therefore happy to let it run.

Todays selection has ran a decent race and a small profit on the bet for us. The favourite has won well in the end, however taking these types on in the long term is a profitable strategy. There looks to be a few decent cards tomorrow including the Newmarket Guineas meeting and we will be having a good look to see if there are any suitable opportunities for us.

One of us will be back on here by lunchtime tomorrow if there is anything to report.

First Bet Of The Month

2009-05-01T12:25:00.002+01:00

There is definitely one bet for us at this stage and there are possibilities of further bets later on. The analysis for the race is shown below:

Bourse – Looks to have it to do from out of the handicap. We think Bourse will struggle to turn around form with two of today’s rivals from a race run over a furlong shorter at the track about a month ago.

Casino Night – Makes no appeal racing off 6lb higher than she’s won off. No wins from 5 course runs, in our opinion she would need a lot of rain to fall to give her a chance. Even then we would prefer others.

Celtic Change – Whilst this one has just one win to his name, off a 3lb lower mark, he has run some decent races and we think he’s a live contender today. Many will argue the last time out performance should make him the pick here and we can understand that, even if we don’t agree.

Cigalas – On what we’ve seen this cannot win today.

Golden Penny – Seems to produce its best on the all weather and not hard to oppose today.

Royal Amnesty – An interesting runner with a top jockey taking the ride. The horse has won at the venue but over much further. However, the facts are that this one last won on turf off a mark of 66 and today he has to race off 80. A prolific winner on the all weather but we’ll pass on this one until he shows he can be competitive off this sort of mark back on turf.

Sirvino – No doubt many will be getting stuck in to this one today. After winning last time out at Beverley having been well backed to do so this will be popular despite the rise in the handicap and the relatively short odds on offer. Our view is that of course the horse could win, but we feel he would possibly be better off stepping up in trip rather than down in trip at a sharp track. At the odds this is one of those we feel we have to take on.

Wind Star – The trainer / jockey combination has been pretty successful around here and this one can be given a chance off today’s mark. Our only real concern with this horse is that he has never won first time out before.

That brings us to our selection in this race:-

330 Musselburgh – WIND SHUFFLE 1 point each way at 7/1 with Bet 365 (BOG), Bet Fred and Ladbrokes.

The first point to make is that our selection finished behind one of today’s rivals, Celtic Change, last time out. However, we feel that our selection could come on more for that run and be better suited by the step up in trip today. Celtic Change has the visor fitted today but we’re not convinced that will have a positive effect and last but not least, our selection is more than twice the price of that rival. With the horse, trainer and jockey looking in decent form we felt we had to play at the odds available. There is some rain forecast for the area but our view is that it wouldn’t hinder our selection’s chances.

As has been pointed out by one or two people recently, we could be completely wrong and you may be better off getting a pin out and playing the game that way. Obviously we don’t think so and we remain convinced that what we do will pay dividends in the long term. Of course we would say that wouldn’t we?

We may be having other bets today. If that is the case then I’ll post the details on here a bit later.

Good luck if you play today.

Good, Good, Better And Not So Good

2009-04-30T13:17:00.002+01:00

What with everything else going on (yes we have to work and try and fit in a family life alongside the punting) I've only just realised that we've come to the end of another month. I think the headline accurately sums up the year so far for us. A decent enough first two months where I was still finding my feet, particularly with regards to staking, followed by a cracking March and a disappointing April.

Naturally we would love to achieve something similar to March every month but I don't think that's realistic. We know we're going to have bad spells and that we're going to have losing periods, no matter how selective we are. As many have said before, horses are not machines and any number of factors can contribute towards a horse running a bad race. If we can look back at the end of the year and find April was our worst month then we'd take that with no questions asked.

If you are following us with your own money and having the same bets as us please be realistic. As April has shown, even a selective approach is no guarantee of profits in a short-term period. We believe our approach will help minimise the damage when we have a bad run, but we cannot promise not to have losing spells, no-one can.

Fridays cards look interesting and we'll be doing everything we can to find a winner or two so that we can start the new month off in positive fashion. Despite the small losses experienced in April we're still on target to achieve our goals for the year.

Good luck if you are betting today.

Thursday

2009-04-29T19:52:00.003+01:00

Earlir today we suggested that we were unlikely to be betting on Thursday and that's the way it has turned out. The cards look pretty unappealing on the whole.

We played in one race today but unfortunately there was not the strong pace we were hoping for. In fact I think they went pretty slowly and the race, in terms of form, is best forgotten. With no real pace to the race over this trip our selection was never going to get in to things. I know some will say the drift in the price on our selection said it all but I've won on plenty of money on drifters and seen hundreds of well backed horses get beaten over the years, so the market doesn't really concern me that much.

I noticed in the Racing Post today that they are making great mention of the fact that Pricewise Extra has achieved a 29.8% profit on investment on their selections. That is an impressive figure although it's over a relatively short period of time. It made me check our figures on here and it amused me to see that we have achieved an almost identical figure in terms of profit on investment. As I said before, it's far too early in the year for these figures to really mean anything, but I still find it amusing nonetheless.

Have a good day on Thursday if you are getting involved. Our next action is likely to be on Friday and Gags will be back on here with any news.

Ascot Or Punchestown

2009-04-29T13:00:00.003+01:00

Most punters will be getting stuck in to the cards at Ascot and Punchestown today with some high class racing on offer at both venues. As the season progresses we will look more and more and the decent flat turf meetings, but for today we've stuck with the all weather card at Kempton. We've had a good look through two of the races in particular on offer this evening and come up with a bet in the first race on the card.

Detailed below is our analysis for each of the runners:-

Watchmaker - Has been running well over this sort of distance and is closely match with Formidable Guest but we believe it probably needs to come down the weights a bit before winning again.

Cinematic - Racing today off its highest winning mark and we feel the horse would be better off back somewhere like Lingfield. This one could possibly race prominently and contribute towards ensuring a strongly run race.

Hanbrin Bhoy - Has won here over 7 furlongs and at Lingfield over a mile. Not been seen for over a year so needs to prove well being and that he can cope with the step up in trip.

Formidable Guest - As the trade paper says she is a model of consistency, she seems to give her best every time she runs (not quite enough for us when we backed her though). Closely matched with Watchmaker but we think she is, like Watchmaker, high enough in the weights for now.

Balnagore - Spotlight in the trade paper says "one to keep an eye on" but we do not think this is one to have any money on! Drawn well this is another possible prominent runner but we'll pass on this given the form shown to date and the trainers poor record on the all weather (including at this course).

Zero Cool - Has been running in sellers and claimers without showing sufficient form to suggest he can win this.

Ross Moor - One victory on the all weather, in a maiden over a longer trip, and poor recent form make this one easy enough to pass on.

Lytham - Three victories at this track in recent weeks have seen this one take a hike in the weights. Winning run started off 46, now running off 60. Others preferred.

That leaves us with a shortlist of two, namely Bramalea and Sky Quest.

Bramalea finished in front of Formidable Guest (unfortunately) at Wolverhampton and we think she is entitled to confirm the form. A decent run just over a week ago at Bath with todays jockey on board will see this one at the front end of the market. Whilst we think Bramalea could go well, we don't think there's much value in the price and we are slightly worried about how effectively she'll see out the trip if they go a good clip. That leaves us with our selection:-

650 Kempton - SKY QUEST 1 point each way at 8/1 with Hills (BOG on line) and BlueSQ, generally 7/1 elsewhere.

Our selection has a good record at this venue and with todays jockey on board. We don't think this distance is a negative, but if they go a decent pace that would definitely add to confidence given that the horse has won over a furlong further. The trainer stats for this time of year are hardly a negative, we just have to forgive the horse its last run (where it was eased after meeting trouble in running). At 11 years of age the horse can hardly be described as an unexposed improving type but we think the odds on offer represent value, hence our decision to get involved. We will still need luck in running which is why we have kept stakes to the minimum.

We looked at one other race later on the card at Kempton where there is a strong contender with course and distance form, back in the hands of a proper jockey, up against others with form we found hard to evaluate. We can understand why punters would side with the proven form as that is the approach we prefer, but we couldn't dismiss enough of the other runners to warrant a bet in the race.

Good luck if you are getting involved today and especially if you back our selection. The chances of a bet tomorrow are slim but one of us will post on here tonight with an update.

Plenty Of Opportunities

2009-04-28T18:13:00.004+01:00

During the coming weeks and months there will be plenty of opportunities to bet with value on our side what with day and evening meetings now becoming the rule rather than the exception. Despite having had a good look at a couple of races today we don't feel we have enough of an edge to justify a bet, so we won't be getting involved.

Sometimes it can be hugely frustrating to put in all that effort, form study and analysis only to come to the conclusion that the best thing to do is to not to bet. However, that has to be better and more rewarding than backing one you shouldn't have got involved with, hasn't it?

So with some tricky racing on offer and the weather playing games with the going we're happy enough to sit out and bide our time. As we all know, the bookies have to play in every race, we don't.

There are a number of interesting races on offer tomorrow from Ascot to Pontefract and then Kempton in the evening. Bearing in mind what I've just said about playing a cautious game when the weather is as it has been lately I would think the most likely chance of a bet would be at Kempton, but we shall see.

Keen To Get Involved But..........

2009-04-28T13:29:00.002+01:00

We were very keen to get involved in a race at Lingfield today and whilst we believe that there is mileage in opposing a few at the front of the market, ultimately we couldn't find anything strong enough to put on the account. There were one or two small negatives with our preference and we have decided that they were sufficient to give it a miss. There is one race of interest at Nottingham this evening and if we have anything Mick will be back on here by 18.30hrs.

Nothing Strong Enough

2009-04-27T18:02:00.002+01:00

As Gags said earlier we were considering betting in a couple of races this evening. With the going change at Windsor we're happy to pass on anything running there tonight so that left us with the possibility of a bet at Southwell. We both agreed that the final race on the card was the interesting one and we both had pretty much the same horses on our shortlist. Sounds good so far doesn't it? We also agreed on which one we think is the most likely winner, which one we think is the solid place horse and which one looked overpriced. The final piece of our analysis is always to decide and agree upon a price at which we're happy to back our idea of the most likley winner. Unfortunately this evening our idea of a value price and the odds being offered by the bookies are too far apart so our week starts off quietly with a "no bet today".

As ever, good luck if you are playing. We've got one race of interest to check out for tomorrow so Gags will be back on here in the afternoon if we're betting.

Maybe Something Later!!!

2009-04-27T12:24:00.003+01:00

We looked at a couple of races last night and there is a possibility that we may be getting involved later on. One of the reasons for holding off with any selections at this stage is due to the strong possibility of some ground changes as the country seems to be getting a fair amount of rain today. Clearly we want to assess the underfoot conditions at Windsor before investing our cash and therefore the sensible thing is to wait and see before going any further.

There is a horse which we believe is well overpriced and this will be displayed under the trading places section. There has been a litle bit of money for it in the last hour or so but its still available at 25/1 with Hills and we can see it starting much shorter. The horse in question is Trachonitis in the 18.25 Windsor, and whilst its too speculastive to be an account bet, it does look a fair bit overpriced and we will be looking to trade a few quid out of it later on.

If there is anything from us for this evening it will be posted up by 6pm.

Good luck!

We Do Like To Be Beside The Seaside

2009-04-26T12:45:00.008+01:00

Decent weather today and racing just down the road from me at Brighton, but nothing of any interest from a punting point of view.

We've made a profit this week and that is always welcome, but it really is a case of "what could have been". We've certainly been ahead of the market more often than not, but that in itself is not enough. A number of people have contacted us to say they are particularly pleased with the analysis that we usually put up and that they are impressed with our approach. One or two of these comments have been posted and they are appreciated.

We seem to be reading races pretty well at the moment and hopefully that will continue for a long time to come. We just need to pick out a few more winners from our shortlists and the profit figure will quickly grow and our targets will be achieved.

The summaries are detailed below:-

WEEKLY SUMMARY
5 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
3 PLACED (60%)
PROFIT / LOSS +0.40 POINTS

YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
75 BETS
15 WINNERS (20%)
29 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +52.86 POINTS

So, a small profit on the week and that is always better than a loss, but we've been more satisfied by the fact that all of our selections have run decent races. As we've said before, it's one thing to identify a horse that could run well but another thing totally to back them when they do. The fact that the majority of horses we back run their race and at least finish placed is a clear vindication of our disciplined and selective approach. I'm out on the road again tomorrow but Gags will update on here by early afternoon if we are betting on Monday.

Another Profitable Day

2009-04-25T17:59:00.004+01:00

A profit on the day although we had of course hoped for much more than we've had to eventually accept. I shouldn't be greedy but I can't help it! Strangely the price of 20/1 on Stevie Thunder was held by one bookie until a few minutes before the opening show from the course, despite the fact that shorter prices were being traded on the exchanges. The "arbers" must have had a field day along with the traders as the horse eventually went off at 12/1!

I have spent a fair bit of time on the evening card at Wolverhampton but I can't find anything of interest, let alone value. So that's it for today, we'll be back on here early Sunday afternoon if we're betting tomorrow.

Anyone Fancy A Lay?

2009-04-25T12:06:00.004+01:00

A relatively busy day for us with two selections so far and they could hardly be more different, could they? We see the first as our idea of the most likely winner with questions concerning whether or not the favourite will be suited by the way race will be run and see out the trip effectively enough to win today. Our second selection runs in a far more competitive looking race but it has a decent record of running well fresh and we believe it's over priced.

345 Sandown - VIRTUAL 2 points win at 3/1 (generally available)

450 Sandown - STEVIE THUNDER 1 point each way at 20/1 (Bet365 BOG), 16/1 elsewhere

We have decided to put Virtual up on here at the price which is generally available although we've actually backed it at a slightly longer 100/30. The price of 4/1 with Coral, quoted by Pricewise, was never seen by us and I'm led to believe it was about for a whole seven minutes so well done if you're the lucky one who got that!

Over the last few weeks we have opposed a large number of favourites, particularly on the all weather. Whilst we haven't always backed the winner of these races in almost every case the favourite has been beaten, often at a short price and often finishing out of the places. We have been asked to highlight as many of these "false" favourites as we can in future, even if we are not backing anything else in the race ourselves. We are happy to do so and we will include a "Laying Places" section on the right hand side of the blog for everyone to see. As has always been the case, the only profits shown on here will continue to be those generated by the horses we are backing. If people make money trading and laying some of these other horses that we've highlighted then good for them.

Let's hope we get a couple of decent runs for our money this afternoon. I will be back on here later if we're betting at Wolverhampton this evening. Good luck if you're playing today.

Watching Brief.......

2009-04-24T15:55:00.002+01:00

Today has been one of those days when we’ve simply run out of time. As most people reading this blog will know, we both have full-time jobs and families which compete with racing for our time. Our strategy dictates that we will not bet unless we’ve both independently identified the same horse as the most likely winner and that the chosen beast is available at we believe to be a value price. Today only one of us has had time to complete the analysis, therefore we will not be betting.

As some of you will have already guessed the race we have looked at is the extended mile Class 6 Handicap due off at 445pm. Initially this looked a tricky race, but after more in depth analysis one of us ended up with a “first” shortlist of four and then eventually with two likely candidates. Normally at this stage whichever one of us has completed our analysis would simply wait for the other one to catch up, for want of a better expression. Then, and only then, if we agreed on the final one or two we would discuss our “tissue” prices and agree a plan of attack.

As an example, yesterday we made Street Devil a 4/1 chance, meaning we’d be happy to back the horse at a minimum of 5/1. At that price we’d have bet 1 point each way, but because far greater odds were available in the morning we increased our stakes to take advantage of the extra value we felt we were getting. That doesn’t mean it’s true to say that “the bigger the price, the more value, therefore the bigger the bet”. If we make a horse a 10/1 chance and that is the price available then there is no value at all in backing it as far as we are concerned.

Back to today’s race and since we haven’t both completed the analysis, we haven’t discussed prices and staking, we can hardly turn around now and get stuck in, can we? For a bit of amusement and to see if we’ve dodged a bullet or potentially missed a winner, the two horses on the one shortlist were Lend a Grand and Sarwin. Hopefully we’ve missed a bullet and the race turns out to be the tricky affair we initially thought it was. We’ve heard good words for three others in the race, namely Fine Ruler, Bermacha and Kirstys Lad, so whatever happens someone is going to miss out!

So, no bet for us today but tomorrow looks like it could be fairly busy with three or four races of interest already identified. Good luck if you play today.

Possibly A Bet Later At Wolverhampton

2009-04-24T10:31:00.002+01:00

We may be betting later on today and if we are then details will be posted on here by about 4pm.

In the meantime we thought one or two of you might like to see a statistical breakdown of how we've performed at the different all weather tracks. We have had just two bets at the currently shut down Great Leighs and they were both placed so they will not make a difference either way to the overall figures. Personally I expected Lingfield and Kempton to be our weakest set of results but when we looked at things last night that did not prove to be the case.

Wolverhampton
14 Bets
4 Winners
4 Placed
6 Unplaced
57% of bets at least placed, 28% winners

Kempton
15 Bets
3 Winners
4 Placed
8 Unplaced
47% of bets at least placed, 20% winners

Lingfield
10 Bets
3 Winners
2 Placed
5 Unplaced
50% of bets at least placed, 30% winners

Southwell
14 Bets
4 Winners
5 Placed
5 Unplaced
64% of bets at least placed, 28% winners

Looking at the above shows there is no considerable bias towards or against any of the tracks as far as our results are concerned. Of course this is only a short-term sample covering the last three or four months, but with the average price of winning bets at 13/2 I think we'd all agree that more of the same would be fantastic.

Good luck if you're playing today and we'll be back later with any news by 4pm.