A small loss this week is all we have to report for our efforts. Last night our fate was sealed within seconds of the race starting as our selection missed the break. That may sound daft bearing in mind it was a race over in excess of a mile and a half but the horse really needed to be raced prominently, preferably just behind the early pace setters, to be seen to best effect. I know lots of people (especially on a well known racing forum) thought the jockey gave the horse a terrible ride and it didn't look pretty with him continually poking his head up the rail with a ton of horse under him. It was obvious to everyone, apart from possibly the jockey, that there wasn't a gap there. In the end he finished in 4th place without ever having put the horse in to the race. In truth he would certainly have finished no worse than 2nd with a clear run. If things had panned out differently, well who knows? It doesn't really matter, it's all part and parcel of racing, that's possibly why they call it "the glorious uncertainty". So we've reached the end of May. A quiet month in which we clawed back the small losses incurred the previous month. The summaries are detailed below:-
WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -4 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
97 BETS
17 WINNERS (17.52%)
34 PLACED (35.05%)
PROFIT / LOSS +56.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 25.34%
BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING) YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
48 BETS
6 WINNERS (12.50%)
16 PLACED (33.33%)
PROFIT / LOSS +24.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 20.12%
Overall the year to date position is still very healthy and we now move in to what should (hopefully) be the most profitable part of the year. Like many punters I have historically found the next three months to be the most profitable of the year, at least I have when the weather has remained constant. It makes sense as the form stands up more often and there are numerous meetings to choose from. Of course that also means the bookies have to price up lots of races which inevitably means they'll make a few more mistakes. We just need to be in position to take advantage.
Here's to a hot summer!
Sunday 31 May 2009
Saturday 30 May 2009
Busy Saturday Again.....
There is one bet for us so far today.
8.25 Newbury - 2PT Win Bell Island (available at 6/1 with Corals and Sporting Bet,11/2 with Stan James and VC Bet, 5/1 generally)
There is a tremendous amount of racing today and you have got a bit of everything, however our bet runs in one of the last races of the day. We were drawn to the race as the favourite, Murcar, looks extremely short on what it has achieved on the track so far. Yes it is relatively unexposed and represents a stable who are flying this season (23%) however it is hard to see why it should be a shorter price than one of todays rivals, Mista Rossa, on a piece of form at Kempton in April. The application of blinkers looks significant but the sires progeny have a very poor record wearing blinkers (1-35) and this is definitely off-putting.
Our selection comes from a yard that is in good form at present and Richard Hughes is 2 from 3 for the stable at todays course. The horse has won twice on the AW at this trip and is still fairly treated off a mark of just 2lbs higher and seems to have improved for the application of a visor. The times of the races were good and it will like the good/firm ground conditions and looks as though it should go close. Of the others, you have to give Mista Rossa a shout, the favourite has chances but is far too short, Agente Romano has a chance but we're not sure that the trip will suit, Seedless and Kasban are unexposed but will need to bring massively improved efforts to the table today, Thorny Mandate could run into a place but doesn't look good enough to win and the rest offer little in the way of form or promise to recommend them today.
Overall we make the selection a 3/1 chance and at odds up to twice those available it warrants a decent win bet today. We toyed with going each way but felt that there were sufficient reasons for not getting involved and are happy to go for the outright win.
There is a possibility of further bets and if we have anything they will be sent out later on as usual.
All the best
8.25 Newbury - 2PT Win Bell Island (available at 6/1 with Corals and Sporting Bet,11/2 with Stan James and VC Bet, 5/1 generally)
There is a tremendous amount of racing today and you have got a bit of everything, however our bet runs in one of the last races of the day. We were drawn to the race as the favourite, Murcar, looks extremely short on what it has achieved on the track so far. Yes it is relatively unexposed and represents a stable who are flying this season (23%) however it is hard to see why it should be a shorter price than one of todays rivals, Mista Rossa, on a piece of form at Kempton in April. The application of blinkers looks significant but the sires progeny have a very poor record wearing blinkers (1-35) and this is definitely off-putting.
Our selection comes from a yard that is in good form at present and Richard Hughes is 2 from 3 for the stable at todays course. The horse has won twice on the AW at this trip and is still fairly treated off a mark of just 2lbs higher and seems to have improved for the application of a visor. The times of the races were good and it will like the good/firm ground conditions and looks as though it should go close. Of the others, you have to give Mista Rossa a shout, the favourite has chances but is far too short, Agente Romano has a chance but we're not sure that the trip will suit, Seedless and Kasban are unexposed but will need to bring massively improved efforts to the table today, Thorny Mandate could run into a place but doesn't look good enough to win and the rest offer little in the way of form or promise to recommend them today.
Overall we make the selection a 3/1 chance and at odds up to twice those available it warrants a decent win bet today. We toyed with going each way but felt that there were sufficient reasons for not getting involved and are happy to go for the outright win.
There is a possibility of further bets and if we have anything they will be sent out later on as usual.
All the best
Friday 29 May 2009
Nothing Stands Out!
There is a lot of racing across the UK today and there was plenty of form to get stuck into, however as the title suggests we thought that there were a couple of horses which could run better than their odds, but nothing really strong enough for the account.
In the 4.20 Yarmouth one horse caught our eye and it is available at 20/1 in places but whilst we put up one at these odds last weekend there was a much more compelling case for doing so. Today, Magnitude gets in this race off top weight and if you go back to last year when it was trained by William Haggas, it has a C & D success to its name off a mark 15lbs higher. It has since run respectively over 7F again before it then seemed to lose its way and joined Gary Moore, and subsequently Mark Rimmer, after running over trips of a mile and 10 furlongs. Today it is returned to 7F, a trip that it has won twice over, has a decent jockey in Franny Norton on top and if anywhere near back to its best it could just surprise today.....It's a massive 'if' and we would have preferred to have seen a bit more encouragement in the last few runs but I suppose that is why it is 20/1?
Elsewhere there were one or two others which looked a little short but the shape of the races was not very good and it was an easy decision to leave them alone.
One of us will be back on tomorrow and hopefully we can build on the results of the last two Saturdays!!!!
All the best if you decide to play!
In the 4.20 Yarmouth one horse caught our eye and it is available at 20/1 in places but whilst we put up one at these odds last weekend there was a much more compelling case for doing so. Today, Magnitude gets in this race off top weight and if you go back to last year when it was trained by William Haggas, it has a C & D success to its name off a mark 15lbs higher. It has since run respectively over 7F again before it then seemed to lose its way and joined Gary Moore, and subsequently Mark Rimmer, after running over trips of a mile and 10 furlongs. Today it is returned to 7F, a trip that it has won twice over, has a decent jockey in Franny Norton on top and if anywhere near back to its best it could just surprise today.....It's a massive 'if' and we would have preferred to have seen a bit more encouragement in the last few runs but I suppose that is why it is 20/1?
Elsewhere there were one or two others which looked a little short but the shape of the races was not very good and it was an easy decision to leave them alone.
One of us will be back on tomorrow and hopefully we can build on the results of the last two Saturdays!!!!
All the best if you decide to play!
Thursday 28 May 2009
6.05 Sandown
We have bet in one race today. We believe our selection is the form pick and the available odds were big enough to tempt us. At first glance many might think this is a really competitive race, but we feel there are valid reasons for opposing the short priced favourite and the last time out winner at the front of the market.
Kensington Oval – ran three times last year, winning first time out as a 3 year old in a maiden over course and distance. Obviously the stable think a fair bit of this horse, but on what he has produced on the racecourse to date we have to be against him at such short odds. He was sent off favourite in his second run in a listed event at Ascot, where he finished out with the washing, before returning to the same venue for a Class 2 handicap in which he again fluffed his lines. If this horse is as good as some think then he could easily win this event but we have to deal with what has been seen on the racecourse, therefore we are against this one tonight.
Dr Livingstone – is an interesting runner and we can’t dismiss him, we just think that he might come on for the run and prefer a bit more cut in the ground than he’s likely to get tonight. One of the more likely candidates in our view but we prefer another runner tonight.
Moves Goodenough – looks like he’s weighted right up to his best and beyond after three wins at the end of last season. We think he’d probably prefer a shorter trip as well.
Mafeking – would be more interesting over this trip back at Lingfield on the all weather.
Mountain Pride – was beaten a long way last time out and needs to step forward considerably on that effort before being of interest to us.
Sharpazmax – has done all of his winning, three years ago, at 7 furlongs. Another with improvement required in order to figure tonight.
Baylini – has some good efforts to her name yet she is 0/15 on turf and looks unlikely to improve upon that tonight.
By Command – we don’t think he is good enough.
Pelham Crescent – is one we are keen to oppose. He has won his last three on the spin, but all were at Bath on fast ground and in lesser quality events than this. He now runs off a mark some 14lb higher than for the first of those wins and would definitely need a career best performance to win this.
Alfie Tupper – looks too high in the weights looking at his turf form. He has a win and a place from three runs here, but the win was off a rating of 62 in a Class 5 event on good to firm ground. Now racing off 73 and in a better race on different ground. We’ll pass on him tonight.
That of course leaves us with our selection in the race:-
605 Sandown – WIGGY SMITH 1 point each way at 9/1 with Tote, 8/1 with Boyle, Stan James (both BOG) and elsewhere
The first thing many will say is that our selection is hardly likely to be improving at the age of 10 and we won’t argue with that. However, in our opinion the selection has the best turf form of any of these runners, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance a month ago in a better race than this and this evening is re-united with Dane O’Neill who has ridden the horse for three of its four turf wins. That run and the win last season at Leicester, albeit in a weaker affair, suggest to us that Wiggy Smith retains enough of his ability to be a serious threat in this race. Like the favourite he is drawn high which could give him another advantage. Whereas Kensington Oval has only ever been help up and / or slowly away our selection has previously been ridden closer to the pace when it was an advantage to be ridden that way, most notably over course and distance.
As previously stated, overall we believe there are valid reasons for taking on the favourite and one or two of the others at the front of the market this evening. We feel we are with the form horse at value odds, nothing more and nothing less. This selection is typically the type of bet we like to strike, regardless of the result this evening. We know that in the long term enough of these bets will win and place to make them profitable. Of course we hope that tonight is one such example.
Good luck if you play.
Kensington Oval – ran three times last year, winning first time out as a 3 year old in a maiden over course and distance. Obviously the stable think a fair bit of this horse, but on what he has produced on the racecourse to date we have to be against him at such short odds. He was sent off favourite in his second run in a listed event at Ascot, where he finished out with the washing, before returning to the same venue for a Class 2 handicap in which he again fluffed his lines. If this horse is as good as some think then he could easily win this event but we have to deal with what has been seen on the racecourse, therefore we are against this one tonight.
Dr Livingstone – is an interesting runner and we can’t dismiss him, we just think that he might come on for the run and prefer a bit more cut in the ground than he’s likely to get tonight. One of the more likely candidates in our view but we prefer another runner tonight.
Moves Goodenough – looks like he’s weighted right up to his best and beyond after three wins at the end of last season. We think he’d probably prefer a shorter trip as well.
Mafeking – would be more interesting over this trip back at Lingfield on the all weather.
Mountain Pride – was beaten a long way last time out and needs to step forward considerably on that effort before being of interest to us.
Sharpazmax – has done all of his winning, three years ago, at 7 furlongs. Another with improvement required in order to figure tonight.
Baylini – has some good efforts to her name yet she is 0/15 on turf and looks unlikely to improve upon that tonight.
By Command – we don’t think he is good enough.
Pelham Crescent – is one we are keen to oppose. He has won his last three on the spin, but all were at Bath on fast ground and in lesser quality events than this. He now runs off a mark some 14lb higher than for the first of those wins and would definitely need a career best performance to win this.
Alfie Tupper – looks too high in the weights looking at his turf form. He has a win and a place from three runs here, but the win was off a rating of 62 in a Class 5 event on good to firm ground. Now racing off 73 and in a better race on different ground. We’ll pass on him tonight.
That of course leaves us with our selection in the race:-
605 Sandown – WIGGY SMITH 1 point each way at 9/1 with Tote, 8/1 with Boyle, Stan James (both BOG) and elsewhere
The first thing many will say is that our selection is hardly likely to be improving at the age of 10 and we won’t argue with that. However, in our opinion the selection has the best turf form of any of these runners, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance a month ago in a better race than this and this evening is re-united with Dane O’Neill who has ridden the horse for three of its four turf wins. That run and the win last season at Leicester, albeit in a weaker affair, suggest to us that Wiggy Smith retains enough of his ability to be a serious threat in this race. Like the favourite he is drawn high which could give him another advantage. Whereas Kensington Oval has only ever been help up and / or slowly away our selection has previously been ridden closer to the pace when it was an advantage to be ridden that way, most notably over course and distance.
As previously stated, overall we believe there are valid reasons for taking on the favourite and one or two of the others at the front of the market this evening. We feel we are with the form horse at value odds, nothing more and nothing less. This selection is typically the type of bet we like to strike, regardless of the result this evening. We know that in the long term enough of these bets will win and place to make them profitable. Of course we hope that tonight is one such example.
Good luck if you play.
Wednesday 27 May 2009
Beverley Or Rome?
The racing at Beverley or the footie in Rome, either way it looks like compelling viewing.
We like one horse running this evening but we are not going to get the minimum price we require in order to play. That old chestnut "value" is conspicuous by its absence! For us to have a bet a horse must have a real live chance, more likely be our idea of the most likely winner and be available at a price at least 25% greater than the price we think it should be. Whilst I'm talking about value I would make a couple of points. Many people think short priced horses offer no value but quite often they are wrong. If a horse should be odds on and you can back it at 2/1 against then you have value. We don't get involved with too many of these types, the average price of our winners is around 6/1, but sometimes they can offer exceptional value. Which would you rather back, a 5/1 shot in a really competitive 12 runner handicap where very few can really be discounted, or a 5/2 shot in a race where only two or three have any real chance and you think yours is the clear form pick? Anyway, getting back to this evening there's no bet for us so we'll wait and see what tomorrow serves up.
Good luck if you do play tonight.
We like one horse running this evening but we are not going to get the minimum price we require in order to play. That old chestnut "value" is conspicuous by its absence! For us to have a bet a horse must have a real live chance, more likely be our idea of the most likely winner and be available at a price at least 25% greater than the price we think it should be. Whilst I'm talking about value I would make a couple of points. Many people think short priced horses offer no value but quite often they are wrong. If a horse should be odds on and you can back it at 2/1 against then you have value. We don't get involved with too many of these types, the average price of our winners is around 6/1, but sometimes they can offer exceptional value. Which would you rather back, a 5/1 shot in a really competitive 12 runner handicap where very few can really be discounted, or a 5/2 shot in a race where only two or three have any real chance and you think yours is the clear form pick? Anyway, getting back to this evening there's no bet for us so we'll wait and see what tomorrow serves up.
Good luck if you do play tonight.
Maybe Something Later.......
There is very little to get excited about this afternoon as far as the racing is concerned. Brighton is a racecourse which I have never liked betting at and is such a unique track that it does tend to lend itself to certain horses. With the weather being a little uncertain and doubts as to exactly what the going will be it didn't take us long to swerve the meeting altogether.
There is a hideous looking jumps card at my local track Cartmel and again the ground is going to be considerably softer than stated in the forecast in the papers, following plenty of rain throughout the night and earlier today. This left the AW card at Lingfield but apart from the 5.15 race the rest of the card looked very trappy with a number of small fields and no really decent betting opportunities. The 5.15 was a race we spent some time on but it does appear to be very tough as many of the principles are making their debuts at Lingfield and trying to equate turf and AW form is not that easy. At a very big price Lopinot could run ok but whilst it is proven over C & D and on a winning mark, you wouldn't be surprised to find one or two improving past it today. The jockey booking doesn't really appeal, although she has won on 2 of her last 5 rides, but a race to watch and not one to get heavily involved in (if at all).
We do like one that is running tonight but it is touch and go whether the price is going to be big enough to constitute any value. However, we will keep monitoring the prices (as well as the weather) and update on here by 7pm if there is anything of interest.
There is a hideous looking jumps card at my local track Cartmel and again the ground is going to be considerably softer than stated in the forecast in the papers, following plenty of rain throughout the night and earlier today. This left the AW card at Lingfield but apart from the 5.15 race the rest of the card looked very trappy with a number of small fields and no really decent betting opportunities. The 5.15 was a race we spent some time on but it does appear to be very tough as many of the principles are making their debuts at Lingfield and trying to equate turf and AW form is not that easy. At a very big price Lopinot could run ok but whilst it is proven over C & D and on a winning mark, you wouldn't be surprised to find one or two improving past it today. The jockey booking doesn't really appeal, although she has won on 2 of her last 5 rides, but a race to watch and not one to get heavily involved in (if at all).
We do like one that is running tonight but it is touch and go whether the price is going to be big enough to constitute any value. However, we will keep monitoring the prices (as well as the weather) and update on here by 7pm if there is anything of interest.
Tuesday 26 May 2009
Busy Day But Nothing For MIP..........
As the title suggests it has been a busy day for us with bets in general, however there is nothing from ourselves today. There were a few races which we looked at but we couldn't find anything strong enough to put on the account so we will just leave it there and hope that we hit a few winners from some of our other services.
One of us will be back on here tomorrow if there is anything to pass on and good luck with your punting if you choose to play later on.
One of us will be back on here tomorrow if there is anything to pass on and good luck with your punting if you choose to play later on.
Sunday 24 May 2009
We're Getting There!
First thing to say is that we're not betting today. Racing takes place at Newmarket and the Curragh on the flat and conditions at the two venues could hardly be more different. A day to sit back, relax and enjoy the racing, F1, footie etc and / or to spend with the family.
For those interested we were attracted to the 7 furlong maiden at hq where the jolly looks set to go off at prohibitive odds. With three non-runners the "dead" eight are currently set to run. The interesting one could be Summers Target, whose form from last year arguably makes him the form pick. His third over c and d in a reasonable time has been franked numerous times as has the form of the race he ran in before that. If we knew for sure that he'd trained on, if we knew for sure that he'd learned to settle down and if he's improved for the change in stable then we might have got involved, but with too many unknown factors we prefer to sit out and take a watching brief. The next on the card also caught our eye and whilst we think Daddy's Gift could run a big race we couldn't rule enough of these out to warrant a bet.
Below are the weekly and year to date summaries for those of you who like to keep an eye on these things.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
7 BETS
1 WINNER (14.29%)
1 PLACED (14.29%)
PROFIT / LOSS +11.40 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
95 BETS
17 WINNERS (17.89%)
34 PLACED (35.79%)
PROFIT / LOSS +60.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 27.62%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
49 BETS
6 WINNERS (12.24%)
16 PLACED (32.65%)
PROFIT / LOSS +28.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 24.12%
It's pleasing that we've now enjoyed a couple of weeks of moving the p and l in the right direction after enduring a tough spell and a poor run of results. Despite the fact that we back our own selections with our own hard-earned (to somewhere between £100 and £200 per point) we are still learning at this game and we do make mistakes. Just think where we might be able to take things once it all clicks in to place! As the headline suggests, we're getting there!
Good luck if you are betting today.
For those interested we were attracted to the 7 furlong maiden at hq where the jolly looks set to go off at prohibitive odds. With three non-runners the "dead" eight are currently set to run. The interesting one could be Summers Target, whose form from last year arguably makes him the form pick. His third over c and d in a reasonable time has been franked numerous times as has the form of the race he ran in before that. If we knew for sure that he'd trained on, if we knew for sure that he'd learned to settle down and if he's improved for the change in stable then we might have got involved, but with too many unknown factors we prefer to sit out and take a watching brief. The next on the card also caught our eye and whilst we think Daddy's Gift could run a big race we couldn't rule enough of these out to warrant a bet.
Below are the weekly and year to date summaries for those of you who like to keep an eye on these things.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
7 BETS
1 WINNER (14.29%)
1 PLACED (14.29%)
PROFIT / LOSS +11.40 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
95 BETS
17 WINNERS (17.89%)
34 PLACED (35.79%)
PROFIT / LOSS +60.76 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 27.62%
YEAR TO DATE BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING)
49 BETS
6 WINNERS (12.24%)
16 PLACED (32.65%)
PROFIT / LOSS +28.95 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 24.12%
It's pleasing that we've now enjoyed a couple of weeks of moving the p and l in the right direction after enduring a tough spell and a poor run of results. Despite the fact that we back our own selections with our own hard-earned (to somewhere between £100 and £200 per point) we are still learning at this game and we do make mistakes. Just think where we might be able to take things once it all clicks in to place! As the headline suggests, we're getting there!
Good luck if you are betting today.
Saturday 23 May 2009
Saturday Bonanza
2 bets today so far guys:
1PT WIN - 2.35 Haydock - Festoso (available at 20/1 with Corals & Sporting Bet and 18/1 with Tote & Skybet)
2PT WIN - 3.10 Haydock- Total Gallery (available at 7/1 with Bet365 & Lads, 13/2 in places)
There will be a more in depth analysis on the blog after but we feel that these 2 are worth an interest today. Festoso has got form over longer trips than this and has also ran well in Group races before, she handles soft going and whilst it may be a case that she ultimately needs further, in the conditions today we feel that there is a massive need for stamina and at the kind of prices available she has to be worth a small bet. There are a number of potential improvers in the field but not many are proven on soft ground and most have been winning lower grade races.
Total Gallery looks a cracking bet here but unfortunately Tom Segal has highlighted it in the RP and the fancy prices have now gone. We still feel that it is overpriced at around 7/1 and the drop back to 5f for this strong traveller looks ideal. It has ran on heavy ground before and finished 2nd in a listed race so the ground should be no problem and this horse does appear to be on the upgrade. The favourite has to be respected and you can give Look Busy a chance but at the prices the selection appears to be the value call.
There is a possibility of further bets, and if there is, these will be given out in advance of the race.
There is one additional bet for us today:
2PTS Each-Way - 3.10 Curragh - Jumbajubika (available at 6/1 with Tote, Sporting Bet, Betfred & William Hill)
This race revolves around the favourite Utmost Respect who won a Group 2 race at York last week on ground considered too fast for him. Todays ground is going to be very testing and the race could turn into a war of attrition, and therefore whilst we respect the favourites chances it is giving weight away all round and is a very skinny price. The race doesn't appear to be as competitve as the betting would have you believe and in our opinion the selection brings some very strong pieces of form to the table with several Group 3 and listed wins to his name and a record of 5 wins and 2 places from 9 attempts at the Curragh. It has done most of its winning at trips of 7F and a mile but proved that it has the speed for 6F when winning a listed contest on its latest start. With the underfoot conditions as they are it will be a massive advantage that it stays further and we expect it to get out and try and grind them into submission.
Of the others, we think Snaefell is overpriced and could run well under conditions that suit, whilst the big stables horses all have it to prove in this company and under these conditions. Its hard to see the selection not being placed if it runs anywhere near to form and at the prices is a solid each way alternative to the favourite.
Good Luck
1PT WIN - 2.35 Haydock - Festoso (available at 20/1 with Corals & Sporting Bet and 18/1 with Tote & Skybet)
2PT WIN - 3.10 Haydock- Total Gallery (available at 7/1 with Bet365 & Lads, 13/2 in places)
There will be a more in depth analysis on the blog after but we feel that these 2 are worth an interest today. Festoso has got form over longer trips than this and has also ran well in Group races before, she handles soft going and whilst it may be a case that she ultimately needs further, in the conditions today we feel that there is a massive need for stamina and at the kind of prices available she has to be worth a small bet. There are a number of potential improvers in the field but not many are proven on soft ground and most have been winning lower grade races.
Total Gallery looks a cracking bet here but unfortunately Tom Segal has highlighted it in the RP and the fancy prices have now gone. We still feel that it is overpriced at around 7/1 and the drop back to 5f for this strong traveller looks ideal. It has ran on heavy ground before and finished 2nd in a listed race so the ground should be no problem and this horse does appear to be on the upgrade. The favourite has to be respected and you can give Look Busy a chance but at the prices the selection appears to be the value call.
There is a possibility of further bets, and if there is, these will be given out in advance of the race.
There is one additional bet for us today:
2PTS Each-Way - 3.10 Curragh - Jumbajubika (available at 6/1 with Tote, Sporting Bet, Betfred & William Hill)
This race revolves around the favourite Utmost Respect who won a Group 2 race at York last week on ground considered too fast for him. Todays ground is going to be very testing and the race could turn into a war of attrition, and therefore whilst we respect the favourites chances it is giving weight away all round and is a very skinny price. The race doesn't appear to be as competitve as the betting would have you believe and in our opinion the selection brings some very strong pieces of form to the table with several Group 3 and listed wins to his name and a record of 5 wins and 2 places from 9 attempts at the Curragh. It has done most of its winning at trips of 7F and a mile but proved that it has the speed for 6F when winning a listed contest on its latest start. With the underfoot conditions as they are it will be a massive advantage that it stays further and we expect it to get out and try and grind them into submission.
Of the others, we think Snaefell is overpriced and could run well under conditions that suit, whilst the big stables horses all have it to prove in this company and under these conditions. Its hard to see the selection not being placed if it runs anywhere near to form and at the prices is a solid each way alternative to the favourite.
Good Luck
Friday 22 May 2009
7.20 Haydock
One bet so far today from us:
2PT WIN - 7.20 Haydock - Captain Scooby (available at 11/2 with Bet365, Corals & VCBet, 5/1 generally)
After watching Haydock yesterday it was quite clear that the ground was riding on the soft side and the times were very slow and therefore there must be a chance that many of the horses running there today will struggle in the conditions.
The 7.20 race caught our eye as there was a very interesting runner here in the shape of Captain Scooby. This horse has shown a liking for soft ground in the past and ran a creditable race over course and distance on heavy ground last season when it spoilt any chance by pulling too hard. Unsurprisingly it faded in the last furlong and was beaten 6 lengths however the winner is now rated 100 and the selection appears to have learnt how to settle much better since then. It then went on to run a now 87 rated animal to 1/2 length over 5f at Thirsk before readily winning a Beverley 5f handicap of a 2lb lower mark than todays. After that it was raised to a mark of 78 and ran a little disappointingly at Warwick beaten 5 lengths, however the winner of that race is now rated 19lbs higher than then and the 3rd has ran a cracker in a decent race at Ascot.
Since then the horse has ran 3 times on good/firm ground and has finished 3rd on its last two starts when not getting particularly good runs and finishing off its race well. As a consequence it has been given a little bit of respite from the handicapper and now back on a surface which we know it acts on and with a professional jockey taking over from its usual claiming jockey we expect a big run from it. The trainer has also got a decent record at the course recently (2 wins, 3 2nds, 4 3rds from 13 runs) and in a race where we feel there are doubts on the ground with many of todays rivals, is therefore worthy of a decent win bet. We do have a slight doubt about whether it will truly get 6f on soft/heavy ground although our gut feeling is that it will, hence the win only approach.
There may be something else later on but we will be let everybody know in due course if there is.
All the best
2PT WIN - 7.20 Haydock - Captain Scooby (available at 11/2 with Bet365, Corals & VCBet, 5/1 generally)
After watching Haydock yesterday it was quite clear that the ground was riding on the soft side and the times were very slow and therefore there must be a chance that many of the horses running there today will struggle in the conditions.
The 7.20 race caught our eye as there was a very interesting runner here in the shape of Captain Scooby. This horse has shown a liking for soft ground in the past and ran a creditable race over course and distance on heavy ground last season when it spoilt any chance by pulling too hard. Unsurprisingly it faded in the last furlong and was beaten 6 lengths however the winner is now rated 100 and the selection appears to have learnt how to settle much better since then. It then went on to run a now 87 rated animal to 1/2 length over 5f at Thirsk before readily winning a Beverley 5f handicap of a 2lb lower mark than todays. After that it was raised to a mark of 78 and ran a little disappointingly at Warwick beaten 5 lengths, however the winner of that race is now rated 19lbs higher than then and the 3rd has ran a cracker in a decent race at Ascot.
Since then the horse has ran 3 times on good/firm ground and has finished 3rd on its last two starts when not getting particularly good runs and finishing off its race well. As a consequence it has been given a little bit of respite from the handicapper and now back on a surface which we know it acts on and with a professional jockey taking over from its usual claiming jockey we expect a big run from it. The trainer has also got a decent record at the course recently (2 wins, 3 2nds, 4 3rds from 13 runs) and in a race where we feel there are doubts on the ground with many of todays rivals, is therefore worthy of a decent win bet. We do have a slight doubt about whether it will truly get 6f on soft/heavy ground although our gut feeling is that it will, hence the win only approach.
There may be something else later on but we will be let everybody know in due course if there is.
All the best
Wednesday 20 May 2009
Glorious Goodwood!!!
One bet so far today:
1PT Each Way - 4.35 Goodwood - Dome Rocket (available at 9/2 with lads, 4/1 generally)
This is another one of those races where we believe the horse with the best form in the book has been underestimated by the layers. We make this the most likely winner and whilst there are one or two unraced horses in the field, it generally pays to go with proven form.
The selection was arguably a little disappointing first time up this season when sent off a short priced favourite (may have needed the run and can be forgiven) but the drop back to 10F and a return to Goodwood where it ran well on debut should be in its favour. The current favourite is priced up more on connections than previous form and the Stoute runner was well beaten on its only start (very slow time) despite appearing to have the run of the race. There may be a decent horse lurking amongst the unraced types from the Johnston and Brittain yards but we think the selection is the solid one.
There is a good chance that there will be some more action for us later on but we need to monitor one or two things first and will issue a text/email after 4pm if we're getting involved.
All the Best
EDIT
There is one additional bet for us today:
1PT Each Way double - 5.10 Goodwood - Miss Tango Hotel (2/1 available in places, generally 15/8)
4.55 Lingfield - Pha Mai Blue (3/1 generally available)
We make both of these the most likely winners and whilst we feel they are a little bit short to back as win or each way singles in their own right, we believe that there is a bit of value to be had by combining them both in an each way double. Basically if they both place there is no downside, whilst if they both win it's a nice return on the bet.
We think that Miss Tango Hotel has the most solid form in the book and should be favourite ahead of the Stoute horse. The selection chased home a well regarded filly at Chester last time and is well drawn today. The favourite on the other hand has only seen a racecourse once where it finished behind another of todays runners, Aurora Sky (reopposes on the same terms so not quite sure how one is 6/4 and the other 16/1) and is also drawn badly in stall 2. Clearly this is from one of the top yards and must have been showing something at home of late but on what we know, the selection has better claims and in a race where only a few can be seriously fancied it should be in the first three at worst.
Pha Mai Blue was one which we missed last time having been on our shortlist but it won a decent C & D race in a time better than any of todays rivals have ever posted. It only has a 4lb penalty for that success and is still well handicapped on some of its old form and since joining Jim Boyle we can only see it improving again. Many of the rivals are exposed and look on high enough marks however the biggest danger could come from Obezyana now that it has Winston on board instead of being apprentice ridden. If the selection performs up to a similar level as last time it must go close and with luck in running will prove too strong for todays rivals.
1PT Each Way - 4.35 Goodwood - Dome Rocket (available at 9/2 with lads, 4/1 generally)
This is another one of those races where we believe the horse with the best form in the book has been underestimated by the layers. We make this the most likely winner and whilst there are one or two unraced horses in the field, it generally pays to go with proven form.
The selection was arguably a little disappointing first time up this season when sent off a short priced favourite (may have needed the run and can be forgiven) but the drop back to 10F and a return to Goodwood where it ran well on debut should be in its favour. The current favourite is priced up more on connections than previous form and the Stoute runner was well beaten on its only start (very slow time) despite appearing to have the run of the race. There may be a decent horse lurking amongst the unraced types from the Johnston and Brittain yards but we think the selection is the solid one.
There is a good chance that there will be some more action for us later on but we need to monitor one or two things first and will issue a text/email after 4pm if we're getting involved.
All the Best
EDIT
There is one additional bet for us today:
1PT Each Way double - 5.10 Goodwood - Miss Tango Hotel (2/1 available in places, generally 15/8)
4.55 Lingfield - Pha Mai Blue (3/1 generally available)
We make both of these the most likely winners and whilst we feel they are a little bit short to back as win or each way singles in their own right, we believe that there is a bit of value to be had by combining them both in an each way double. Basically if they both place there is no downside, whilst if they both win it's a nice return on the bet.
We think that Miss Tango Hotel has the most solid form in the book and should be favourite ahead of the Stoute horse. The selection chased home a well regarded filly at Chester last time and is well drawn today. The favourite on the other hand has only seen a racecourse once where it finished behind another of todays runners, Aurora Sky (reopposes on the same terms so not quite sure how one is 6/4 and the other 16/1) and is also drawn badly in stall 2. Clearly this is from one of the top yards and must have been showing something at home of late but on what we know, the selection has better claims and in a race where only a few can be seriously fancied it should be in the first three at worst.
Pha Mai Blue was one which we missed last time having been on our shortlist but it won a decent C & D race in a time better than any of todays rivals have ever posted. It only has a 4lb penalty for that success and is still well handicapped on some of its old form and since joining Jim Boyle we can only see it improving again. Many of the rivals are exposed and look on high enough marks however the biggest danger could come from Obezyana now that it has Winston on board instead of being apprentice ridden. If the selection performs up to a similar level as last time it must go close and with luck in running will prove too strong for todays rivals.
Tuesday 19 May 2009
A Few To Watch
A few interesting horses running today but nothing that warrants a bet. In the 350 at Musselburgh we quite like the look of Angaric, but we are a bit concerned about the draw and we don't think there's any real value to be had in what may turn out to be a tough race so we left it alone. The last race on the same card is interesting and our view is that if you like the jolly at 5/2 then you must consider Dimashq at three times the price. By the looks of the betting connections are having a go today as bigger prices were available this morning. Our overall opinion is that whilst we thought about it and discussed the race in some detail we couldn't bring ourselves to back one at significantly lesser odds than were earlier available, especially on a horse beaten as far as this one has been in its last few runs. Over at Nottingham we will be keeping an eye on a couple in the same race. The maiden over the extended mile sees one of Sir Michael Stoute's head the market and another is third best in. The two we think worth watching for future are Royal Defence (D Nicholls) and Choral Service (W Haggas). We cannot back them today on what they have achieved so far but we think both are interesting and possibly worth keeping an eye on.
Good luck if you are betting today.
Good luck if you are betting today.
Monday 18 May 2009
3.00 Bath
There is one minimum stakes selection for us today:
1PT WIN - 3.00 Bath - Beautiful Lady (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James, 7/1 generally)
This bet is slightly speculative as we wouldn't normally put something up that was beaten nearly twenty lengths on its previous start, however we believe that it can be excused a little for its run on Friday as it hadn't been on a racecourse for over six months and was staying on quite nicely from the back. That race was an apprentice handicap and they have a habit of producing results where most of the horses are strung out like washing so not really going to read too much into that!!! Today she competes against her own sex and races off a mark two pounds lower than when she won a 12f handicap at Thirsk last year. Whilst she has never won over todays trip, there is every chance that she will appreciate the step up given her pedigree and with Holland booked today we think at 8/1 she has been overlooked by the odds compilers. The fact that the front three in the betting are still all maidens and all unproven over the trip (the breeding suggests one or two may struggle) has persuaded us to have a minimum investment today. One thing we can say about the selection is that she goes on the ground and is likely to get the trip, whereas you cannot say this about many of her rivals! There is no denying that this is a little bit speculative, and she could run like a mule, but lets hope its one of her going days and she comes up with the goods.
We are always trying to find ways of bettering ourselves and we will be continuing to tweak things with the way we stake selections, but we would like to think that the bets will be split into two types:
1 - Really solid each way bets (2-5pts each way) where we would expect a return of some kind about 75-80% of the time. We won't just be looking to play for the sake of it and will only play when we believe we are on the most likely winner in the race and the price is out of line!
2 - More speculative win only bets where we feel there is something at the front of the market which is underpriced and/or suspect over trip/ground, etc.
We may also try and include some 'lay' bets as a separate entity but we both believe that trying to select something in races where there is a weak favourite is the better way to go, at least for the time being anyway!!!
We have endured a difficult time of late and yet there has been little damage done to the overall P & L and I think it is fair to say that we have been getting most of the analysis right, if not the selections!!!!
Overall there are some really exciting months ahead and we are extremely confident that the P & L will start moving in the right direction.
Good luck if you play,
1PT WIN - 3.00 Bath - Beautiful Lady (available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James, 7/1 generally)
This bet is slightly speculative as we wouldn't normally put something up that was beaten nearly twenty lengths on its previous start, however we believe that it can be excused a little for its run on Friday as it hadn't been on a racecourse for over six months and was staying on quite nicely from the back. That race was an apprentice handicap and they have a habit of producing results where most of the horses are strung out like washing so not really going to read too much into that!!! Today she competes against her own sex and races off a mark two pounds lower than when she won a 12f handicap at Thirsk last year. Whilst she has never won over todays trip, there is every chance that she will appreciate the step up given her pedigree and with Holland booked today we think at 8/1 she has been overlooked by the odds compilers. The fact that the front three in the betting are still all maidens and all unproven over the trip (the breeding suggests one or two may struggle) has persuaded us to have a minimum investment today. One thing we can say about the selection is that she goes on the ground and is likely to get the trip, whereas you cannot say this about many of her rivals! There is no denying that this is a little bit speculative, and she could run like a mule, but lets hope its one of her going days and she comes up with the goods.
We are always trying to find ways of bettering ourselves and we will be continuing to tweak things with the way we stake selections, but we would like to think that the bets will be split into two types:
1 - Really solid each way bets (2-5pts each way) where we would expect a return of some kind about 75-80% of the time. We won't just be looking to play for the sake of it and will only play when we believe we are on the most likely winner in the race and the price is out of line!
2 - More speculative win only bets where we feel there is something at the front of the market which is underpriced and/or suspect over trip/ground, etc.
We may also try and include some 'lay' bets as a separate entity but we both believe that trying to select something in races where there is a weak favourite is the better way to go, at least for the time being anyway!!!
We have endured a difficult time of late and yet there has been little damage done to the overall P & L and I think it is fair to say that we have been getting most of the analysis right, if not the selections!!!!
Overall there are some really exciting months ahead and we are extremely confident that the P & L will start moving in the right direction.
Good luck if you play,
Sunday 17 May 2009
Some Cracking Racing At Ripon
Once again I am left to update things on here! Last weekend Gags was on a marathon walk for a good cause, this weekend it's a couple of days in Blackpool in aid of a completely different cause!
I've had a really good look at two or three of todays races at Ripon and whilst I like the chances of a couple of horses I don't believe there's enough of an edge, or enough value, to warrant a bet.
Obviously we're pleased with how things have turned out this week. We weren't far off a much bigger payout with one selection just failing by a nose to get up and another (winner at 9/2 in to 3/1) not making our list as we'd missed the prices. Anyone reading our analysis can see we've not been far out even during our recent poor run of results, but this game is ultimately about results so it's nice to get things heading back in the right direction.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
8 BETS
1 WINNER (12.50%)
3 PLACED (37.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +8.25 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
88 BETS
16 WINNERS (18.18%)
33 PLACED (27.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +49.36 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 23.96%
BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING) YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
42 BETS
5 WINNERS (11.90%)
15 PLACED (35.71%)
PROFIT / LOSS +17.55 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 16.56%
As promised last week we have highlighted the actual year to date performance and the "blog" year to date performance for those interested. Whilst we may have secured better prices when placing our own bets, the profits shown on here are calculated to prices which were generally available at the time. As an example, yesterday the winning selection was available all day at 13/2 with a couple of firms yet we have calculated profits on here using a price of 6/1. The same has been true of a number of our past winners, but regardless we will continue to quote prices which are readily available. We will also continue to show all of our selections, win or lose, on the right hand side of the blog. Hopefully we'll soon see a lot more red and green over there and a lot less yellow!
Gags will be on here tomorrow with our views and bets for Monday if we are getting involved, assuming he makes it back from Blackpool in one piece!
I've had a really good look at two or three of todays races at Ripon and whilst I like the chances of a couple of horses I don't believe there's enough of an edge, or enough value, to warrant a bet.
Obviously we're pleased with how things have turned out this week. We weren't far off a much bigger payout with one selection just failing by a nose to get up and another (winner at 9/2 in to 3/1) not making our list as we'd missed the prices. Anyone reading our analysis can see we've not been far out even during our recent poor run of results, but this game is ultimately about results so it's nice to get things heading back in the right direction.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
8 BETS
1 WINNER (12.50%)
3 PLACED (37.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +8.25 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
88 BETS
16 WINNERS (18.18%)
33 PLACED (27.50%)
PROFIT / LOSS +49.36 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 23.96%
BLOG BETS (POSTED ON HERE IN ADVANCE OF RACING) YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
42 BETS
5 WINNERS (11.90%)
15 PLACED (35.71%)
PROFIT / LOSS +17.55 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 16.56%
As promised last week we have highlighted the actual year to date performance and the "blog" year to date performance for those interested. Whilst we may have secured better prices when placing our own bets, the profits shown on here are calculated to prices which were generally available at the time. As an example, yesterday the winning selection was available all day at 13/2 with a couple of firms yet we have calculated profits on here using a price of 6/1. The same has been true of a number of our past winners, but regardless we will continue to quote prices which are readily available. We will also continue to show all of our selections, win or lose, on the right hand side of the blog. Hopefully we'll soon see a lot more red and green over there and a lot less yellow!
Gags will be on here tomorrow with our views and bets for Monday if we are getting involved, assuming he makes it back from Blackpool in one piece!
Saturday 16 May 2009
Two Races, Three Bets
It was hugely frustrating to see our selection beaten by the smallest possible margin yesterday, but that's all part of the game and we'll take it in our stride. Throughout a long season enough will go our way so when they go against us we just have to take it on the chin.
Today we have bet in two races. Our first selection takes his chance in a maiden where we believe he is the clear form pick. As with yesterdays selection, this one is up against one or two potential improvers from powerful yards. As with yesterday, we will take form in the bag over potential, especially at the prices.
230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI 2 points each way at 7/2 (generally available inlcuding bog firms)
The selection has already proved that todays distance is not a problem, having run well twice previously at 12 furlongs including when not beaten far by the 3rd place finisher in last night's Glasgow Stakes. Most of todays rivals have yet to prove that this trip is within their range. Our view is that Shemoli is the most likely winner and a really solid each way selection.
The next race we spent time on is the opener on the card at Doncaster, where everything looks right for
600 Doncaster - RED WINE 2 points each way at 6/1 (generally available including bog firms), 13/2 in places
to run a big race. The underfoot conditions will suit the selection far more than many of the other runners in this race and the course and distance present no problems. Whilst there are a number of runners in both races we don't think either look overly competitive, therefore we have struck one final bet
230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI and 600 Doncaster - RED WINE 1 point each way double at 7/2 and 6/1 (both prices generally available inlcuding with bog firms)
Of course we know this game is never easy, recent results have proved that if ever we needed a reminder. As I said yesterday, even during this tough period we have got a hell of a lot right in terms of taking on short priced horses and getting them beat. Let's hope today that our analysis is correct and that so too are the final decisions regarding the horses we've backed.
Good luck if you play today.
Today we have bet in two races. Our first selection takes his chance in a maiden where we believe he is the clear form pick. As with yesterdays selection, this one is up against one or two potential improvers from powerful yards. As with yesterday, we will take form in the bag over potential, especially at the prices.
230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI 2 points each way at 7/2 (generally available inlcuding bog firms)
The selection has already proved that todays distance is not a problem, having run well twice previously at 12 furlongs including when not beaten far by the 3rd place finisher in last night's Glasgow Stakes. Most of todays rivals have yet to prove that this trip is within their range. Our view is that Shemoli is the most likely winner and a really solid each way selection.
The next race we spent time on is the opener on the card at Doncaster, where everything looks right for
600 Doncaster - RED WINE 2 points each way at 6/1 (generally available including bog firms), 13/2 in places
to run a big race. The underfoot conditions will suit the selection far more than many of the other runners in this race and the course and distance present no problems. Whilst there are a number of runners in both races we don't think either look overly competitive, therefore we have struck one final bet
230 Thirsk - SHEMOLI and 600 Doncaster - RED WINE 1 point each way double at 7/2 and 6/1 (both prices generally available inlcuding with bog firms)
Of course we know this game is never easy, recent results have proved that if ever we needed a reminder. As I said yesterday, even during this tough period we have got a hell of a lot right in terms of taking on short priced horses and getting them beat. Let's hope today that our analysis is correct and that so too are the final decisions regarding the horses we've backed.
Good luck if you play today.
Friday 15 May 2009
Which Do You Prefer?
We have bet in one race this evening, the 10 furlong Class 5 Maiden due off at 645pm. The front two in the market are unexposed and from powerful yards, but given the choice of backing either of them at 6/4 and 15/8 or backing our selection at around 4/1, well we think it's a no-brainer.
645 Newcastle - STANSTILL 2 points each way at 4/1 with Stan James (BOG)
Recently we have struggled to pick out the winners of races despite identifying something like 20 short priced horses to take on. All of those we've wanted to take on have been beaten and most of the winners appeared on our initial shortlists, we just decided not to back them in the end for one reason or another. My point is that despite a poor run of results the analysis continues to be accurate and we are both confident that we'll soon be back in the winners enclosure. Our bet this evening is, we believe, the clear form pick in a race where not too many can be given a serious chance. At the prices we have to get involved.
Good luck if you play.
645 Newcastle - STANSTILL 2 points each way at 4/1 with Stan James (BOG)
Recently we have struggled to pick out the winners of races despite identifying something like 20 short priced horses to take on. All of those we've wanted to take on have been beaten and most of the winners appeared on our initial shortlists, we just decided not to back them in the end for one reason or another. My point is that despite a poor run of results the analysis continues to be accurate and we are both confident that we'll soon be back in the winners enclosure. Our bet this evening is, we believe, the clear form pick in a race where not too many can be given a serious chance. At the prices we have to get involved.
Good luck if you play.
Thursday 14 May 2009
7.25 Newmarket
We have decided to bet in this race because we feel there are reasons for taking on those at the front of the market. If you can take out one or two at the front end then you should obtain value about anything you back and that’s the way we see things.
Dona Alba –
An eye catching run last time out, finishing 3rd at Epsom in a Class 2 Event. Three of today’s rivals behind that day but she arguably got the run of the race and that was on good ground. She seems to run well in decent races without winning. One of today’s rivals is 6lb better off for 5 lengths having got no real run in that race. If you fancy this one at 2/1 then surely you should consider the other at eight times the price! The trainer had just one winner at the course last year from 24 runners and hasn’t had a winner here over 10 furlongs in the last five years from 24 runners. Dona Alba won a 10 furlong event at Leicester on good ground and now races off a 7lb higher mark on good to firm ground. Yes, she has run well in some good races but at the price we have to oppose.
Bandama –
Has run well fresh in the past, but has never won on his first run of the season. The trainer has just one win at the course in May from 23 runners and is 0/12 at the course with six year olds. We think Bandama possibly needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap and may be better suited by a return to 12 furlongs. Interesting that Ryan Moore has ridden this one for two of its three wins. Perhaps we should look out for this one a little way down the road over 12 furlongs with Moore back on board.
Kavachi –
The first of two runners trained by G Moore and this one has Ryan booked to ride. Everything looks set for this one to run a big race, but we’re not convinced. The jockey is 0/5 on Kavachi and at the price we prefer to look elsewhere.
Seeking The Buck –
If you look through his form you can make a case for him upsetting one or two here at a big price. However, he hasn’t been seen for two years and we can’t back horses with his profile.
Kaleo –
Trainer not in great form, 0/13 this year so far and 0/14 at this course overall. Kaleo has run just once on turf in the UK and has a 6lb pull at the weights for finishing behind today’s favourite in the aforementioned race at Epsom. Whilst we feel this one’s price is more realistic than that of the favourite, we still cannot back him until he has shown a lot more.
Mega Watt –
Whilst Mega Watt has not run yet this season but if taking his place we think he’s an interesting runner. On balance we just think he might prove better at slightly less than 10 furlongs in this grade.
That leaves us with two remaining contenders and we have backed them both.
725 Newmarket – GOODWOOD STARLIGHT 1 point win at 25/1 Stan James, 20/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365 (generally available at 16's)
725 Newmarket – SERIOUS CHOICE 2 point win at 8/1 available with Blue Square & 888 Sport (7/1 generally)
The first is the second in this race trained by G Moore. No doubt many will see this as a “no hoper” with Ryan booked for the shorter priced of their runners. However, we’ve looked through the form of GS and we can’t leave him out. The ground and trip are no problem for him, he’s racing off just 2lb above his last winning mark and if his form follows the same pattern this year as it did last, well we think he could go close at a massive price. Last year he had a pipe-opener before hitting form in his second, third and fourth runs, winning two of them and an unlucky loser in another. He could prove to be better handicapped than many his rivals today. Finally for him, if no-one else wants to make the running then he could get a soft lead.
Serious Choice will be over-looked by many because he doesn’t have the sexy profile of some of those at the front of the market. What we know for sure is that he has won on good to firm ground and over 10 furlongs. His win last time out has been franked by the second and fourth winning since. Both won off higher marks than they were racing off when finishing behind SC and one of those victories was up in class at a grade one track. Many will notice that the G Moore / Ryan Moore combination have a 28% strike rate this year, but how many will pick up on the fact that J Boyle and Jack Mitchell have a 35% strike rate over the last four seasons?
Of course we could be proved wrong with all of the above but at the prices we’re happy to take our chance. Good luck if you play.
Dona Alba –
An eye catching run last time out, finishing 3rd at Epsom in a Class 2 Event. Three of today’s rivals behind that day but she arguably got the run of the race and that was on good ground. She seems to run well in decent races without winning. One of today’s rivals is 6lb better off for 5 lengths having got no real run in that race. If you fancy this one at 2/1 then surely you should consider the other at eight times the price! The trainer had just one winner at the course last year from 24 runners and hasn’t had a winner here over 10 furlongs in the last five years from 24 runners. Dona Alba won a 10 furlong event at Leicester on good ground and now races off a 7lb higher mark on good to firm ground. Yes, she has run well in some good races but at the price we have to oppose.
Bandama –
Has run well fresh in the past, but has never won on his first run of the season. The trainer has just one win at the course in May from 23 runners and is 0/12 at the course with six year olds. We think Bandama possibly needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap and may be better suited by a return to 12 furlongs. Interesting that Ryan Moore has ridden this one for two of its three wins. Perhaps we should look out for this one a little way down the road over 12 furlongs with Moore back on board.
Kavachi –
The first of two runners trained by G Moore and this one has Ryan booked to ride. Everything looks set for this one to run a big race, but we’re not convinced. The jockey is 0/5 on Kavachi and at the price we prefer to look elsewhere.
Seeking The Buck –
If you look through his form you can make a case for him upsetting one or two here at a big price. However, he hasn’t been seen for two years and we can’t back horses with his profile.
Kaleo –
Trainer not in great form, 0/13 this year so far and 0/14 at this course overall. Kaleo has run just once on turf in the UK and has a 6lb pull at the weights for finishing behind today’s favourite in the aforementioned race at Epsom. Whilst we feel this one’s price is more realistic than that of the favourite, we still cannot back him until he has shown a lot more.
Mega Watt –
Whilst Mega Watt has not run yet this season but if taking his place we think he’s an interesting runner. On balance we just think he might prove better at slightly less than 10 furlongs in this grade.
That leaves us with two remaining contenders and we have backed them both.
725 Newmarket – GOODWOOD STARLIGHT 1 point win at 25/1 Stan James, 20/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365 (generally available at 16's)
725 Newmarket – SERIOUS CHOICE 2 point win at 8/1 available with Blue Square & 888 Sport (7/1 generally)
The first is the second in this race trained by G Moore. No doubt many will see this as a “no hoper” with Ryan booked for the shorter priced of their runners. However, we’ve looked through the form of GS and we can’t leave him out. The ground and trip are no problem for him, he’s racing off just 2lb above his last winning mark and if his form follows the same pattern this year as it did last, well we think he could go close at a massive price. Last year he had a pipe-opener before hitting form in his second, third and fourth runs, winning two of them and an unlucky loser in another. He could prove to be better handicapped than many his rivals today. Finally for him, if no-one else wants to make the running then he could get a soft lead.
Serious Choice will be over-looked by many because he doesn’t have the sexy profile of some of those at the front of the market. What we know for sure is that he has won on good to firm ground and over 10 furlongs. His win last time out has been franked by the second and fourth winning since. Both won off higher marks than they were racing off when finishing behind SC and one of those victories was up in class at a grade one track. Many will notice that the G Moore / Ryan Moore combination have a 28% strike rate this year, but how many will pick up on the fact that J Boyle and Jack Mitchell have a 35% strike rate over the last four seasons?
Of course we could be proved wrong with all of the above but at the prices we’re happy to take our chance. Good luck if you play.
York And Newmarket
Looking back briefly at yesterday and our selection at York, of course it was disappointing that we didn't back the winner. However, despite that we got a fair bit right with our shortlist providing the 1st, 3rd and 4th. We think the way we staked our bet was correct as well. Staking as we did ensured the loss was only ever going to be the minimum 1 point and we were happy to take the risk. In future there will be more of a mixture of win, split stake and each way bets than there has been in the past. We believe that will help us to maximise profits, if ever we find another winner!
Some good racing on offer today. The second day of the York meeting throws up the Dante Stakes as the highlight. For us there's no bet this afternoon but every chance that we will be getting involved this evening at Newmarket. We've identified a race in which we believe there are valid reasons for taking on one or two at the front of the market. We just want to be sure that conditions remain ideal before we get involved, so we'll hang fire for now. One of us will be back on here with an update later this evening by approximately 6pm.
Some good racing on offer today. The second day of the York meeting throws up the Dante Stakes as the highlight. For us there's no bet this afternoon but every chance that we will be getting involved this evening at Newmarket. We've identified a race in which we believe there are valid reasons for taking on one or two at the front of the market. We just want to be sure that conditions remain ideal before we get involved, so we'll hang fire for now. One of us will be back on here with an update later this evening by approximately 6pm.
Wednesday 13 May 2009
3.45 York
Between us we have spent a lot of time on one race at York today. We do not think this is the most competitive 17 runner race there has ever been and with reasons to oppose some of those at the front of the market we feel compelled to have a bet.
Stand Guard – has shown nothing on turf to suggest he’ll be winning this off his current mark.
Rosbay – can be fancied on some pieces of form but has not won for two years and trainer form extremely off putting.
Spring Jim – this initially made our shortlist but we came to the conclusion that 10 furlongs is more his trip than the mile and a half he tackles today.
Dzesmin – made the shortlist for one of us but in the end dismissed because of the terrible draw.
Serious Impact – has to be on everyone’s shortlist with powerful connections, but if this horse is slowly away from the gates (drawn out wide) as he has been on his two career runs to date, then he’ll need to be a serious animal to come from last to first. If that happens then so be it, but at the prices and on what this has achieved to date we have to take it on.
Kingsdale Orion – good luck Koo, but we dismissed with doubts about the ground and the trainer’s form this year.
Wellington Square – not been seen out this year and doubts about the trip and not enough turf form to suggest a win is likely today.
King Fingal – another one which made it on to the shortlist for one of us but up in trip and class, looks well drawn although that could be a negative if held up and would be a surprise if good enough on first run of the year.
Overrule – made it on to both of our shortlists, but likely to be over-bet and under-priced and as already stated the trainer form this year is poor.
Cyborg – probably needs some juice in the ground.
Tres Froide – not run this year and no form to work with.
Mesbaah – not run this year and doesn’t look good enough to us.
Dazzling Light – still a maiden.
All In The Red – poor effort last time out, not good enough.
Gifted Leader – another maiden.
Smugglers Bay – not good enough and out of the handicap.
As you can see between us we came up with Spring Jim, Dzesmin, Overrule, King Fingal, the jolly and our selection between us on our initial shortlists. With reasons for opposing the first five of these we have decided to back
345 York – BIRKSIDE – 1 point win at 11/1 (with BOG firms), 12/1 elsewhere.
The selection won the race last year and is re-united with the same jockey today. That is significant in our opinion because the jockey usually rides for a trainer who saddles two of today’s other runners. Furthermore, the last really good performance put up by our selection was with today’s jockey on board. Birkside has obviously won over course and distance, he has won in the grade here and elsewhere off similar marks and the ground is fine for him. He needs to prove that he is back to somewhere near his best after a pipe opener last time out and may need a bit of luck in running from stall 12. If back to his best and able to get to a reasonable position at the start then we think he’s a massive price at double figure odds. Of course we don’t know for sure that he is back to his best, that is the reason we’ve just backed him with minimum stakes to win only.
The other races on the day looked competitve or had poor shapes to them and we decided to swerve them.
Good luck
Stand Guard – has shown nothing on turf to suggest he’ll be winning this off his current mark.
Rosbay – can be fancied on some pieces of form but has not won for two years and trainer form extremely off putting.
Spring Jim – this initially made our shortlist but we came to the conclusion that 10 furlongs is more his trip than the mile and a half he tackles today.
Dzesmin – made the shortlist for one of us but in the end dismissed because of the terrible draw.
Serious Impact – has to be on everyone’s shortlist with powerful connections, but if this horse is slowly away from the gates (drawn out wide) as he has been on his two career runs to date, then he’ll need to be a serious animal to come from last to first. If that happens then so be it, but at the prices and on what this has achieved to date we have to take it on.
Kingsdale Orion – good luck Koo, but we dismissed with doubts about the ground and the trainer’s form this year.
Wellington Square – not been seen out this year and doubts about the trip and not enough turf form to suggest a win is likely today.
King Fingal – another one which made it on to the shortlist for one of us but up in trip and class, looks well drawn although that could be a negative if held up and would be a surprise if good enough on first run of the year.
Overrule – made it on to both of our shortlists, but likely to be over-bet and under-priced and as already stated the trainer form this year is poor.
Cyborg – probably needs some juice in the ground.
Tres Froide – not run this year and no form to work with.
Mesbaah – not run this year and doesn’t look good enough to us.
Dazzling Light – still a maiden.
All In The Red – poor effort last time out, not good enough.
Gifted Leader – another maiden.
Smugglers Bay – not good enough and out of the handicap.
As you can see between us we came up with Spring Jim, Dzesmin, Overrule, King Fingal, the jolly and our selection between us on our initial shortlists. With reasons for opposing the first five of these we have decided to back
345 York – BIRKSIDE – 1 point win at 11/1 (with BOG firms), 12/1 elsewhere.
The selection won the race last year and is re-united with the same jockey today. That is significant in our opinion because the jockey usually rides for a trainer who saddles two of today’s other runners. Furthermore, the last really good performance put up by our selection was with today’s jockey on board. Birkside has obviously won over course and distance, he has won in the grade here and elsewhere off similar marks and the ground is fine for him. He needs to prove that he is back to somewhere near his best after a pipe opener last time out and may need a bit of luck in running from stall 12. If back to his best and able to get to a reasonable position at the start then we think he’s a massive price at double figure odds. Of course we don’t know for sure that he is back to his best, that is the reason we’ve just backed him with minimum stakes to win only.
The other races on the day looked competitve or had poor shapes to them and we decided to swerve them.
Good luck
Tuesday 12 May 2009
Beverley
We looked at a couple of races at Beverley today.
In the Class 4 Handicap over the extended mile, due off at 330pm, we came to the view that Handsome Falcon is the solid one and Nevada Desert could go well at a price. The bookies are giving nothing away with the prices on the former and the latter will probably just need the run. There are others which could go well but we felt there were valid reasons for opposing them. The jolly is up in trip and class and one or two others have a bad draw.
In the following race on the card we wanted to oppose the top one, High Office. We think the interesting one here is Mons Calpe but again the bookies are not exactly being generous with the prices on offer.
As a result we have no bet today, just a couple of races to watch with interest (although not a financial one).
Good luck if you play.
In the Class 4 Handicap over the extended mile, due off at 330pm, we came to the view that Handsome Falcon is the solid one and Nevada Desert could go well at a price. The bookies are giving nothing away with the prices on the former and the latter will probably just need the run. There are others which could go well but we felt there were valid reasons for opposing them. The jolly is up in trip and class and one or two others have a bad draw.
In the following race on the card we wanted to oppose the top one, High Office. We think the interesting one here is Mons Calpe but again the bookies are not exactly being generous with the prices on offer.
As a result we have no bet today, just a couple of races to watch with interest (although not a financial one).
Good luck if you play.
Monday 11 May 2009
5.30 Yarmouth
There is one bet so far for us today:
5.30 Yarmouth - 2PTS EW - Directors Chair (4/1 with Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Betfred)
The selection looks to be the solid selection in this race and is unexposed on turf after having only four runs to date. This has resulted in form figures of 2211 and whilst it has had several other runs on the AW it is probably fair to say that it is a better horse on turf. It has won over C&D off a 3lb lower mark under the same conditions as today and also won last time out in a reasonable race at Doncaster again off the same mark under similar conditions. A 3lb rise is possibly not going to stop it today given the quality of the opposition.
The favourite comes from the Swinburn yard that has started the season well however he hasn't had a winner at Yarmouth in 32 previous attempts and that has to disuade us a little! General Tufto has improved a great deal on the AW over the winter but is 0-14 on turf, Locum's best from has been on the AW and there are doubts about the course with this one, Dinner Date looks relatively interesting however the trainer is 0-31 at Yarmouth which is off-putting, Dancing Jest may need the run and needs to progress, Agente Romano has been beaten in a claimer and looks to have its own ideas about the game, and Iceman George has a bit to find with the selection and appears to want more cut in the ground to be seen at its best.
All in all it will be extremely disappointing if Directors Chair isn't there or thereabouts and we believe it is worth a decent investment.
There may be a further bet this evening at Windsor and Mick will text anything through if thats the case.
Good luck
5.30 Yarmouth - 2PTS EW - Directors Chair (4/1 with Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Betfred)
The selection looks to be the solid selection in this race and is unexposed on turf after having only four runs to date. This has resulted in form figures of 2211 and whilst it has had several other runs on the AW it is probably fair to say that it is a better horse on turf. It has won over C&D off a 3lb lower mark under the same conditions as today and also won last time out in a reasonable race at Doncaster again off the same mark under similar conditions. A 3lb rise is possibly not going to stop it today given the quality of the opposition.
The favourite comes from the Swinburn yard that has started the season well however he hasn't had a winner at Yarmouth in 32 previous attempts and that has to disuade us a little! General Tufto has improved a great deal on the AW over the winter but is 0-14 on turf, Locum's best from has been on the AW and there are doubts about the course with this one, Dinner Date looks relatively interesting however the trainer is 0-31 at Yarmouth which is off-putting, Dancing Jest may need the run and needs to progress, Agente Romano has been beaten in a claimer and looks to have its own ideas about the game, and Iceman George has a bit to find with the selection and appears to want more cut in the ground to be seen at its best.
All in all it will be extremely disappointing if Directors Chair isn't there or thereabouts and we believe it is worth a decent investment.
There may be a further bet this evening at Windsor and Mick will text anything through if thats the case.
Good luck
Sunday 10 May 2009
Blog Bets (Posted On Here In Advance Of Racing)
I have been asked to show the results for bets posted on this blog in advance of racing so here goes:-
BLOG BETS
34 BETS
4 WINNERS
12 PLACED
PROFIT / LOSS +9.30 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 11.07%
As we have pointed out previously we've had a poor run of results recently but if this represents our worst case scenario then we'll take it.
Each week when we update the summaries we will include the "blog" bets as requested. Now we just need to get on with finding a few winners so the results, whichever way you view them, look a lot better and more importantly they make us a lot more money. Mind you, even though we think they're poor, they're still a whole lot better than most punters and a lot of expensive tipping services seem to be able to achieve.
Gags will be on here tomorrow if we're betting on Monday.
BLOG BETS
34 BETS
4 WINNERS
12 PLACED
PROFIT / LOSS +9.30 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 11.07%
As we have pointed out previously we've had a poor run of results recently but if this represents our worst case scenario then we'll take it.
Each week when we update the summaries we will include the "blog" bets as requested. Now we just need to get on with finding a few winners so the results, whichever way you view them, look a lot better and more importantly they make us a lot more money. Mind you, even though we think they're poor, they're still a whole lot better than most punters and a lot of expensive tipping services seem to be able to achieve.
Gags will be on here tomorrow if we're betting on Monday.
Time To Work Even Harder
Punting is all about making long term profits from backing selections at value prices. I think anyone with a history of making the game pay will agree with that. However, as with any results driven business there will be good times when everything rolls your way and there will be tough times when the opposite happens. Anyone who has been reading this blog for a while will know that I don't believe in the theory that luck plays a major part in our success or failure. I'm sure that luck will even itself out over any significant period.
It's clear to see that recently we've got it badly wrong with our selections. The good news is that 99% of the time we've been proved correct in wanting to play in the right races. We have identified horses to take on and they have almost all been beaten. Where we've got things wrong recently is in deciding how to oppose these horses. Too often we've gone for the wrong one of two or three on our shortlist of possible winners. That's not bad luck, that's poor decision making.
When things don't work out the way I'd like I have only one way of turning them around. That is to work even harder to put them right. There won't be any drastic changes to the way we do things. We will continue to try and identify horses at the front end of the market which we feel we can get beat. That part of what we do has to date been hugely successful and anyone laying the horses we've been keen to take on will be making a fortune. We simply need to get back to picking the right one with which to oppose these types. In the past I've used both each way and split stakes betting to make money but during the last few months our approach has concentrated on the former. Perhaps we will mix things up a little more in future, especially in races where we quite like a couple and they're available at value prices. That has to be better than picking the wrong one of the two doesn't it?
We've not made any progress on here in the last few weeks and that has unfortunately been the case with our paid experts as well. At the moment it seems that just as one source produces the business, another will have a nightmare. Still, it's better to tread water than to be losing bundles and I'm sure that it will all click in to place soon enough. As we've seen already this year, when things do go well the profits can grow very quickly. Importantly we are operating from a position of strength with thousands of pounds already won via our betting exploits so far this year.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
80 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (37%)
PROFIT / LOSS +41.11 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.34%
We have been asked to include the return on investment figures in our updates, hence the extra details above. With just over four months of the year gone this figure can change quite quickly and is best ignored, in our opinion, until we have a much larger sample of bets behind us. Anyway, it's there now and will be included each week for those who wish to keep an eye on it.
No flat racing today so a rare day off at the weekend. I'm going to enjoy the footie, the F1 race from Spain and spend a bit of time with the family before this evening getting stuck in to tomorrows cards. Meanwhile I'm sure Gags will be resting with his feet up after his little stroll yesterday!
It's clear to see that recently we've got it badly wrong with our selections. The good news is that 99% of the time we've been proved correct in wanting to play in the right races. We have identified horses to take on and they have almost all been beaten. Where we've got things wrong recently is in deciding how to oppose these horses. Too often we've gone for the wrong one of two or three on our shortlist of possible winners. That's not bad luck, that's poor decision making.
When things don't work out the way I'd like I have only one way of turning them around. That is to work even harder to put them right. There won't be any drastic changes to the way we do things. We will continue to try and identify horses at the front end of the market which we feel we can get beat. That part of what we do has to date been hugely successful and anyone laying the horses we've been keen to take on will be making a fortune. We simply need to get back to picking the right one with which to oppose these types. In the past I've used both each way and split stakes betting to make money but during the last few months our approach has concentrated on the former. Perhaps we will mix things up a little more in future, especially in races where we quite like a couple and they're available at value prices. That has to be better than picking the wrong one of the two doesn't it?
We've not made any progress on here in the last few weeks and that has unfortunately been the case with our paid experts as well. At the moment it seems that just as one source produces the business, another will have a nightmare. Still, it's better to tread water than to be losing bundles and I'm sure that it will all click in to place soon enough. As we've seen already this year, when things do go well the profits can grow very quickly. Importantly we are operating from a position of strength with thousands of pounds already won via our betting exploits so far this year.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
2 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
0 PLACED (0%)
PROFIT / LOSS -6 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
80 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (37%)
PROFIT / LOSS +41.11 POINTS
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 22.34%
We have been asked to include the return on investment figures in our updates, hence the extra details above. With just over four months of the year gone this figure can change quite quickly and is best ignored, in our opinion, until we have a much larger sample of bets behind us. Anyway, it's there now and will be included each week for those who wish to keep an eye on it.
No flat racing today so a rare day off at the weekend. I'm going to enjoy the footie, the F1 race from Spain and spend a bit of time with the family before this evening getting stuck in to tomorrows cards. Meanwhile I'm sure Gags will be resting with his feet up after his little stroll yesterday!
Saturday 9 May 2009
Nottingham
No great in depth analysis today as Gags is out on a marathon walk in an attempt to raise money for a good cause and I simply haven't got time myself.
Very quickly then, I take sole responsibility for this selection so if it all goes wrong you know who to blame! I am opposing two at the front of the market, one making its seasonal reappearance and the other I believe will prove better served by a return to the minimum trip. Our selection in what will hopefully not turn out to be the most competitive of events is
330 Nottingham - MAX ONE TWO THREE 2 points each way at 9/2 with Bet 365 and Hills (both BOG) and Corals.
The selection ran last time out in a decent enough five furlong event on rain softened ground at Newbury, staying on nicely at the finish after not enjoying the clearest of passages. Previously she ran an encouraging race on her first appearance of the year in a 6 furlong Listed race at Newmarket. That race was run on decent ground and they produced a quickish time. I think the selection has every chance today and at the prices she represents the value as far as I am concerned.
I'm off to have a look at the evening cards and will update on here later if I find anything worthy of an investment.
Good luck if you play today.
Very quickly then, I take sole responsibility for this selection so if it all goes wrong you know who to blame! I am opposing two at the front of the market, one making its seasonal reappearance and the other I believe will prove better served by a return to the minimum trip. Our selection in what will hopefully not turn out to be the most competitive of events is
330 Nottingham - MAX ONE TWO THREE 2 points each way at 9/2 with Bet 365 and Hills (both BOG) and Corals.
The selection ran last time out in a decent enough five furlong event on rain softened ground at Newbury, staying on nicely at the finish after not enjoying the clearest of passages. Previously she ran an encouraging race on her first appearance of the year in a 6 furlong Listed race at Newmarket. That race was run on decent ground and they produced a quickish time. I think the selection has every chance today and at the prices she represents the value as far as I am concerned.
I'm off to have a look at the evening cards and will update on here later if I find anything worthy of an investment.
Good luck if you play today.
Friday 8 May 2009
1.35 Lingfield
There is one bet for us today so far.
1.35 Lingfield - Glencalvie (available at 12/1 with Tote, Stan James, Betfred & Hills, 11/1 Bet365, generally 10/1)
We were keen to get involved in this race as we feel that the favourite is likely to be overbet and underpriced. Whilst it comes from a powerful yard and has top connections, the form it has shown to date is nothing special and on its first attempt at the course and more importantly the surface, we feel that at 2/1 this has to be opposed. The horse we both like is Glencalvie and whilst it is unlikely to be improving at the age of 9, it has dropped to its lowest mark since 2004 and has won over C&D off higher marks of 71 and 72 in the past, with the former being as recently as June last year. The key to this horse seems to be the way that it is ridden and all of its best runs have coincided with when the horse has been ridden prominently and/or made the running and from stall 2 we expect it to get to the front or just behind the pace and hopefully get the run of the race. It's record over C&D from a mark upto 6lb higher than today's is 33171 and there were valid reasons for the unplaced effort as it was held up on that occasion. There are other possible prominent runners such as April Fool, however this is drawn in 12 and will have to be rushed up to get the lead. We don't believe that Glencalvie needs to lead, it just needs to be prominent and with a whole host of hold up horses in the race it could just play into the selections hands. Of the rest Sew 'N' So Character has some decent form if you go back far enough, Phai Mai Blue is quite interesting and Pension Policy has bits and pieces of form to put it in the shake up, although the trainers AW record hardly inspires. Aggravation looks plenty short enough for a horse yet to win off this mark round here and the rest look much of a muchness. I think we can ignore Glencalvie's last few runs which have been at Kempton (a track where it has only finished placed once from 6 starts) and back on todays course with a positive jockey booking (1 from 4 with one placed for trainer over C & D) then at double figure prices this is worth a small stakes bet.
There were a couple of favourites which we were keen to oppose but we couldn't find anything solid enough against them. We have put these up in trading places on the righthand side of the blog and may look to take a few quid out of them later on.
Good Luck!
1.35 Lingfield - Glencalvie (available at 12/1 with Tote, Stan James, Betfred & Hills, 11/1 Bet365, generally 10/1)
We were keen to get involved in this race as we feel that the favourite is likely to be overbet and underpriced. Whilst it comes from a powerful yard and has top connections, the form it has shown to date is nothing special and on its first attempt at the course and more importantly the surface, we feel that at 2/1 this has to be opposed. The horse we both like is Glencalvie and whilst it is unlikely to be improving at the age of 9, it has dropped to its lowest mark since 2004 and has won over C&D off higher marks of 71 and 72 in the past, with the former being as recently as June last year. The key to this horse seems to be the way that it is ridden and all of its best runs have coincided with when the horse has been ridden prominently and/or made the running and from stall 2 we expect it to get to the front or just behind the pace and hopefully get the run of the race. It's record over C&D from a mark upto 6lb higher than today's is 33171 and there were valid reasons for the unplaced effort as it was held up on that occasion. There are other possible prominent runners such as April Fool, however this is drawn in 12 and will have to be rushed up to get the lead. We don't believe that Glencalvie needs to lead, it just needs to be prominent and with a whole host of hold up horses in the race it could just play into the selections hands. Of the rest Sew 'N' So Character has some decent form if you go back far enough, Phai Mai Blue is quite interesting and Pension Policy has bits and pieces of form to put it in the shake up, although the trainers AW record hardly inspires. Aggravation looks plenty short enough for a horse yet to win off this mark round here and the rest look much of a muchness. I think we can ignore Glencalvie's last few runs which have been at Kempton (a track where it has only finished placed once from 6 starts) and back on todays course with a positive jockey booking (1 from 4 with one placed for trainer over C & D) then at double figure prices this is worth a small stakes bet.
There were a couple of favourites which we were keen to oppose but we couldn't find anything solid enough against them. We have put these up in trading places on the righthand side of the blog and may look to take a few quid out of them later on.
Good Luck!
Thursday 7 May 2009
Another Tricky Day At Chester!
Todays card at Chester has a similar look to yesterdays in that there are a number of trappy looking handicaps and a few 3 year old races where it is hard to get an accurate handle on how some of these horses have wintered and improved. Not really the kind of races we feel offer suitable betting opportunities and unfortunately we have drawn a blank as far as account bets are concerned.
We spent quite a bit of time on the 3.15 at Chester and we were both of the opinion that from the worst draw and on the back of a fillies maiden win in an average time, Stoutes Cheveley Park owned runner, RESORT, was one to take on at the likely prices. The two that we felt were overpriced and could possibly cause an upset were FOUNDATION ROOM and VIVA RONALDO. These are both available at decent double figure odds and both have pieces of form in the book which make us believe that they could belie their current odds. Too speculative to go on the account but there is a race of interest at Windsor later on this evening and if we find anything strong enough one of us will post up by 6pm.
Good Luck!
We spent quite a bit of time on the 3.15 at Chester and we were both of the opinion that from the worst draw and on the back of a fillies maiden win in an average time, Stoutes Cheveley Park owned runner, RESORT, was one to take on at the likely prices. The two that we felt were overpriced and could possibly cause an upset were FOUNDATION ROOM and VIVA RONALDO. These are both available at decent double figure odds and both have pieces of form in the book which make us believe that they could belie their current odds. Too speculative to go on the account but there is a race of interest at Windsor later on this evening and if we find anything strong enough one of us will post up by 6pm.
Good Luck!
Wednesday 6 May 2009
All Eyes On Chester
Today sees the start of the Chester May Meeting, but from a punting point of view we think the opening day is very tough. With pretty poor fare on offer elsewhere it was easy enough to come to the "no bet today" conclusion.
Like many punters we spent a fair bit of time looking through the feature event, the Chester Cup. My record in this race is not great although I did have a decent each way bet on High and Mighty at 66/1 a few years ago. Unfortunately the Hills trained jolly got up late on and I only collected on the place part of the bet. A case of nearly but not quite good enough! Back to todays race and Gags and I have come up with two for you to consider in the race. Gags thinks Ajaan could go well at 14/1 and I reckon Gala Evening at 16/1 could run a decent race. So there you have our lucky pin picks for the big race, good luck if you are getting involved today.
One of us will be back on this evening or tomorrow. No bet today.
Like many punters we spent a fair bit of time looking through the feature event, the Chester Cup. My record in this race is not great although I did have a decent each way bet on High and Mighty at 66/1 a few years ago. Unfortunately the Hills trained jolly got up late on and I only collected on the place part of the bet. A case of nearly but not quite good enough! Back to todays race and Gags and I have come up with two for you to consider in the race. Gags thinks Ajaan could go well at 14/1 and I reckon Gala Evening at 16/1 could run a decent race. So there you have our lucky pin picks for the big race, good luck if you are getting involved today.
One of us will be back on this evening or tomorrow. No bet today.
Tuesday 5 May 2009
Tempted........
We were keen on one today in a race at Southwell but whilst we feel the horse is overpriced and will go well, we cannot dismiss enough of its rivals to put this up on the account. We have gone over the race numerous times and despite our best efforts we just cannot eliminate enough and therefore will just take a watching brief. There is one race of interest this evening, and we are quite keen on one, however with the ground conditions playing a major role at the course, and given the wet weather across the country, we will be monitoring it closely before making a final decision. One of us will be back on here by 6.30pm if there is anything to report.
Monday 4 May 2009
Whatever Happened To The Quality Racing?
Is it me or did we used to have quality racing on Bank Holidays? Todays cards look tough to me and with Gags being busy today it's an easy decision to pass up the opportunity for a full bet. I have had a small, very speculative each way double on a couple at decent prices and that sums it up for me. A day for very small stakes if you are getting involved at all.
One of us will be on here this evening or tomorrow if we are betting on Tuesday. Good luck if you are betting today.
One of us will be on here this evening or tomorrow if we are betting on Tuesday. Good luck if you are betting today.
Last Week
I'm in a bit of a hurry this morning but believe it or not I want to post up the weekly and year to date figures despite last week not being our finest in terms of results. I am determined that our bets and results will continue to be seen in full as planned at the outset. That means the blog will sometimes make for poor reading but we want everyone to see the ups and downs as we continue with our venture. There are too many blogs and websites out there where all you are shown are the winners and we won't turn this place in to another one the same.
The most disappointing thing for me is that two of our bets failed to run their race. One we could forgive as they went no pace but the other was a big let down. I don't mind losing, I know we're going to lose far more often than we win and I don't mind the fact that last week I increased how much I stake per point. A few winners will vindicate that decision and looking through our analysis we're not far away. On Saturday we looked at three races in detail and our analysis came up with two winners. Unfortunately we cleverly decided they weren't strong enough so we didn't back them. Then of course yesterday we spent a lot of time on one race and got so much right, apart from the bet failing to run its race! So it's been a crap weekend financially but we remain confident that our form study and analysis is still pretty much spot on. I've said to others in the past that form study and analysis are only part of the "job". Punters also have to decide when to bet, ie follow up what the analysis has produced, and when to keep their money in their pockets. One or two people have suggested to me that this part of the process is where you get lucky, by deciding to back the horses which win, and unlucky, by deciding to back those which lose and leaving alone the winners. I don't agree about the "luck" issue, for me it's simply a good or a bad decision. Unfortunately I've been guilty of making a few bad decisions lately, it's as simple as that.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
3 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
1 PLACED (33%)
PROFIT / LOSS -5.6 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
78 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +47.11 POINTS
With that done I'm off to see if there is anything worth getting involved with today.
The most disappointing thing for me is that two of our bets failed to run their race. One we could forgive as they went no pace but the other was a big let down. I don't mind losing, I know we're going to lose far more often than we win and I don't mind the fact that last week I increased how much I stake per point. A few winners will vindicate that decision and looking through our analysis we're not far away. On Saturday we looked at three races in detail and our analysis came up with two winners. Unfortunately we cleverly decided they weren't strong enough so we didn't back them. Then of course yesterday we spent a lot of time on one race and got so much right, apart from the bet failing to run its race! So it's been a crap weekend financially but we remain confident that our form study and analysis is still pretty much spot on. I've said to others in the past that form study and analysis are only part of the "job". Punters also have to decide when to bet, ie follow up what the analysis has produced, and when to keep their money in their pockets. One or two people have suggested to me that this part of the process is where you get lucky, by deciding to back the horses which win, and unlucky, by deciding to back those which lose and leaving alone the winners. I don't agree about the "luck" issue, for me it's simply a good or a bad decision. Unfortunately I've been guilty of making a few bad decisions lately, it's as simple as that.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
3 BETS
0 WINNERS (0%)
1 PLACED (33%)
PROFIT / LOSS -5.6 POINTS
YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY
78 BETS
15 WINNERS (19%)
30 PLACED (38%)
PROFIT / LOSS +47.11 POINTS
With that done I'm off to see if there is anything worth getting involved with today.
Sunday 3 May 2009
Sunny Salisbury
We have backed one horse so far today. Our selection runs in the Class 2 Handicap for 3 year olds over six furlongs. We don't often get involved in these types of races but we believe there are good reasons for playing today. Let's hope we're right and we haven't made a complete "horlicks" of things!
Dark Mischief - At the front of the market this looks to be a progressive colt from the H Candy yard, a winner last time out at Newmarket in what looked a decent enough race. Dark Mischief has been put up 9lb for that victory and whilst it was impressive enough we think it will have to improve again to win today. Of course he could easily do just that, but at the prices today we'll oppose him.
Cheviot - Ran well enough to finish second at Ripon on seasonal reappearance when sent off favourite. Up another 3lb and we think others will be finishing stronger today. We are also of the view that there should not be such a massive difference in price between this one and Timeteam. Our take on things is that Cheviot is too short and Timeteam is probably too big.
Global City - Hasn't been seen for 200 days. That last performance when winning at Lingfield over 6 furlongs in a quickish time needs to be improved upon to win today. A possible but racing off a 9lb higher mark and first time up for the season we'd rather be with something else today.
Installment - An interesting runner but we think this one might be better suited by a step up in trip rather than a move in the opposite direction. Another one making his seasonal reappearance.
Of the remainder we think Timeteam is possibly over priced and Ginobili deserves respect particularly in view of the trainers record in the race but our selection is
215 Salisbury - FELDAY 2 points each way at 11/2 with Hills (BOG on line), 5/1 with Sky Bet, Tote, Paddy Power (bog) and Boyle (bog)
Last year our selection was campaigned at 7 and then 8 furlongs. Our view is that the trip was too far and we're obviously hoping the drop back to 6 furlongs today will prove ideal. We know the horse has trained on, he was well backed on his reappearance from 9/1 in to 11/2 before travelling well and quickening nicely only to tire inside the final, seventh furlong in a Class 3 event at Newbury. Racing that day off 84 we think there's more to come at todays distance and if this horse ends up being rated in excess of 90, which we think he will, then some of todays rivals are going to struggle to give him weight today. At the prices available earlier today we were happy enough to get involved.
We'll post later if we're backing anything else.
EDIT POST RACE - Cue the abuse! Our selection has run an absolute stinker, simple as that. If there is a positive to take out of that race after we've done our dough it is that we were right to take on the jolly (unplaced at 6/4) and we were right that Timeteam (finished just in front of Cheviot, 2nd at 20/1) should have been shorter. Clearly we weren't alone in thinking Felday would run a big race, he was backed from 6/1 in to 7/2, but obvioulsy we were wrong. I hope something comes to light to explain the poor performance today. Whilst that wouldn't get us our money back it would at least mean we weren't as horrendously wrong with our analysis as it appears right now.
Dark Mischief - At the front of the market this looks to be a progressive colt from the H Candy yard, a winner last time out at Newmarket in what looked a decent enough race. Dark Mischief has been put up 9lb for that victory and whilst it was impressive enough we think it will have to improve again to win today. Of course he could easily do just that, but at the prices today we'll oppose him.
Cheviot - Ran well enough to finish second at Ripon on seasonal reappearance when sent off favourite. Up another 3lb and we think others will be finishing stronger today. We are also of the view that there should not be such a massive difference in price between this one and Timeteam. Our take on things is that Cheviot is too short and Timeteam is probably too big.
Global City - Hasn't been seen for 200 days. That last performance when winning at Lingfield over 6 furlongs in a quickish time needs to be improved upon to win today. A possible but racing off a 9lb higher mark and first time up for the season we'd rather be with something else today.
Installment - An interesting runner but we think this one might be better suited by a step up in trip rather than a move in the opposite direction. Another one making his seasonal reappearance.
Of the remainder we think Timeteam is possibly over priced and Ginobili deserves respect particularly in view of the trainers record in the race but our selection is
215 Salisbury - FELDAY 2 points each way at 11/2 with Hills (BOG on line), 5/1 with Sky Bet, Tote, Paddy Power (bog) and Boyle (bog)
Last year our selection was campaigned at 7 and then 8 furlongs. Our view is that the trip was too far and we're obviously hoping the drop back to 6 furlongs today will prove ideal. We know the horse has trained on, he was well backed on his reappearance from 9/1 in to 11/2 before travelling well and quickening nicely only to tire inside the final, seventh furlong in a Class 3 event at Newbury. Racing that day off 84 we think there's more to come at todays distance and if this horse ends up being rated in excess of 90, which we think he will, then some of todays rivals are going to struggle to give him weight today. At the prices available earlier today we were happy enough to get involved.
We'll post later if we're backing anything else.
EDIT POST RACE - Cue the abuse! Our selection has run an absolute stinker, simple as that. If there is a positive to take out of that race after we've done our dough it is that we were right to take on the jolly (unplaced at 6/4) and we were right that Timeteam (finished just in front of Cheviot, 2nd at 20/1) should have been shorter. Clearly we weren't alone in thinking Felday would run a big race, he was backed from 6/1 in to 7/2, but obvioulsy we were wrong. I hope something comes to light to explain the poor performance today. Whilst that wouldn't get us our money back it would at least mean we weren't as horrendously wrong with our analysis as it appears right now.
Saturday 2 May 2009
A Quiet Saturday
The first thing to say is that there's nothing strong enough for us to put up on the account. Four meetings and there are a number of interesting runners. We quite like the look of one at Goodwood from a form point of view, but the horse has run at the track three times without even being placed and that's enough to put us off. We spent a lot of time on the feature race at Thirsk. We don't think this race is as competitive as the numbers suggest, but even so we couldn't nail our mast to one runner. At Newmarket we concentrated on the opening race on the card but it just looks too competitive and we could argue a case for a number of the runners.
Finally we moved on to the evening race at Doncaster and the interesting race for us is the last on the card. Bearing in mind todays conditions we think one horse in here could be hugely over priced. We are not having a "proper" bet and on recent form no-one can fancy the horse in question, but if the last time out effort was simply a "blowing away the cobwebs" exercise and the trainer has got the horse back to anywhere near his best then the 40/1 with Bluesquare is miles too big. On old form, before an injury at Chester, Admiral would be a good thing in this race. As I've already said, you need to assume a lot if you want to give this one a chance, but this race doesn't look that great and we just thought we'd highlight one at a huge price that one or two of you might want to consider. I'm not one for worrying about the market too much, but with one of the owners of this horse known for liking to land a gamble every now and then I guess the market will be the best guide to this ones chances.
So despite some cracking cards and really good races it's a quiet day for us. No bet from us for the account but good luck if you do play.
Finally we moved on to the evening race at Doncaster and the interesting race for us is the last on the card. Bearing in mind todays conditions we think one horse in here could be hugely over priced. We are not having a "proper" bet and on recent form no-one can fancy the horse in question, but if the last time out effort was simply a "blowing away the cobwebs" exercise and the trainer has got the horse back to anywhere near his best then the 40/1 with Bluesquare is miles too big. On old form, before an injury at Chester, Admiral would be a good thing in this race. As I've already said, you need to assume a lot if you want to give this one a chance, but this race doesn't look that great and we just thought we'd highlight one at a huge price that one or two of you might want to consider. I'm not one for worrying about the market too much, but with one of the owners of this horse known for liking to land a gamble every now and then I guess the market will be the best guide to this ones chances.
So despite some cracking cards and really good races it's a quiet day for us. No bet from us for the account but good luck if you do play.
Friday 1 May 2009
Nothing Doing This Evening...
Apologies for the delay in posting, however there is nothing for us this evening. The horse we were keen on is not available to back at the right price and therefore happy to let it run.
Todays selection has ran a decent race and a small profit on the bet for us. The favourite has won well in the end, however taking these types on in the long term is a profitable strategy. There looks to be a few decent cards tomorrow including the Newmarket Guineas meeting and we will be having a good look to see if there are any suitable opportunities for us.
One of us will be back on here by lunchtime tomorrow if there is anything to report.
Todays selection has ran a decent race and a small profit on the bet for us. The favourite has won well in the end, however taking these types on in the long term is a profitable strategy. There looks to be a few decent cards tomorrow including the Newmarket Guineas meeting and we will be having a good look to see if there are any suitable opportunities for us.
One of us will be back on here by lunchtime tomorrow if there is anything to report.
First Bet Of The Month
There is definitely one bet for us at this stage and there are possibilities of further bets later on. The analysis for the race is shown below:
Bourse – Looks to have it to do from out of the handicap. We think Bourse will struggle to turn around form with two of today’s rivals from a race run over a furlong shorter at the track about a month ago.
Casino Night – Makes no appeal racing off 6lb higher than she’s won off. No wins from 5 course runs, in our opinion she would need a lot of rain to fall to give her a chance. Even then we would prefer others.
Celtic Change – Whilst this one has just one win to his name, off a 3lb lower mark, he has run some decent races and we think he’s a live contender today. Many will argue the last time out performance should make him the pick here and we can understand that, even if we don’t agree.
Cigalas – On what we’ve seen this cannot win today.
Golden Penny – Seems to produce its best on the all weather and not hard to oppose today.
Royal Amnesty – An interesting runner with a top jockey taking the ride. The horse has won at the venue but over much further. However, the facts are that this one last won on turf off a mark of 66 and today he has to race off 80. A prolific winner on the all weather but we’ll pass on this one until he shows he can be competitive off this sort of mark back on turf.
Sirvino – No doubt many will be getting stuck in to this one today. After winning last time out at Beverley having been well backed to do so this will be popular despite the rise in the handicap and the relatively short odds on offer. Our view is that of course the horse could win, but we feel he would possibly be better off stepping up in trip rather than down in trip at a sharp track. At the odds this is one of those we feel we have to take on.
Wind Star – The trainer / jockey combination has been pretty successful around here and this one can be given a chance off today’s mark. Our only real concern with this horse is that he has never won first time out before.
That brings us to our selection in this race:-
330 Musselburgh – WIND SHUFFLE 1 point each way at 7/1 with Bet 365 (BOG), Bet Fred and Ladbrokes.
The first point to make is that our selection finished behind one of today’s rivals, Celtic Change, last time out. However, we feel that our selection could come on more for that run and be better suited by the step up in trip today. Celtic Change has the visor fitted today but we’re not convinced that will have a positive effect and last but not least, our selection is more than twice the price of that rival. With the horse, trainer and jockey looking in decent form we felt we had to play at the odds available. There is some rain forecast for the area but our view is that it wouldn’t hinder our selection’s chances.
As has been pointed out by one or two people recently, we could be completely wrong and you may be better off getting a pin out and playing the game that way. Obviously we don’t think so and we remain convinced that what we do will pay dividends in the long term. Of course we would say that wouldn’t we?
We may be having other bets today. If that is the case then I’ll post the details on here a bit later.
Good luck if you play today.
Bourse – Looks to have it to do from out of the handicap. We think Bourse will struggle to turn around form with two of today’s rivals from a race run over a furlong shorter at the track about a month ago.
Casino Night – Makes no appeal racing off 6lb higher than she’s won off. No wins from 5 course runs, in our opinion she would need a lot of rain to fall to give her a chance. Even then we would prefer others.
Celtic Change – Whilst this one has just one win to his name, off a 3lb lower mark, he has run some decent races and we think he’s a live contender today. Many will argue the last time out performance should make him the pick here and we can understand that, even if we don’t agree.
Cigalas – On what we’ve seen this cannot win today.
Golden Penny – Seems to produce its best on the all weather and not hard to oppose today.
Royal Amnesty – An interesting runner with a top jockey taking the ride. The horse has won at the venue but over much further. However, the facts are that this one last won on turf off a mark of 66 and today he has to race off 80. A prolific winner on the all weather but we’ll pass on this one until he shows he can be competitive off this sort of mark back on turf.
Sirvino – No doubt many will be getting stuck in to this one today. After winning last time out at Beverley having been well backed to do so this will be popular despite the rise in the handicap and the relatively short odds on offer. Our view is that of course the horse could win, but we feel he would possibly be better off stepping up in trip rather than down in trip at a sharp track. At the odds this is one of those we feel we have to take on.
Wind Star – The trainer / jockey combination has been pretty successful around here and this one can be given a chance off today’s mark. Our only real concern with this horse is that he has never won first time out before.
That brings us to our selection in this race:-
330 Musselburgh – WIND SHUFFLE 1 point each way at 7/1 with Bet 365 (BOG), Bet Fred and Ladbrokes.
The first point to make is that our selection finished behind one of today’s rivals, Celtic Change, last time out. However, we feel that our selection could come on more for that run and be better suited by the step up in trip today. Celtic Change has the visor fitted today but we’re not convinced that will have a positive effect and last but not least, our selection is more than twice the price of that rival. With the horse, trainer and jockey looking in decent form we felt we had to play at the odds available. There is some rain forecast for the area but our view is that it wouldn’t hinder our selection’s chances.
As has been pointed out by one or two people recently, we could be completely wrong and you may be better off getting a pin out and playing the game that way. Obviously we don’t think so and we remain convinced that what we do will pay dividends in the long term. Of course we would say that wouldn’t we?
We may be having other bets today. If that is the case then I’ll post the details on here a bit later.
Good luck if you play today.
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